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orioles
12 Nov 09 18:53
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Date Joined: 26 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 9,509 | Blogger: orioles's blog
A difficult pick this one, with two teams that have deficiencies that make them as likely to lose as to win.

Chicago have as much chance of defending successfully as Zeeny does of maintaining his dignity in a donkey sanctuary and San Francisco have a guy under centre who would rather have a full week to decide and throw the ball.

Briggs has to contain Gore, but Chicago have struggled to stop the run all year, so I expect Gore to have a monster. Similarly, I take Vernon Davis to tear into the Bears secondary if Smith can get the ball off. Chicago have scant talent against the pass and the talent they have is injured; it aint good.

Alex Smith has shown signs of life, but my scouts tell me that the numbers hide the real story; the guy is struggling. He wants too much time and consequently his decision-making can be erratic and his throws wayward. Thankfully, the Bears rush the passer like my grandmother, who died in 1974. Out of the shotgun he looks a little better and if Gore does the damage he should, that will relieve the skittish QB of some of these problems.

The Bears will have to balance out their offense imo. Cutler throws the ball to the opposition too much on the road and, although Clements is out and Lewis is banged up, unless Forte can get past Willis and a pretty stingy SF D on the ground (theyre generally solid enough at home too), Cutler will inevitably cough it up under pressure and the O will falter.

I take the 9ers to cover and I like the Overs. Davis should score, as should Gore, but with Chicago needing to win so much, look for Cutler to air it out all day and Forte to have some success catching out of the backfield. Hester should be a threat for a big play or two and Olsen has looked good recently.

Pick: SF -3.5
Pick: Over 43.5

First TD: Vernon Davis @ 10.5
Anytime TD: Greg Olsen @ 2.75

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Replies: 63
By:
skyblues
When: 12 Nov 09 19:03
orioles
vern davis over 55.5 yds 1.93 on here, bound to lose now but seems very good value he is 60yds and above at most places.
By:
orioles
When: 12 Nov 09 19:09
A very nice spot, SB. It would've been nice if he'd kept his mouth shut before gametime, but with his size and the Bears defensive backs, he should put up big numbers. Smith clearly likes throwing to him.
By:
captaincuttle
When: 12 Nov 09 19:11
Big, big game for Da Bears, who`s gameplan is quite simple really, STOP GORE. Sure they miss Urlacher badly and Cuttler is rather inconsistent, but they`ll never get a better opportunity to get back on the winning track. Bears for me (+3.5).

Actually, I`ve layed 49ers (-3.5) @ 2.12 and 2.08

Was that your money Sir mighty Orioles? ;)
By:
skyblues
When: 12 Nov 09 19:28
yeah mate, they either kill davis after what he said or he does what he says and has a big game.
Tbh ive done the 49ers -3.5 for small stakes as this game is very close to call, main reason ive took 49ers is because off the travelling on a short distance for the bears to a diff time zone.
By:
orioles
When: 12 Nov 09 19:28
The full £2 :)
By:
captaincuttle
When: 12 Nov 09 19:32
True skyblues, but Glad Davis said it though :D

Da Bears need some motivation!!!
By:
I.quit.my.job
When: 12 Nov 09 19:38
Uncle O I called the same bets after spending time on the game.......... I'm new to American Football but enjoying it more and more..............I'm playing one of the bets OVERS or SF -3.5 but unsure which one to go for..............what you think?
By:
RescueMe.
When: 12 Nov 09 19:39
Chicago by 10
By:
captaincuttle
When: 12 Nov 09 19:43
Da Bears (+3.5)
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 12 Nov 09 19:48
total apple turnovers, between 4 and 5 at 9/5 looks interesting. be amazed if there arent at least 3 and 6+ is a bit much imo. 4 or 5 looks about spot on so 9/5 looks a decent price.
By:
Ross8481
When: 12 Nov 09 19:56
gl O
By:
orioles
When: 12 Nov 09 20:02
Quit, I always try to imagine myself sitting in front of the game. Who would be worrying me most?

Well, in this case it would be the Chicago D, which is very vulnerable.

