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:^0
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Gustav - CWS are my only preseason back on the WS markets this year
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Pity they are resting AJ today but still,another fantastic value selection from the forum shrewdie :D
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How much profit is this thread in please?
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-$1650 to $100 units,not bad going to be fair
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I suppose Detroit have to win one eventually.
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Law of averages apparently, Tai. ;-)
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Tai,that fatal day last June I bet you cannot believe what a fool you wasted so much time on :^0
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odwyer, what is today's bet please? I understand you are the North American forum shrewdie
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sb sam crap to come away with nothing today and the saints winning, long way from being safe yet we are. need a big performance next sat at home.
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Yeah, not as gutted today though as was kinda not really expecting a result. Was more disappointed on Tuesday to not close it out against Wednesday. That would have put some real distance between us and them.
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yeah wed game could turn out very bad for us, all depends on barnsleys games in hand now and sheff wed next game in hand.
Colchester a massive away game for us. |
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O'Dear :^0
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BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
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No comment... YOU PLONKER..
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.
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I'm starting to wonder if John really is a pro after all.
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today's tip please?
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please tip Detroit
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No bet today O'Dwyer?
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My record here stinks like Magglio Ordonez at the plate basically.
Detroit are now 0-6 which kind of rubs it in. This team on paper is nothing like the Tigers team that lost over 100 games in 2003 either. Even though I've mentioned it about 20 times already in this thread and others, betting on MLB matches from the start is a lottery - but is the most exciting in sport in my opinion. It can lead you to the poor house if no strategy is used. Last year I went for about 3/4 months without losing an MLB bet. That as because I never made one bet from the start of a match. All in all, I've commit my own errors of 1) betting on MLB matches from the start 2) Listened to some dodgy forumites about upping the ante of these tips - mainly because they want to see a car crash sooner or later. With regards to Tip 2 - a 3 run lead was never enough; Detroit have lost two 3-0 leads going into the 5th already this season. Read my Baseball betting potential thread, where I state that betting from the offset of an MLB match is a lottery that can lead you to the poor house. All in all, I commit my own errors. Yesterday, I bet on Detroit for the 5th time this year (out of 6), and they lost. That was my last bet on MLB from the start of a match this season. I will not be participating in 50/50 events this year and nor would I recommend anymore bets on here that are not in-play. The novelty of the new season has gone, and shown you how difficult it is to predict this game. You might as well enter Ladbrokes and play that red and black balls game, where either red or blacks win. That's what you're dealing with here - a 50/50. Value odds will not always oblige in this game either. People who have backed against Detroit have been very lucky so far as they've bet against a team (price 1.62) to win, who have lost 6 times on the trot. This will not always be the case, as a lot of 1.62 bets will probably be on a one way road to 1.01. Another factor to take notice of is to wait before the line ups for each team have been announced about 1 hour before the first pitch. Very important factor which I have gone against myself in this thread due to getting carried away with the excitement of the new season. Personally, Im going to give MLB betting a rest for a week now and start again on the 14th with my old trustworthy conservative method. |
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Odwyer, there's nothing wrong with betting from the start.. almost certainly always do.. It's YOU that's wrong.. You broke all rules in betting generally and betting baseball..
1. Never chase your losses 2. Never back short prices when they are patentedly wrong 3. Never take a win for granted (as someone who professes to know the game and bet baseball, you are either stupid or choose to ignore the fact bullpens are generally fragile and cannot be trusted) 4. Never bet against the streak 5. Never ever inflict obvioius "tips" on the public forum or you'll end up with egg on your face 6. Never bet on someone's advice, it's YOU who ultimately make that call. Do your own research and see with your own eyes.. Not on the say so of so called experts. 7. Never ever rely on the name of the starting pitchers to get you the win. It's still a team game, lineups, defense, bullpens, even umpires can affect the game. 8. Never make assumptions regarding team reputations until you KNOW for sure. 9. Never ever get**y when you tip a winner 10. When in a rut, shut it down! |
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By the way, what dodgy forumnite? All have told ya time and time again, you are backing Detroit for the wrong reasons... and at a very short price designed to leave you looking silly.. oh and don't forget, favourites DO NOT always win.. follow those rules and you'll be fine.
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That's what you're dealing with here - a 50/50.
Value odds will not always oblige in this game either. People who have backed against Detroit have been very lucky so far as they've bet against a team (price 1.62) to win, who have lost 6 times on the trot. This will not always be the case, as a lot of 1.62 bets will probably be on a one way road to 1.01. Seriously, how can you not get this?... VALUE ODDS WILL ALWAYS OBLIGE IN THE LONG TERM. THAT'S WHAT MAKES THEM VALUE. If every game is about 50/50 as you say then, one out of every two will win (in the long term)... An example of this would be the following (unlikely but simple for this example) pattern: WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS So that represents the 50/50 chance that you talk about. Now lets add in the VALUE odds, of 2.1, starting bank of 100 and level stake of 10. WIN : Bank = 111 LOSS : Bank = 101 WIN : Bank = 112 LOSS : Bank = 102 WIN : Bank = 113 LOSS : Bank = 103 WIN : Bank = 114 LOSS : Bank=104 WIN: Bank = 115 LOSS: Bank = 105 Oh look! I'm in profit and my general trend is positive. ie. If I keep picking VALUE in the long term I will win. Yes, Detroit at about 1.6, will often win. The odds imply that they will win about 60% of the time. But if I believe that they would ACTUALLY only win 30% of the time, then that is a value lay. It doesn't matter that it will be a "one-way road to 1.01", as you say, sometimes. What matters is the general trend over many bets. Do you understand that? Because your comments seem to suggest that you have absolutely no understanding of probability, value and positive expectation in the long term. |
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Personally, Im going to give MLB betting a rest for a week now and start again on the 14th with my old trustworthy conservative method.
