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NonVintage
21 Oct 21 01:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 1,294 | Blogger: NonVintage's blog
This game looks a tightish call - there isn't much between these teams and they both lost early on to the bang average Seahawks.

However, San Francisco are likely to be overbet as they are coming off their bye-week - generally an overrated factor. They have looked like classic underperformers this year and come here on a run of defeats.

Indianapolis enjoyed a confidence-boosting destruction of an admittedly shoddy Texans outfit, and weren't pushed hard at all. They have looked better than a 2-4 team at times this year, and, the Seahawks Week1 game aside, they have been exceeding expectations overall.

San Francisco are solid enough opponents while not being in any way dynamic or exciting so far, and I don't see a score fest scenario developing (there were only 27 points in their last game against the very dynamic and exciting Cardinals). However, as things stand and have gone so far, I think Indianapolis are going to be the more confident team and the team most likely to perform close to their optimum.

It wouldn't normally be the most obvious game to bet in, but I was expecting this game to be priced up with both teams in the 4/5 to Evs bracket, and Indianapolis at 7/4 or thereabouts looks too generous to pass up.

For the record, my predictor says Indianapolis Colts 24-21 San Francisco 49ers, but it must be due a shocker soon! Grin
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Report therhino October 24, 2021 8:17 AM BST
Any thoughts on Titans and Chiefs? It's got me stuffed how the Chiefs are so heavily favoured. I'll be on the Titans again.
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 11:43 AM BST
Interesting one rhino. This was nearly my selection.

My stats-based model has Kansas 27-30 Tennessee, and recommends a small bet on the Titans.

I went with the Colts-49ers game because I am slightly concerned at how beat up the Titans were after Monday night (affecting several key positions) and also because so much of their attack's potency is wrapped up in one - albeit frightening - weapon. Without Derrick Henry running riot, or distracting and drawing the defense's resources off, I worry that Tennessee lack much oomph.

Kansas' defense has been dreadful this year - potentially poor enough for them to miss out on the post-season - but this week they basically have one job. If they make a half-decent go of that, the Titans might struggle to put enough points on the board.

I wouldn't put you off though rhino, and it should be a cracking and fascinating match-up!
Report therhino October 24, 2021 2:31 PM BST
Chiefs rank 27th in the league in yards given up on the ground. Have to think Henry is going to feast and he'll have to to keep Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs can win of course and I think they should be marginal fave to do so, but 1.52 I can't see. Debatable they should be that at Arrowhead let alone on the road. Titans beat a Bills team that spanked the Chiefs the week before. Game on too early for me so I'm just hoping to wake up to good news.
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 2:58 PM BST
It may well play out like that - fingers crossed!

For the record, I'd have the Titans correct odds at 1.88, so the 2.8 or thereabouts available is definitely better value than 1.52 Kansas...
Report england_v_south_afri October 24, 2021 5:54 PM BST
Joined in the fun. Had a small lay of Kansas also. Defence is hopeless.

GL !!
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 6:35 PM BST
So far so good for the Titans!!!
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 7:10 PM BST
Wow... KCC falling apart on both fronts here... that's 24-0!
Report england_v_south_afri October 24, 2021 7:16 PM BST
Looking good. Nice Call. CoolCoolCool
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:19 PM BST
The Chiefs over reliant on the Mahomes genius, They be lucky to make the play off's this season, the receivers hasnt had a chance, because the chiefs line of scrimmage is still hungover from the Buccs destroying them in the SUper bowl IMO.

To get smashed like this by the Titans is just showing the Chiefs have little chance of winning the superbowl.

The Bengals is the most improved team from last season, chase is a superstar and burrows is coming alive
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:32 PM BST
hardly any close games again Sad
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:32 PM BST
wd on titans call
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:33 PM BST
RAMS, CARDINALS, EAGLES AND BEARS 12/1 will do me this evening.
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:33 PM BST

Oct 24, 2021 -- 2:32PM, wondersobright wrote:


wd on titans call


Bengals and Ravens still could be close.

Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:36 PM BST
That Line of scrimmage for the chiefs is like wet tissue paper
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:38 PM BST
Mahomes is now out
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:39 PM BST
bengals are for real never thought i be saying that at the start of the season
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:44 PM BST
wd on +7 doc never in doubt
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:45 PM BST
good QB worth their weight in gold
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:45 PM BST
i thought they were good when they played the packers also kansas are the man utd of the nfl
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:46 PM BST
Bengals really are an improved side. Mixon, Chase, Burrows etc
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:46 PM BST
king power finally got rid doc
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:47 PM BST
my qb is daniel jones if he had a good defence they would be raving about him shame he plays for the giants
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:49 PM BST
cant say to much wonders but you know what trainer could not have him but had to put up with him
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 8:50 PM BST
Murry is the most exciting QB out there, for a midget he has some throwing arm.

Wonders you got your close game, Falcons doing their usual relinquishing a lead in the 4th Quarter
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:51 PM BST
I know the yard doc
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:52 PM BST
wonders have they said who got the job
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:53 PM BST
nothing announced yet
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:55 PM BST
and we both know who should get the job some trainers now seeing what some have for a while now inc mark johnston
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:57 PM BST
was apprentice to mj doc, been top 5% jockey for a long time
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 8:58 PM BST
on the jockey figs, not winner totals or strike rates or other meaningless bs
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 8:59 PM BST
yeah he on one monday never won a race it's such a bad race but shrewd trainer
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:01 PM BST
tristan yeah
Report dr . atkins October 24, 2021 9:01 PM BST
yep
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:02 PM BST
agree with that
Report tobermory October 24, 2021 9:04 PM BST
Kyle Pitts looking good
Report tobermory October 24, 2021 9:05 PM BST
Belichick really hates the Jets
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:06 PM BST
mail doc
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 9:06 PM BST
Pitts does look good. Miami field defence however has a gap bigger then the channel
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:10 PM BST
go lions Grin
Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 9:12 PM BST
Dolphins...............in the bottom six teams
Report tobermory October 24, 2021 9:13 PM BST
Wow Lions get onside kick
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:14 PM BST
bills 4/5 backers get in the queue
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:15 PM BST

Oct 24, 2021 -- 3:13PM, tobermory wrote:


Wow Lions get onside kick


Grin

Report TOP3MAN October 24, 2021 9:15 PM BST

Oct 24, 2021 -- 3:13PM, tobermory wrote:


Wow Lions get onside kick


typical the Rams are in my Acca.... The Rams cant lose to the Lions

Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:16 PM BST
minnesota lost to buffalo the other year when around 17pt fav so anything can happen
Report tobermory October 24, 2021 9:19 PM BST
lol Detroit do a fake punt now
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:19 PM BST
Laugh
Report wondersobright October 24, 2021 9:20 PM BST
surely they cant troll them again with another onside kick Grin
Report therhino October 24, 2021 9:48 PM BST
The Bengals knocked it out of the park signing Ja'Marr Chase over DeVonta Smith.

Fantastic player, the best wide receiver in the league so far this season as a rookie playing with his college QB. Burrow and Chase going to be a huge problem for years to come.
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 10:06 PM BST
Nice call rhino with the Titans...

Also this is looking like a disastrous mauling for the Bears! 21 points given up in the first quarter and Fields is looking utterly defeated already!
Report therhino October 24, 2021 10:12 PM BST
Bucs gonna put up a cricket score. Might be able to give ole man Brady the entire second half off. And they need to give the fan who gave the football back seasons tickets next year for free, could have sold that ball for tens of thousands Cry
Report therhino October 24, 2021 10:14 PM BST
Haven't seen any highlights from Titans but looks like the Chiefs are in worse shape than imagined. Henry didn't even crack the ton, I was thinking 150 yards...
Report tobermory October 24, 2021 10:21 PM BST
How did the Titans lose to the Jets
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 10:22 PM BST
I think the threat of Henry works almost as well as the man himself - just frees up space for everyone else. Haven't watched the extended highlights, but the RedZone snippets made it look like a pumped Titans dominating a dysfunctional Chiefs throughout...
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 10:23 PM BST

Oct 24, 2021 -- 4:21PM, tobermory wrote:


How did the Titans lose to the Jets


And not that long ago either. Fk knows! Haha!

Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 10:25 PM BST
Detriot seem to have run out of puff quite quickly. I think the Rams are pretty strong, but it was fun while it lasted, and there's still time for them to throw some more funky moves!
Report therhino October 24, 2021 10:27 PM BST
Have a look at this clip from college football yesterday: https://twitter.com/DerekDuke25/status/1452025055387525128

They wiped the touchdown off for unsportsmanlike conduct Shocked Craziest refereeing decision I have ever seen. Seeing the Bucs defense sit down for that row the boat routine after the last strip sack just made me think of it again.
Report therhino October 24, 2021 10:29 PM BST
I think the threat of Henry works almost as well as the man himself - just frees up space for everyone else.

Agree. At some point Julio is going to break out as well. Titans well in the Super Bowl conversation now given they hold the head to head tie breaker against the Bills.
Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 10:31 PM BST

Oct 24, 2021 -- 4:27PM, therhino wrote:


Have a look at this clip from college football yesterday: https://twitter.com/DerekDuke25/status/1452025055387525128They wiped the touchdown off for unsportsmanlike conduct  Craziest refereeing decision I have ever seen. Seeing the Bucs defense sit down for that row the boat routine after the last strip sack just made me think of it again.


Yeah, that's a shocker. Team sport is basically about entertainment and fun; if you stop any degree of showmanship, you are so missing the point.

Report NonVintage October 24, 2021 10:32 PM BST
Wow @ Kyler long throw!
Report SamuelMertensBertens October 25, 2021 2:22 AM BST
rainy football is something else!
Report NonVintage October 25, 2021 2:45 AM BST
Yeah, these conditions are brutal! A lot of fun to watch but probably a nightmare to play in or coach for.
Report SamuelMertensBertens October 25, 2021 3:08 AM BST
And to bet on Scared
Report NonVintage October 25, 2021 4:42 AM BST
Yes, not sure I'd have been so bold if I'd realised how tempestuous San Francisco was going to be, but a win is a win! GrinGrinGrin
Report therhino October 25, 2021 6:49 AM BST
That predictor of yours is hitting all the right notes Cool
Report england_v_south_afri October 25, 2021 11:31 PM BST
vwd both of you with the predictions. Good odds against as well. Cool
Report therhino October 26, 2021 1:07 AM BST
No crystal ball for MNF, no idea about this one but the price on Seattle is tempting. Not convinced about New Orleans.
Report england_v_south_afri October 26, 2021 1:15 AM BST
agree, having a small bet on Seattle @3.15 but not sure about this one. Weather could mean we get a tighter game.

GL pal !!
Report therhino October 26, 2021 1:24 AM BST
Three and outs aplenty tonight. Likely a field position game with the weather and turnovers often decide those so really is pot luck with Geno and Jameis. Gotta take the odds with pot luck.
Report therhino October 26, 2021 1:26 AM BST
BOOM!!! Excited
Report england_v_south_afri October 26, 2021 1:27 AM BST
Boom !!! Grin
Report therhino October 26, 2021 1:29 AM BST
Made me look a little silly though, talk a field position game and immediately throws an 84 yard TD Whoops

I'll take it Cool
Report therhino October 26, 2021 2:21 AM BST
10 minute drive kept alive by a bollocks PI call on 3rd down but only 3 points. Huge red zone stop. Need some positive play on offense here, Alvin starting to look dangerous.
Report england_v_south_afri October 26, 2021 3:28 AM BST
Finally a turnover. Can they post some points this time.
Report therhino October 26, 2021 3:28 AM BST
Play calling from Carroll absolutely infuriating.
Report england_v_south_afri October 26, 2021 3:38 AM BST
Taken a small profit. Off to bed. GL for the rest of the game pal !!
Report therhino October 26, 2021 3:42 AM BST
Don't blame you, this is dire stuff.
Report SamuelMertensBertens October 26, 2021 4:05 AM BST
they can't all be great. at least it's close.
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