orioles

Sunday October 17th 1am
ESPN America

Starting Pitchers
St. Louis: Jackson (0-0, 4.15 ERA)
Milwaukee: Marcum (0-1, 11.25 ERA)

Well, this couldn't be more straightforward; Marcum talks about 'getting the ball to Yo' for Game 7, but unless Ron Roenicke picks a starter who can actually get the team to Game 7, the point is moot.

Marcum started the season well, got worse towards the back end of the season, and now he stinks. 'A 5.17 ERA in September ... a 12.46 ERA in two postseason starts. In Game 2 of the NLCS, with Marcum matched against Jackson, the Brewers lost, 12-3.' mlb.com

He might come good, but if you're offering me odds against on the Cards, I'll take it. It's not like Miller Park scares St. Louis; the Cardinals have won five of their last seven at Miller Park, including that 12-3 victory in Game 2.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.1; 110; 11/10

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

123-115 (+16.74pts)

New Orleans (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sky Sports 2, Sunday October 16th, 9pm

Drew Brees may put up big numbers tonight. Tampa have had problems defending the pass all season and they’ve lost some key defensive players for this game on the line and in the secondary. The Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham is having a great year and is catching a ton of passes – he’ll see it a lot again tonight and give the Bucs’ safeties a tough time (and Cody Grimm is out). With the loss of DT Gerald McCoy and with LBs Mason Foster (ankle) and Quincy Black (ankle) listed as questionable, the New Orleans’ offense should roll along nicely with Darren Sproles enjoying those linebacker issues.

Freeman was poor last week, and seemed flustered in the pocket, so expect to see the NO defense give him lots of different looks, with some exotic blitz packages; unfortunately for Freeman, RT Jeremy Trueblood has been overmatched so far. Freeman has undeniable talent, and the Saints can over-commit, allowing room in behind, but he doesn’t seem to be quite synching up with his receivers at the moment. Freeman is leaning heavily on TE Kellen Winslow, who matches up nicely.

LeGarrette Blount is out, so Earnest Graham gets the carries, but the Saints have been solid against the run, and if Tampa Bay get behind, he may be a bit player.

The Saints look as though they have too much here; with Brees under centre, he has size and power downfield and nice options at the line if he needs to change it up. The Buccaneers will come under pressure up front and Freeman needs to begin to find his receivers more consistently to really pose a threat.

I’ll give the points.

Pick: Saints -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Jimmy Graham @ 11.0; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD Darren Sproles @ 2.3; 130; 13/10
(Sorry, I left in the Overs bet from the post below!)

*UPDATE
RT Jeff Otah (back) is out and that impacts the running game badly for Carolina. Keep stakes small.

+4 is available ... take it!

Carolina (1-4) at Atlanta (2-3)
Sky Sports 2, Sunday October 16th, 6pm

Cam Newton has been something of a revelation and is developing into a fine QB with a strong, accurate arm and a cool head that handles pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has problems rushing the passer and in the secondary, and I expect Newton to have another big game.  He has the weapons downfield and can mix it up with short passes over the top to his TEs (look for Olsen and Shockey) and handing it off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart – although significantly for the TD markets, Newton is still effectively the redzone back for the Panthers.

In contrast, Matt Ryan is struggling, even in the Georgia Dome. He’s got injury problems on the O line, where G Garrett Reynolds and C Todd McClure could be out and LT Sam Baker is poor. The Falcons’ receivers are banged up - Julio Jones is out and Roddy White is carrying a dodgy hammy, and White’s problems catching are back. That said, the Carolina pass rush is not great (eight sacks on the year) and Ryan should have time if he wants to throw his usual bucket load of passes.

Atlanta should really attack on the ground, where the Panthers have problems stopping teams. Rookie DTs Sione Fua and Terrell McClain are still learning and the Panthers have real problems at linebacker; this makes Michael Turner a big factor today.

There are holes in both defenses here and there should be points inside the dome, where I get the sense the Falcons are not a happy unit and the Panthers can benefit as they continue to progress.

Pick: Panthers +3.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Cam Newton @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.00; 100; Evens
Pick: Over 50 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

--------------------------------------

2011 Results

ATS 16-5 (76%)

Starting Pitchers
Detroit: Scherzer (16-9, 4.32 ERA)
Texas: Holland (17-5, 3.92 ERA)

Holland got pulled after only two and two thirds innings in his last outing, giving up three runs on four hits to Detroit. His numbers L3 are 1.74/4.97 WHIP/ERA and he has a 4.67 ERA at home.

Scherzer’s numbers L3 are rather better, including a quality start in this series LTO (although he took the loss) and he’s 5-2 all-time against Texas with 6 QS; Scherzer is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts against Texas in 2011.

