orioles

New York Yankees @ New York Mets

Well, the starters in the Chicago game obliged, but the pens spoilt the fun!

The Subway Series kicks off with what looks like a value bet available on the Yankees. Now, the Pinstripes are traditionally horribly over bet, but this year that would have you out in front. I say that only because the value usually lies in opposing them, but tonight I like Nova at the price.

Nova is surging and the Yanks are streaking, and better than 1.9 cannot be resisted here, even with the Mets hitting nicely and Niese pitching well. Niese has had some health problems and they may play here too.

Pick: Yankees @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

59-63 (-2.64pts)

Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs

Jackson and the Chi Sox are favoured here, but he struggles on the road, and against the Cubs (0-2, 8.44 ERA). Wells has been badly knocked about recently and with the weather, we have a totals line set up at 12.5.

This is normal with the forecast weather conditions, but these two pitchers should help.

The wind is out, and that means Over at Wrigley and for a little fun, I'm going to REALLY test that theory and go Over. The Cubbies love the long ball (33 home runs in June) and both of these pitchers had better make sure they don't leave it up.

RE-CHECK THE WIND DIRECTION BEFORE THE FIRST PITCH

It could be a bumpy ride!

Pick: Over 12.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

59-62 (-1.63pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles

Matusz is really struggling - he has lost velocity since his return from injury, and for a guy who was in the mid-90s, that was always going to be a bad sign. His control has also been awful. The Os seem to have decided to let him work it out in the majors, rather than dropping him out of the rotation, but it has been ugly.

Garcia has pitched well, with a couple of caveats: he gets clattered on the road, and moving him up is not a good sign, as he has struggled in similar situations this year. However, he should have enough for the slumping Os.

Unfortunately.

Pick: Cardinals @ 1.8 

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

58-62 (-2.44pts)

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

Lester and Hamels have been lights out of late and I have to go Under.

Last night, two pitchers I identified as weak, pitched like Cy Young contenders, making me look a right Charlie, so doubtless tonight will see an avalanche of runs.

L3, these two have put up:

Lester 1.00/2.45/.267 WHIP/ERA/OBP
Hamels 0.98/2.11/.256

Boston really are struggling with interleague play and plugging Ortiz in didn't spark the offense. He should sit tonight against the lefty. The Phillies are hitting just .237 vs. lefties L10.

Hamels is 5-2 with a 1.85 ERA in his last eight outings, and Lester is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Phillies. Hamels has a towering 1.74 ERA against the Bosox and has a shutdown bullpen at his back.

I mean, COME ON.

Pick: Under 7 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

58-62 (-2.44pts)

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

After Greinke collapsed like a pack of cards last night ...

"I just couldn't pitch any worse than I did," said Greinke, who surrendered seven earned runs in his shortest start in more than four years. "It was no one's fault but mine." Cheers, Zach ...

I should leave Totals, but I like tonight's game to go Over.

Lackey, although he has done ok in the past against the Phils, is a bum imo and Worley's peripherals aren't as encouraging as you might hope. He puts too many on, doesn't strike out enough batters and, because he tends not to keep the ball down, the long ball is never far away and he's teetering on the edge of getting hit hard.

Boston are shoehorning Big Papi into the lineup and shoving Gonzalez out to the fences in right and I have a feeling they may put up some runs tonight. Similarly, the Phils  can get to Lackey, so that should come together nicely.

Let's hope so.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 1.9

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

58-61 (-1.44pts)

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Yankees

This is a tough call: I like the Yankees, but not at the price. Betting the Unders at Yankee Stadium is always a challenge, but it looks the value.

If we look at the recent numbers for the pitchers:

Zack Greinke 1.09/4.66/.325 L3
Freddy Garcia 1.02/1.74/.253 L3

I like the fact that these stats would suggest not too many batters are reaching, and indeed these two have walked just 7 in a total of 40 IP L3. Greinke will need to maintain that form, because his numbers against the lineup are more worrying (.297/.371 Ave/OBP). For info, Garcia has .231/310.

I'll reluctantly go Under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

58-60 (-0.44pts)

*Just a note about the last game: everyone knows the wind direction at Wrigley is critical. If you were watching, you'll have noticed that the change in wind direction going into the second suddenly saw the ball leaping out and runs will get scored in bunches. There were innings of 4x3 and a 5 in the game.

This means a couple of things: pay attention to wind direction for the whole game (when it's out at Wrigley go Over) but also look for value betting a team that's behind, even if it's by a 3/4. There are trades and nice prices to be had if you're paying attention.

San Francisco @ Chicago Cubs

I don't like picking the Giants (top of the NL West - shows what I know!) because of their unpredictable hitting: they usually don't have any. Bottom in runs scored, 27th in average and OBP, they can look like batting is a foreign language.

However, Ryan Vogelsong is so strong off the mound, he's difficult to oppose. He has given up two runs or fewer in 10 of 11 starts, and has a 1.09/1.86 WHIP/ERA this season; so it's likely that if San Francisco can get any runs home, they'll win.

Davis, on the other hand, is 1-6 on the season with 1.69/5.01 WHIP/ERA and is 5-9 with a 4.60 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts) against San Francisco in his career, and the Cubs' bullpen is creaking badly.

I'll reluctantly roll with Vogelsong and the Giants' winning streak.

Pick: Giants @ 1.8

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

57-60 (-1.24pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays

These two pitchers have nice stuff. I particularly like Hellickson, who has only allowed more than three earned runs once over his last 10 outings and is much better than 7-6 and is coming off two quality starts*. Leake has been brutal since coming back up (2.85 ERA in six starts - 0.76/3.00 L3).

The Rays are swinging a hot stick and the Reds have plenty of offensive potential too, but at I'll go Under at the Trop with these two toeing the rubber.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

56-60 (-2.15pts)

*I know there's a couple of people who read this blog, who aren't regular baseball watchers so ... In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.(wiki paste)

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

Chacin has been strong L3 and looks the straightforward value pick here.

Chicago has one win in its last eight against Colorado, and has lost four of five against the Rockies this season. Chacin has already beaten them this term.

Garza has not done well against Colorado in the past, so I'll keep it simple.

Pick: Rockies @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

56-59 (-1.15pts)

Cleveland Indians @ San Francisco Giants

My loyal reader (hello granny) will know I hate the Overs bet, and with neither of these teams tearing up trees at the plate, at first glance it would look ropey tonight too.

However, consider these figures L3 (season):

Bumgarner 1.72/7.42 (1.39/4.06)
Carmona 2.27/9.98 (1.40/5.98) 1-6 with a 9.24 ERA in his last seven starts.

The Giants' pen has been worked hard (Cleveland's will kill ya going Over!). Home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt is 11-4 O/U.

Even though it's AT&T, I'll take it on.

Pick: Over 7 @ 1.9 (totesport)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

56-58 (-0.15pts)