So we're back to lumping on 1.07 shots are we :D Although reading this thread and the soccer thread that hasn't exactly gone to plan either :^0 These matches are 50/50 and you keep backing the short odds teams... :D |
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Top response F1Fan.
Like you I continue to be wound up by this clown, but I'm afraid to say that no matter what you post the moron will not take any note. There have been people actually offering him some level of constructive criticism and teach him something, but the clown remains insinstant that he knows best when all evidence points to the contrary. Treat the thread for what it is, and absolute joke. |
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Ah give the lad some credit guys, he's a master fisherman :)
Look at all the threads he starts and the amount of replies he gets, like those windup toys just turn the key, set them down and watch those babys goooooo :^0 |
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I will resume this on the 14th April when I've studied a little more of the season.
In-running tips only. I've dabbled with betting from the offset and shown you how difficult it is to call - without seeing what is going on in the game and whether the starting pitcher has "got his stuff" for example. |
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:^0 You just don't get it.. Most of the value is to be gained beforehand.. I do concede there are games like the Cubs and Pirates game where there are superb opportunities to bet in running.. I backed the Cubs before the top of the 12th when I saw Evan Meek was gonna be pitching.. But seriously, I pick the game I wanna watch beforehand and likely will have a punt on the game.. I won;'t watch a game on the off chance that a bullpen could blow the win. And most important of all, it has to be of value to me.. ie no shorter then 1.8.. GL though..
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And it does help if you actually know the bullpens of all teams and the circumstances of each players if you're gonna be betting your way.. 1.07 or 1.13 or 1.01 is no way worth the rsik given the fragile nature of bullpens.. What I'm saying is, instead of betting absurbedly short prices in running, why not spend the time doing proper research and interpreting the stats, then seeking out another opinion THEN betting on your informed judgement. Not assuming e.g. Detroit has a loaded lineup (which is true on paper) but hasn't shown it so far for me to trust them given the state of their pitching or e.g assuming no teams can lose a certain amount of games in a row.. It has happened before..
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Cause and effect, with that stance you will inevitably fall long term.
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LOL.. BUT you've already proven you fail SHORT TERM with your strategy..
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Unless this is all a sham I think it is.. Noone's that stubborn to keep backing 1.07 or 1.67 "tips" when there's more then enough evidence that it'll lose!!
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Read this again.. You've obviously missed this post.. Perfectly sums up a more amenable strategy then backing 1.07..
F1Fan85 07 Apr 13:01 That's what you're dealing with here - a 50/50. Value odds will not always oblige in this game either. People who have backed against Detroit have been very lucky so far as they've bet against a team (price 1.62) to win, who have lost 6 times on the trot. This will not always be the case, as a lot of 1.62 bets will probably be on a one way road to 1.01. Seriously, how can you not get this?... VALUE ODDS WILL ALWAYS OBLIGE IN THE LONG TERM. THAT'S WHAT MAKES THEM VALUE. If every game is about 50/50 as you say then, one out of every two will win (in the long term)... An example of this would be the following (unlikely but simple for this example) pattern: WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS So that represents the 50/50 chance that you talk about. Now lets add in the VALUE odds, of 2.1, starting bank of 100 and level stake of 10. WIN : Bank = 111 LOSS : Bank = 101 WIN : Bank = 112 LOSS : Bank = 102 WIN : Bank = 113 LOSS : Bank = 103 WIN : Bank = 114 LOSS : Bank=104 WIN: Bank = 115 LOSS: Bank = 105 Oh look! I'm in profit and my general trend is positive. ie. If I keep picking VALUE in the long term I will win. Yes, Detroit at about 1.6, will often win. The odds imply that they will win about 60% of the time. But if I believe that they would ACTUALLY only win 30% of the time, then that is a value lay. It doesn't matter that it will be a "one-way road to 1.01", as you say, sometimes. What matters is the general trend over many bets. Do you understand that? Because your comments seem to suggest that you have absolutely no understanding of probability, value and positive expectation in the long term. |
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With regard to your second post, yes - the strength of a bullpen does play a big part. I have never argued against that.
Value will not always be the answer. You're destined to fail long term in MLB using that stance. Good luck with your method though. |
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Fair enough.. Hate to see people setting themselves up for a fall though with obvious tips a 10 yr old could understand.. Ain't about being clever or summat.. Just solid reasoning and making an informed bet as opposed to assuming.. GL.. Back later for the Mets and Tigers game
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:^0
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pmsl can't you see he's a master fisherman?
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Thank you ODwyer for Tipping Arsenal.. Could you now, instead of backing Detroit, now back the damn Phillies? Much appreciated.. GL
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Cause and effect Don't worry mate, you're doing a good enough job of messing it up, as I can establish by your replies in this thread.
That's why I say in-running is the only (near certain) way you can profit at this game, with a nice healthy lead. Saying that, that's not as fun as betting from the start of a match, in the lottery that is Baseball betting. I will resume this thread on the 14th April after seeing a bit more of the season. |