orioles

Difficult to know which of these teams, who both misfired badly in Week 1, will have ironed out some of the kinks.

Both teams need to get their ground game going; Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams did nothing last week and the returning Jonathan Stewart had better signal a shift back to what got it done last year, as the Panthers just don't have the offensive line to rely on Newton's arm alone and they need to burn the clock against an offense as potent as New Orleans'. That said, not only did the Bucs put the QB under pressure all day, the Carolina front didn't do their runners any favours.

Similarly, the Saints need to get their run game rolling in order to give Drew Brees the room to operate - the Carolina defense struggled to contain the Tampa running game, so there's a flicker of hope.

The Saints traditionally don't travel well, and their secondary is an injury riddled shambles, so Steve Smith (if he goes) should prosper. Of course, the New Orleans D is faced with the same type of QB as last week and that either means they've been to school on the gameplan, or they'll be vulnerable again.

I'm going to take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.00

The ability to adapt quickly in the NFL is always impressive, and with the sort of talent available to the home team, I'll give the points in this one, even though the Packers look vulnerable.

Chicago opened impressively, once they got rolling, and Marshall is clearly helping Cutler, who has been talking about 'unleashing' this offense on the Packers. The bad news for Green Bay is that they made Alex Smith look like a top 5 QB last week as he picked the secondary apart, and Nick Perry must have been locked away looking at tape this week trying to put right an awful game, but remember, Dwight Freeney left early and the Bears O line won't be as dominant as the 49ers were.

Green Bay didn't function well on offense in the opener and Greg Jennings looks as though he won't go tonight, but Rodgers still has plenty of options - particularly if Jermichael Finley is really re-emerging. The biggest worry is the lack of a ground game; Cedric Benson is a bust and options are scarce, although at least Urlacher is still banged up. Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije will come for Rodgers, but he has the ability to keep clean and find his targets downfield.

I expect scoring in this one (look for Michael Bush close-in for the Bears) so I'll take the Overs too.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 2.00
Pick: Over 50.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Bush @ 2.00

Yanks at Boston

The Bosox are over for this season and it shows. As it is, the Yankees have dominated at Fenway recently and Kuroda has put up nice numbers against them in his last two outings.

I'll give the runs against the beleaguered Bostonians.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.25

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 93-89 (+16.51)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

------------------------------------------------------

Steelers @ Broncos

How much stock to put in a rebuilt Peyton? Well, apparently he's lost arm strength, but he may not be hurling it around tonight against a Steelers defense that was #1 against the pass last year. Pittsburgh have problems of their own on offense, with a rebuilt line falling apart so badly they've resigned veterans and benched bright young things who weren't ready.

All that said, Big Ben has lots of options against a lack of depth at the corners and the Steeler defense is still salty, so I'm picking the road dog SU.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2.25

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.00

49ers @ Packers

The Pack were sketchy on defense last year and in the off-season they drafted Nick Perry in the first round to energise the pass rush, but they still look soft at the corners. The 49ers had problems with getting the passing game rolling and went out and got receivers; my reservation here is that I'm not sure I want Alex Smith passing more!

The one thing you can guarantee is that Green Bay will be strong on offense and the clash between the Rodgers-led O and the vaunted San Francisco D is mouthwatering. I wonder if we're going to see the replacement refs really tested in this one? If Aaron Rodgers calls it, it's going to be a brave ref who doesn't oblige with a late flag or two.

However, as long as the Green Bay O line keeps him upright, I can't resist Rodgers giving up less than a TD at home.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.10

Colts @ Bears

Seeing Luck in his first regular season game is going to be a treat. Luck was poised and not a little polished in the pre-season and he catches a break with Urlacher out - unfortunately, that's about as far as the positives go. The Colts' O line is horrible and Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije and rookie Shea McClellin will be all over new QB if he doesn't get the ball out fast.

Pagano will try to apply the same ball control he learned with the Ravens and develop the run, but Chicago are an experienced, tough defense, who are difficult to out-manoeuvre.

Chicago will dominate up front all day and I expect Matt Forte to have a big game, especially with Pat Angerer out. Over the top, the Colts are thin and will be tested as the game develops. Jay Cutler finally gets the big target downfield that he's always wanted and can pick apart a defense that is in flux.

The Bears will make too many plays either side of the ball (they can dominate the kicking game too) for the Colts.

Pick: Chicago Bears -9.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Bush @ 2.25

------------------------------------------------------

2012 ATS 0-1
2011 ATS 46-34 (57.5%)

------------------------------------------------------

2012 NFL Season Preview

NFC East

I’ll start with the division containing my team, the Redskins.

Washington are a work in progress, the Giants were a 7-7 team in Week 16 and staged miracle comebacks (I’m not buying that again) and, despite Wednesday’s showing, Dallas will flatter to deceive.

This leaves the Eagles, who have a chance to redeem last year’s performance. If Vick stays upright, they’re the bet.

