ness_228

Bank 153

Ireland have had, by far, the best World Cup of any of the minnows. However, they will still struggle to qualify for the quarters unless they get a result here.

When the South Africans played on this ground they demolished the Netherlands but the orangemens bowling is a little powder puff and once on top the middle order just pummelled them into submission. Irelands attack will be severely weakened if Trent Johnston cannot play as he has enough pace and control to worry the very best.
If WI bat, and can get through the new ball then Gayle / Bravo / Pollard etc could explode in these conditions and if they approach 300 then it is very unlikely that Ireland will get anywhere close.

Kemar Roach has destroyed the minnows so far, and if he can get to bowl at the lowere middle order there is every chance he could get some more cheap scalps.

If WI bat then it is likely that the 6 count will be high - Pollard / Gayle / Bravo - if Ireland bat then it may be lower as less opportunity to attack freely.

Will wait for the toss - hope WI bat - and look to back 275 (if Johnston plays) and 300 if he doesnt.

Bank 146

Rangers are still in Europe but they have only won one match, their domestic form is also patchy and there are also the injuries for the 'Gers to overcome.

The Dutch League is stronger than the Scottish Premier, yet PSV have only lost 3 matches all season and have a healthy goal difference too.

Rangers will, without doubt, set out to defend and all I can see is the dutch technical ability wearing them down,

BACK PSV Clean Sheet  £10 @ 2.04
BACK PSV to win 2-0  £3 @ 7.4

Bank 138

India will win this game. No doubt of that whatsoever.
If India bat on the Delhi road then there could be a mammoth socre racked up - if the Orangemen bat they could get a decent score, but apart from the effort against a badly misfiring Englisg attack there has been precious little to write home about in the dutch batting to date.

Total sixes may look a good bet, but if the dutch bat, get 200 and Inda coast home then will there be a large number of maximums. You would have to doubt it.
If India bat then there maybe a shed load, NO BET

Top run scorers are again difficult, the dutch appear to have two players who can hold a bat, Ryan TenDoschaete & Tommy Cooper and unsurprisingly they are the 2 favs - whilst there may be profit in laying one of the others there is little profit (and no guarantee they will all play risking a void bet). NO BET

Indias batting is even more tricky, Sehwag will win if on his top game as per the Banglas (175), but he has been guilty of gifting his wicket too. Sachin is likely to get 50+, but may leave sufficient time for the hitters to catch him with a late burst. NO BET

With changes in the Indian attack likely the potential LAY of Munaf Patel as top bowler - accurate but unlikely to rip through the top order - is not worth it until the lineups are announced (and then only if the bet is not void).

The bet I would consider is Tendulkar to score a 50, and if he hadn't played such a poor shot to get out last time out then thsi would look a better bet.

BACK India Opening Partnership 50+  £10 @ 1.85

Bank 101.50

This game has got goals written all over it - although a 1-0 for Barca will see them through that is not how they will play and with the normal centre backs missing there will be holes at the back for Barcam ask Man Utd how easy it is to cope without both the normal pairing.

Barca are therefore likely to have to score 3 to progress, and if Arsenal score early then this may be very difficult as Arsenal would, without doubt sit back. If Barca score though then the onus would be on Arsenal scoring a goal and that would create really a really exciting spectacle.

Back Over 2.5 goals £20 @ 1.53
Back Barcelona to win 3-1 £3 @ 10.5

Bank C/F 78.50

Bank 108.50

Todays game is a difficult one to weigh up for several reasons.

Firstly the pitch, hard and with grass according to the quotes from yesterday so bounce ???, no previous international games at the ground so no history, NZ did bowl out SL 'A' for 91 there on a previous visit (after scoring 276) who is to say how strong that side was, the only test at the ground resulted in a washout but WI batted for 103 overs to get 303 .... not an immediately fast scoring gorund then ?? (and the spinners did a lot of the bowling which is to be expected).

Secondly, only 2 NZ batsmen (Guptill and McCullum) have batted for any length of time in the WC so far (Vettori & N McCullum did get a decent knock against the Aussies but if it gets down to them quickly then Pakistan will be the favourites) as the Kiwis have notched up 2 10wkt wins. Early breakthroughs today would make them vulnerable to another collapse ?

And thirdly, the mercurial Pakistanis who have so far looked a lot more disciplined and controlled and with Afridi skittling all that is put in front of him have a bowler capable of control and wicket taking in the middle overs. The question is what will happen if a side is capable of exerting some real pressure. Will the wheels fall off ??

