orioles

St Louis @ Miami

Miami are ready to rock; a new stadium, a new name, new uniforms, and free agent signings Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle. Josh Johnson is aces and while I generally like to oppose these guys early in the season, I'm not only going to break that rule, but also break my other habit of never betting the runline.

With Lohse on the mound, the team missing a couple of players and staring at Albert's empty 'plane seat, this could be a tough opener for the Cards.

Pick: Marlins -1.5 @ 5/4; 2.25; 125

I'll be picking all the live TV games I can this season again.

In the meantime, here's the pre-season silliness...

AL East

The Yankees have improved their rotation and if it weren't for the age of the lineup, they would still remain value at odds on. Boston shipped out their GM in the wake of last year's catastrophe and threw Francona after him, and their restructuring of the back end of the pen has been blighted by Bailey’s thumb, so it may be a little soon for the new front office and manager to achieve success.

I think the value here is the Tampa Bay Rays, who are a more than live chance. Their pitching and defense is outstanding and if some of their hitters can find a little form they can go deep into the post-season

Pick: AL East Tampa Bay Rays @ 11/2; 6.5; 550

AL West

This is a straight race between the LA Angels and the Texas Rangers. The Oakland A's are rebuilding again and Seattle couldn't get runs after a plate of curried mussels, so we are left with the Rangers and the Angels.

Given the depth of the Texas pitching and the offence they are capable of pulling up I am going to favour them at odds against; I can't trust the Angels rotation at odds-on.

Pick: AL West Texas Rangers @ 23/20; 2.15; 115

AL Central

Detroit. Going out and getting Prince Fielder and committing that much money sends only one message and it's difficult to see anyone stopping the Tigers from taking the title in this otherwise weak division. The price is too short for my tastes, but it should provide a relatively certain 27% on your money.

Pick: AL Central Detroit Tigers @ 27/100; 1.27; 127

NL East

The Mets are horrible, the Marlins lack depth on the mound (although they boast a significant offense) as do the Nationals and the Phillies may struggle on offense like they did last year down the stretch; even with that great rotation they look too short.

I'm going to take a punt here and take the Braves. Make no mistake, this is a real punt and I wouldn't advise a heavy bet, however Atlanta have the potential to click on offense and if key members of the rotation return successfully from injury, they could be value at the price.

Pick: AL Central Atlanta Braves @ 7/1; 8.00; 700

NL West

It's the Giants and the Diamondbacks in the market and it's difficult to disagree with the money, but of the two I favour the Giants. The return of Posey and Melky Cabrera coming to the Bay should re-energise the offence and their pitching remains stellar. Arizona on the other hand will need their pitchers to exceed themselves to mount a serious challenge.

San Francisco Giants @ 13/8; 2.63; 163

NL Central

Adding Latos into the mix and the Reds are as potent a mixture on the mound and through the lineup (especially in such a hitter friendly park) as any in baseball. Madson going down is a worry, but Sean Marshall can get it done. With the loss of Pujols and Fielder in the NL Central it makes the Reds more than ever ‘the team most likely’. They’ve signalled their intent by giving Votto a pile of money and throw in rookies like Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco and Cincinnati look the bet.

Pick: NL Central Cincinnati Reds @ 8/5; 2.6; 160

Beyond that?

AL Pennant: Tampa Bay Bays @ 14/1; 15; 1400
NL Pennant: San Francisco Giants @ 10/1; 11; 1000

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays @ 25/1; 26; 2500

Good luck and enjoy the season!

NY Giants (12-7) vs. New England (15-3)
Sunday 11.30pm

Pick: Giants -3 @ 2.25; 125; 5/4
[EDIT: Sorry about that, the bet was obviously NYG straight up, not -3. Although that would've been a cracking price!]

Pick: 1st TD Hakeem Nicks @ 10.0; 900; 9/1

Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: Anytime TD
Deion Branch @ 2.88; 180; 15/8
Chad Ochocinco @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Aaron Hernandez @ 2.2; 120; 6/5
BJGE @ 2.0; 100; Evens

Pick: Eli Manning TD Passing Yards Buy @ 56
Pick: New York Sack Exchange Buy @ 38

Pick: MVP Eli Manning @ 2.9; 190; 19/10

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I wrote on the 7th January:

I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense – Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth backing if only for trading purposes.

Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1
Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1

I also wrote:

Defense wins Super Bowls

Of the 45 teams to win Super Bowl titles, 38 had top-10 defenses.

Brady had better get some help, any help, from his awful defense. Spotting teams 20+ points in the post-season won’t work. The New England defense is last in yards given up in the AFC. Consider this too, the only two opponents on New England's schedule that finished above .500 were the Steelers and the Giants, and the Pats lost both those games.

Pick: Super Bowl winner Lay New England Patriots

I think that all still holds (I’m not that smart, I picked Green Bay to repeat) but New York have come on more since then and, with a touch of luck, have arrived in Indy with more than a live chance.

My only concerns are:

There’s a considerable body of opinion that says the Giants are going to win – 61% of the money has come for the G-men and not only do I not trust the herd, but Vegas rarely gets the Super Bowl wrong and the Patriots are still favoured.

New York’s players are telling everyone who’ll listen they’re nailed on - hubris is dangerous against a coach as smart as Bill Belichick and a QB as capable as Tom Brady.

Beating New England twice in a season is breathing rarefied air – only three teams have ever managed it against the ‘Belichick and Brady’ Patriots, primarily because no current HC can read and adapt to an opposition the way Belichick can. 

But I’m still taking the New York Giants.

Here’s why:

Brady struggles with teams that can pressure him bringing only four pass rushers. The Giants can do just that with Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka; four DEs, working side by side in what the Giants call their NASCAR package.

Ordinarily, New York would drop their TEs into extra protection if Brady came under pressure, but with Gronkowski carrying an injury, they may struggle to keep Brady upright. Belichick and Brady will mix it up at the line and try to spread out the Giants’ D, but I suspect Brady will find it tough tonight.

However, we are talking about Tom Brady here, and the Giants are definitely weak on the back end, so if he does find time, he can attack using Welker in the slot and the best TE one two in the game. Antrel Rolle was owned by Vernon Davis in the NFC title game and the Giants will have a nightmare dealing with the TEs at safety let alone Welker.

On that front, it’s worth taking an interest in Deion Branch and even possibly Chad Ochocinco, because these two are often left in single coverage and one is a fine receiver, while the other was, but is the kind of showman that pops up into the limelight when he’s no right to.

The other element that can keep Brady out of pressure situations is a ground game; New England hasn’t a strong one to be honest, although the committee goes to BenJarvus Green-Ellis close in, so he might be worth a touch to score. The Giants though, are tough against the run and shouldn’t be troubled by Danny Woodhead and his buddies.

Eli Manning made the call pre-season and was as good as his word; he’s an elite QB, no argument.  He usually made a couple of howling mistakes a game, but this year he has been very efficient – witness his 32 for 58 for 316 yards and 2 TDs with no interceptions against the much vaunted San Francisco defense in the NFC Championship game. Manning had better be at it today though, because although the Patriots are poor on defense they are ball hawks, ranking second in the NFL in interceptions and have made progress lately as a unit.

It helps of course, that Manning has a receiving corps of Nicks, Cruz and Manningham; New York has never had two 1,000 yard receivers and although Nicks has a gimpy shoulder, they should all get plenty of looks today. Nicks is having an outstanding post-season and again, is worth an interest to score.
Although not in the same class as Gronkowski/Hernandez, the G-Men have also managed to discover a serviceable TE in Jake Ballard and his backup, Travis Beckum, has emerged in the last three games.

With Andre Carter missing, there isn’t much of a pass rush coming Eli’s way, and crucially he goes into this game with all his offensive options available – when the Giants beat the Pats in Week Nine, Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw were missing.

Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are important here. While New England have a somewhat lacklustre backfield, New York do at least have a bona fide ground attack. Bradshaw/Jacobs add balance and although New England’s run D is underrated, the rushing and catching out of the backfield change up can keep the Pats’ shaky secondary vulnerable, as Belichick will be unable to drop everyone into coverage for fear of giving up yards from scrimmage. It also makes clock management much easier if Manning can hand it off and offers him protection.

Rob Gronkowski - THE man on offense this season in the NFL. Modern TEs are redefining the position and Gronkowski is in the vanguard; 265lbs of muscle ranging across the whole field. His injury is the most talked about for a while and although it’s always difficult to get a read on Belichick when he releases his injury lists, it appears he really is struggling and that is a disaster for the Pats.

