ness_228

Following the toss and the inclusion of the potentially expensive (and rusty Sreesanth)

BACK SL runs 250+ @ 1.8 £15

Although not always trustworthy Nasser says the ball will come on to the bat early on and with the short boundaries (and Sreesanth spraying it about) it could result in Dilshan & Tharanga scoring freely early doors.

Bank 111

After a world cup that seems to have flown we have a final between 2 of the top sides in the competition and there has been no fluke in them getting to the final.

SL who have played their games at home may be at a slight disadvantage having to move to India for the final, and one of their mystery men is walking wounded (Murali) but beware wounded tigers.

Indias bowling attack showed improved control against Pakistan but is still their weak link and only Zaheer & Harbhajan are likely to run through the SL line-up, SL have several potential bowling match winners on their day although India do play spin well.

It seems likely that the winner of the toss will bat first - and try an apply maximum scoreboard pressure, a tactic that certainly affected Pakistan in the semi-final.

Is Sachin destined for his 100th international 100 on home soil in the final ?
Will Murali take a wicket with his final delivery - again ?
Will the Indian batting machine bat well in the power play ??
Will the Sri Lankan batting need runs from 5-11 - not many scored yet???

BACK SL to win £10 @ 2.68   (looking to lay off at around 1.7)
LAY Total sixes 0-4 to win £10 @ 2.94
LAY India 1st over runs 0-3 to win £5 @ 4.2
Also looking to back 1st inns runs after the toss 250+ (may be even 275)

Bank 116

The Kiwis produced a stunning display of fielding coupled with disciplined bowling to overturn the Chokers and fully deserve their semi-final berth.
SL fielded like amateurs, bowled sensibly and still comfortably saw off the weak and feeble challenge of the Enlish bowlers.

The danger for NZ is that the 1/4 final was their final and that they will be emotionally drained for another test 4 days later.
The danger for SL is that 3 wickets and NZ are into a batting line up without a great deal of form or practice in the tournament. However, the top 4 are scoring really heavily - and the pitch will not offer a great deal to the bowlers.

The pitch for the Eng v SL game (the same pitch as today) was low / slow and helpful to spin. I am not convinced that Vettori is 100% and the McCullum/Woodcock combo may be vulnerable to the Dilshan/Sangakkara/Jayawardene skill at playing the slow stuff.
The pitch will not assist Oram in the same way as the pitch v SA.

In their 1st match up SL cruised past NZ on a pitch that didnt turn a lot by 100+ runs, and the SL openers only got 6 between them !
Although the NZ batting has toughened up recently you still can't see them posting a big enough score batting 1st to trouble SL (need 275+) and you can see SL winning the toss, batting and making enough runs to back NZ into a corner - and possibly, possibly that could be dangerous as NZ do possess a lot of power and if the only way out is to attack, and, one or more than one of them comes off then they could chasedown a big score (a la Ireland or England vs India)

BACK NZ to score more 6's  £8 @ 1.89
BACK SL Opening Partnership more than 30 £15 @ 1.71
BACK Over 1.5 RunOuts £7 @ 2.42

Bank 113

Sri Lanka in their own back yard is not the best draw that England could have had, but there is hope. The Sri Lankan batting is not long - but the top 4 are very very good players, but if England could take 2 or 3 early scalps then there is definitely hope.

Scoring a decent total is, however, a different story, SL have the slinger Malinga and the mystery (even though he has been playing for ages) of Murali & Mendis, and a collapse is therefore possible at any time.

Sri Lanka look the obvious favourites, but so did South Africa.

Malinga is likely to open the bowling and although he has a lot more control than Shaun Tait he does tend to bowl the odd full toss, the odd wide one and the odd rank long hop (although a very quick long hop).

LAY England 1st over runs 0-3 to win £10 @ 2.62 (risk 16.20)
BACK England most sixes £7 @ 2.16

Bank 113

Will the Kiwis crumble to the SA pace - like they did a couple of weeks ago vs the Australians ? Possibly, but since then several of the leading bats have found a bit more form.

Will Vettori be truly fit ? will the bowling attack hold any real terrors for the top order of SA ?? Probably not, and probably not.