The Overs bet looks obvious, just because SF should tear apart Chi and Chi will have to throw all day as they fail to establish the run, or play catch up and SF can give up big plays (9th 20+ yds plays). That said, these vital matchups make me slightly nervous as they can often go differently when you're expecting a shootout.

If I HAD to bet, I'd give the points with a saver on Overs.
By:
I.quit.my.job
When: 12 Nov 09 21:15
thanks for the advice it looks too obvious don't it........when it looks obvious the bookies win that's what I'm worried about
By:
orioles
When: 19 Nov 09 17:51
Miami @ Carolina

Browns down and the wildcat has had its claws pulled. Well, thats why the line has flip flopped anyway. This is a squeaker: the short rest is supposed to favour the home team and while Ricky Williams is running well, the wildcat buys a little extra time for blockers to give him room, so he may find less room to operate. That said, without Thomas Davis, the Panthers got gashed on the ground last week and their lack of depth at DT means they are vulnerable and they rank 25th against the run.

Carolina are also building their offense on a running game, so we could see a little smashmouth here to start things off. The edge though, goes to Carolina because they have a few more options on O and that variety can be used to expose Miamis weakness against the pass if their backs struggle, as they might with Gross out a big miss. The Panthers arent overwhelming deep, but I like Smith and take him to score tonight against Miamis rookie corners.

Both QBs protect the ball nicely, but the Panthers have stepped up against the pass and intercepted eight passes in the last three, so Henne might struggle to go vertical if Ricky and the wildcat begins to falter.

This should be the difference and see Carolina home. Just.

Pick: Carolina -3 @ 1.8*

Pick: 1st TD Ricky Williams @ 5*
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.1***
Pick: Over 42 @ 1.91**
By:
good value losers
When: 19 Nov 09 18:27
orioles 19 Nov 19:51
Both QBs protect the ball nicely


:0 easy to forget delhomme's early season picks! true, he hasn't thrown a pick for the last 3 games, which may mean he's due for some tonight :^0 though miami aren't that good at int's.
By:
skyblues
When: 19 Nov 09 18:30
damn gvl beat me to it.
Delhomme is a pick monster, thou orioles does love his dodgy qb's.
and with the panthers running game he shouldnt need to throw much even with miami having a decent rush defence.
Gl orioles mate.
By:
orioles
When: 19 Nov 09 18:56
Look at the player as he is now, grasshopper, not as he once was and respect the wisdom of Uncle O ;)
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 19 Nov 09 19:29
forgot all about this game. does miami v jake the take equal unders mcdunders????
By:
skyblues
When: 19 Nov 09 20:27
both will be running the ball alot id imagine, and the phins im assuming will try to take as much time off the clock, changing the plays and such to keep the panthers guessing without brown, doing the wildcat.
Unders a pretty good shout, but i am not going to post anything about taking bets on this thread after the kiss off death last week.

Yeah orioles he is doing better and he isnt as bad as what happened at the start off the season, bit off confidence back and the running game has helped him out a fair bit as he doesnt need to throw as much.
By:
orioles
When: 19 Nov 09 20:28
Apology accepted.
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 15:01
:) HAPPY THANKSGIVING :)

Green Bay @ Detroit

As usual at this point in the season, injuries are beginning to bite. Stafford, who has shown signs of life, is out today, putting Culpepper under centre (6/14 for 48 yards with one interception when he played GB earlier this year!) Johnson is also out and Smith has a bad hip. Detroit got home last week, just, but these injuries should make it difficult for them to hold on to Green Bay who seem to be getting on track, particularly with Finley back. He seems to settle Rodgers down and the offense looks happier in general, with Ryan Grant even giving them a ground game.

The Packs D has taken a couple of hits, with Kampmann and Harris done for the season, but Im taking the Lions problems at QB to balance that out and the Pack to win going away. Its a lot of points to give, but it could be a blowout. Detroit have struggled mightily in this traditional Thanksgiving fixture recently and Green Bay is 6-1 ATS last 7 against Detroit.

Pick: GB -11

Pick: 1st TD Ryan Grant @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremichael Finley @ 2.88
By:
Saluting Darren Lockyer
When: 26 Nov 09 15:04
you may want to rewrite this
By:
Joey_Boy1
When: 26 Nov 09 15:05
stafford is in, so is calvin johnson Detriot +10.5 for me
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 26 Nov 09 15:23
green day are crap these days. dont be an american idiot, back detroit on the handicap.
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 15:40
WOW ... I was in a hurry and used my fantasy football sources for injuries (even CBS were reporting them both out) this looked a standout bet without Stafford and Johnson.

