orioles

Great, a choker followed by a game between maybe the two most unpredictable teams in football!

I honestly couldn't pick a team to cover with these two, so I'm going to post my one 'No bet' of the year ATS.

Instead, head to SJ and back Over 5 sacks in the game for a small interest; the Eagles don't have an O line and DeMarcus Ware and his buddies must be licking their lips.

Pick: Over 5 sacks @ 2

Those of you sitting in your second homes and ski lodges, financed by my baseball and football picks, will scarcely need reminding that I rarely make a losing selection, and even if I do, I'm not one of those people who curses his luck or trots out some lame excuse ... but the Eagles really stank it up against the Saints last week and should've won!

My view of the Saints' defensive side of the ball is the same: they're awful. If Vick and his O line hadn't completely collapsed (Andy Reid sucked too, incidentally) New Orleans' season would be done. As it is, they won't be able to get to Matt Ryan with such ease today (he has better protection and a sharper release) and Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should make hay. The Falcons can change it up with Michael Turner who is putting up solid, if unspectacular numbers in his footballing dotage.

The New Orleans Saints do have a fine offense of course, and last week saw them begin to find real rhythm. Jimmy Graham is getting fit, and Brees was ruthless over the middle against the hapless Eagles and Atlanta have given up receiving yards this season (if not TDs) so expect the TE to find the endzone. With Darren Sproles probably out, it's RBBC in the backfield - look for Ivory close in.

The defenses look like the tiebreaker here and so the preference must be for the visitors.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 3.25

Andrew Luck is some talent; his maturity and vision are impressive enough, but when you consider he's a rookie and the number one draft pick, then you realise the Colts have something special. That talent is reflected in the Indy offense, which is really coming together and I would look for Wayne, Avery, Hilton and Dwayne Allen to do well against a Jags' D that ranks poorly in every defensive stat. Vick Ballard is also developing nicely and with Donald Brown still carrying injuries, Ballard can become the dominant force in the backfield.

The Jags beat the Colts earlier this season, but Jones-Drew put up 177 yards and a TD in that game, and he's out tonight. The Indianapolis defense has made progress as well as the season has gone on. That said, Indy are missing two starting corners and Gabbert is by no means hopeless - similarly, Rashad Jennings is useful running and catching out of the backfield.

However, the Colts have the momentum and emotions are still running high over Chuck Pagano and they should have too much for the home team tonight.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Vick Ballard @ 2

I didn't think that losing their coach would have a significant effect on the Saints, but it would seem that, if it's not that, a wheel has come off somewhere.

The major problem is the New Orleans' defense: it's horrible. Their pass rush isn't getting home and their secondary is poor (the Saints have given up 300 yards to opposing QBs in all but one game this season) and to make matters worse, they're now coping with injuries.

Michael Vick is behind a creaking offensive line that has seen the Eagles' coaches alter their QB's gameplan somewhat, with a much quicker release and shorter passes designed to avoid the sacks and turnovers that were burning them. That said, tonight should see some shots deep to guys like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. LeSean McCoy should be able to get rolling against a weak run D and as my loyal follower knows, I like a balanced offense.

Drew Brees will like the look of this matchup, as the Eagles have their own problems on defense: so much so a new defensive co-ordinator has come in. The difference seemed to be initially a lot more blitzing, but if you send everyone against Brees, he'll murder you and I expect Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham to have big games as the Philadelphia corners are ponderous and their safeties struggle in coverage. There's less balance here with Sproles out and Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram less explosive options.

This could be a game with a lot of points with neither stop unit showing much form; in terms of the spread, although they're horribly unreliable, I'll favour the visitors.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.83
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2

Atlanta are a solid team: Dallas are not.

Usually, the team that wins the turnover battle, wins the game. With this in mind, consider the fact that Romo has thrown thirteen picks this season, whereas the Falcons as a team have turned the ball over just seven times. Romo tends to be wildly unpredictable and tonight he won't have a run game to fall back on (DeMarco Murray is out and Felix Jones is banged up) and he'll be behind an O line that has had problems keeping him protected.

Atlanta can be beaten deep, and Romo has decent options downfield, but he'll turn the ball over to an offense that can be ruthlessly efficient.

