orioles

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

The defending Super Bowl Champions have won the last 11 opening games, dropping only two ATS.

Green Bay should have too much for the Saints tonight too.

The Pack have their usual array of threats, plus Finley and Ryan Grant, and with the form Rodgers is already showing, there should be plenty of opportunities to spread the love. Will Smith is suspended for the Saints which compromises the pass rush, although the Saints are no slouches, but even so, this is Rodgers we're talking about.

Brees is almost as capable, but the Pack have a more aggressive pass D and Lance Moore is out, with Colston carrying a dodgy knee. Brees has had interception issues, and he's going to have to throw a lot to keep pace with a Packers' O that should keep the scoreboard ticking over; with Woodson and Williams on the corners, that could see him turn it over.

I like the look of Jermichael Finley matching up on the New Orleans' safety Roman Harper, who often struggles in coverage. Rodgers will want Finley involved early in the season to get him rolling, so I expect him to get looks in the redzone.

Pick: Packers -4.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Anytime TD Finley @ 2.25

Written on my iPad, on the road!

I’ll start where my interest lies ...

NFC East

My team, the Redskins, will finish last, but it’s not all bad news. Unencumbered, in all senses, by Haynesworth, Shanny might just have some magic dust left, and while it isn’t going to be the Denver story quite yet, it won’t be as bad as some think.  The Skins under Grossman aren’t going to gash offences, but I like the look of Hightower (and his rookie back up) in the Mike/Kyle Shanahan zone blocking scheme and resigning Moss was huge. The defense was beginning to come together towards the end of last season.

Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62

The Giants looked horrible pre-season and I get the feeling this is it for Eli Manning – it’s not a career buster, so much as a career definer. There’s rebuilding on both sides of the ball and while the talented pass rush is going to be difficult to deny, I have reservations about the offense and if Bradshaw begins putting it on the floor again, Eli might buckle under the strain: they’re also riddled with injuries.

That means the division comes down to Dallas and Philadelphia.

I never like the whole ‘dream team’ shtick. That means a lot of battling egos and football doesn’t benefit from that kind of environment. I’m not entirely sold on their defense which is bursting with talent, but has to come together quickly.  Vick may struggle to reproduce his form last year (we saw a drop off as the season went on) and with his game, I always get the feeling disaster isn’t far away. Vince Young awaits.

Does that mean Dallas are in? Well, no. I don’t think they’ve enough depth on offense. Romo’s not a dynamic QB that outthinks the opposition in clutch situations: he needs help. The receiving corps has talent, but it’s thin and with a shaky O line, Romo may struggle. If Felix Jones and Tashard Choice can get it going, Dallas can challenge Philadelphia, but there too many unknowable unknowns that we just can’t know.

Pick: Eagles @ 1.91

NFC West

It’s St Louis and Arizona here. San Francisco and Seattle haven’t the firepower to be taken seriously as challengers. The 49ers haven’t got a QB (I’ve stashed Kaepernick in a couple of my fantasy leagues) and the Hawks let Hasselbeck split for the Titans.

I’m going to take Arizona – Kolb has the skill set (and the money!) to emerge as a genuine franchise QB. Beanie Wells’ elevation is no bad thing and Larry Fitzgerald leads a bunch of receivers who may be under-valued.

Most of all, it’s the strength of schedule that attracts me at the price. Arizona benefits from a fixture list that should mean they shade the Rams – and I like the price.

Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00

NFC North

Packers.

There’s talk of the Lions, and Stafford is a fine player, but he’s just too brittle – he’ll go down again. They will also develop their defense, but Green Bay will take the division.

The rest is a crap shoot, so there’s little value at this stage.

Pick: Packers @ 1.53

NFC South

The Bucs aren’t quite there yet and have a tough schedule. The same is true of the Panthers, only more so – they have an undeniably talented rookie under centre, and perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL.

