North American
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
12 Sep 10
18:02
Joined:
Date Joined:
14 Jan 08
Just been reading the other thread and as i read the racing post every day i am going to keep a track of his profit and loss this season. I know he's prone to getting a few things wrong (i.e player details ect) but from loosely following his tips last year i think a profit might have been shown. So i will update every monday evening on how his selections went and then we will know.
I will carry this on until
(a) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently showing a profit
(b) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently garbage
or
(c)i get fed up of it.
Most of the RP tipsters are garbage, due mainly to the fact that they are obliged to tip and therefore a disciplined 'no bet' isnt an option for them (this doesnt apply to Pullien). There are a few that i do believe show a profit-lets see if Milham is one of them.
For ease of calculations i wont be taking into account the multiple selection where he does his doubles and trebles, ect. Just straight selections.
I will carry this on until
(a) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently showing a profit
(b) it becomes obvious the tips are consistently garbage
or
(c)i get fed up of it.
Most of the RP tipsters are garbage, due mainly to the fact that they are obliged to tip and therefore a disciplined 'no bet' isnt an option for them (this doesnt apply to Pullien). There are a few that i do believe show a profit-lets see if Milham is one of them.
For ease of calculations i wont be taking into account the multiple selection where he does his doubles and trebles, ect. Just straight selections.
Show More
Philly spread buyers mortified to see 2 late Detroit TD's which wiped out their profit.
so it's a marginal profit or loss this week
bit unlucky with philly
bit unlucky with philly
Again, I don't want to appear the forum Milham apologist, but no serious bettor (with all due respect to y'all!) bets the first two weeks of the football season. I suspect however, that he wouldn't get that wisdom past his editor, so he's on a bit of a hiding to nothing.
It's Thunderdome
It's Thunderdome
theresbeenagoal Joined: 06 Jan 04
Replies: 1245 13 Sep 10 22:57
Correct me if I'm wrong but the former RL tipster whose name escapes me (Francis something or other) didn't work for the Post much longer after putting up a 20 point win in the biggest bóllock drop possibly in the history of the sport (World Club Challenge match).
THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO WIN (unless it's dribs and drabs or in the case of Pricewise when the average price laid is vastly under that which it's tipped at).
its bullshyte basically.. not ridiculing the poster but the post have a vested interest in wanting punters to get winning tips in their paper and to be honest if you cant see why (whether horses or sports and whether following the tipsters or the form guides etc) then you havent a clue.
ppl always point to the fact that some of the big bookies are shareholders in it or something like that, means nowt.
Replies: 1245 13 Sep 10 22:57
Correct me if I'm wrong but the former RL tipster whose name escapes me (Francis something or other) didn't work for the Post much longer after putting up a 20 point win in the biggest bóllock drop possibly in the history of the sport (World Club Challenge match).
THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO WIN (unless it's dribs and drabs or in the case of Pricewise when the average price laid is vastly under that which it's tipped at).
its bullshyte basically.. not ridiculing the poster but the post have a vested interest in wanting punters to get winning tips in their paper and to be honest if you cant see why (whether horses or sports and whether following the tipsters or the form guides etc) then you havent a clue.
ppl always point to the fact that some of the big bookies are shareholders in it or something like that, means nowt.
orioles Joined: 26 Feb 03
Replies: 3674 19 Sep 10 22:52
Again, I don't want to appear the forum Milham apologist, but no serious bettor (with all due respect to y'all!) bets the first two weeks of the football season. I suspect however, that he wouldn't get that wisdom past his editor, so he's on a bit of a hiding to nothing.
It's Thunderdome Devil
funny that because when you talk to or read about the big sportsbooks in america they have been saying for 2 weeks now that there has been some serious sharp money coming in for the NFL especially as there has been some serious public overreaction to the first weeks games. Sharp punters are ALWAYS around, as there will always be edges or lines to smash into just like the two Dallas lines. BOTH were set way too high and sharps were all over the bears from last tuesday onwards forcing the line down.
Replies: 3674 19 Sep 10 22:52
Again, I don't want to appear the forum Milham apologist, but no serious bettor (with all due respect to y'all!) bets the first two weeks of the football season. I suspect however, that he wouldn't get that wisdom past his editor, so he's on a bit of a hiding to nothing.
It's Thunderdome Devil
funny that because when you talk to or read about the big sportsbooks in america they have been saying for 2 weeks now that there has been some serious sharp money coming in for the NFL especially as there has been some serious public overreaction to the first weeks games. Sharp punters are ALWAYS around, as there will always be edges or lines to smash into just like the two Dallas lines. BOTH were set way too high and sharps were all over the bears from last tuesday onwards forcing the line down.
Well, ok, I wouldn't smash into any football bets in the first two weeks of the season and although I'm certainly not sharp, to coin a phrase, I know a couple of pretty serious bettors in the US whom I've been friends with for 20 years or so, and they would rarely, if ever, touch the first two games.
Different strokes, I suppose - and those Dallas lines were definitely not 'way too high', that's just fantasy.
