orioles

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

There are a few factors that make Detroit the bet tonight: they own the Twins at the moment, having won their last 11 meetings; Penny has been solid enough L4 with a 3.38 ERA in his last four starts, going deep and winning his last three; Baker is 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA in two starts against Detroit this year, giving up five runs and five walks in 4 1-3 innings last time he pitched against them.

Baker is also coming off the DL - always a good time to oppose a pitcher.

Detroit look the value road dog.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.23

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

75-69 (+7.79pts)

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

One of today's pitchers is 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA L10; the other is 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in his last 10.

Nice. Mix that in with D.J. Reyburn umpiring at home plate (5/10 OU) and Angel Stadium ranking 25th in hitter-friendly parks and nothing terrifying on the weather map and it's an Unders call.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.91 (Corals)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

74-69 (+6.88pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets

Reyes stays!

Dickey is underrated and has a .257/.297/.314 line against tonight's Cards' hitters and 1.00/3.32 WHIP/ERA L3.

McClellan has been dinged up and hasn't produced since coming off the DL, going 0-4 with a 5.10 ERA in his last five starts and 1.61/6.51 L3.

The Reyes' news will lift the clubhouse and Dickey can get it done.

Pick: Mets @ 1.91 (Skybet)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

73-69 (+5.97pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

The Bucs look like they might be for real. Pittsburgh have owned Cincinnati this season and are 6-1 up, and beat them last night. The Reds' hurler in the one win? Tonight's Mike Leake, who has a .213 ERA against the Pirates.

The other man on the mound, James McDonald, has been knocked about by Cincinnati in the past, but he has been solid at home and I like the momentum.

Pittsburgh look the value.

Pick: Pirates @ 2.06

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

72-69 (+4.91pts)

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

I like the cut of Cobbs' jib.

The Yanks haven't seen him before and he put up nice numbers in the minors (5-1 with a 1.87 ERA in 12 starts). Cobb has pitched in the bigs and done ok and last night's marathon outing by the Rays may work for them - although it wasn't as close as the score suggests and Tampa pretend. My real concern would be the Rays' pen.

Burnett struggles with Tampa, he's 0-4 with a 7.83 ERA in his last five outings against them. He has issued 49 walks in 113.2 innings this season (always a bugbear of mine) and he's also prone to the occasional collapse. He's not a great 1.74 back.

New York know they need to step it up as the wildcard run firms up, but I like the home dog tonight at the price.

Pick: Rays @ 2.32

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

72-68 (+5.91pts)

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

The Red Sox are averaging 6.7 runs, batting .315 with runners in scoring position and hitting .298 overall while belting 27 homers in their last 13. That's not good news for Niemann who, although he has been solid since coming off the DL, and is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts in July, has allowed 22 hits and four walks in 16 1/3 innings.

The big worry for Boston is Beckett's health, but he seems ready to go and is devastating on the road, having gone 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 10 starts away from Fenway.

Despite my humiliation last time, I'm going to lay the runs again tonight. Some cappers recommend you NEVER lay the runs, but with road favourites who are this hot at the plate and an opposition pitcher putting people on, as well as a road pitcher who can dominate like Beckett (this Rays' lineup is hitting a collective .236 against him) then I think it is a valid bet.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

72-67 (+6.91pts)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies

Take the Overs in the Brewers/Rockies game - both of these pitchers have hideous numbers L3, Greinke stinks on the road, and it's Coors Field fer chrissakes!

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 1.95 (VC)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

71-67 (+5.96pts)

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

The Phils have started hitting, and with a rotation like theirs, that makes them an interesting look on the runline on the road tonight. The Mets are banged up on offence and have lost three in a row, managing just 5 runs at a .182 clip during the slump.

Hamels has the numbers on the road and has had success at Citi Field, where most recently he had 10 punch outs while giving up just two runs in seven innings.

Niese is no mug and is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in three starts versus Philadelphia this season; the problem is, he's unlikely to get much support tonight. He has walked too many at home in the past, but seems to have steadied that ship - nonetheless, I don't like his chances.

I'll take Philadelphia to win it by at least two.

Pick: Phils -1.5 @ 2.2

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto are ripping it up, but CC is terrifying at the moment, with a 0.85/0.00 WHIP/ERA L3.

Romero has been rather less inspiring recently, but his splits reveal he has been strong at home (1.07/2.75) and in his last three starts against the Yankees, including two this season, he has a 2.05 ERA; today's lineup is hitting .221 against him.

You take your life in your hands going Under at Rogers Centre, but that looks the value here.

Todd Tichenor might help [;)]

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

70-66 (+5.96pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Westbrook stinks, but I don't like the Reds at the moment and, although Cueto's numbers on the season look good, last time out he had a rocky ride.

Westbrook was even worse - he was taken deep three times, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits ... and all against the Reds.

It does not bode well.

This is not a game that inspires from a betting point of view, but given the struggles of the pitchers in their last games, the power the Cards can bring, and the shellacking the Reds have given Westbrook: I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.00 (Corals)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

69-66 (+4.96pts)