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12 Nov 09 19:53
Date Joined: 26 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 9,509 | Blogger: orioles's blog
A difficult pick this one, with two teams that have deficiencies that make them as likely to lose as to win.

Chicago have as much chance of defending successfully as Zeeny does of maintaining his dignity in a donkey sanctuary and San Francisco have a guy under centre who would rather have a full week to decide and throw the ball.

Briggs has to contain Gore, but Chicago have struggled to stop the run all year, so I expect Gore to have a monster. Similarly, I take Vernon Davis to tear into the Bears secondary if Smith can get the ball off. Chicago have scant talent against the pass and the talent they have is injured; it aint good.

Alex Smith has shown signs of life, but my scouts tell me that the numbers hide the real story; the guy is struggling. He wants too much time and consequently his decision-making can be erratic and his throws wayward. Thankfully, the Bears rush the passer like my grandmother, who died in 1974. Out of the shotgun he looks a little better and if Gore does the damage he should, that will relieve the skittish QB of some of these problems.

The Bears will have to balance out their offense imo. Cutler throws the ball to the opposition too much on the road and, although Clements is out and Lewis is banged up, unless Forte can get past Willis and a pretty stingy SF D on the ground (theyre generally solid enough at home too), Cutler will inevitably cough it up under pressure and the O will falter.

I take the 9ers to cover and I like the Overs. Davis should score, as should Gore, but with Chicago needing to win so much, look for Cutler to air it out all day and Forte to have some success catching out of the backfield. Hester should be a threat for a big play or two and Olsen has looked good recently.

Pick: SF -3.5
Pick: Over 43.5

First TD: Vernon Davis @ 10.5
Anytime TD: Greg Olsen @ 2.75
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Report skyblues November 12, 2009 8:03 PM GMT
vern davis over 55.5 yds 1.93 on here, bound to lose now but seems very good value he is 60yds and above at most places.
Report orioles November 12, 2009 8:09 PM GMT
A very nice spot, SB. It would've been nice if he'd kept his mouth shut before gametime, but with his size and the Bears defensive backs, he should put up big numbers. Smith clearly likes throwing to him.
Report captaincuttle November 12, 2009 8:11 PM GMT
Big, big game for Da Bears, who`s gameplan is quite simple really, STOP GORE. Sure they miss Urlacher badly and Cuttler is rather inconsistent, but they`ll never get a better opportunity to get back on the winning track. Bears for me (+3.5).

Actually, I`ve layed 49ers (-3.5) @ 2.12 and 2.08

Was that your money Sir mighty Orioles? ;)
Report skyblues November 12, 2009 8:28 PM GMT
yeah mate, they either kill davis after what he said or he does what he says and has a big game.
Tbh ive done the 49ers -3.5 for small stakes as this game is very close to call, main reason ive took 49ers is because off the travelling on a short distance for the bears to a diff time zone.
Report orioles November 12, 2009 8:28 PM GMT
The full £2 :)
Report captaincuttle November 12, 2009 8:32 PM GMT
True skyblues, but Glad Davis said it though :D

Da Bears need some motivation!!!
Report November 12, 2009 8:38 PM GMT
Uncle O I called the same bets after spending time on the game.......... I'm new to American Football but enjoying it more and more..............I'm playing one of the bets OVERS or SF -3.5 but unsure which one to go for..............what you think?
Report RescueMe. November 12, 2009 8:39 PM GMT
Chicago by 10
Report captaincuttle November 12, 2009 8:43 PM GMT
Da Bears (+3.5)
Report cunnybobbler November 12, 2009 8:48 PM GMT
total apple turnovers, between 4 and 5 at 9/5 looks interesting. be amazed if there arent at least 3 and 6+ is a bit much imo. 4 or 5 looks about spot on so 9/5 looks a decent price.
Report Ross8481 November 12, 2009 8:56 PM GMT
gl O
Report orioles November 12, 2009 9:02 PM GMT
Quit, I always try to imagine myself sitting in front of the game. Who would be worrying me most?

Well, in this case it would be the Chicago D, which is very vulnerable.

The Overs bet looks obvious, just because SF should tear apart Chi and Chi will have to throw all day as they fail to establish the run, or play catch up and SF can give up big plays (9th 20+ yds plays). That said, these vital matchups make me slightly nervous as they can often go differently when you're expecting a shootout.