Different strokes, I suppose - and those Dallas lines were definitely not 'way too high', that's just fantasy.
the dallas line started out at -9.5 or 9 with a lto of early books which was quickly taken down. didnt it end up closer to 7 by game time>?
dallas were VERY VERY poor on offense pre season and it carried on to the game against washington when they were gash imo. chicago (who i dont have any affinity for in any way shape or form) were imo much better than the bare result showed against detroit the same week. and detroit have showed they arent as bad as a lot think this season in their first two games without winning
therefore imo the line was very wrong.
dallas were VERY VERY poor on offense pre season and it carried on to the game against washington when they were gash imo. chicago (who i dont have any affinity for in any way shape or form) were imo much better than the bare result showed against detroit the same week. and detroit have showed they arent as bad as a lot think this season in their first two games without winning
therefore imo the line was very wrong.
and the line was and is also wrong for the giants game later for me..
ive taken the giants (who were better than the score suggests last week) on the match odds and took the 5 earlier in the week.
ive taken the giants (who were better than the score suggests last week) on the match odds and took the 5 earlier in the week.
It's certainly true that money came for the Bears late, whether that indicates the line was 'way too high' is another matter! GL with the Giants, I'm keeping my £2 in my pocket.
its bullshyte basically.. not ridiculing the poster but the post have a vested interest in wanting punters to get winning tips in their paper and to be honest if you cant see why (whether horses or sports and whether following the tipsters or the form guides etc) then you havent a clue.
You're not ridiculing me then effectively say I haven't a clue. Bit of a contradiction really. I wouldn't mind but you have given no argument as to why that is the case.
I stand by what I said, they will not give a winning strategy or identify a profitable approach and the vast majority of their sports tipsters will be doing their brains with no regards whatsoever to their readers. "Dan Childs tipped 10/3 Brechin City on Saturday (but is doing 15% to advised stakes on the season)" doesn't read great does it?*
* I have no idea how Dan Childs is performing, no offence intended.
You're not ridiculing me then effectively say I haven't a clue. Bit of a contradiction really. I wouldn't mind but you have given no argument as to why that is the case.
I stand by what I said, they will not give a winning strategy or identify a profitable approach and the vast majority of their sports tipsters will be doing their brains with no regards whatsoever to their readers. "Dan Childs tipped 10/3 Brechin City on Saturday (but is doing 15% to advised stakes on the season)" doesn't read great does it?*
* I have no idea how Dan Childs is performing, no offence intended.
its simply because the average punter is a mug who doesnt REALLY give a fk about where the best price etc is as they punt in shops and a lot of ppl DONT have access to all bookies..
so they read the post whther buying it or in the shops and take what the tipsters say into account and i dare say punt what they give IF they think the reasoning is ok ,.,.. so if the racing post continually puts up duff tips and losing runs going on months etc it is detrimental to them id say.. wouldnt you?
and im not ridiculing you at all i dont know you mate.. but surely a paper that gives out tips on sports and horses would like their customers to at least THINK that the info they give out is good info and well researched..
so they read the post whther buying it or in the shops and take what the tipsters say into account and i dare say punt what they give IF they think the reasoning is ok ,.,.. so if the racing post continually puts up duff tips and losing runs going on months etc it is detrimental to them id say.. wouldnt you?
and im not ridiculing you at all i dont know you mate.. but surely a paper that gives out tips on sports and horses would like their customers to at least THINK that the info they give out is good info and well researched..
You have re-inforced my point, they don't want you to win - the Post is for betting shop fodder. Betting shop fodder who do in 15-20% on turnover. The winners, be it pricewise at 25/1 or milham's dart hitting the right side of the handicap, are inconsequential - I could set my ageing dog a task to make selections and be erudite around them to come close to being as successful long term.
he is just not that good to be honest - at least he chooses his own picks but writing it on a sunday he has lost his value - maybe a tuesday write up would put him in better stead and thus take into account the vegas line from the start...but i doubt the post care enough to let him do that..
Don't often disagree with you O sir, but have to here.
The start of the season is where some of the really serious guys have a bigger edge over the linesmakers as it's the time where's there's less data to compile a proper mathematical line and so accurate projections are more difficult to get hold of. (Even linesmakers can make projections based on 12 weeks data, it becomes a much easier job)
I do agree though that sharp players are around all season long, it's a matter of approaching each week in a different matter.
In baseball for instance, I know of more than one person (me being one) who have to shut down at midseason as the current season's info becomes more relevant - and I'm better working from projections like PECOTA as a base. That doesn't mean that other people will have to shut down during that period, and it's likely that some do the exact opposite to me and come into their own during the second half of the season.
I don't think it's correct to rule out weeks one and two as betting grounds. The Chiefs and Seahawks bets week one this season and the Falcons 2-3 seasons ago (2/1 at home to Detroit) were some of the better value bets in ages.
I can understand that people who place bets based on what they see rather than numbers shut down early in the season, nothing wrong with that either. For me the key is to (attempt to) slide seamlessly between projection as the season progresses.
The start of the season is where some of the really serious guys have a bigger edge over the linesmakers as it's the time where's there's less data to compile a proper mathematical line and so accurate projections are more difficult to get hold of. (Even linesmakers can make projections based on 12 weeks data, it becomes a much easier job)
I do agree though that sharp players are around all season long, it's a matter of approaching each week in a different matter.
In baseball for instance, I know of more than one person (me being one) who have to shut down at midseason as the current season's info becomes more relevant - and I'm better working from projections like PECOTA as a base. That doesn't mean that other people will have to shut down during that period, and it's likely that some do the exact opposite to me and come into their own during the second half of the season.
I don't think it's correct to rule out weeks one and two as betting grounds. The Chiefs and Seahawks bets week one this season and the Falcons 2-3 seasons ago (2/1 at home to Detroit) were some of the better value bets in ages.