That injury, the Giants’ pass rush, Eli Manning’s form, his receivers and runners and the Pats secondary makes me lean towards the Giants, despite Belichick’s genius, Brady’s talent and TEs that terrify. Two dodgy secondaries and trigger men this good, playing in a dome should mean points too.

Enjoy!

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I hope these thoughts throughout the season have been entertaining and even illuminating, and you’ve made a few quid. I’m taking a rest, but I’ll be back for the baseball season.

Thanks for looking in.

NFL Record 2011

ATS
45 - 34 (57%)

MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

NY Giants (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3)
Sky Sports, Sunday 11.30pm

This is a weird pick, because instead of my usual blether, all I’m going say is, ‘go with the hot hand’!

There are plenty of reasons to favour a defense as aggressive and capable as San Francisco’s, but the Giants are plugged into the force.

As long as New York aren’t too caught up in the hype (the money has come for them, and everyone is tipping them) and stay focussed – in Manning Jr. we trust.

Pick: Giants +2 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Hakeem Nicks @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree@ 2.5; 150; 6/4
Pick: Total Game Rushing Yards Under 210.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21

Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3)
Sky Sports, Sunday 8pm

This was supposed to be the year that the old adage, ‘Defenses win championships’ was going to be put to rest – the two hottest offenses were carrying the worst defenses, nothing could stop the inexorable march of the Packers and the Patriots; that all came to a shuddering halt last week.

It turns out defense does still matter and that should be good news for a Ravens’ team that are routinely very strong on that side of the ball. However, I think this game will turn on ...

Brady was brutal last week against a Denver D that had made Tebow look a lot better than he really was – can Tom be as effective against a much tougher stop unit? Terrell Suggs and his buddies must get home against a New England O line that is less than stellar, but a QB who is still difficult to sack.

Is Brady’s shoulder ok? If that shoulder is vulnerable, you can bet the Ravens will attack it.

Is Ed Reed fit? He’ll go, but he really needs to be firing and get after Brady and the ball – it’s Reed and Lardarius Webb who are the ball hawks. Reed had six tackles, three broken up passes and an interception against the Houston Texans. In his 10-season career, Reed has eight interceptions in the postseason.

Can Ray Rice get rolling? If Rice prospers, then the weakest link in the Ravens’ O, Joe Flacco, traditionally plays well – it also keeps Brady off the field. Vince Wilfork jams the run nicely and key members of the New England D line are getting fit; Jerod Mayo,  Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung can make it difficult for Rice.

Bill Belichick. I flip flopped on the Pats last week and when I look back at that pick, it was poor.  Few HCs in the NFL are as tactically astute and Belichick’s ability to adapt his gameplan is equally impressive. Belichick will complicate Rice’s life this evening, but it will also mean that any weakness in the Baltimore D will be picked apart – witness Aaron Hernandez in the backfield last week.

Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk – unstoppable. The former will appear in the backfield again (look for New England getting the run going with exotic packages, the Ravens have given up yards on the ground recently) and both are targets that dominate their coverage.

The rest of the Pats’ receivers – that’s a lot of talent to keep in check and Tom will spread the love.

Can the Ravens keep up? If New England get out in front early and you’re betting IR, be careful. The thought of Flacco trying to catch up with fairly limited options downfield (I still expect Torrey Smith to make a big play or two, because Flacco must take the occasional deep shot) is not a pretty one.

This will be close, because although Baltimore don’t have as potent an offense, Ray Rice can carry that aspect himself (in the 2010 playoffs, Rice went 83 yards for a TD on the first play from scrimmage and took the Pats for 159/2 on the day) and New England are relatively weak on defense, but the Pats know which element they have to concentrate on.

However, the home team should have just too much variety on offense and with New England available at Evens giving up a TD, they look value.

Pick: Pats -7 @ 200; 100; Evens (VC)

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.1; 110; 11/10
Pick: Torrey Smith Total Receiving Yards Over 55.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

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NFL Record 2011

ATS
44 - 33 (57%)

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MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

NY Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)
Sky Sports, Sunday 9.30pm

I wrote a couple of weeks ago:

‘I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense – Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth backing if only for trading purposes.

Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1
Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1’

Well, I’ve layed a fair chunk of it back now and I like Green Bay to cover in tonight’s game.

