mvaughan

It's been another punishing day in the field for India as England have piled up the runs and Michael Vaughan expects an even earlier finish for the Third Test...


There is absolutely no way back for India in this game; England will go on and score 600 and I can see India then being bowled out for around 250. There is enough life in the pitch to suggest that they will once again struggle against England's swing bowlers.

But with England trading at around 1.25 there is no value in the Match Odds market, so I'm going for an early finish again (Michael correctly predicted a Day 4 Evening finish in the Second Test)

There have been some cracks in the pitch so it could even be a Day 4 Morning finish, currently trading at 8.2, but my money is going on a Day 4 Afternoon finish at 5.0.

This England side are very good at pinpointing weaknesses in teams and then really going at them. They are bullying India and it is great to see from an Englishman's point of view.

But you have to say that India have been very disappointing - they haven't got 300 once this series!

They are low in confidence and the body language is all wrong. They have played too much cricket; the tour for the West Indies was too long and then there is the IPL and the Champions League.

The schedule needs to be looked at, but the IPL and Champions League in particular, are cash cows for the BCCI so I don't expect anything to change.

In trying to find some value bets for the Indian second innings, I am going to stick with Sachin Tendulkar. He simply has to come good during this series so I am backing him at 4.7 to be the top Indian batsman second time out.


Recommended Bets

Test Match Finish: Day 4 Afternoon @ 5.0
Top India 2nd Inns Bat: Sachin Tendulkar @ 4.7


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Not even the return of Virender Sehwag is likely to change India's fortunes as we move on to Edgbaston. England will like the conditions and we have to back them to carry on winning.


Tim Bresnan is expected to keep his place with Chris Tremlett still out injured and he's a great player to have as cover.

I always felt that the early criticism about him carrying a bit too much weight was slightly unfair. He's a big, strong lad who's never going to be wafer thin but if there were any concerns from the England management that he was carrying a bit too much timber, he certainly dealt with them and looks a superb athlete these days.

He bats, bowls and fields and is right up there with the handiest numbers 8s in the Test game. He's fortunate in that he's come into a super-confident, successful team on a tremendous winning run and that's the best possible environment to be in when you're still relatively new to this level of the game.

For India Virender Sehwag returns but there are plenty of other changes enforced through injury. Sreesanth could be dangerous at Edgabston but RP Singh has been out of Test cricket for a while, I think England have learnt how to play Praveen Kumar by now and all in all, I'd be surprised to see India take 15 wickets in the match, let alone 20.

We could have the liveliest wicket of the series so far at Edgbaston and that will only favour England.

I have a feeling that if MS Dhoni wins the toss he'll choose to bat first almost irrespective of what he makes of the wicket. Trying to get a big first innings score may well be their best chance of trying to put pressure on England but that's easier said than done when you consider the injury problems in India's batting line-up and the way the England bowlers are playing right now. I honestly can't see how England won't win this Test match.

This is very much a result wicket and having predicted that we'd have a result by the end of the evening session on Day Four, I'm sticking with that same bet again, this time at 7.0.


Recommended Bet:

3 pts Back England to win @ 2.44
2 pts Back Evening Session Day Four in the Test Match End market @ 7.0


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There were four obvious candidates for the man-of-the-match award at Lord's in the form of Kevin Pietersen, James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Matt Prior. I don't think anyone can argue with KP getting it after a double-century in tricky conditions but with an aggregate of 174 runs across the two innings plus five catches, one could have made a really good case for Prior. Especially when we recall that England were in total disarray when the Sussex man came to the crease. His brilliant century turned the game around and meant India were never in with a chance of chasing a score of over 400.

How do we define Prior's role within the team? He's an all-rounder. When it comes to wicket-keepers I define them as that if I feel they're capable of batting somewhere in the top five. As it happens I don't think he ever will as an England player, but he certainly wouldn't look out of place there. For my money he's the best Test wicket-keeper batsman in the game. If Kumar Sangakkara was still wearing the gloves you could say the former Sri Lanka captain may just about edge him out, but he's in the team solely as a batsman these days in the longest format. As for MS Dhoni, he's a wonderful ODI player but with a Test average of 38, it's a good seven runs short of Prior's at an incredible 45. See what I mean about him being able to bat in the top five?

The debate will roll on as to why he can't replicate his Test form in limited-overs cricket. For me the answer is that they're two completely different games. It was the same with me. I could go out and score big runs in Tests but when it came to ODIs I struggled to replicate that form. The ball, the tactics and the field placements are all different. Some players, like Marcus Trescothick, can master both of them with the greatest of ease but others can't. But England fans needn't worry too much. In Craig Kieswetter England have a good keeper who is also an aggressive opener capable of hitting over the top, so they're in good hands.