I can understand that people who place bets based on what they see rather than numbers shut down early in the season, nothing wrong with that either. For me the key is to (attempt to) slide seamlessly between projection as the season progresses.
As to the journalistic part of things I don't think it can be hard to write a preview of the game and end with "no bet" or "lean" if there's nothing that jumps out.
O only says that because his 2 picks have tanked in a big big way 
Well, Lori, I always enjoy it when people call a game a week, or even 2 years, after it has finished! 
It's an interesting idea: that when games are at their most unpredictable, people will make big bets, but it seems rather contradictory. The Vegas linemakers (for example) aren't dummies and sharp players, no matter how sharp, are not imbued with magical powers. If you're suggesting betting dogs in the first couple of weeks is profitable (rather like opposing star pitchers at the beginning of the baseball season) then fair enough, although I've never seen any consistent evidence of the trend. I still maintain that serious bettors will avoid early football games: they're just too unpredictable to invest heavily.
Ultimately, though, we all follow our instincts and experience and decide which way to go. It's all good
It's an interesting idea: that when games are at their most unpredictable, people will make big bets, but it seems rather contradictory. The Vegas linemakers (for example) aren't dummies and sharp players, no matter how sharp, are not imbued with magical powers. If you're suggesting betting dogs in the first couple of weeks is profitable (rather like opposing star pitchers at the beginning of the baseball season) then fair enough, although I've never seen any consistent evidence of the trend. I still maintain that serious bettors will avoid early football games: they're just too unpredictable to invest heavily.
Ultimately, though, we all follow our instincts and experience and decide which way to go. It's all good
'Big way' is an understatement!
But to be fair, I did open my annual thread with the caveat that betting early games is a mistake and should be avoided.
But to be fair, I did open my annual thread with the caveat that betting early games is a mistake and should be avoided.
Well, Lori, I always enjoy it when people call a game a week, or even 2 years, after it has finished!
Not really suggesting blanket betting all dogs before the event, just the ones that have clear good reasons for being backed (I posted two of these at the sites I was posting at at the times, and I discussed seattle at length in the chatroom prematch too, which is why I chose those three, and not the whole host of other examples)
The whole reason that there's value available early is that the games are unpredictable... you can't win money on the toss of a coin because the odds are known.
I guess it depends where you're getting your picks from. If you're computer modelling along the lines of KUBIAK or something stronger, then I'd imagine that the early games are far better for you. If you're using your eyes and wits and knowledge, then I agree that later in the season is better.
I truly believe that a rounded bettor should be doing both.
Not really suggesting blanket betting all dogs before the event, just the ones that have clear good reasons for being backed (I posted two of these at the sites I was posting at at the times, and I discussed seattle at length in the chatroom prematch too, which is why I chose those three, and not the whole host of other examples)
The whole reason that there's value available early is that the games are unpredictable... you can't win money on the toss of a coin because the odds are known.
I guess it depends where you're getting your picks from. If you're computer modelling along the lines of KUBIAK or something stronger, then I'd imagine that the early games are far better for you. If you're using your eyes and wits and knowledge, then I agree that later in the season is better.
I truly believe that a rounded bettor should be doing both.
Results from Sunday
1pt Dallas-7 @10/11 Lost -1.00pt
1pt Jets @27/20 Won +1.35pts
0.5 Indy by 1-6 @7/2 lost -0.5pts
0.5 Indy by 7-12 @9/2 lost -0.5pts
2pts Carolina -3 @10/11 lost -2.00pts
2pts Atlanta -6.5 @10/11 won +1.82pts
2pts Miami +5.5 @10/11 won +1.82pts
1pt Under 39.5 Miami/vikings @10/11 won +0.91pts
1pt Cleveland @10/13 lost -1.00pts
P/L for day = 0.90pts
Total season p/l = -0.13pts
For what its worth, i agree with Orioles in that there are very few bets you should really be having on NFL in weeks 1 and 2. I found only Arizona in week 1 (won just) and washington last night (lost just). Milham of course doesnt have the luxury of keeping just a watching eye.
1pt Dallas-7 @10/11 Lost -1.00pt
1pt Jets @27/20 Won +1.35pts
0.5 Indy by 1-6 @7/2 lost -0.5pts
0.5 Indy by 7-12 @9/2 lost -0.5pts
2pts Carolina -3 @10/11 lost -2.00pts
2pts Atlanta -6.5 @10/11 won +1.82pts
2pts Miami +5.5 @10/11 won +1.82pts
1pt Under 39.5 Miami/vikings @10/11 won +0.91pts
1pt Cleveland @10/13 lost -1.00pts
P/L for day = 0.90pts
Total season p/l = -0.13pts
For what its worth, i agree with Orioles in that there are very few bets you should really be having on NFL in weeks 1 and 2. I found only Arizona in week 1 (won just) and washington last night (lost just). Milham of course doesnt have the luxury of keeping just a watching eye.
Going back to Rod Studds rugby league picks,he was good last season but this season he has generally been dire
Mark Langham in the Racing Post is the worst tipster ever but he`s a good sports writer and has been in the job for years. Point proven.
i must admit, I do knock him a bit, but it is hard job to write up the night before when value has gone...i think he should start a thread on here on Tuesday with his proper picks and enjoy the banter...we all put up ours and sometimes good, sometimes great...there to be shot at...but he does have a good job to be fair (I would like it - shame I did a modern geography degree and not journo lol)
He used to post regularly when he wrote for the sportsman but all he ever got was dogs abuse. The guy doesn`t need to justify his views to forumists. No point in him posting here. He`s got a good job and is well paid and I say good luck to him. Too many jealous people on here. People hate to see others getting on in this country in all walks of life. Sad but true.