So we’re left with the Saints and the Falcons. Atlanta aren’t going to stop much, but they should score a bucket load, as Ryan puts it up for White and his buddies 30+ times. It’s that first element though, that makes me think the Saints have the edge – just. New Orleans’ D was ranked 4th in the NFL and that, coupled with the explosive offense, should see them home.

Pick: Saints @ 2.38
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5

AFC East

Neither Miami nor Buffalo have the quarterback power to compete, so that leaves New England and the New York Jets.

New England, if they can successfully tame some of the more challenging characters they have recruited, can address their only obvious weakness; the defensive line.   I believe the likelihood is that they will at least make progress on this front, and so I see them taking the division ahead of the Jets, who are perhaps in the reverse position – I’m not convinced by Sanchez and their redzone play.

Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95

AFC West

San Diego will score a lot because they always do (Rivers pulling the strings for Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates, with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert on the ground, is about as solid as it gets) and the feeling is they were a decent special teams unit away from a run at the whole thing last year. It’ll be interesting to see the effect of the lockout, but they should take it.

The really interesting bet here is the Broncos in the rest of the pack. A healthy Denver defense (their Achilles heal) under John Fox may just jump over the rest of the runners, although their schedule is brutal.
The Bolts are too short.

Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5

AFC North

Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton aren’t getting it done.

As usual, it will be the two big beasts battling it out and I give Pittsburgh the edge, just. Both are formidable defensive units, although the Steelers need to address their secondary, but the Steelers can get it done in clutch situations on offense, whereas Baltimore are prone to stumble when the pressure’s on – most notably against their great rivals.

Pick: Steelers @ 1.91
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (possibly the easiest 30% return you’ll ever see)

AFC South

Manning is injured, Hasselbeck will be, and Blaine Gabbert is a new boy.

It’s Houston!

Pick: Texans @ 2.05
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73

The rest ...

AFC Champs: Patriots @ 4.33
NFC Champs: Packers @ 4.5

Superbowl : Packers @ 8

Have a great season!

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Worley has been extraordinary since his call-up (as if the Phillies needed more pitching!) and Hudson has got stronger as the Braves have come down the stretch - his numbers this year against Philadelphia are also encouraging.

However, Worley's numbers at home 0.91/1.96 WHIP/ERA are so strong, that the price looks value here. Given Hudson's run of late and his record against the Phillies recently, I'll also go Under at an overcast Citizens Bank Park.

Pick: Phillies @ 1.83
Pick: Under 7.0 @ 2.05

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

96-96 (+3.98pts)

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Detroit look the bet here.

These two pitchers were brought in by there respective teams to take them through September and into the post-season, but they've had mixed results. Fister has pitched well (0.74/0.83 WHIP/ERA L3) and Jimenez hasn't (1.71/6.61). Jimenez has brutal stuff, and that won't have gone away, but he can be opposed today.

Detroit are also on a 3 game win streak going into this key divisional game.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.05

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

95-96 (+2.93pts)

I've just realised, I mistakenly put the Boston game (below) down as a win (it was a push on the totals). Sorry about that!

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

A difficult one to get hold of - the Red Sox are usually clutch, but the Yanks put them away in their recent series to cut Boston's lead to just half a game in the AL East. That said, Miller has been tough recently, and I get the feeling they'll win tonight.

However, Holland has won six of his last seven decisions and has posted a 3.26 ERA during a 10-start stretch that started on July 7. He threw three shutouts during that span and pitched into the ninth inning four times. His record against Boston is good enough and that possibly tempers the urge to lump on the Red Sox at the price.

The Totals is a difficult one too, if only because Holland occasionally falls over (3, 10, 7 runs given up L3) and so it's a bit of a crap shoot to go Under (my preference here) against a line up that can hit (Boston are hitting lefties at a .312 clip at home).

This should be a great game, that is absolutely critical to both teams, and I'd like to take an interest, so I'll plump on balance for the home favourite - not my bet of choice in general, but I have a feeling for the Red Sox, and I'll also have a touch on Unders and hope these two pitchers continue their good form.