Texas are on the brink here, but I can’t take Holland at 1.67, whose 17-5 season record is due in no small part to the run support he has received; he led the AL this year at an amazing 7.64 per game. If the Detroit bats show any signs of life, they can reach him for a few tonight and Scherzer just needs to keep it in the park and get it to Benoit and Valverde.

Scherzer is too attractive at 2.45, so I’ll have a little faith and back Detroit to take this series down to the wire ... and lose it in seven. I like the Overs here too, with neither pitcher filling me with confidence in Arlington.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.45; 145; 29/20
Pick: Over 9 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

122-114 (+16.74pts)

Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee: Greinke (1-0, 9.00 ERA)
St. Louis: Garcia (0-1, 13.50 ERA)

This should go over in a hurry, but it doesn’t help that I hate betting the overs and last night’s 3 for 20 RISP ruined breakfast.

Greinke is 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the road and got hit hard last time out against the Cardinals, giving up 6 earned runs on 8 hits and has a 6.35 ERA L3.

I like Garcia, and I’ve invested in him a couple of times in the post-season, only to lose. He has good stuff, but tends to fall over and have a bad inning that blows the game – and my money! His numbers L3 are even worse than Greinke’s, at 1.47/7.80 WHIP/ERA, but his stats save him at home, where he’s 9-5 with a 2.63 ERA.

Garcia needs to get it done tonight, because the St. Louis’ bullpen has been hanging on for grim life to keep them in the aeries (their starters have gone 7.13 ERA in the series, while their relievers have put up a 2.08 ERA) and the cardinals have to go to Miller Park ahead.

The Brewers won their first post-season road game since 1982 last night, but I’m going to give Garcia another go; this Milwaukee lineup is hitting .253 against him (St. Louis are hitting .284 against Greinke) and I take him to get it done. I'll save it on the overs.

Pick: Cardinals @ 1.8; -125; 4/5
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

120-114 (+14.94pts)

Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee: Wolf (13-11, 3.93 ERA)
St. Louis: Lohse (14-9, 3.53 ERA)

Wolf has a 10.43 ERA in his last three starts and a 3-2 record, with a 5.34 ERA in five starts against St. Louis this year. He’s a difficult pitcher to get a read on at Busch Stadium – he’s had four QS there in his career, but he’s also got knocked about a couple of times.

Lohse is 1-2 with a 2.37 ERA this season against the Brewers, and has a poor 2-8 lifetime record against them, but he pitched a beauty against them last time out at home and is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts at Busch Stadium.

My worry is that neither of these pitchers inspires and, although I think the Cards will take this, Lohse is not a 1.74 back.

Instead, I’ll consider this; Lohse is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two career postseason starts and Wolf is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three career postseason starts, never having gone more than 5⅓ innings.

It’s not a great betting proposition, but I’ll have a small interest in Overs, which looks the only price worth taking here.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

120-113 (+15.94pts)

A quickie:

Verlander's pitch count is getting high here ... remember the bullpen is exhausted and a Lay, even late in the game if Detroit are ahead might be in order.

I'm back, baby!

After an avalanche of literally a couple of emails complaining about my move to another blog host, I decided to post in both places.

My picks over the last couple of weeks can be seen at my new blog (http://ukusbetting.blogspot.com/)

Enjoy

MLB - Texas at Detroit
Thursday October 13th 9pm
ESPN America

Starting Pitchers
Texas: Wilson (16-8, 3.13 ERA)
Detroit: Verlander (25-6, 2.56 ERA)

The Rangers are on the brink, and the Tigers have to win to stay alive.

The post-season numbers on the two pitchers tonight (Wilson has a 3.86 ERA and Justin Verlander’s is 6.75) are a little misleading, as they have battled through rain interrupted games that disturb the rhythm of a starting pitcher. Verlander in particular seems to have struggled with the situation.

And rain is forecast.

There’s no doubt last night’s loss was a body blow to Detroit, who led, drew level and then had men on to win it late. They’re carrying injuries though, and looked poor at the plate again; the quotes coming out of the clubhouse aren’t very upbeat either.

Verlander is the superior pitcher here, by some distance, but he will need to go deep into the game, because the bullpen has been worked hard and Valverde imploded spectacularly last night after Benoit had struggled to get the game to him still level.

The numbers say Detroit, but the momentum and the fates seem to favour Texas, who are the value here.

Pick: Rangers @ 2.4; 140; 7/5

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

120-112 (+16.94pts)

I've moved to:

http://ukusbetting.blogspot.com/

Nothing sinister ... all free, same stuff, no registering or logging on. Just different host.

See you there!

This weekend's games (and the early baseball) are up.

New York Mets @ St Louis Cardinals

A straightforward pick - this goes Over.

Westbrook struggles at home: Capuano struggles on the road.

Both teams are hitting, and should be able to put runs up this afternoon.

Pick: Over 9 @ 2.00

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

100-99 (+4.67pts)