If you put yourself out there as a tipster and you don't understand the markets you're betting in, then you're going to face criticism, it really is that simple.
It's nothing to do with jealousy, hate or anything like that. It's as simple as pulling up someone who's giving tips that will cost money in the long term. It's not a put down on his journalistic ability, his character as a person or anything else you're trying to turn it into. He's just a bad gambler, or at least if he bets the stuff he posts he is.
It's nothing to do with jealousy, hate or anything like that. It's as simple as pulling up someone who's giving tips that will cost money in the long term. It's not a put down on his journalistic ability, his character as a person or anything else you're trying to turn it into. He's just a bad gambler, or at least if he bets the stuff he posts he is.
He also tipped
Oakland -3.5 (loss)
Denver -3.5 (win)
Green Bay -13.5 (win)
for a non racing post site this week.
Oakland -3.5 (loss)
Denver -3.5 (win)
Green Bay -13.5 (win)
for a non racing post site this week.
He`s got a good job and is well paid and I say good luck to him.
Well, I guess that depends upon your definition of 'a good job', 'well paid' and what you understand by 'money for old rope'
It's an interesting point that someone presenting their tips need not justify them: it's one I intend to rely on!
Well, I guess that depends upon your definition of 'a good job', 'well paid' and what you understand by 'money for old rope'
It's an interesting point that someone presenting their tips need not justify them: it's one I intend to rely on!
Milhams pick for monday has not been included as the tip wasnt readable in my edition of the racing post-looked like a printing error.
It just said recomendation New Orlea................... after talking about how they should cover the cap. we'l give him the benfit of the doubt and omit the selection.
It just said recomendation New Orlea................... after talking about how they should cover the cap. we'l give him the benfit of the doubt and omit the selection.
Can't let a 60 point or so loss go unnoticed im afraid Jimmy
http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/racing-post-london-england-the/mi_7999/is_2010_Sept_20/saints-san-fran-nfl/ai_n55288666/
http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/racing-post-london-england-the/mi_7999/is_2010_Sept_20/saints-san-fran-nfl/ai_n55288666/
sundays picks
new orleans -3 20/21 2pts -2
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts +4.78
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts +3.74
+2.42pts
overall p/l +2.19
new orleans -3 20/21 2pts -2
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts +4.78
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts +3.74
+2.42pts
overall p/l +2.19
new orleans -3 20/21 2pts -2
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts +1.82
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts +1.73
-2.55 pts
Unless I'm missing something in the way you've listed things.
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts +1.82
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts +1.73
-2.55 pts
Unless I'm missing something in the way you've listed things.
Meanwhile a proper tipster tipped
pitts 7pts @ 1.74
miami/ jets overs 10 pts @ 2.2
saints/colts double 5pts @ 2.24
cowboys 4pts @ 2.25
chiefs 4pts @ 2.3
for a 22.38 pt profit
see what this superb tipster tips up next week at WWW.KJBETTING.CO.UK
pitts 7pts @ 1.74
miami/ jets overs 10 pts @ 2.2
saints/colts double 5pts @ 2.24
cowboys 4pts @ 2.25
chiefs 4pts @ 2.3
for a 22.38 pt profit
see what this superb tipster tips up next week at WWW.KJBETTING.CO.UK
Will you be tipping those games after they were played too?
week 3 sunday picks
2pts NO -3 @20/21 lost -2.00
1pt Indy -5.5 @10/11 won +0.91
2pts Jets +2.5 @10/11 won +1.82
2pts Jets score >16 points @5/6 won +1.67
3pts San Fran -2.5 @10/11 lost -3.00
2pts Arizona -4.5 @10/11 lost -2.00
2pts Cincinati -3 @20/23 won +2.61
sunday total = +0.01pts
Total season = -0.12 pts
2pts NO -3 @20/21 lost -2.00
1pt Indy -5.5 @10/11 won +0.91
2pts Jets +2.5 @10/11 won +1.82
2pts Jets score >16 points @5/6 won +1.67
3pts San Fran -2.5 @10/11 lost -3.00
2pts Arizona -4.5 @10/11 lost -2.00
2pts Cincinati -3 @20/23 won +2.61
sunday total = +0.01pts
Total season = -0.12 pts
2pts Cincinati -3 @20/23 won +2.61
Can someone explain to me why everyone's getting different numbers to me on how much this won?
Can someone explain to me why everyone's getting different numbers to me on how much this won?
my apologys lori, ive dropped a b*llock with that one. Was eating as well as typing
It is actually a +1.74 profit
Sunday total = -0.86
Season total = -0.99
It is actually a +1.74 profit
Sunday total = -0.86
Season total = -0.99
Orioles, I`m brilliant at tipping winners after the results too!!
In all fairness to Nilsson Schmilsson - Everybody`s Talkin about this tipster and the Joy his tips have given punters. How have we managed so long Without You.
In all fairness to Nilsson Schmilsson - Everybody`s Talkin about this tipster and the Joy his tips have given punters. How have we managed so long Without You.
jeez you're right lori, my maths was shocking. quick calculations in the head never come out right!