All of the above is still true, and everyone is picking the Giants as this weekend’s ‘Dog Most Likely’, but I’m betting on Rodgers.

The G-Men have the weapons to slow any QB – pressure without blitzing and a solid run game - but their weakness on the back end means that as long as Green Bay keep Rodgers upright (and you don’t have to do that for long with someone that talented and with that many options) he can get after the Giants’ weak secondary. The Packers will spread it out and then look for any of the legion of GB receivers, including a fit again Greg Jennings.

The knock on the Packers is their defense, but again, they’ve spent two weeks getting guys fit and they led the league in interceptions and had a terrific +24 turnover margin – and we saw the effect of stats like that last night in San Francisco.

I’m going with the least favourite favourite of the week.

Pick: Packers -7.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21 (PP)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 9; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.2; 120; 6/5

Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)
Sky Sports, Sunday 6pm

I like Baltimore here; T.J. Yates has struggled manfully to keep the Texans rolling behind their running game, but the Ravens have an aggressive defense and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs et al are likely to give him a very tough time this afternoon. It is possible to get after the Baltimore corners, but attacking Cary Williams and Lardarius Webb means getting the ball to Andre Johnson and Ed Reed will be all over Johnson, helping his corners; Baltimore don’t give up many passing TDs.

The Texans’ offense is Arian Foster, who not only moves the chains rushing and catching, but takes operates to take the pressure off Yates. The problem here is that the Ravens are tough against the run, and can clog up the middle with guys like Terrence Cody and Haloti Ngata. Ben Tate will back up Foster and it’ll be his job to wear down the old guys on the Ravens’ line with his straight ahead power – but he’ll face the same problems; old guys are also wiley old veterans playing in their house.

Joe Flacco hardly inspires; he can be shaky and facing a pass rush as strong as the Texans’ is a rough matchup. He has the arm, but the temperament is dubious and rather like Yates, he’ll want to lean on his running game in Ray Rice, who took Houston for 161 total yards (101 on the ground) last time these teams met. Rice won’t have an easy time of it up against Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing, but he worked it out before and should find a way today; it is crucial though, that he sees the rock early and often – let’s hope Cam Cameron hasn’t forgotten that as he sometimes does.

Flacco’s strong arm means that the Ravens occasionally threaten to break off a big passing play, usually relying on the speed of Torrey Smith. The return of Anquan Boldin is encouraging for Flacco and the Ravens and although Boldin will doubtless see a lot of Johnathan Joseph, he does offer options vertically.

In truth, these are pretty evenly matched teams (the money is split 51/49 in the Ravens’ favour) and the deciding factors may be that the Ravens are at home and that they boast veterans who have seen the post-season before, including Flacco. This could be a low scoring affair with two tough defenses on show against questionable QBs, so an interest in the totals could be worth shopping around for.

Pick: Ravens -7.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21 (B365)

Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 12; 1100; 11/1
Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 4.5; 350; 7/2
Pick: Under 37 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21

Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)
Sky Sports, Sunday 1am

Tebow made me look more foolish than usual last week (as difficult as that is!) and this time, I’m going to give him another chance – 13.5 points is just too much to give here with a Pats’ D that is awful and a team that only seems to get rolling in the 2nd quarter. My suspicion is that people believe Tebow is due a shellacking, and while the Broncos may not win, they don’t look a 13.5 point dog.

Denver beat (an admittedly decimated) Steelers who still had Ike Taylor in the secondary with Troy Polamalu; Tebow had only ten completions, but they were big, devastating plays – just the sort of thing the Pats have specialised in conceding. Also, consider this; when these teams met in Week Fifteen, Willis McGahee gained 70 yards on his first 7 carries, before pulling his hamstring and there’s nothing to suggest he can’t take the New England 17th ranked rush defense for some big yards again.

Demaryius Thomas should give guys like Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington fits and Tebow obviously doesn’t mind slinging it to him (I hate those mechanics, just like everyone else) and even Eddie Royal has re-emerged, as Eric Decker has hit the sidelines.

A real issue is ball safety; Denver mustn’t put the ball on the floor and McGahee’s fumble late last week gives me pause.

The Patriots will score, with all that talent it’s probably more difficult not to put up a decent points tally, but Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are getting up to speed and can keep Brady more than honest. The secondary are going to struggle containing the excellent New England Tight Ends and talent deep, but if Champ Bailey and his buddies can avoid breaking, Denver can cover.

