RATING BASEBALL TEAMS

If a team scores a total of 21 runs in 3 games, their average per game is 7 runs - simple arithmetic.

IMO The outcome of a baseball match is solely determined by the Pitcher. Pitcher ratings are all I would take into consideration.

themightmac

Two teams playing at home:

Both score 18 runs
TEAM A
wins 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth
the other two games are
6-2
8-6

TEAM B wins:
5-3
9-3
4-3
without batting in the 9th.

Which team has a better run per game average?

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On Pitchers:

Pitching stats reflect how the pitcher does.

When betting, you are taking a position on a team result.

A mate of mine who lives and breathes baseball taught me to look at how a team performs when a particular pitcher starts.

He also says to put a line through any starting pitchers stats on three innings or less.

Shapeshifter

I would agree with your mate to a certain point, depending on who the Pitcher is. Even the best pitchers can have an off day and last only 3 innings but pitchers who last only 3 innings regularly do so because they are not very good. I`ve been betting on baseball for a long long time and TBH, the only thing I look at when making a bet is the starting pitchers. The market is created around them. Players in Every team in MLB are good hitters but not many have solid pitching rotations.

All to our own methods and I respect anybody who takes the time and effort like yourself to create their own stats and I wish you all the best with your ratings. If you have any solid bets based on your ratings, I would be interested in knowing, with regards to having a bet on them.

I'll be going "live" in a bit and don't mind posting.  I use ratings as a 'sifter' to focus in on games/value.

We're all after the same thing....winning selections coupled with value.

Here's an example from last night on pitching:

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=521230#gameType=%27R%27

four games:
GAME 1: went 6 innings against texas with team in the lead but team lost due to relief
GAME 2: got the start but not the win.  Twins won
GAME 3: went four innning 9 hits / a HR against.  Got loss
GAME 4: went 2.1 innings allowing 6 runs / team lost 9-0 / got loss

So, his record is 0-2
Twins record when he starts: 1-3

If you put a line through GAME 3 (under 3 innings), team record when he starts is 1-2 which is better than how the team is playing.

Perhaps not the best example since the Twins are .250 this season.

The interesting ones would be a middle team and how they perform when a pitcher is on the mound.

Don't really see your point.  You're putting a line through game 3 where he pitched 4 innings and went for 7 runs.  In game 4 he pitched 2 innings and went for 6 runs. 
Don't be putting lines through anything.  There's no escaping the fact that in those games he was hugely expensive and backing him is the fast track to the poor house.

I should imagine your ratings throw up a bet in every game

re  the opening post

how do we know the first 2 games didn't last 9 innings ?

@utc....sorry, reread my post...my mistake...the line went through game 4 (2.1 innings)

@nilsson....sorry, perhaps not clear.  But I posted games where the team did not have to bat in bottom half of the 9th (leading going into the 8th).

Don't put a line through anything just because he wasn't on the mound for a long time.  There's a reason he was only there for 2 innings and that's because he went for 6 runs.  He was quite rightly hooked.  In short, he's hopeless and don't blind yourself to that fact with ratings and systems.

@curlywurly....every game is rated.  But not every game is a bet.  Comes down to value. 

utc.....LIAM HENDRIKS...sent to the minors. 

But, in general, perspective rather than stats is, in my view, is a better way to way in on whether to bet or not.

I'll be posting one of my "radars".  We'll see how it goes.

over a long part of a season you could eliminate a start from the stats putting it down to a "bad day", but to do it from a small sample seems dangerous and will make the stats flawed.