Not an easy one to call, if Pakistan bat they have shown that they are well capable of scoring a good score - and a pitch with bounce may serve them well as long as there is no extravagant movement (which is unlikely in my opinion) so a back of 250+, possibly 275+ would seem reasonable as NZ do not have the bowlers to rip the batting apart.

If NZ bat first a more difficult call, as there is no recent form of the middle order - other than the capitulation vs Aus to go on.

BACK Pakistan to win £20 @ 1.69 will lay off if PAK hit 1.05 or lower (learning my lesson slowly)

BACK 8 or more sixes in the match £8.50 @ 2.64 both sides have plenty of hitters and if it is a reasonably high scoring game you could see this home early doors

Bank C/F £80

Bank 83.50

This must be another last chance saloon for Chelsea, after the failure of either Arsenal or Man Utd to claim full points over the weekend. The gap would still be 9 - possibly 6 if the other game in hand is also won.
Although this would still be a mountain it would be a considerably smaller mountain than failure to win tonight would leave.


Blackpool who have exceeded all expectations this season are running a little short of puff now - and the lack of Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell will hit them hard as this will blunt some of the counter attacking and goal scoring ability of the side.

Chelsea at 1.32 does appeal, but backing long odds on shots away from home is not a formula for success. The top-4 have failed to win on 34 of 56 away games this season - and not all to the 'big' or even 'top half' teams.

The bet that does appeal is Over 2.5 goals, Blackpool do try and attack, almost recklessly sometimes and there always seem to be goals in their matches.
Chelsea have got the firepower to score goals, although it is not really kicking inot gear at the moment.

Chelsea must win, Blackpool score goals

BACK Over 2.5 goals  £30 @ 1.56   (wins 16.80)
BACK Over 3.5 goals  £7 @ 2.32    (wins  9.24)
Bank  46.5

Bank 103.50

England are definitely struggling on the bowling front in this WC, lack of penetration and a lack of control. The slow bouncer technique is fine as a shock weapon, however, if people know it is coming you are going to get pummelled and there is no margin for error.

England are also carrying too many non-100% fit players. KP needs an operation, Colly has a dodgy knee, has Broad recovered from Dehli-belly, has Swann recovered ?

The way that the Saffers have been batting if there is not a 100% improvement in Englands control they could be chasing 400 !
AB DeVilliers has looked in supreme form - although he did apparently have a back twinge in the last game.

Steyn / Morkel & Tahir will pose England more problems than any of the attacks faced so far and it will be a good performance to score 300 again - and the bowlers need as many as possible to defend.

On the plus side I'm not sure that the English fielding can get any worse. Is there a reason why none of them have a cold ??

Its difficult to know what the pitch is like as the only other WC2011 game was the kenyan capitulation to NZ who then knocked them off in 8 overs.

Will Colly play ? if not, the top Eng bat void
Will all 3 SA spinners play ? if not, same fate for top SA bowler
and its possible, although unlikely that Jimmy won't play either.

BACK SA to win £20 @ 1.59 (to will 11.80)

Bank 61.50 + 28.50 = 90

Didnt even consider rain but, hey ho, sometimes your luck is in.

There are always goals at Gresty road and Burton have been averaging more than 3 goals a game in recent weeks.
This looks booked for a goal fest - I wouldn't be surprised if there are more than 4 or even 5 goals in this game.

Back Crewe v Burton over 2.5 goals £20 @ 1.7 (to win 14)

Bank 61.50

This is a big clash of spin vs pace, SL have won the toss and will bat and the big question is can the SL top 4 survive the initial onslaught by Tait / Lee & Johnson.
If Tait is wild then Dilshan may get the Lankans off to a real flyer, if the bowlers hit their straps then there could be a major collapse. I'm not sure that there is a lot of middle ground - although the kiwis did recover from 70-6 to 206.

BACK SL total innings runs More than 250 £20 @ 1.68 (to win 13.60)

LAY SL total innings runs Less than 175 to win £50 @ 1.07 (risk 3.50)

Its also likely that a lay of Krejza to be top Oz bowler has profit in it - Lanka play spin well and I can't see more than 1 wicket for him today but after yesterday's disaster I will leave it at that.

Bank 52

This is a maximum bet, although it is early in the season it would be a shock if Salford can prevent Wigan remaining unbeaten.

They should have too much power upfront, and too much pace outside and will probably cover the 12.5pt handicap, but this is a recovery mission and early season there may still be improvement to come.

BACK Wigan to win £50 @ 1.2