If I HAD to bet, I'd give the points with a saver on Overs.
Report November 12, 2009 10:15 PM GMT
thanks for the advice it looks too obvious don't it........when it looks obvious the bookies win that's what I'm worried about
Report orioles November 19, 2009 6:51 PM GMT
Miami @ Carolina

Browns down and the wildcat has had its claws pulled. Well, thats why the line has flip flopped anyway. This is a squeaker: the short rest is supposed to favour the home team and while Ricky Williams is running well, the wildcat buys a little extra time for blockers to give him room, so he may find less room to operate. That said, without Thomas Davis, the Panthers got gashed on the ground last week and their lack of depth at DT means they are vulnerable and they rank 25th against the run.

Carolina are also building their offense on a running game, so we could see a little smashmouth here to start things off. The edge though, goes to Carolina because they have a few more options on O and that variety can be used to expose Miamis weakness against the pass if their backs struggle, as they might with Gross out a big miss. The Panthers arent overwhelming deep, but I like Smith and take him to score tonight against Miamis rookie corners.

Both QBs protect the ball nicely, but the Panthers have stepped up against the pass and intercepted eight passes in the last three, so Henne might struggle to go vertical if Ricky and the wildcat begins to falter.

This should be the difference and see Carolina home. Just.

Pick: Carolina -3 @ 1.8*

Pick: 1st TD Ricky Williams @ 5*
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.1***
Pick: Over 42 @ 1.91**
Report good value losers November 19, 2009 7:27 PM GMT
orioles 19 Nov 19:51
Both QBs protect the ball nicely

:0 easy to forget delhomme's early season picks! true, he hasn't thrown a pick for the last 3 games, which may mean he's due for some tonight :^0 though miami aren't that good at int's.
Report skyblues November 19, 2009 7:30 PM GMT
damn gvl beat me to it.
Delhomme is a pick monster, thou orioles does love his dodgy qb's.
and with the panthers running game he shouldnt need to throw much even with miami having a decent rush defence.
Gl orioles mate.
Report orioles November 19, 2009 7:56 PM GMT
Look at the player as he is now, grasshopper, not as he once was and respect the wisdom of Uncle O ;)
Report cunnybobbler November 19, 2009 8:29 PM GMT
forgot all about this game. does miami v jake the take equal unders mcdunders????
Report skyblues November 19, 2009 9:27 PM GMT
both will be running the ball alot id imagine, and the phins im assuming will try to take as much time off the clock, changing the plays and such to keep the panthers guessing without brown, doing the wildcat.
Unders a pretty good shout, but i am not going to post anything about taking bets on this thread after the kiss off death last week.

Yeah orioles he is doing better and he isnt as bad as what happened at the start off the season, bit off confidence back and the running game has helped him out a fair bit as he doesnt need to throw as much.
Report orioles November 19, 2009 9:28 PM GMT
Apology accepted.
Report orioles November 26, 2009 4:01 PM GMT

Green Bay @ Detroit

As usual at this point in the season, injuries are beginning to bite. Stafford, who has shown signs of life, is out today, putting Culpepper under centre (6/14 for 48 yards with one interception when he played GB earlier this year!) Johnson is also out and Smith has a bad hip. Detroit got home last week, just, but these injuries should make it difficult for them to hold on to Green Bay who seem to be getting on track, particularly with Finley back. He seems to settle Rodgers down and the offense looks happier in general, with Ryan Grant even giving them a ground game.

The Packs D has taken a couple of hits, with Kampmann and Harris done for the season, but Im taking the Lions problems at QB to balance that out and the Pack to win going away. Its a lot of points to give, but it could be a blowout. Detroit have struggled mightily in this traditional Thanksgiving fixture recently and Green Bay is 6-1 ATS last 7 against Detroit.

Pick: GB -11

Pick: 1st TD Ryan Grant @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremichael Finley @ 2.88
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer November 26, 2009 4:04 PM GMT
you may want to rewrite this
Report Joey_Boy1 November 26, 2009 4:05 PM GMT
stafford is in, so is calvin johnson Detriot +10.5 for me
Report cunnybobbler November 26, 2009 4:23 PM GMT
green day are crap these days. dont be an american idiot, back detroit on the handicap.
Report orioles November 26, 2009 4:40 PM GMT
WOW ... I was in a hurry and used my fantasy football sources for injuries (even CBS were reporting them both out) this looked a standout bet without Stafford and Johnson.

Ah well :(
Report orioles November 26, 2009 4:57 PM GMT
Fumble recovery ... missed FG ... sometimes, it just isn't my day :p
Report orioles November 26, 2009 7:46 PM GMT
Oakland @ Dallas

These two teams are enough to bring my turkey up ... and not in a good way. I'm going to take the Raiders' D to be the deciding factor against the lumbering Dallas O line and Romo who can be useless or adequate, depending on his mood.