There's no reason why Prior can't go out and score more runs at Trent Bridge but in terms of finding a winner in the top batsman market I'm going to go with someone batting a little higher up the order. I'm ruling out the openers and also Jonathan Trott because they may have to bat in tough, swinging conditions, as Ed Hawkins points out. Kevin Pietersen is obviously in tremendous form after that 200 but his Test record at Trent Bridge isn't that great despite starting his County career over there. Ed is going for Eoin Morgan, but for me the man to side with is Ian Bell at 6.8 because he really needs a big score after just 45 runs in two innings at Lord's. The Bell of old may have crumbled under the pressure but the new one is likely to play a big innings exactly because the heat is on him.

The same rationale regarding avoiding the top order applies to India as well, which leads us to that man Sachin Tendulkar. I took a leap of faith that he'd put his poor record at Lord's behind him and top score. But sometimes it's just not meant to be and he'll look back at a failure to score a century at the home of cricket as one of the very few disappointments of his career. I fancy him to come good at the second time of asking.

Recommended Bets:
1pt Back Ian Bell to top score for England in the first innings at 6.8
2pts Back Sachin Tendulkar to top score for India in the second innings at 4.6

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We're in profit for this Test series courtesy of England's superb win. None of our top batsman bets came good but a pre-match back of England at 3.5 plus another mid-match top-up at 2.7 ensured we have some winnings in the bank to re-invest for the second Test.
There were endless positives to take from England's performance. The fact they took 20 wickets on a traditionally good batting track against arguably the best batting line-up in the world; the manner in which the bowlers worked together as a unit; and the way England fought back in their second innings from 62-5 down to post a target that India were never going to be able to chase. People will remember this match for Kevin Pietersen's double-century and England's bowling display on the last day but the passage of play in which Matt Prior and Stuart Broad put together a superb partnership to take the game away from MS Dhoni's team was arguably the key session. Had it not been for that partnership, India could have been chasing 300 to win the Test and I would have fancied them to make that. Those runs may well have been the difference between England being 1-0 up or 1-0 down.

Brilliant though England's win was, we have to remember that they did it without having to face India's key bowler, Zaheer Khan, for most of their two innings. Had he been able to bowl it's not unreasonable to suggest that England would have fallen a good 150 runs short of their aggregate total. India are sweating on the fitness of the left-arm paceman and will be desperate to have him back as they go about repairing the damage from Lord's.

On to Trent Bridge then, a venue I highlighted pre-series as a result wicket. The ball generally swings here and life is always pretty hard for whoever has to open the innings on the first morning; the captain who wins the toss will normally choose to have a bowl. Assuming Chris Tremlett is fit after a couple of niggles, he'll retain his place in the England side but if he doesn't make it, Tim Bresnan is likely to step in. As for India, should Zaheer Khan miss out, Dhoni will have pretty much a straight choice to make between Munaf Patel and Sreesanth and the latter is probably favourite to get the nod. India may also try to think of a way of getting Yuvraj Singh into the side, a man who has plenty of experience of playing over here and can be a destructive batsman at his best.

I said before the first Test that England were a far better side in their own conditions and that looked to be the case over the course of the five days in north-west London. Trent Bridge is far more of an "English wicket" than Lord's so with their tails up after going 1-0 up and the fact that Khan will either miss out or not be fully fit, we have to keep faith in England at 2.16 to win again. Previous England sides may have taken their foot off the gas somewhat after such a great result but this current team has an incredible hunger and determination about them. They've targeted that number one spot in the Test rankings for a while and, now that they're so close to achieving it, they're certainly not going to be guilty of any complacency.

For my second bet I'm going to go with a bit of a long shot, but one I think represents real value. So far all of England's four Tests this summer have gone to the final session of the final day but I think that may be about to change at Trent Bridge. There will be a lot more in the wicket for the bowlers to exploit and I have a feeling those with tickets for day five could well be making enquiries about refunds nearer the time. With the forecast looking good, I'm going to take a punt that the match will finish in the evening session of day four.

Recommended Bets:
3pts Back England to win the second Test @ 2.16
2pts Back Day Four - Evening in the Test Match End market @ 8.0

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I've spoken already about how I think India will be a little under-cooked coming into the First Test after having played just the one three-day warm-up match.

I'll make no apologies for constantly talking about playing in 'English conditions' throughout this series but we simply can't under-estimate how different they are to conditions found anywhere else in the world. If Test cricket is almost a different game to One-Day Internationals for example, so is playing in conditions that are alien to certain teams. Especially when that team is India. Back home they're used to playing on some of the flattest wickets in the world where the ball simply doesn't misbehave and provided you're in good nick and don't do anything stupid, you can score big and score quickly.

Not so over here. Take the fourth ODI between England and Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge for example. England bowled on a green wicket where the ball swung, dipped, seamed and did plenty of other interesting things. Before Sri Lanka knew it , they were 20-4 and absolutely clueless as to what to do. And that was a top-order that included such names as Mahela Jayawardene and Tillekeratne Dilshan. Hardly inexperienced players and certainly guys who have played over here before.

India's batsmen will take time to get used to playing over here and that may well allow England to draw first blood. Lord's has a reputation as a fantastic batting track but if it's overcast and there's rain in the air, batting will be tough the same as it would on any other English track. If there's any hint of swing in the air I'm sure both captains will elect to have a bowl first. If that's India and Zaheer Khan finds his line and length early on, England could be two or three down by lunch-time. But that's not a given and if it's England who have the new ball in their hands in bowler-friendly conditions, India could be more than three down at the break and already hoping for rain to help them salvage a draw.

