North American
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12 Sep 10
18:02
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Date Joined:
14 Jan 08
Just been reading the other thread and as i read the racing post every day i am going to keep a track of his profit and loss this season. I know he's prone to getting a few things wrong (i.e player details ect) but from loosely following his tips last year i think a profit might have been shown. So i will update every monday evening on how his selections went and then we will know.
I will carry this on until
(a) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently showing a profit
(b) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently garbage
or
(c)i get fed up of it.
Most of the RP tipsters are garbage, due mainly to the fact that they are obliged to tip and therefore a disciplined 'no bet' isnt an option for them (this doesnt apply to Pullien). There are a few that i do believe show a profit-lets see if Milham is one of them.
For ease of calculations i wont be taking into account the multiple selection where he does his doubles and trebles, ect. Just straight selections.
I will carry this on until
(a) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently showing a profit
(b) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently garbage
or
(c)i get fed up of it.
Most of the RP tipsters are garbage, due mainly to the fact that they are obliged to tip and therefore a disciplined 'no bet' isnt an option for them (this doesnt apply to Pullien). There are a few that i do believe show a profit-lets see if Milham is one of them.
For ease of calculations i wont be taking into account the multiple selection where he does his doubles and trebles, ect. Just straight selections.
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First bet was thursday where he advised 2pts @5/8 on NO -3 vs Vikings.
Selection Won +1.25 pts. |
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Sundays picks
2pt Carolina +7 @5/6 Lost -2pts 1pt San Fran -3 @evs Lost -1pt 1pt Dallas -3 @10/13 Lost -1pt 2pt Miami -3 @10/11 Won +1.82pts 2pt Arizona @1/2 Won +1pt 1pt Cleveland @27/20 Lost -2pts Forget to mention i am ommiting anytime touchdown scorer bets, just tracking the team picks. -3.18 points for the day -1.93 points total. |
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He'll be grateful you didn't include his 1 spread selection yesterday.
1 point sell Seattle performance at 37. (includes 15 points per touchdown, 25 points if the team wins). Make-up 80  |
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My mis-type.
Make-up was 90 |
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be interesting to see how he goes. Most of the post tipsters i reckon are well down in the long term but i have my suspicions that there are a few who would show a profit. Lets see if the nfl guru is one of them.
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Kev Pullein hasn't recorded a losing book for years, the guy is a serious judge....
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Evening Kev
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haha - been called far worse today
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Welcome to betfair
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Pullien is one i suspect does well although he does get some stick on here for his methods (profit is profit though). And for all the comedy his column provides there is no doubting that Steve Palmer knows his golf. I also think the guy who does the bowls (ok i know its a minority sport), Dominic Picksley, is right more often than he's wrong. The 2 Rugby guys Rod Studd and Graham Woods would be interesting to follow too. Dont think much to the football tips to be honest and the Tennis and Boxing advice is woefull.
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Cheers fawwon.
Can't remember who does the arrers but he's pulled out plenty of belters |
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Agree with Jimmy about Rod Studd (league) and Graham Woods (union, his side kick max oram appears to be fine too).
But surely old jermey chapman has to be as good as they have in the sports tipping department. He is their main golf tipster. The problem is he can sometimes back 5 players for a tournament excluding 3 balls, top european player etc!!! However its obvious that if the majority of their tipsters returned a profit then they would tabulate it on a weekly basis and tell the world about it. The second problem is getting on at the advised price eg pricewise, wonderful tipster but the price is always gone before the ink has bloody dried on the paper!!!! BTW i am in ireland. is it true that shops in the UK open at 09.00 and most bookies will allow you to take the price tipped up by pricewise for a limited period (albeit for small stakes) |
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Shops now open at 8.30am (for roulette!) and if it's your regular shop, you should have no problem getting on £25 or so on the Pricewise selection.
I don't buy the Post anymore, but tipsters worth a listen to are Kevin Pullein (14 straight years of profit, yet he annoys impatient forumites with his "recommendation - no bet" write ups), Mark Langdon in the football, Rod Studd for rugby league, Steve Davies in darts, and Tom Segal for the horses. Their major fault in golf is that if Chapman or Palmer are having a bad week, they'll sometimes throw in a 6th (or even 7th) outright pick on the website at the weekend. Better bets and write-ups on snooker can be found (in my opinion) at snookerbacker.com (it's not me). |
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Steve Davies, that's the lad
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Correct me if I'm wrong but the former RL tipster whose name escapes me (Francis something or other) didn't work for the Post much longer after putting up a 20 point win in the biggest bóllock drop possibly in the history of the sport (World Club Challenge match).
THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO WIN (unless it's dribs and drabs or in the case of Pricewise when the average price laid is vastly under that which it's tipped at). |
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successful 20 point win i might add.
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I think just looking at that list of selections (no matter the fact he lost, which is basically random on a small sample) is proof that he's a long term loser.
