orioles

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

Williams and Matusz; two pitchers emerging from the wilderness, or at least Triple-A Salt Lake and Norfolk respectively.

Williams has been wandering rather longer and further than Matusz and arrives with a 7-2 record in 11 games (3.91 ERA) in Salt Lake.

Matusz went 1-4 with an 8.77 ERA in six starts in June, and was sent down. He was recalled on Tuesday, and promptly gave up six runs in an 8-4 loss in Oakland.

The O's are at least doing OK at the plate (.306 v righties L10) and the Angels are hitting .400 against Matusz with an eye-watering 1.032 OPS.

Kerwin Danley has a 14/10 record behind home plate (8/1/1 L10).

Anaheim is not usually a place to go Over, but with these two toeing the rubber, it looks the bet.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

92-91(+4.33pts)

Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox

Danks has made progress second half, whereas Ogando blazed away first half but now looks like he's wearing down. So the better than Evens on the Sox looks value.

Ogando is 5-5 with a 5.03 ERA since June 9, and has a 10.00 ERA in his last two outings. Danks is 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA over the same stretch.

It looks a no-brainer, but Ogando blew the Chisox away when they last met and Chicago are in the dreaded three game losing streak. Danks also puts a few too many on, however, I'm not taking 1.77 on a tiring Ogando.

Johnny be good.

Pick: White Sox @ 2.2

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Morton has rediscovered his sinker ball and heads into tonight with a 0.99/0.40 WHIP/ERA L3. He is also 3-0 against Cincinnati in 2011, limiting the Reds to one run in 23 innings. Pittsburgh have taken six of the last eight against Cincinnati this season.

Willis hasn't fared so well and got battered last time out after feeling a twinge during warm-ups. He is 1.38/4.86 WHIP/ERA L3 and this lineup is hitting .329/.405/.562 against him with a .966 OPS.

Pittsburgh have fallen away in the second half, which is a great shame, and the Reds have some power, but I like the home team to take this one.

Pick: Pirates @ 1.93

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

90-91(+2.20pts)

Go Cubs go, go Cubs go
Hey, Chicago whaddya say?
CUBS ARE GONNA WIN TODAY!

St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

If I predicted no aliens would land in centre field in this one, Vulcans would be strolling on Wrigley by the bottom of the second, telling Marlon Byrd to "Live long and prosper." I wish I could blame the run on the fact that these are forced picks, but to be honest, my regular bets haven't fared too much better - I was 34 points up 3 weeks ago and I'm just better than half that now.

Anyway, this afternoon's game.

Both pitchers have put up shaky numbers L3, although Wells has won three of his past four, including a five-inning, two-run effort against the Braves on Saturday. Garcia is the better pitcher, but his recent record has been decidedly poor, after starting the season strongly. The left hander is 1-3 over his past six starts and is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in August, with opponents hitting .349 against him: the Cubs are also hitting lefties hard.

However, he has had the Cubs' number, and is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts this season.

St Louis may have more to play for, but the Cubs are coming off a successful road trip and are 7-2 in their last 9 at home and 8-2 in their L10 as the dog and will be keen to take the Cards down. 1.6+ is too short on Garcia, so I'll take the Cubbies.

I'll also go Over, because if these two pitchers are true to their numbers, there should be runs.

Pick: Cubs @ 2.44
Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.8 (Tote)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-91(-0.04pts)

LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

It's amazing how a losing run knocks your confidence: looking back at the Arizona game, the price on offer for a streaking team, at the head of their division, even against the Doc, was an obvious Back. It's an interesting part of gambling, but there's no doubt my mojo is wobbling!

This has some parallels with that Diamondbacks' game. Kershaw is an ace with 14 wins and eye-watering numbers and, although Estrada was excellent last time out, his emergence from the bullpen isn't filling me with joy.

I'll stick to the rules though, and bet the streaks: the Dodgers have lost their last three and the Brewers are on a six game tear.

The streaking home dog is the bet.

Pick: Brewers @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-90(+0.96pts)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

A mouth-watering game.

Josh Collmenter has a 7.08 ERA over his last four road outings, and faces a Phillies offense that is heating up. The Phillies are also 21-8 vs. the NL West this season: the only team who have bested them so far? The Diamondbacks.

Halladay is as strong as ever, although this Arizona lineup is hitting .267 against him and Upton is on a tear.

I like the look of Over 7.5 here; the Phillies can knock Collmenter about and if the D'backs can get a couple off Halladay, I may avoid the aneurysm my run of luck is on the verge of triggering.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-89 (+1.96pts)

Milwaukee go 1-10 RISP and I'm 50% on the live TV games. There is no God

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Both these pitchers have been giving up runs.

Capuano is good for a long ball and has a 1.56/6.23 WHIP/ERA L3.

Marquis has also been poor of late, with an even worse 2.21/9.00 WHIP/ERA L3. He has also fallen prey to giving up homers. Worryingly, he has been knocked about by teams hardly known for their power offense. There has been some indication that he's been on the end of some bad luck, but the Mets are hitting righties at .266 L10 and tonight's lineup is hitting north of .300 against him.

Jason Bay has 5 homers in 43 at bats against Marquis and is available at 11/1 to go yard tonight for a little added spice.

I'll reluctantly go Over.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-88 (+2.96pts)

Weaver was 8-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last 14 starts and the most he had given up in a game L10 was 3 earned runs!

Ouch.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

This goes Over.

Correia 2.07/8.36
Estrada 1.25/4.91 WHIP/ERA L3.

Miller Park favours hitters and John Hirschbeck is 11/6 O/U when he's behind home plate.

The Bucs look like they've run out of steam and the Brewers have won 10 in a row against them, added to which, Pittsburgh have placed Lee on the DL today.

Correia is 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA against Milwaukee. Estrada got rocked in one game and that has distorted his numbers somewhat, but he's not a pitcher with any real stuff.

Milwaukee have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Cards and I need them to tee off on the Pirates .

I'm desperate, Dan.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Brewers -1.5 @ 2.25

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-86 (+4.96pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays

Both of these pitchers have great numbers, but Weaver has won his last 5 starts against the Blue Jays, collecting a 0.74/1.66 WHIP/ERA in the process.

Romero one hit the Rays last time out and has 0.66/1.11 WHIP/ERA line L3. He is 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA in four career starts against Los Angeles, giving up two runs or fewer in three of them. Interestingly, his day splits are a little weaker.

I'll take the Halos to edge this one in a low scoring game.

Pick: Angels @ 1.83
Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-84 (+6.96pts)

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Justin Verlander:

• 1st in AL in W (16)
• 1st in AL in IP (188.0)
• 1st in AL in SO (186)
• 3rd in AL in ERA (2.30)
• 1st in AL in WHIP (0.87)
• 1st in AL in W% (.762)

Yikes. Opposing this guy may be lunacy; he goes deep, strikes out batters and he wins ... a lot. However, Verlander is 4-8 with a 6.31 ERA in 13 career starts in Cleveland.

The acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez has put a charge into the Tribe and they are bearing down on the Tigers. Carmona hasn't had a great season, but he too is finding some form and has a 1.17/2.75 WHIP/ERA line L3.

I'll take the price on the Cleveland charge.

Pick: Indians @ 2.65

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

88-83 (+7.96pts)