Milhams Monday pick
Green Bay outright 3pts at 4/6
lost -3.00 pts
total season results= -3.99 points.
Green Bay outright 3pts at 4/6
lost -3.00 pts
total season results= -3.99 points.
the tips are always posted on saturday at kjbetting.co.uk
good job mightymac of getting joy in there
good job mightymac of getting joy in there
I`ll check it out mate on Saturday.
Brilliant song Joy and a brilliant singer/songwriter was Harry.
Brilliant song Joy and a brilliant singer/songwriter was Harry.
Sunday 3rd October picks and results were
1pt Baltimore +2.5 @10/11 won +0.91pts
1pt Philly -5.5 @10/11 lost -1.00pts
1pt Under 43pts Phil/Wash @10/11 won +0.91pts
3pts Giants -3 @10/13 won +2.31pts
1pt over 43.5 Chi/NYG @10/11 lost -1.00pts
3pts Indy -7 @10/11 lost -3.00pts
2pts Atlanta -6 @10/11 lost -2.00pts
2pts Denver +7 @4/5 won +1.60pts
for the day = -1.27pts
For season = -5.26pts
1pt Baltimore +2.5 @10/11 won +0.91pts
1pt Philly -5.5 @10/11 lost -1.00pts
1pt Under 43pts Phil/Wash @10/11 won +0.91pts
3pts Giants -3 @10/13 won +2.31pts
1pt over 43.5 Chi/NYG @10/11 lost -1.00pts
3pts Indy -7 @10/11 lost -3.00pts
2pts Atlanta -6 @10/11 lost -2.00pts
2pts Denver +7 @4/5 won +1.60pts
for the day = -1.27pts
For season = -5.26pts
Surprised he got the Giants, wonder if he's finally learning something?
Actually scanning that list, probably not, although there's certainly something new going on in his strategy, he seems to be going further than just picking teams he's heard of.
A buy of Miami penalty yards for 0.5pts at 45, make-up 40. (Loss 2.5pts).
Buy Miami performance for 2 points at 51. Make-up zero. (Loss 102pts. Good God).
Buy Miami performance for 2 points at 51. Make-up zero. (Loss 102pts. Good God).
Monday night football selection was
Miami outright @evens for 3pts
-3.00pts
Total for season = -8.26pts
Getting worse. Really cant understand some of his picks. He's picking 7 or 8 games a week to go at which is far far too many.
Miami outright @evens for 3pts
-3.00pts
Total for season = -8.26pts
Getting worse. Really cant understand some of his picks. He's picking 7 or 8 games a week to go at which is far far too many.
To be fair, point proven, the referee's stopped the fight. This isn't the forum, but would be interesting if someone did the same for the rest of them (it's unfair to single one out).
theresbeenagoal
There is a similar thread on the football forum (called 'Racing Post thread') where someone is keeping an eye on the weekend picks.
Basically those tipsters we suspected to be rubbish, are rubbish. They still get paid a salary though.
There is a similar thread on the football forum (called 'Racing Post thread') where someone is keeping an eye on the weekend picks.
Basically those tipsters we suspected to be rubbish, are rubbish. They still get paid a salary though.
That thread has disappeared I think (Big Brother is watching us).
Going to keep tracking for a few more weeks yet, early in the season when form is scratchy so would be unfair to deny Milham a chance to get the winners on the board. I actually enjoy his pieces in the post on sundays and he probably knows his stuff enough to find some winners. Where he is seriously handicapped though is by being 'forced' into picking 6 or 7 bets every week-i dont think many people could turn a profit having to do this.
correct jimmy diamond. Mr Milham does not have the luxury (like us) of saying "no bet" this week if he isn`t strong on anything, as I said earlier in the thread, he is forced to make a pick whether he has a strong opinion or not, especially on the tv games. Nobody on here could do any better given the circumstances, i.e. forced picks, copy submitted 48 hours before kick off, line changes, etc, etc.
*Actually that's not fair, I do have the luxury of "no bet" , however if you gave me 50% strike rate for the no bet weeks, I'd still be up.
Milham's picks are actually bad picks for the most part, he's unlucky to be so far down, but he'll struggle to hit 50% because his picks are THAT poor in general.
That said, now I've read some of his stuff (as he writes for multiple places and tips different stuff at each one) I believe he knows more about the sport than I do. He just doesn't have the kind of mind that converts it into gambling.
Milham's picks are actually bad picks for the most part, he's unlucky to be so far down, but he'll struggle to hit 50% because his picks are THAT poor in general.
That said, now I've read some of his stuff (as he writes for multiple places and tips different stuff at each one) I believe he knows more about the sport than I do. He just doesn't have the kind of mind that converts it into gambling.
Nilsson Schmilsson Joined: 12 Jan 10
Replies: 5905 27 Sep 10 16:43
Meanwhile a proper tipster tipped
pitts 7pts @ 1.74
miami/ jets overs 10 pts @ 2.2
saints/colts double 5pts @ 2.24
cowboys 4pts @ 2.25
chiefs 4pts @ 2.3
for a 22.38 pt profit
see what this superb tipster tips up next week at WWW.KJBETTING.CO.UK
seen as you're probably not going to post a losing week i will.
6pt acca lost (Colts lost)
5.5 pts Rams @ evens win
2.5 pts Bears & 3pts Bears +4 both lost
6pt loss.
