orioles

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Yankees

This is a tough call: I like the Yankees, but not at the price. Betting the Unders at Yankee Stadium is always a challenge, but it looks the value.

If we look at the recent numbers for the pitchers:

Zack Greinke 1.09/4.66/.325 L3
Freddy Garcia 1.02/1.74/.253 L3

I like the fact that these stats would suggest not too many batters are reaching, and indeed these two have walked just 7 in a total of 40 IP L3. Greinke will need to maintain that form, because his numbers against the lineup are more worrying (.297/.371 Ave/OBP). For info, Garcia has .231/310.

I'll reluctantly go Under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

58-60 (-0.44pts)

*Just a note about the last game: everyone knows the wind direction at Wrigley is critical. If you were watching, you'll have noticed that the change in wind direction going into the second suddenly saw the ball leaping out and runs will get scored in bunches. There were innings of 4x3 and a 5 in the game.

This means a couple of things: pay attention to wind direction for the whole game (when it's out at Wrigley go Over) but also look for value betting a team that's behind, even if it's by a 3/4. There are trades and nice prices to be had if you're paying attention.