As America's team is trying to pretend Tony the titend doesn't exist, I'll look for a running back to give me some love on the TD market.

Pick: Oakland +13.5

Pick: 1st TD Barber @ 5.5
Pick: Under 40.5
Report orioles November 26, 2009 7:57 PM GMT
Saluting Darren Lockyer 26 Nov 17:04
you may want to rewrite this

Uncle O KNOWS :p
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer November 26, 2009 8:11 PM GMT
well done although i think you misread the fact that the lions problem at quarterback isn't culpepper
Report orioles November 26, 2009 8:15 PM GMT
I'm not taking any credit out of the pick, DL :)

Detroit are just horrible and I'm not sure starting Stafford was such a good idea from a long-term perspective, maybe they were trying to be too cute. I agree, the problem is not the QB.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer November 26, 2009 8:21 PM GMT
a truly awful team,the worst i've seen by some distance and i actually felt sorry for their defensive front 7 who tried their best to keep the ball away from the secondary.
For me there are no bright spots in that team and last weeks game just served to over inflate the self importance of stafford,he should have bailed himself out of that match after the first quarter.
Report orioles November 27, 2009 12:25 AM GMT
Bah! I liked that bet. Two horrible teams.

Anyway, might as well plough on ...

New York Giants @ Denver

What the hell has happened to Denver? Well, there's been a breakdown both sides of the ball. On D they're beginning to look completely ineffective against the run and they seem unable to pressure the passer at all. They have the personnel, but age may be catching up with some of them. Dawkins may be out, but Dumervil can bring it and the secondary isn't horrible, they just seem to have lost their way.

On the other side of the rock, Orton is banged up and beginnning to lokk a bit frayed (15/29 for 171 yards and 1 INT against the Chargers last Sunday) and looks one hit away from exiting stage left. The old adage about being wary of backing a QB when there's nothing coming off the bench was never more evident than at mile high. Despite NYG's anaemic pass rush and their own troubles on D, I think I'll give the points in this one and look for some love from the giants on the ground.

Pick: NYG -6

1st TD: Jacobs @ 6.5
anytime TD: Steve Smith @ 2.1
Over 42.5
Report curious-cat November 27, 2009 2:01 AM GMT
Rudy Giuliani, Carlo Gambini, Robert De Niro & Joey Tribiani your boys are taking one helluva beating !

add your own Newyorkers ......... tbh I was struggling to get those.
Report orioles November 27, 2009 2:04 AM GMT
Low, CC, low ;)

Sometimes you bite the bear and sometimes, the bear rapes you in front of a packed picnic area and does a victory dance wearing your boxer shorts as a hat, before leaving :_|
Report curious-cat November 27, 2009 2:09 AM GMT
I thought if I did a post like that the Giants could turn it round and make it bite me on the bum. :)

I've traded at the right odds just had too much at odds on on both teams :(
Report orioles November 27, 2009 2:10 AM GMT
Do you listen to Danny Baker on Saturdays on 5 Live?

"Nothing can possibly go wrong!" :)
Report curious-cat November 27, 2009 2:11 AM GMT

NY Giants ....... 1.85

Denver Broncos 1.38

NY Giants ....... 1.61
Denver Broncos 1.21
Report curious-cat November 27, 2009 2:14 AM GMT
fraid not orioles

busy trying to sort out the races

used to like radio 4 on a Sat morning
Cliff Morgan .. travel programme and Ned Sherrin on Loose Ends :(
Report curious-cat November 27, 2009 2:16 AM GMT
am foot is a great sport for trading as long as I start off laying the favs and don't try to think that I know who is going to win.
Report orioles November 27, 2009 2:18 AM GMT
Never takes me more than 5 minutes on the AW :p

He says that whenever he's watching his beloved Millwall and they go ahead, he likes to stand up and proclaim "Nothing can possibly go wrong!"

His more superstitious colleagues are mortified ... I was kind of hoping you were going to have same effect :)
Report orioles November 27, 2009 2:19 AM GMT
That's where I'm going wrong! I ALWAYS think I know who's going to win.
Report curious-cat November 27, 2009 2:44 AM GMT
that's when I go wrong .......... If I realise I'm stupid I do ok ;)
Report cunnybobbler November 27, 2009 4:45 AM GMT
note to self: never back detroit ever again. made most of it back on the other 2 games but not really the point. i thought stafford was meant to be good?? not watched detroit much but he didnt look good. unless throwing about 5 passes straight to players wearing the wrong colour jerseys counts as good these days. i know he was a bit banged up but not sure thats a good excuse for throws like that.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer November 27, 2009 8:14 AM GMT
Should imagine he felt like a right turkey in front of national televsion..................left many people wondering what all the fuss is about with him.
Report orioles December 3, 2009 5:58 PM GMT
NY Jets @ Buffalo

Both teams pulled it together a little last week. There weren't that many surprises in New York: the Jets ran the hell out of it, despite not finding too much joy, Sanchez struggled to complete any passes and didn't throw a TD. They'll do the same this week (they clearly like this type of ultra-conservative offense) particularly against a Buffalo D that's been giving up a lot of yards on the ground. On the other side of the ball, the NYJ D showed signs of life, and TO will struggle against Revis, but that should give Evans a chance.