However, South Africa don't have the choker tag for no reason. They do seemingly have the ability to get themselves into fairly deep holes at the strangest times.

They have so far lost to England - from a very winnable position, got themselves into a deep hole vs India and escaped so they have had the right sort of close games to hone their skills.


NZ and SA both possess the sort of batting line ups to produce an explosive match - if NZ can survive the new ball barrage.

LAY Total Sixes 0-4 to win £10 @ 3.45 (risk 24.5)
LAY NZ Opening Partnership to win £20 @ 1.34 (risk 6.80)
LAY Vettori Top NZ Wicket Taker to win £5 (risk 15)

Bank 103

West Indies without Gayle and Roach are a completely different proposition and although India are short of the talismanic and mercurial Sehwag they still possess a very long very talented batting line up - and the pitch at Chennai is spin friendly too.

India batting first should rack up a very decent score, and will then bowl WIndies out without too much difficulty.

BACK Sachin Tendulkar to score 50 £8 @ 2.12
BACK India Inns Runs 250 or More £30 @ 1.3
LAY India 1st over runs 0-3 to win £10 @ 3.0 (risk 20)

Bank 123

England chasing a Grand Slam against a side that have been largely ineffective and disappointing this season - a walk in the park ?
Possibly, but probably not.
Englands early season accuracy went missing against Scotland, Ireland will be up for this, especially after the injustice of that try in Cardiff.

However, the English pack should hold their own in the scrum, and win their lineouts (even against O'Connell)and their backline (even with Banahan at centre) should give them advantage. O'Driscoll & D'Arcy are not the cutting edge of old although they will take advantage if there are gaps in the revised English midfield.

I can see England completing the Grand Slam with a bit, but not much to spare.

BACK England to win £15 @ 1.65
BACK England to win by less than 12.5  £5 @ 2.68

Bank 119

Can the Banglas play the Saffers pace ? If not, they will be leaving the competition here and now, and historically if the ball bounces the Banglas struggle.

Can the Saffers play the array of slow bowling that they will be presented with ? Although there is potentially a lack of depth to the batting there is also a lot of quality, Amla, Kallis & DeVilliers and without a quality strike bowler (of any variety) there is no real prospect of Bangladesh failing to stop the Saffers posting a very large score (if they bat first) but there is a possibility of defending a half decent score if any sort of pressure can be applied.

BACK SA to win £20 @ 1.23

Bank 100 (Back to square one)

This is Englands final match in the tournament unless they can beat the Windies. Fortunately they are not playing on the Bangalore road as the bowlers may well have disappeared to all parts of Bangalore town (Gayle & Pollard hit the ball very very hard).

The pitch at Chennai is bowler friendly and England have got to get another spinner in the side - especially as KP has gone home - why do they keep picking Yardy over Treadwell ??? but i guess that they will go that way again.

In the match v SA 180 was a more than adequate score as the ball did all sorts but 180 is a score that is always vulnerable to a big hitting cowboy - Pollard ?? - who could win a match effectively in 5 overs if the line / length weren't quite right (and sometime if they were).
The advantage England have is that they do play 4 (if not 5) front line bowlers and WIndies only pick 2 (and not sure if Roach's pace will be that effective at Chennai).

England will win in my opinion if they bat sensibly and bowl straight not always a given unfortunately.
There will not be lots of runs in the game as it is only a matter of time before a ball will have your name on it.

LAY Devon Smith to score 50 @ 3.9 (risk 29)
LAY Matt Prior to score 50 @ 3.7 (risk 27)

and if my bank had been healthier there would have been lays of Bell & Sarwan too. They take too long to get their runs and may receive the 'special ball' too soon

Bank 125

Chelsea were fairly comfortable in the first leg, and this is the only realistic chance of silverware this season so they cannot afford any slip ups.
Copenhagen are a reasonable - but not stellar - European side and there is no realistic chance of an upset this evening although the final score may depend on the ambition displayed by the English Champions (and the fact that Torres on the bench suggest they are going for goals [:D])

BACK Didier Drogba to score  £10 @ 2.38
BACK Nicolas Anelka to score £10 @ 2.54
BACK Any other Score  £5 @ 4.7