Replies: 5905 27 Sep 10 16:43
Meanwhile a proper tipster tipped
pitts 7pts @ 1.74
miami/ jets overs 10 pts @ 2.2
saints/colts double 5pts @ 2.24
cowboys 4pts @ 2.25
chiefs 4pts @ 2.3
for a 22.38 pt profit
see what this superb tipster tips up next week at WWW.KJBETTING.CO.UK
seen as you're probably not going to post a losing week i will.
6pt acca lost (Colts lost)
5.5 pts Rams @ evens win
2.5 pts Bears & 3pts Bears +4 both lost
6pt loss.
still only about 160 points better off than millam 
Fair comment Lori. I`ve got a friend who knows more about the game than I`ll ever know. Can name every player and position in every team squad, offense, defense, special teams, etc. including full coaching staff. And he can quote every score and give precise details of every match played way back. But, in all honesty, he`s the lousiest gambler on the NFL I`ve ever seen!! As you say about Mr Milham, "He just doesn't have the kind of mind that converts it into gambling".
Picks and results for Sunday and Monday
2pts Indy -7 @10/11 won +1.82
1pt San Diego -6 @10/11 lost -1.00
1pt san francisco -3 @10/11 lost -1.00
3pts Atlanta -3 @evs won +3.00
1pt Carolina -0.5 @10/11 lost -1.00
1pts Green Bay -2.5 @20/21 lost -1.00
2pts Jets -3.5 @20/23 won +1.74
+2.56 for the week
-5.70 points for the season so far.
2pts Indy -7 @10/11 won +1.82
1pt San Diego -6 @10/11 lost -1.00
1pt san francisco -3 @10/11 lost -1.00
3pts Atlanta -3 @evs won +3.00
1pt Carolina -0.5 @10/11 lost -1.00
1pts Green Bay -2.5 @20/21 lost -1.00
2pts Jets -3.5 @20/23 won +1.74
+2.56 for the week
-5.70 points for the season so far.
I found Simon Milham yesterday in the Evening Standard tipping a horse in the Cesarevic !
Glad to see he's disproving my claim!
Ace
Ace
So as not to kick a man when he's down, there were 4 recommended bets last night on the Jacksonville game (2 spreads, 2 fixed odds), 4 losers, and I'll leave it at that.
The weekend of the 17th october's results were
2pts Miami +3.5 @10/11 won +1.82
2pts Dallas +1.5 @10/11 lost -2.00
1pt Indy -3 @10/11 lost -1.00
1pt over 43.5 Indy/Washington @10/11 won +0.91
4pts San Deigo -8 @10/11 lost -4.00
2pts Denver @33/20 lost -2.00
1pt Philly -2.5 @10/11 won +0.91
1pt Jags +3 @4/5 lost -1.00
1pt over 44.5pts Ten/Jack @10/11 lost -1.00
-7.36 points for week 6
-13.36 points for the season so far.
Cant for the life of me think why he invested 4pts in san diego. Thats a horible tip.
2pts Miami +3.5 @10/11 won +1.82
2pts Dallas +1.5 @10/11 lost -2.00
1pt Indy -3 @10/11 lost -1.00
1pt over 43.5 Indy/Washington @10/11 won +0.91
4pts San Deigo -8 @10/11 lost -4.00
2pts Denver @33/20 lost -2.00
1pt Philly -2.5 @10/11 won +0.91
1pt Jags +3 @4/5 lost -1.00
1pt over 44.5pts Ten/Jack @10/11 lost -1.00
-7.36 points for week 6
-13.36 points for the season so far.
Cant for the life of me think why he invested 4pts in san diego. Thats a horible tip.
Im now 100% convinced of what I've suggested previously.
I found a writeup on the TEN/JAX game which basically said that both teams like to run the ball a lot, and then he tipped over 44.5
There's nothing wrong with the writeup and then he reaches the wrong conclusion from the facts he presented in the article!
Methinks he doesn't understand totals at all.
I found a writeup on the TEN/JAX game which basically said that both teams like to run the ball a lot, and then he tipped over 44.5
There's nothing wrong with the writeup and then he reaches the wrong conclusion from the facts he presented in the article!
Methinks he doesn't understand totals at all.
*or home advantage.
The SD pick is dire as you already mentioned. Oddly the Jax pick is entirely acceptable, until the totals part.
The SD pick is dire as you already mentioned. Oddly the Jax pick is entirely acceptable, until the totals part.
There's nothing wrong with the writeup and then he reaches the wrong conclusion from the facts he presented in the article!
Exactly the point i made that got me banned....the guy writes one thing in his column, and then tips up the opposite thing at the end!
Either covering his bases, or should be arrested for impersonating a tipster.
[b]Ace[/b]
Exactly the point i made that got me banned....the guy writes one thing in his column, and then tips up the opposite thing at the end!
Either covering his bases, or should be arrested for impersonating a tipster.
[b]Ace[/b]
I take NO pleasure in others' misfortunes (although don't get me started on Tony Cascarino on the football forum!). Just stating the facts...
Simon Milham's R Post spread recommendations today -
Buy Dallas 'supremacy plus', 2 pts at 12. (10 points for the winning team, plus 1 point per point won by). CAN MAKE UP AS A NEGATIVE FIGURE. :cry:]
Buy Washington 'win index', 1 pt at 34. (25 points for a win, plus 1 point for every point scored).