He has a habit (I've only ever seen the tips posted on here) of picking long term losing subsets that have been proven as the worst bets you can do. Although you can buck that trend with the occasional outlier, you can't select dozens of them in this manner and win in the long term. |
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Mondays picks
2pts Baltimore +2.5 @20/21 won +1.90 1pt Over 44.5 pts SD/KC @4/5 lost -1.00 Total -1.03 pts |
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theresbeenagoal
why do you think the post dont want you to win? Im not saying your wrong, just interested as to your theory. You think they are a little close to the bookmakersi.e advertising ect? Kevster, Not sure about Chapman, he has some good winners but the amount of tips he puts up then he's bound to.......would be interesting to see his p&l. I personally think Palmers better, his pieces on the golf always seem more informative to me. Problem with Chapman is that he's probably obliged to put up 3 ball tips. Just my opinion but i think showing a profit backing 3 balls is very very very difficult due to the nature of the game of golf. Forgot to mention Steve Davies, seems ok on the arrers to me. And Langdon is worth a mention on the footy i think-genuinly find his match previews good pieces. Can remember the post a lot of the time a few years back recommending ''no bets'' very regularly. Seems that they dont really do this anymore. Understandable i guess given a lot of casuals who read it will want a tip to follow for that days action. Im actually a big fan of the paper myself. It gets some abuse on here but in terms of previews, injury updates, form ect. you really cant knock it. |
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Nah, they have the punters' best interests at heart, pointing out bad each way races, big asian moves and tennis injuries for all those paying £1.65 a day [:p]
They are journalists rather than punters and while it would be good to see a profit and loss for every tipster, even at out of date prices that only the privileged few can get, it won't happen because there are a limited number at most that can be showing respectable figures. |
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i did an experiment on chapman's tips last year and he was tailed off after a few months
the doggy boys aint much better - Meldrum's pricewise was decent 2 years ago, donaldson is doing well the last couple of months the rest are well behind to level stakes |
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Chapman is absoultey brutal at the golf but somehow a myth exists that he's doing well. He often picks 3/4 out of the top 5 in the betting. Last year they added a rather fun part to the column with a 'one to avoid' and he managed to bismark the winner 2 weeks in ar row.
On the other hand Palmer has quite a good strike rate and his reasoning much more sound. He's well worth following in his online in-running column at the weekends too. |
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Doesn't Chapman just look for anyone who's done well at the course and then bet them at half the odds they should actually be?
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lee westwood (NAP)
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Feature writers are paid to write knowledgeably and eloquently about the particularly subject concerned in order to fill relevant column inches. Results don`t matter. FACT from someone who has previously worked in the industry.
Problem is that punters (especially the ones who win a few quid)all think that they are superior in knowledge and punting ability than the particular feature writer(s) concerned, but, tbh,the majority couldn`t string two sentences together in an intelligible manner, yet alone work to tight copy deadlines. So give the guy a break. |
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In fairness to Chapman while his tips might not be any good he's a far superior journalist to his editor Bruce Millington who today decides to give us a half page rant about his pet hates which only a couple happen to be sports related.
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Give the guy a break? A lad on here has been banned from the forum for calling him a clown just days before he supposedly spunked 53 points on a spread bet.
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Results don`t matter. FACT from someone who has previously worked in the industry.
well, maybe they do matter, seeing as nobody buys the piece of sh1te anymore |
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of course results matter
hes a fricking tipster...not going for the Booker Prize! |
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I couldn't get a bible this morning, anyone confirm what his picks for tonight were ?
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carolina -3 10/11 2pts
atlanta -6.5 10/11 2pts miami +5.5 10/11 2pts mia-min under 39.5 10/11 1pt cleveland 10/13 1pt dallas -7 10/11 1pt ny jets 27/20 1pt phily 10/27, atlanta 4/11, carolina 10/19, indy 10/23 1pt trebles 1pt acca |
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not included in calculations for this thread are the above multiples plus
m barber anytime td 8/11 1pt indy by 1-6 7/2 0.5pts indy by 7-12 9/2 0.5 pts j addai anytime td 4/6 1pt |
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Has someone had a word or something? He's actually picked some home teams.
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Cheers Chiefdog
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Any spreads? [:p]
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Spreads on 'supremacy plus' (10 for a win, then 1 for each point won by)...
Buy San Diego, 2pts at 14. Buy Philadelphia, 2pts at 12. Looks like Simon's having a better week at the moment (with the Seattle spread bet losing 53 times his stake last week, he needs to). I wonder if there's been a change of regime at the R Post. Football tipster Kevin Pullein (14 straight winning seasons, sometimes bets 0.5pts or 1pt or often writes 'recommendation - no bet') suddenly had a blitz of bets yesterday, recommending bets on all 18 Prem & Championship games (first goal to be scored before 28th minute). I think he made a tiny profit. Stakes very unlike him. |
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Philly spread buyers mortified to see 2 late Detroit TD's which wiped out their profit.
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so it's a marginal profit or loss this week
bit unlucky with philly |
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Again, I don't want to appear the forum Milham apologist, but no serious bettor (with all due respect to y'all!) bets the first two weeks of the football season. I suspect however, that he wouldn't get that wisdom past his editor, so he's on a bit of a hiding to nothing.
It's Thunderdome  |