Todays game is a difficult one to weigh up for several reasons.
Firstly the pitch, hard and with grass according to the quotes from yesterday so bounce ???, no previous international games at the ground so no history, NZ did bowl out SL 'A' for 91 there on a previous visit (after scoring 276) who is to say how strong that side was, the only test at the ground resulted in a washout but WI batted for 103 overs to get 303 .... not an immediately fast scoring gorund then ?? (and the spinners did a lot of the bowling which is to be expected).
Secondly, only 2 NZ batsmen (Guptill and McCullum) have batted for any length of time in the WC so far (Vettori & N McCullum did get a decent knock against the Aussies but if it gets down to them quickly then Pakistan will be the favourites) as the Kiwis have notched up 2 10wkt wins. Early breakthroughs today would make them vulnerable to another collapse ?
And thirdly, the mercurial Pakistanis who have so far looked a lot more disciplined and controlled and with Afridi skittling all that is put in front of him have a bowler capable of control and wicket taking in the middle overs. The question is what will happen if a side is capable of exerting some real pressure. Will the wheels fall off ??
Not an easy one to call, if Pakistan bat they have shown that they are well capable of scoring a good score - and a pitch with bounce may serve them well as long as there is no extravagant movement (which is unlikely in my opinion) so a back of 250+, possibly 275+ would seem reasonable as NZ do not have the bowlers to rip the batting apart.
If NZ bat first a more difficult call, as there is no recent form of the middle order - other than the capitulation vs Aus to go on.
BACK Pakistan to win £20 @ 1.69 will lay off if PAK hit 1.05 or lower (learning my lesson slowly
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BACK 8 or more sixes in the match £8.50 @ 2.64 both sides have plenty of hitters and if it is a reasonably high scoring game you could see this home early doors
Bank C/F £80
Ross Taylor well played sir, although if Kamran could catch the story may well have been different but 100 off the last 5 overs, there must have been some fancy 300+ prices after 40 overs.