Simon Milham's R Post spread recommendations today -
Buy Dallas 'supremacy plus', 2 pts at 12. (10 points for the winning team, plus 1 point per point won by). CAN MAKE UP AS A NEGATIVE FIGURE. :cry:]
Buy Washington 'win index', 1 pt at 34. (25 points for a win, plus 1 point for every point scored).
God hates him. Washington have just fumbled away a last minute 7 
Hows he been doing?
A quick look at his blog at the other place shows his two tips last week:
Seattle/Saints Under 45.5 (lol)
Indy -2.5
Guarantees in life; death, taxes, and milham losers.
A quick look at his blog at the other place shows his two tips last week:
Seattle/Saints Under 45.5 (lol)
Indy -2.5
Guarantees in life; death, taxes, and milham losers.
themightymac 08 Oct 10 00:43
Fair comment Lori. I`ve got a friend who knows more about the game than I`ll ever know. Can name every player and position in every team squad, offense, defense, special teams, etc. including full coaching staff. And he can quote every score and give precise details of every match played way back. But, in all honesty, he`s the lousiest gambler on the NFL I`ve ever seen!! As you say about Mr Milham, "He just doesn't have the kind of mind that converts it into gambling".
knowing who coaches who and who won 1974 super bowl mean nothing - if you want to gamble you need to understand the game and how match ups work
Fair comment Lori. I`ve got a friend who knows more about the game than I`ll ever know. Can name every player and position in every team squad, offense, defense, special teams, etc. including full coaching staff. And he can quote every score and give precise details of every match played way back. But, in all honesty, he`s the lousiest gambler on the NFL I`ve ever seen!! As you say about Mr Milham, "He just doesn't have the kind of mind that converts it into gambling".
knowing who coaches who and who won 1974 super bowl mean nothing - if you want to gamble you need to understand the game and how match ups work
Lol...just checked the nfl blog @ the daq. Looks like hes taken a shot at this forum (and ace high from what i gather). Hes totally seen his ar$e! Havent seen someone this rattled since apollo creed took one on the chin against Ivan Drago.
Im more than happy to have a tipping compeition against you next season Si. Ill be entering the las vegas hilton super contest, why dont you get involved....or are you worried that you will bat below .500?
Ace
Im more than happy to have a tipping compeition against you next season Si. Ill be entering the las vegas hilton super contest, why dont you get involved....or are you worried that you will bat below .500?
Ace
He tipped up Atlanta outright @ 40's (ugh), and Atlanta win index @ 34 yesterday.
It made up as a -32 point loser.
Thanks for showing up
It made up as a -32 point loser.
Thanks for showing up
kjbetting.co.uk went 3/4 this week
and all 3 superbowl picks shortened 
You have to be a talented blogger to pull that off, Ron 
good stuffjust to point out you've made a little error in the ante post round up, 2 pts for spotting it
Gamblers are a fickle lot. You can insult their wifes, sons, daughters and other family members or call them adulterers, crooks, thieves and many other insulting names and they won`t bat an eyelid, but say that they are a lousy gambler and all hell will let loose. They all like to think they are the best. Braggards the lot of them.
Funny how there is never a comment on this thread when Milham is doing well, then when he hits a bad week, all the "wanabe" tipsters come out from under the floorboards to have a go at the guy. If you don`t rate his tips, then don`t back them. Couldn`t be any simpler.
Regards his big Atlanta loss, that was a big big surprise. Show me someone that thought Giants would beat them so easily and I`ll show you a liar. We`ve all fancied teams that have ended up getting hammered at some time in the past.
Regards his big Atlanta loss, that was a big big surprise. Show me someone that thought Giants would beat them so easily and I`ll show you a liar. We`ve all fancied teams that have ended up getting hammered at some time in the past.
MM - We are entitled to criticize a professional tipsters leans. Particularly when the journo in question has people banned from this forum for doing so (and the shills at betfair duly oblige).
I don't read his tips any more (dont buy the RP) but hear about what hes tipping up occasionally. By and large, his tips are horrible. A monkey throwing darts at the point spreads would fare better.
The tipster leaves himself open to criticism with his actions.
I don't read his tips any more (dont buy the RP) but hear about what hes tipping up occasionally. By and large, his tips are horrible. A monkey throwing darts at the point spreads would fare better.
The tipster leaves himself open to criticism with his actions.
You post tips/write a blog, you take your licks.
You get PAID to do it, then you should expect dog's abuse if you're no good.
That's not a comment on Millhouse's tips, I haven't seen them for a long, long time - it's the way of the betting world.
You get PAID to do it, then you should expect dog's abuse if you're no good.
That's not a comment on Millhouse's tips, I haven't seen them for a long, long time - it's the way of the betting world.
I agree partly with what you guys are saying, but, imo professional tipsters, with newspapers, are on a hiding to nothing and I should know. Nobody ever sees or compliments the winning tips, but when one has a bad day at the office all hell lets loose. Punters only remember the losing ones particularly when it costs them money.
If I or anybody else on here doesn`t fancy any of the Divisional Play-Off games this week we simply don`t bet. In Milham`s defence, he doesn`t have that option, he has to produce copy and give an opinion regardless.
He does however need to accept this scenario and take any criticism like water off a duck`s back. It`s part and package of tipping. Every punter believes that they are the best and can do better than the appointed newspaper tipster. I don`t know what was posted when Milham allegedly got people banned from the forum because of their postings, but it would be natural to assume that the comments were personal and of an abusive nature.