Pick: Red Sox @ 1.83
Pick: Under 10 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

95-95 (+3.1pts)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

I'm back, baby!

It was iPad only for a few days and I couldn't be bothered. Still, let's resume the glorious march to bankruptcy.

The poor Bucs; it was all looking heroic there for a while, but now they're floating at the top of the bowl and the end of the regular season flush can't come quickly enough. Similarly, the Cubbies are hardly sending their fans home with a song in their hearts.

There's not a bunch of value knocking about (neither of these pitchers inspires) but with a line that high and Chicago hitting lefties at .215 L10 and Pittsburgh .230 against righties, I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 12 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

94-95 (+2.15pts)

Well, that's not too humiliating, I was only 8 runs out ...

Capuano pitched his best game ever, tossing a two-hitter and striking out a career-high 13 as the New York Mets blanked the Braves 6-0 Friday night

Tim Hudson (13-8) (has beaten the Mets) 14 times, his highest win total against any opponent ... the Mets tagged him for 11 hits - the most he had allowed since 2008 - in 6 1/3 innings.
ESPN MLB

The baseball gods hate me

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

The Mets' pitching blows.

The rotation has a 5.61 ERA in August, and the bullpen has allowed at least one run in 11 straight games, and at least one run in 27 of its last 32. New York's relievers have logged a 5.71 ERA in August.

Capuano is no exception, he has fallen off a cliff since the All-Star break and I can't see him having much joy tonight.

The veteran Hudson has put up nice numbers L3 and he's 7-0 with a 1.64 ERA over his last 10 starts. Blazing.

With Atlanta on the road, the run line becomes a stronger play, as they carry all the momentum into this game.

Pick: Braves -1.5 @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

94-94 (+3.15pts)

RIP Mike Flanagan (December 16, 1951 – August 24, 2011)

Ouch

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

Boston is getting players back from injury and although Beckett has struggled against the Rangers, I like him to take this one. Harrison has struggled of late and a re-grouping Red Sox lineup can hurt him today if he continues to issue free passes.

Dana DeMuth at home plate has a 20/7 O/U line! Given the potent hitters on show, I'll take a little Overs too at a sunny Arlington.

Pick: Red Sox @ 1.91
Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

92-94(+1.33pts)

Sorry about last night (thanks for the email); I posted up the Boston/Texas game, then switched on to see LLWS going on. I assumed they'd pulled the MLB and so I deleted the post, just to tidy up the blog.

Worst of all, I called it right!

LA Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals

Kershaw is ripping it up this season - he has been brilliant: all of his stats are strong and his strikeout percentage is even rising every month.

Lohse has also been solid recently (1.41/3.31)and I'd usually go Under, but the price is too short.

Instead, I'm going to try and rely on Kershaw's record against the Cardinals this season, his slightly worse numbers on the road and the Dodgers' record in Busch Stadium.

St Louis knocked Kershaw about the last time they met (4.2 innings 2.36/9.64 WHIP/ERA) and his splits away are 1.12/3.39. Also, this lineup is hitting .296 against him.

The Dodgers are too short at Busch Stadium, where they are 4-15, and the totals market has no value - so we're left with St Louis who are one of the few teams to trouble Kershaw this season.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.03

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

92-93(+2.33pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

The Cards seem to be buckling a little under the pressure of pursuing the Brewers: they're 4-6 L10.

Westbrook has lost both his starts against Chicago this season, giving up nine earned runs in less than nine innings.

That's not to say Lopez inspires; although he has gone 7-3 L10, St Louis beat him like a gong the last time he faced them, tagging him for 6 runs on 8 hits in just four and a third, and his numbers L3 are as poor as Westbrook's.

Lopez is 0-3 with 8.76 in his last three games against the Cardinals.

Given the pitchers' numbers ...

Pick: Over 9 @ 2.05

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

92-92(+3.33pts)