However, I like Fitzpatrick and he's going to look after the rock better than Delhomme did last week and, crucially, better than Sanchez will in this matchup. That was the key last time they met and with Jackson beginning to get more touches, I like the Bills to squeak home in this one. So I'll take the points.

Pick: Buf +3 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Jones @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Lee Evans @ 3.1
Pick: Over 37pts @ 1.91
Report captaincuttle December 3, 2009 7:37 PM GMT
No offence Orioles, but I`m terrified to read this thread every Thursday in case you tip the team that I intend to bet, lol. Thankfully, I can bet the Jets with confidence now :D

P.S. If I don`t win, I hope that you do!!!!
Report orioles December 3, 2009 7:45 PM GMT
In general, Captain, my picks can be opposed with confidence :)
Report FORZA AS ROMA December 3, 2009 10:35 PM GMT
Will Revis even cover TO?????Should but TO isnt the number 1 WR imo
Report captaincuttle December 4, 2009 7:22 PM GMT
Revis was brilliant once again. Some player this guy.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 4, 2009 7:34 PM GMT
agree,sure fire pro bowler this season i should imagine
Report orioles December 4, 2009 8:23 PM GMT
I love watching guys like Revis play. I've always dreamt of being a pacy, hard-hitting corner.

Unfortunately, holding the Memorial Stadium foot long hot-dog record was probably an early indication that it was never to be :|
Report captaincuttle December 4, 2009 11:29 PM GMT
I once dreamt of being the new Jim Thorpe :(
Report orioles December 10, 2009 6:39 PM GMT
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

A weather pick.

If the weather was OK, I'd take the points: the Steelers have a shambolic look on D, with Tomlin seemingly ready to ring the changes and sit experienced players and give more time to guys like Burnett and Lewis. With Polamalu still out, they have been struggling, with Gradkowski gashing their secondary last week.

However, they can defend the run, giving up just 86ypg in the last 4 games and I don't see Jerome Harrison terrifying Pittsburgh's coaches. True, Quinn has seen signs of life recently, but if the weather is going to be as bad as the forecast suggests, he's going to be limited by the conditions.

On the other side of the all, it looks like Mendenhall is going to see the rock alot, particularly if Ward is out (game time decision) and Cleveland awful against run (over the last four, they rank dead last and they're no better on the season) so look for him to score.

Not a great game to bet ... not an average game to bet! But if the weather's bad, I'll give the points and go under.

Pick: Pittsburgh -10

Pick: 1st TD Mendenhall @ 5/Heath Miller @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Mohamed Massaquoi @ 2
Pick: Under 33
Report themightymac December 10, 2009 10:24 PM GMT
No opinion on the game so, desperate for a bet, I`ve taken your tip Mr Orioles of Steelers (-10). Good luck.
Report orioles December 17, 2009 11:32 PM GMT
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Ahhhh ... picks at the back end of the season involving 13-0 teams, what could be better? I think the only way to take a crack at this is to look at the game as if everyone was going to play, so here goes.

Indy are listing 29 players as injured ... DAMN ... I didnt get a sentence into ignoring the
Report Yuvraj Singh December 18, 2009 3:43 AM GMT
nice picks uncle o
Report SwindonBoy December 18, 2009 3:49 AM GMT
well done..
Report wanna_b_pro December 18, 2009 9:11 AM GMT
Spot on 'O'. Well Done mate, keep em coming
Report rink rat December 18, 2009 3:51 PM GMT
Back swimmin among the sharks again. ;)
Report orioles December 19, 2009 5:49 PM GMT
Dallas @ New Orleans

The Saints are pushing for home field advantage in the play-offs and Dallas are hanging on to Wild Card dreams ...

Report skyblues December 19, 2009 5:59 PM GMT
Orioles the big matchup in fantasy. Think your gonna win tbh.
Report orioles December 19, 2009 6:23 PM GMT
Actually, I think the dream dies tomorrow :(
Report skyblues December 19, 2009 6:40 PM GMT
lol i hope so mate. be a nice christmas presant.
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