orioles

Texas @ Boston

Winning (and losing) streaks are powerful tools when betting baseball games. A streak is said to become 'live' after three games.

In this case, we have Texas on a five game streak.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 9-13 (-3.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Mets @ Atlanta

This game features two pitchers who appear to be heading in different directions;

Jair Jurrjens is 1-4 with a 6.22 ERA since the All-Star break last year and carries a 7.71 ERA on the season into this game.

R.A. Dickey, on the other hand, is on a run of 14 quality starts* since July 25 and has a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA this year.

Dickey has a .191 Ave against this lineup, with a .290 OBP. Jurrjens' numbers are .244/.321, which is not too shabby, but even with the Braves looking strong recently, I'll take a small interest in the Mets.

Pick: New York Mets @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 9-12 (-2.41)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

*In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.(wikipaste)

Texas @ Boston

The Bosox can't seem to get out of their own way; there was a feeling Bobby Valentine wasn't a popular choice with the players and last year's 'chicken and beers' debacle, that helped put paid to Tito, has been replaced by a spat with Valentine questioning the commitment of Kevin Youklis.

Texas, on the other hand, are confident and surging and look the value here as the road dog on a four game win streak.

Looking at the pitching splits against the opposing lineup, Colby Lewis has a worrying .289 average, but interestingly, Jon Lester has a .313 average against the Texas lineup. Lewis has traditionally struggled against Boston and at Fenway, but has started well this season.

Lester has also begun well and has a good record against the Rangers, but Texas certainly have the edge out of the bullpen and the question remains as to whether the Red Sox are really all pulling together.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 51/50; 2.02; 102

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 8-12 (-3.43)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Minnesota @ Evil Empire

The Twins' and the Yanks' starters are both giving up runs, with team ERA's north of 4.00. These two starters are a case in point and both of them have struggled so far with ERA's of nearly 6.00.

Given that it's Yankee Stadium, the OU line is out at 10.5, but if we look at the splits against lineup, the Bombers are hitting .215 against Pavano (and he'll want to put in a good performance given his history in the Bronx) and although the Twins are hitting .302 against Garcia, they've only scored above 3 runs twice this season.

The Yankees should take this and given the relative state of the bullpens, I'll take the runline in case there is an avalanche of runs.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110
Pick: Under 10.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 7-11 (-3.34)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

San Diego @ LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are on a five game winning streak and looking for their ninth home win in a row.

In contrast, the Padres are on a three game skid and struggling to find any form, with a 2-7 record on the season.

The bet SU is much too short and given Kershaw's ability and the Padres' .178 batting average, betting the runline looks the value here.

Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 @ 6/5; 2.2; 120

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 7-10 (-2.34)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Texas @ Minnesota

The Twins have made an ugly start to the season and it's unlikely things will improve this afternoon. Nick Blackburn was poor in his first outing and this Texas lineup is hitting a collective .381 against him.

Minnesota have found runs hard to come by and although Yu Darvish was shaky in his debut for the Rangers against the Mariners - he put far too many on, a lethal failing in the MLB - he seemed to overcome what ailed him towards the end of his 5 2/3 innings.

I'll put it down to first night nerves and back him to hold Minnesota while his team mates get after Blackburn.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 6-10 (-3.29)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Miami @ Philadelphia

After last night's fiasco, I'm a little gun shy on this one!

I'm not wildly keen on betting the weather but these are two teams batting .231/.237, it's cold and the wind is forecast in from right field. Mark Buehrle and Joe Blanton have decent enough records against these lineups, so I'm going Under again.

Pick: Under 8 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 5-10 (-4.20)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

*Some people have asked me a couple of things:

I generally wait a month or so before getting seriously involved with baseball (although I had a proper bet on the Marlins/Phillies' game last night).

I do, however, bet every pick I post; it hardly seems fair to post up a pick and not bet it.

I don't post my non-TV, regular picks, just because I couldn't write them all up and I'm not a fan of unsupported picks.

Cincinnati @ Washington

Two pitchers with great stuff who have struggled in their first outing; both left early and will be keen to impress their new teams.

Latos has a good record against the Nats (3-1, 2.14 ERA) but the Reds dropped two at Nationals Park last year. They're also still missing Brandon Phillips in an offense that hasn't really begun to roll yet, despite a flicker against the Cards.

Washington are hitting 17 points better, and the home team's bullpen has certainly been more solid, so I'll roll with The Nationals in their home opener.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 4-10 (-5.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Miami @ Philadelphia

Betting against Halladay is a pretty bold call, and his record against the Marlins (4-3, 2.51 ERA) hardly points up a weakness, but Josh Johnson has been something of a nemesis for Halladay and Johnson sports a 5-3, 3.16 line lifetime against Philadelphia - and an even more impressive 4-0 record at Citizens Bank Park with a miserly 1.87 ERA.

Note that Philly are on a 'qualifying' losing streak too, indicating a bet against.

I like the Unders here as well. In five games against each other, these pitchers have given up a total of ten runs and with Philly struggling to hit, and Halladay capable of shutting anyone down, it looks the bet.

Pick: Miami Marlins @ 129/100; 2.29; 129
Pick: Under 6 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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Results (Level Stakes)
2012 4-8 (-3.15)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

Boston @ Toronto

Lester was strong in his first outing. Romero, who has a patchy record at best against the Red Sox, did not.

Lester will need to go deep into this one, because the Boston bullpen is in a mess, so if they're ahead, Lay them back before he hands it over.

I'll take the price on Boston.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 5/6; 1.83; -120