When the wind is out at Wrigley, go Over. It is at the moment, so check it at game time. However, 9.5 is too high for my taste, so I'll leave that to my reader.
Matt Cain had a poor outing last time out, but Villanueva isn't in his class and this is worth a look on the runline with the Giants on a four game streak and cold cubbie bats.
Pick: SF Giants -1.5 @ 2.2
Toronto spent the off-season setting up and signalling a run at things this year, but their start has been less than dazzling. There are signs of life on offense however, and with Fister's poor form and a shambolic Detroit bullpen, the road dog looks a live chance.
The Tigers are loaded on offense too and Josh Johnson has also struggled off the line, so I'll also take some Overs.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays @ 2.21
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.91
After getting the bet busted yesterday by a short hop at 1st in the 8th, I'm afraid to say I like the Unders again here!
Both these pitchers started the season with strong performances. Home plate umpire Jeff Nelson has interesting O/U numbers with lines 8.5 and below, going 7-15 last year. Busch Stadium is a marginal Unders ballpark and if these two can keep the long ball in check (and Westbrook can go reasonably deep into the game with a shaky bullpen) then we can get home.
As a double whammy, with Bailey going 3-7 with a 5.00 ERA in 13 all-time starts against the Cardinals (0-3 with a 5.49 ERA in St. Louis) I'll also take the home dog.
Pick: Under 8.5 @ 1.91
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.05
Toronto are hitting just .223 on the season and even though Sanchez has a less than stellar record against the Blue Jays, he was strong last time out against the Twins.
Similarly, Brandon Morrow pitched well in his last game, against Cleveland, and has developed into a fine pitcher.
If Toronto had any form at the plate, they'd be the value, but I'd like to see them hit in a couple of games first, so I'll go Under instead.
Boston are hitting the cover off it, but Wei-Yin Chen flashed some form against them last season (2-0, 1.38 ERA; 1.39/.250 WHIP/ERA lifetime) Similarly, Clay Buchholz has done well at home against the birds (3-1, 2.04 ERA)
There's nothing quite like baseball for making a monkey out of a tipper! Only 9 runs out on the early game :)
Yu Darvish was brutal in his last outing, flirting with a perfect game, and as a general rule I like to oppose that pitcher next time out. Despite their great performance, the pitcher in question usually throws a lot of pitches and there's often an emotional let-down. There's talk too of a blistered finger - a big problem for a pitcher.
With Weaver on the hill for the visitors, I have to like the Angels at the price.
The Yankees want to go home. CC hasn't got great numbers against the Tigers and the home team are hitting nicely. Verlander has been strong, so I'll break a rule in a game that could see the Yankee well beaten.
Both these pitchers have poor numbers against this afternoon's opposition. Nova and Fister also had a ropey Spring and that Tigers bullpen looks vulnerable.