Pick: Eagles @ 2.5

NFC South

Saints or Falcons? Two offensive juggernauts, but the whole bountygate fiasco and the reinstated players make me think New Orleans are going to be hungrier than ever.

Pick: Saints @ 2.38

NFC North

Fuggedabahtit.

Packers @ 1.5

NFC West

Remember when Alex Smith flared briefly in the QB firmament? Well those days are gone and while that tough defense will carry them so far, I’m going to take the Seahawks and their rookie QB to take this division. They can get it done on offense and their young defense will be eager to impose themselves. Crucially, their schedule will be a big help.

Pick: Seahawks @ 4.5

AFC East

Pats. Brady is aces and they’ve made a couple of nice moves on the defensive side.

Pick: Patriots @ 1.32

AFC South

Another division where one team will dominate. The Houston Texans are difficult to oppose and are worth a look to win it all.

Pick: Texans @ 1.29

AFC North

This Division is usually a punch up between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and that should still be the case this year, although it’s a competitive group with Cincinnati yapping in the background, unfortunately their second half schedule is terrifying and will stop them dead.

The Ravens also have a tough schedule (and who knows how no huddle will work out?) so I’m going to nominate the old(er) men in the picture. Pittsburgh just get it done, somehow.

Pick: Steelers @ 2.38

AFC West

If Peyton’s neck holds up, Denver can take this; however, I have my doubts and his inability to throw the deep ball or force it into holes that his peerless football talent sees may cause trouble. I just have to see more of him. The Bolts can get stuffed; until they fire their HC they’re going nowhere and Rivers knows it – he’s starting to look less sharp.

I’m going to go with Kansas in this one. The Chiefs are getting people fit, drafted some interesting personnel and have a young D and capable offense. It’s a stretch but …

Pick: Chiefs @ 4.5

------------------------------------------------

AFC Champions Patriots @ 4.00
NFC Champions Packers @ 4.33

Superbowl Packers @ 7.5; Texans @ 9.5

Spreads

A couple of schedule bets:

Regular Season Wins

I’ve mentioned it already, the Bengals hit a brick wall at half way.

Pick: Cincinnati Under 8 @ 2.00

Lost in the AFC East shakeup, I see the Bills taking advantage of a soft schedule.

Pick: Buffalo Over 8 @ 2.00

Texas @ Tampa Bay

Robbed by a walk-off tater in the 11th ... hot dang!

Tonight sees Darvish take on Chris Archer, who is fresh from Triple-A Durham. Yu Darvish blanked the Rays just 11 days ago, with 10 strikeouts. Archer has pitched OK against the Nats and the Royals, but staying in the wildcard race against the Rangers is a real challenge. This Rays lineup is 6-for-25 off Darvish, whose last four outings have all been quality starts.

I'll give the runs.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 2.25

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 92-89 (+15.26)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

------------------------------------------------------

Texas @ Tampa Bay

Down as practically a pick 'em, I like the Rangers as the value in this one. Both pitchers have been strong L3, but Hellickson has occasionally struggled at home and Texas are a team that have stymied the Rays down the stretch before, hitting Hellickson out of the game.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 2.01

------------------------------------------------------

Results (Level Stakes)
2012 92-88 (+16.26)
2011 128-120 (+27.55)

------------------------------------------------------

Cowboys @ Giants

Two teams I found tough last year, but Dallas are banged up and should find the champeens too strong tonight.

Dallas have made to some moves in the off-season to address their problems over the top on Defense, but Mike Jenkins may not go, and their big draft move for Morris Claiborne has been torpedoed by his injury problems; the Giants' depth out wide may see him tested. Orlando Scandrick is vulnerable too and this lack of established corners may be fatal.

Tom Coughlin will smash it up the middle as usual (look for David Wilson, he's got some moves) but Dallas can stop the run and Manning torched the Cowboys last year, so it's likely through the air that the home team will dominate.

There are caveats; I like DeMarco Murray a lot and if starts finding room he may give Dallas options deep, the Giants are also struggling at left tackle (never good news for a QB) and the front five generally look more suspect than I'd like with DeMarcus Ware and his buddies coming looking for Manning.

Similarly, the Cowboys need to keep Romo upright, he was sacked nine times when these teams met twice last season and so far the Cowboys' O line hasn't looked very stable, particularly the interior. The Giants have some personnel missing in the secondary and Romo has put up numbers against them in the past, but unfortunately the Dallas receiving corps has a number of injuries and off-field issues and isn't looking as dynamic as it should.

I don't like the fact that everyone is coming for the Giants (oppose the herd is the best bet in football!) but I'll give the points.

Pick: Giants -3.5 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 9.00
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.10

------------------------------------------------------

2011 ATS 46-34 (57.5%)

------------------------------------------------------

As usual, the main bet is against the spread, but I'll include some exotics for your consideration.

I'll preview the 2012 season before Sunday's games - how's that for exciting?

Have a great season