Ah well :(
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 15:57
Fumble recovery ... missed FG ... sometimes, it just isn't my day :p
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 18:46
Oakland @ Dallas

These two teams are enough to bring my turkey up ... and not in a good way. I'm going to take the Raiders' D to be the deciding factor against the lumbering Dallas O line and Romo who can be useless or adequate, depending on his mood.

As America's team is trying to pretend Tony the titend doesn't exist, I'll look for a running back to give me some love on the TD market.

Pick: Oakland +13.5

Pick: 1st TD Barber @ 5.5
Pick: Under 40.5
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 18:57
Saluting Darren Lockyer 26 Nov 17:04
you may want to rewrite this


Uncle O KNOWS :p
By:
Saluting Darren Lockyer
When: 26 Nov 09 19:11
well done although i think you misread the fact that the lions problem at quarterback isn't culpepper
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 19:15
I'm not taking any credit out of the pick, DL :)

Detroit are just horrible and I'm not sure starting Stafford was such a good idea from a long-term perspective, maybe they were trying to be too cute. I agree, the problem is not the QB.
By:
Saluting Darren Lockyer
When: 26 Nov 09 19:21
a truly awful team,the worst i've seen by some distance and i actually felt sorry for their defensive front 7 who tried their best to keep the ball away from the secondary.
For me there are no bright spots in that team and last weeks game just served to over inflate the self importance of stafford,he should have bailed himself out of that match after the first quarter.
By:
orioles
When: 26 Nov 09 23:25
Bah! I liked that bet. Two horrible teams.

Anyway, might as well plough on ...

New York Giants @ Denver

What the hell has happened to Denver? Well, there's been a breakdown both sides of the ball. On D they're beginning to look completely ineffective against the run and they seem unable to pressure the passer at all. They have the personnel, but age may be catching up with some of them. Dawkins may be out, but Dumervil can bring it and the secondary isn't horrible, they just seem to have lost their way.

On the other side of the rock, Orton is banged up and beginnning to lokk a bit frayed (15/29 for 171 yards and 1 INT against the Chargers last Sunday) and looks one hit away from exiting stage left. The old adage about being wary of backing a QB when there's nothing coming off the bench was never more evident than at mile high. Despite NYG's anaemic pass rush and their own troubles on D, I think I'll give the points in this one and look for some love from the giants on the ground.

Pick: NYG -6

1st TD: Jacobs @ 6.5
anytime TD: Steve Smith @ 2.1
Over 42.5
By:
curious-cat
When: 27 Nov 09 01:01
Rudy Giuliani, Carlo Gambini, Robert De Niro & Joey Tribiani your boys are taking one helluva beating !

add your own Newyorkers ......... tbh I was struggling to get those.
By:
orioles
When: 27 Nov 09 01:04
Low, CC, low ;)

Sometimes you bite the bear and sometimes, the bear rapes you in front of a packed picnic area and does a victory dance wearing your boxer shorts as a hat, before leaving :_|
By:
curious-cat
When: 27 Nov 09 01:09
I thought if I did a post like that the Giants could turn it round and make it bite me on the bum. :)

I've traded at the right odds just had too much at odds on on both teams :(
By:
orioles
When: 27 Nov 09 01:10
Do you listen to Danny Baker on Saturdays on 5 Live?

"Nothing can possibly go wrong!" :)
By:
curious-cat
When: 27 Nov 09 01:11
Back

NY Giants ....... 1.85

Denver Broncos 1.38


Lay
NY Giants ....... 1.61
Denver Broncos 1.21
By:
curious-cat
When: 27 Nov 09 01:14
fraid not orioles

busy trying to sort out the races

used to like radio 4 on a Sat morning
Cliff Morgan .. travel programme and Ned Sherrin on Loose Ends :(
By:
curious-cat
When: 27 Nov 09 01:16
am foot is a great sport for trading as long as I start off laying the favs and don't try to think that I know who is going to win.
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