orioles

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

I'll take the Padres and the Overs in this game.

Niese has struggled of late (in his last three outings, he has given up 12 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings pitched, with an ERA of 7.04).

Luebke has rather better numbers, and I like rookie left handers first time through against teams. If he's going to lose (and it'll likely be the shaky bullpen that blows it) it should go Over, so that'll be the saver.

Pick: Padres @ 2.12
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

87-82 (+7.84pts)

Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals

Both these pitchers have been rocked recently, and both by tonight's opposition. Jackson was hit hard by the Brewers last Wednesday, giving up eight earned runs on 14 hits over seven innings: they put him over the wall four times! Marcum was similarly reached for six earned runs on seven hits in seven innings last time up.

Marcum has the stuff though; Milwaukee have won six of the nine matchups this season and at better than Evens, he looks the value on a team that is 11-1 L12 and hitting .313 during that run.

The Cards are hitting too, and even at Busch Stadium, I'll also take the Overs.

Pick: Brewers @ 2.1
Pick: Over 8 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

86-82 (+6.74pts)

Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins

I hate betting on knuckleballers - wind at their back, no movement on the ball: clattered. To make matters worse, Wakefield is 1-3 with an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts against the Twins and has lost the last two; but this lineup is hitting .267 lifetime against him, which is slightly more encouraging.

The Twins aren't hitting generally, and I have to hope they won't reignite tonight and Wakefield finally staggers over the 200 win mark.

I'll roll with the Twins' losing streak.

Pick: Red Sox @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

85-82 (+5.83pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Cueto has the NL's lowest ERA - although this lineup is hitting .306 against him.

Zambrano has pitched six innings and allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts for a 1.50/2.41 WHIP/ERA L3. He puts too many on (52 walks, 135.1 IP; 1.77 K/BB) but these Reds are only hitting .260 against him.

The price on Cueto is too short, although Cincinnati should take this, so I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

85-81 (+6.83pts)

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

If you don't buy Bedard in Boston (and I don't) then the tribe must be the value, particularly as Masterson has been so strong against his old team.

Effectively, Bedard is still rehabbing, so he won't go deep into the game and it's likely Miller will appear in long relief, and his numbers aren't great.

A straightforward pick, even when it's the juggernaut Bosox at home.

Pick: Indians @ 2.5

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

84-81 (+5.33pts)

"Every game we lose is embarrassing," manager Ozzie Guillen said. "I think you get to the point where it's like what's going to happen next."

No ****. Floyd was 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA in his previous three starts, and he gets lit up for 10 runs on nine hits in 2.1 innings?

What a day.

Anyway, onward and upwards!

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Once Penny throws his first pitch Thursday, he'll have a share of the highest total of day-game starts by a Tigers pitcher since 1974.

Well, well.

Not that his splits are any better when the sun's out. He got shelled last time out against the Angels and his peripherals are ordinary at best (4.51 ERA and 53:39 K:BB ratio in 123.2 innings) and opponents are hitting .337 against him over his last four starts. He's 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA over that stretch.

Alexi Ogando has owned the Tigers this season; they're hitting just .188 against him and he has beaten them at home and at Comerica already - but 1.6+ is too skinny. Even on the run line, only just better than Evens is on offer.

However, Ogando's numbers are so strong against this lineup and Penny can be reached for a few by the hard hitting Rangers (.315 vs righties L10) so I'll take the price on the road, even in the face of the respective streaks.

Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

83-81 (+4.23pts)

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

The Giants score 8? I should've bought a lottery ticket.

Anything can happen with Burnett on the mound; although in August, Burnett has lost at U.S. Cellular Field each of the last two years, giving up 16 runs over eight innings and he hasn't lasted 5 innings in either outing: so the portents aren't good! His numbers L3 aren't good either.

Gavin Floyd, on the other hand, has been ripping it up since the All-Star break, and has a 0.72/0.81 WHIP/ERA L3 - he's coming off a 3 hit outing against the Bosox bats. His splits though, reveal a less solid record at home, where he has a 1.27/5.55 line.

It seems madness to back Burnett with his recent record (and both sleeping offenses I've opposed tonight have decided to put in season's best performances!) but with the cold Chisox bats and Konerko still missing, I'm going to favour the pinstripes in this one and, with Brian Runge at home plate and Floyd pitching so well, I'll go Under too.

Pick: Yankees @ 1.94
Pick: Under 9 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

82-80 (+4.32pts)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

Well, betting the streak worked a treat in the early game! Usually, teams on losing streaks find a way to blow it, but well ...

Wang was actually doing OK, until that bizarre error he made on the throw to 1st that extended the innings and then Uggla went deep for a three run homer: you just can't give extra outs in the bigs!

Anyway, I'm going to do it again!

It's a bit less of a leap of faith with Jason Marquis, who has nice numbers L3, and has a strong record against the Giants (5-3, 2.47 ERA).

The fly in the ointment is Ryan Vogelsong, who has pitched beautifully this season (8-1, 2.23 ERA) but the Giants' offense is really spluttering and at the price, I like the Diamondbacks to take a close one.

Pick: Diamondbacks @ 2.40

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

Chien-Ming Wang has emerged from the wilderness and his first start back in the bigs was shaky at best - his numbers don't inspire, but he had some stuff once. Beachy was strong last time out, but Washington are hitting .326 during their four-game winning streak.

I'm going to bet the respective streaks here and besides, I can't resist the price on a surging Nats team that has had the sign over the Braves for some time now.

Pick: Nationals @ 2.47

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

82-78 (+6.32pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

This is where the rubber meets the road in the divisional race for these teams: and the Brew Crew look up for the challenge.

The streaking Brewers send Shaun Marcum to the mound - he's 3-0 L3, with a 1.06/3.00 WHIP/ERA. Nice.

He'll be facing off against a St Louis team that has fallen off the pace, but a pitcher in Jaime Garcia who threw a shutout the last time he faced Milwaukee. Garcia has a 1.23/2.66 line L3, but has had a rough time of it in Miller Park and carries 1-1 7.20 ERA record into tonight's game: his last outing against the Astros was also poor.

1.8+ is about as skinny as I'd like to go, but I like the Brewers here and, despite some solid pitching, I like the Overs too; both these pitchers' splits suggest they could give up a couple - Garcia struggles on the road (1.54/4.74) and Marcum has 1.21/4.23 line at home against what is still a dangerous Cards' offense.

Pick: Brewers @ 1.83
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

81-77 (+6.41pts)