Matt Ryan has been solid this season and if he's given any time, he can look at targets like Roddy White, Julio Jones and the ageless Tony G. Dallas corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr are talented, but they'll need to be on their game. Of course, Ryan has to stay clean, and the Falcons O line will have their hands full with the Dallas' front seven in general and DeMarcus Ware in particular. It'll be interesting to see how Michael Turner figures: he'll certainly get touches close in, but this looks like it'll be a shoot out at the Georgia Dome.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2.4

Go with the emotion of the Giants playing at home for the victims of hurricane Sandy.

Seriously.

Pick: New York Giants -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.1

Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III face off - what's not to like?

This will come down to who can stifle the respective wunderkinds, because each is not merely the most important part of their team's offense in a positional sense (they're the QBs fer chrissakes!) they haven't anyone else to carry the team: Newton hasn't been as sharp this season and so the Panthers have been stymied.

Luckily for Carolina, they're going up against a Washington D that is pretty much hopeless against the pass and middling against the run. Steve Smith is due a TD and worth looking at in the TD market as Newton has begun to show flashes of form recently and the offense in general seems more cohesive - bear in mind too, that the Panthers have run Chicago and Atlanta close on the road and had five losses by a single score.

RGIII has been as advertised, and then some, but rather like their offense, the Carolina' D has made some strides and while it's not a shutdown unit, it has a decent pass rush, can defend the run and is capable of bottling up Griffin.

The Washington receiving corps doesn't inspire at the best of times, but they've started dropping the ball too, so a good deal could rest on Alfred Morris and the run game and he'll see the rock a lot. The Panthers are a little nicked up at LB, so Morris may be in for a big game, but I don't think it'll be enough to cover.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.4

These are two teams with critical flaws that make picking this game a real challenge.

Both teams have QBs that have problems. Matt Cassel is too often a rabbit in the headlights and makes bad decisions, really bad. Cassel has an astonishing 16 turnovers on the season. I prefer him to Brady Quinn though, as Cassel can at least find the open receiver.

Philip Rivers is broken. For a couple of seasons he has regressed badly and there seems little doubt he is coping with some kind of physical problem. Rivers is coming off two bad games and isn't throwing with anything like the required zip, and even when he does, his receivers are putting it on the deck.

The Chiefs' most potent weapon, Jamaal Charles, got 8 touches last week, EIGHT. Romeo Crennel/Brian Daboll are part of the problem in Kansas and unless they give Charles the rock tonight, the Chiefs will struggle mightily - if Trent Richardson can gash the Chargers' run D, then surely JC can.

San Diego need to feed Ryan Mathews, but he has fumbling problems that have seen him benched already this season. Luckily, the Kansas defense is flat out awful. Through the air or on the ground, they can't stop a thing, so Gates and Mathews in particular should do OK: it's worth bearing in mind in the TD market that this is a team that uses the pass to score so look for Malcom Floyd, and Robert Meachem in the endzone.

Hopefully, the message is clear: these teams are pigs and the game is best watched.

In this situation though, I'll take the points.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 @ 1.8 (BSq)

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Malcolm Floyd @ 2

Alex Smith haunts me: he's a limited passer prone to mistakes under pressure that can bring a capable offense to a shuddering halt. After last week's performance, I'm trusting that the gameplan on that side of the ball will feature the run game, with the occasional simple pass for Smith. The Cardinals have talent up front and can pressure Smith, so it's vital to establish Gore and Hunter to slow the quick Arizona pass rush. The home team can be attacked downfield, and it would be nice to see Vernon Davis come out of pass protection and match up on the vulnerable Arizona corners.

The Cardinals have a decent run game (especially since unveiling LaRod Stephens-Howling) and Larry Fitzgerald is almost as talented as ever, but they haven't a QB or offensive line capable of mounting a sustained offensive effort when they go up against a tough defense like San Francisco's. The 49ers will be able to get after Skelton, while dropping safeties into coverage to look after Fitzgerald and Arizona could find themselves with long fields and long third downs all night.

I'll give the points.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.2; San Francisco Defense @ 5

The Giants are small-balling their way to the World Series and the Tigers still don't seem to be able to muster any offense to choke off the momentum.

San Francisco managed another shut out last night - the last time back to back shut outs happened in the World Series was when the Orioles did it in 1966 ... and that's the only other time it's been done!

Cain is something of an unknown quantity where the Detroit hitters are concerned and interestingly, Scherzer (who has been outstanding) has traditionally struggled against the Giants.

This is all about momentum though.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.33