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NonVintage
21 Oct 21 01:08
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Date Joined: 28 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 5,334 | Blogger: NonVintage's blog
This game looks a tightish call - there isn't much between these teams and they both lost early on to the bang average Seahawks.

However, San Francisco are likely to be overbet as they are coming off their bye-week - generally an overrated factor. They have looked like classic underperformers this year and come here on a run of defeats.

Indianapolis enjoyed a confidence-boosting destruction of an admittedly shoddy Texans outfit, and weren't pushed hard at all. They have looked better than a 2-4 team at times this year, and, the Seahawks Week1 game aside, they have been exceeding expectations overall.

San Francisco are solid enough opponents while not being in any way dynamic or exciting so far, and I don't see a score fest scenario developing (there were only 27 points in their last game against the very dynamic and exciting Cardinals). However, as things stand and have gone so far, I think Indianapolis are going to be the more confident team and the team most likely to perform close to their optimum.

It wouldn't normally be the most obvious game to bet in, but I was expecting this game to be priced up with both teams in the 4/5 to Evs bracket, and Indianapolis at 7/4 or thereabouts looks too generous to pass up.

For the record, my predictor says Indianapolis Colts 24-21 San Francisco 49ers, but it must be due a shocker soon! Grin

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Replies: 78
By:
therhino
When: 24 Oct 21 08:17
Any thoughts on Titans and Chiefs? It's got me stuffed how the Chiefs are so heavily favoured. I'll be on the Titans again.
By:
NonVintage
When: 24 Oct 21 11:43
Interesting one rhino. This was nearly my selection.

My stats-based model has Kansas 27-30 Tennessee, and recommends a small bet on the Titans.

I went with the Colts-49ers game because I am slightly concerned at how beat up the Titans were after Monday night (affecting several key positions) and also because so much of their attack's potency is wrapped up in one - albeit frightening - weapon. Without Derrick Henry running riot, or distracting and drawing the defense's resources off, I worry that Tennessee lack much oomph.

Kansas' defense has been dreadful this year - potentially poor enough for them to miss out on the post-season - but this week they basically have one job. If they make a half-decent go of that, the Titans might struggle to put enough points on the board.

I wouldn't put you off though rhino, and it should be a cracking and fascinating match-up!
By:
therhino
When: 24 Oct 21 14:31
Chiefs rank 27th in the league in yards given up on the ground. Have to think Henry is going to feast and he'll have to to keep Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs can win of course and I think they should be marginal fave to do so, but 1.52 I can't see. Debatable they should be that at Arrowhead let alone on the road. Titans beat a Bills team that spanked the Chiefs the week before. Game on too early for me so I'm just hoping to wake up to good news.
By:
NonVintage
When: 24 Oct 21 14:58
It may well play out like that - fingers crossed!

For the record, I'd have the Titans correct odds at 1.88, so the 2.8 or thereabouts available is definitely better value than 1.52 Kansas...
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 24 Oct 21 17:54
Joined in the fun. Had a small lay of Kansas also. Defence is hopeless.

GL !!
By:
NonVintage
When: 24 Oct 21 18:35
So far so good for the Titans!!!
By:
NonVintage
When: 24 Oct 21 19:10
Wow... KCC falling apart on both fronts here... that's 24-0!
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 24 Oct 21 19:16
Looking good. Nice Call. CoolCoolCool
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:19
The Chiefs over reliant on the Mahomes genius, They be lucky to make the play off's this season, the receivers hasnt had a chance, because the chiefs line of scrimmage is still hungover from the Buccs destroying them in the SUper bowl IMO.

To get smashed like this by the Titans is just showing the Chiefs have little chance of winning the superbowl.

The Bengals is the most improved team from last season, chase is a superstar and burrows is coming alive
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:32
hardly any close games again Sad
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:32
wd on titans call
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:33
RAMS, CARDINALS, EAGLES AND BEARS 12/1 will do me this evening.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:33

Oct 24, 2021 -- 8:32PM, wondersobright wrote:


wd on titans call


Bengals and Ravens still could be close.

By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:36
That Line of scrimmage for the chiefs is like wet tissue paper
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:38
Mahomes is now out
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:39
bengals are for real never thought i be saying that at the start of the season
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:44
wd on +7 doc never in doubt
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:45
good QB worth their weight in gold
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:45
i thought they were good when they played the packers also kansas are the man utd of the nfl
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:46
Bengals really are an improved side. Mixon, Chase, Burrows etc
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:46
king power finally got rid doc
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:47
my qb is daniel jones if he had a good defence they would be raving about him shame he plays for the giants
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:49
cant say to much wonders but you know what trainer could not have him but had to put up with him
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 20:50
Murry is the most exciting QB out there, for a midget he has some throwing arm.

Wonders you got your close game, Falcons doing their usual relinquishing a lead in the 4th Quarter
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:51
I know the yard doc
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:52
wonders have they said who got the job
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:53
nothing announced yet
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:55
and we both know who should get the job some trainers now seeing what some have for a while now inc mark johnston
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:57
was apprentice to mj doc, been top 5% jockey for a long time
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 20:58
on the jockey figs, not winner totals or strike rates or other meaningless bs
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 20:59
yeah he on one monday never won a race it's such a bad race but shrewd trainer
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 21:01
tristan yeah
By:
dr . atkins
When: 24 Oct 21 21:01
yep
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 21:02
agree with that
By:
tobermory
When: 24 Oct 21 21:04
Kyle Pitts looking good
By:
tobermory
When: 24 Oct 21 21:05
Belichick really hates the Jets
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 21:06
mail doc
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 24 Oct 21 21:06
Pitts does look good. Miami field defence however has a gap bigger then the channel
By:
wondersobright
When: 24 Oct 21 21:10
go lions Grin
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