Something to bear in mind if you’re trading in-running; look for Brady switching to a no-huddle offense if they’re behind as they have been in recent games; New England can catch up in a hurry.

C’mon Tim, I don’t rate you as a QB, but if you spit in my eye again, I can make a few quid. Take the points.

Pick: Broncos +13.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Willis McGahee @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD Deion Branch 2.75; 175; 7/4

New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3)
Sky Sports, Saturday 9.15pm

This is a real beauty of a match up and I’m going to take the Saints to march into the Conference final.

A home, dome team? Well, this season New Orleans were only 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road; contrast San Francisco at home, who went 7-1 SU/ 7-0-1 ATS. However, although it’s outside, the weather forecast looks good, with low winds – a bonus at a sometimes blustery Candlestick Park.

These worrying stats aside, this is the classic meeting of a scalding hot offense and a stop unit that has a front seven that would put the fear of god into any QB and a special teams group that are expert at pinning opponents deep. The 49ers have allowed just 10 points in total in their last three games at home. They also boast a plus 28 turnover differential and Brees will need to be as accurate as he’s been all season.

Obviously, the easiest way of slowing Drew Brees is to get to him, and while the superb duo of  Aldon and Justin Smith will be looking to disrupt the rhythm so vital to a high tempo offense like the Saints, pressure without blitzing is important in order not to ‘sell out’ the coverage.

The problem with pressuring Brees is twofold; he reads the defense and distributes the ball so intelligently and so quickly that he dissipates the pressure, and the New Orleans’ line, which has kept Brees on his feet all season, is difficult to out-muscle. The arm wrestle at the line of scrimmage will be fascinating.

The 49ers are almost impossible to run on, but the Saints can’t be one dimensional; although Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory will still see touches, it is Darren Sproles with his speed who is the wildcard on the edges and the Saints need him to find some room.

If the San Francisco defense has a weakness (and it’s only relative to its strength elsewhere) it’s out wide and that’s dangerous against New Orleans and Drew Brees who have a particular talent for attacking at the perimeter and deep. The Saints rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards and Brees has a multitude of targets beyond his favourite, Jimmy Graham. The 49ers have talent at the corners with Carlos Rogers and Chris Culliver, but they can be beaten on the back end. I suspect the Saints will look for some big plays early to try to get out in front quickly.

If New Orleans manage to get a lead early, that will dull the 49ers greatest threat on offense; Frank Gore and the speedy Kendall Hunter. The Saints have actually been stout against the run, and Gore may still be nicked up, but he will still set the tone of this side of the ball for the home team.

Gore will also slow down the pressure that the Saints will inevitably want to bring against the reborn Alex Smith. He has protected the ball beautifully all season, but is still vulnerable and I expect Greg Williams to use a variety of scheme and people after Smith.

The 49ers real problem is that while New Orleans are notoriously poor against the pass, outside Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis (who are admittedly talented - Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter had better be ‘on’) there aren’t many options downfield and those that there are, are carrying injuries.

And that’s the essential difference; yes, Drew Brees will be severely challenged by the the 49ers’ defense, but New Orleans will score 20+ points, the difficulty for the home team is that I don’t see where San Francisco get enough points to take the game, and I have the Saints at lest a field goal better, so I’ll give the points.

Pick: Saints -3.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Michael Crabtree @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Marcus Colston @ 2.00; 100; Evens
Pick: Total TD Yardage Buy @ 102

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NFL Record 2011

ATS
44 - 29 (60%)

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MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

Pittsburgh (11-5) at Denver (8-8)
Sky Sports, 9.30pm

I've talked about Tebow before - he's done and so are Denver. Pittsburgh will use man coverage against him because they know he struggles to cope with it; they've also got the pass rush to further pressure Tebow into bad decisions. The Steelers can concentrate on choking the ground game, because Tebow couldn't hit a bull's backside with a banjo.

My reservations are threefold; Roethlisberger's injury, Mendenhall's absence and the weight of money on Pittsburgh (I feel happier opposing public opinion!) but rather like yesterday's games, I don't see much of a choice.

There's a feeling Denver have 'run out of road' and even with the injuries, Pittsburgh have too much experience and defense. I'll give the points again.

Pick: Steelers -7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 (PP)

Pick: 1st TD Mike Wallace @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.2; 120; 6/5