I like Orioles blogs each week and often have a punt on them if I don`t have an opinion of my own. After all us compulsive gamblers must have a bet of some kind, don`t we? However, I have never dreamed of posting derogatory statements about my learned friend`s tipping ability on the rare occasions when I followed him and done my nuts! Although if memory is correct, I have thanked him a few times when I won a right few bob thanks to him.
If I or anybody else on here doesn`t fancy any of the Divisional Play-Off games this week we simply don`t bet. In Milham`s defence, he doesn`t have that option, he has to produce copy and give an opinion regardless.
He does however need to accept this scenario and take any criticism like water off a duck`s back. It`s part and package of tipping. Every punter believes that they are the best and can do better than the appointed newspaper tipster. I don`t know what was posted when Milham allegedly got people banned from the forum because of their postings, but it would be natural to assume that the comments were personal and of an abusive nature.
I like Orioles blogs each week and often have a punt on them if I don`t have an opinion of my own. After all us compulsive gamblers must have a bet of some kind, don`t we? However, I have never dreamed of posting derogatory statements about my learned friend`s tipping ability on the rare occasions when I followed him and done my nuts! Although if memory is correct, I have thanked him a few times when I won a right few bob thanks to him.
I agree partly with what you guys are saying, but, imo professional tipsters, with newspapers, are on a hiding to nothing and I should know. Nobody ever sees or compliments the winning tips, but when one has a bad day at the office all hell lets loose. Punters only remember the losing ones particularly when it costs them money.
If I or anybody else on here doesn`t fancy any of the Divisional Play-Off games this week we simply don`t bet. In Milham`s defence, he doesn`t have that option, he has to produce copy and give an opinion regardless.
He does however need to accept this scenario and take any criticism like water off a duck`s back. It`s part and package of tipping. Every punter believes that they are the best and can do better than the appointed newspaper tipster. I don`t know what was posted when Milham allegedly got people banned from the forum because of their postings, but it would be natural to assume that the comments were personal and of an abusive nature.
I like Orioles blogs each week and often have a punt on them if I don`t have an opinion of my own. After all us compulsive gamblers must have a bet of some kind, don`t we? However, I have never dreamed of posting derogatory statements about my learned friend`s tipping ability on the rare occasions when I followed him and done my nuts! Although if memory is correct, I have thanked him a few times when I won a right few bob thanks to him.
If I or anybody else on here doesn`t fancy any of the Divisional Play-Off games this week we simply don`t bet. In Milham`s defence, he doesn`t have that option, he has to produce copy and give an opinion regardless.
He does however need to accept this scenario and take any criticism like water off a duck`s back. It`s part and package of tipping. Every punter believes that they are the best and can do better than the appointed newspaper tipster. I don`t know what was posted when Milham allegedly got people banned from the forum because of their postings, but it would be natural to assume that the comments were personal and of an abusive nature.
I like Orioles blogs each week and often have a punt on them if I don`t have an opinion of my own. After all us compulsive gamblers must have a bet of some kind, don`t we? However, I have never dreamed of posting derogatory statements about my learned friend`s tipping ability on the rare occasions when I followed him and done my nuts! Although if memory is correct, I have thanked him a few times when I won a right few bob thanks to him.
Agree about the 'only as good as your last tip' point - which is particularly unfortunate given my Wildcard picks!
The guy is a journalist that has been asked to write about a sport he clearly follows. The problem is he is a journalist that's been asked to make picks and stakes for those picks and it is clear that is the bit he knows nothing about.
Seems you only have to be able to write well to get a job as a tipster in the RP.
Seems you only have to be able to write well to get a job as a tipster in the RP.
Pretty sure i saw his name next to a report from a racecourse on a days racing the other week.....the Post must be using his expertise on the horses now
Then again he could be good on the horses for all we know.
His spread tips are generally desperate.
His recommended bet for last weekend was to sell the aggregate home/away supremacy at 7, Sporting immediately upped it to 8 presumably laughing in his face, I think it made up 66.
Spread betting is specialist and volatile and should be left to someone who does spreads only, anyone dipping their toe in the water last weekend will be hurt to the tune of 59 units, ugly....
His recommended bet for last weekend was to sell the aggregate home/away supremacy at 7, Sporting immediately upped it to 8 presumably laughing in his face, I think it made up 66.
Spread betting is specialist and volatile and should be left to someone who does spreads only, anyone dipping their toe in the water last weekend will be hurt to the tune of 59 units, ugly....
Ouch
Spreads are terrifying.
I recommended a Buy of TD yardage in the Detroit/New Orleans game and every long completion or run saw the ball carrier collapse at the one yard line. By the third quarter, I was laughing hysterically and searching for my revolver.
Spreads are terrifying.
I recommended a Buy of TD yardage in the Detroit/New Orleans game and every long completion or run saw the ball carrier collapse at the one yard line. By the third quarter, I was laughing hysterically and searching for my revolver.
Another resounding success last night.
"1pt buy GB Performance @ 79"
Settled at 5.
"1pt buy GB Performance @ 79"
Settled at 5.
Well, this 'wannabe tipster' went 0-4 ATS, so I'm keeping my head down!
Although I did hit a totals bet, a TD scorer and my spread recommendation went rather better than SM; bought at 102,settled at 244
Nice.
Although I did hit a totals bet, a TD scorer and my spread recommendation went rather better than SM; bought at 102,settled at 244
Nice.
Such a poor tip. Not much upside on a performance spread that high. Sportingindex must love him.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539