How will England line up then to give them the best possible chance of going 1-0 up? At the moment it's a straight choice between Stuart Broad and Tim Bresnan for that all-rounder's spot at number eight. A case could be made for either but I think the decision will be made on the day after the skipper and coach have assessed the wicket. Broad is probably favourite because he's been part of the set-up for longer but we saw that England had no problem dropping him for the final ODI against Sri Lanka in favour of Samit Patel, so he's certainly not deemed 'untouchable'.

I've already said I fancy Ian Bell to be top England batsman over the course of the series but Jonathan Trott is the call for Lord's. He loves batting there and is just one of those players who can go a couple of weeks without playing a competitive game and then just come in and play like he scored a century the day before.

As for India, it's not the most imaginative wager in the world but I can't look beyond Sachin Tendulkar. There will be nerves amongst even the more experienced batsmen in India's ranks because it's the First Test, because it's at Lord's and because they're the top ranked team in the world. But this man has seen it all before and will relish the challenge. Back the "Little Master" to master England's bowling attack.

Recommended Bets:
2 pts Back England to win at 3.45
3 pts Back Jonathan Trott to be England first innings top batsman at 5.1
2 pts Back Sachin Tendulkar to be India first innings top batsman at 4.2

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When looking at the most likely winner of a Test series we need to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the two sides when it comes to the three disciplines of batting, bowling and fielding. To this I'll add an assessment of who has the better captain. In limited-overs cricket the skipper has far less time to think on his feet and requires a quick brain but in Test cricket you need to get the big decisions right. Bat or bowl? Enforce the follow-on or bat again? Take the new ball or hope the old one starts to reverse swing? In Test cricket he needs to be at the very least 10 overs ahead of the game and he's often the man who can sway the game one way or another through his decision-making at crunch time.

On paper India have the better batting-line up. Heck, two of their batters - Sachin Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag - have just made the all-time ICC's all-time Test XI. Not only have England not got a current player in that team, no England player has made the team at all! How Sir Ian Botham wasn't included I'll never know but that's a discussion for another day.

Sehwag misses the first two matches through injury but Tendulkar is fit and raring to go. But that only tells half the story. You'll hear me talking time and time again about playing in English conditions and the reality is that England's top seven are far more suited to playing over here than India's. MS Dhoni's men have endless talent in that batting order to go on and get big scores, that much is obvious, but they may well take a couple of Tests to get used to these tracks and the swinging ball. After all, they've only played the one three-day match (against Somerset) in preparation for this and even that was rain-affected.

If the batting is just about even, the bowling certainly isn't. Zaheer Khan will be extremely dangerous over here but he can't bowl every other over. Harbhajan Singh has a good record against England but he's been in poor form recently. For the most part India won't be able to put pressure on the England batsmen from both ends, whereas England will. Graeme Swann is arguably a better off-spinner in English conditions than Singh and James Anderson and Chris Tremlett can cause India plenty of problems too; the first with swing, the second with bounce.

Fielding is probably less significant in Test cricket than it is in limited-overs cricket but catches still win matches. As does the odd brilliant run-out. India have a good slip cordon but there are some old bodies in that side with players the wrong side of 35 who just don't have the athleticism to perform wonders in the field anymore. England are better at running between the wickets, too.

Andrew Strauss or MS Dhoni? The latter has been there and done it in all formats for a while now and has a sparkle about him that few possess. But Strauss has a fantastic record as England Test skipper and keeps a cool head at all times. He knows his troops well and gets the best out of them. There's not much to choose between these two in the longest format.

All in all we have to conclude that England are better equipped to win the series. Of course their price of 2.2 reflects that but odds-against about England in a home series has to be snapped up, irrespective of the opposition.

For top England series batsman I'm going to agree with Ralph Ellis and side with Ian Bell. Jonathan Trott is a big threat to him but this could just be the series when Bell scores mountains of runs against the very best opposition in the game. If the ball is swinging early on and Zaheer is making it talk, the top order will be under huge pressure but coming in at five, Bell probably won't have to deal with it. He looks a great bet at 7.4.

As for India, it takes a brave man to oppose Sachin Tendulkar. If you choose to back him at around 4.0 you will have had a very decent bet but I'd rather side with VVS Laxman, who is a far bigger price at 6.4. He has good experience of having played over here at both international and county level before and plays the short ball very well off the back foot. With Stuart Broad and Chris Tremlett planning on bowling plenty of bouncers, playing them and actually scoring off them, will be a major asset.

Recommended Bets:
4 pts Back England to win the Series @ 2.2
1pt Back England to win the Series 1-0 @ 10.5; 1pt back England to win 2-0 @ 8.0
2 pts Back Ian Bell to be Series top England batsman @ 7.4
2 pts Back VVS Laxman to be Series top Indian batsman @ 6.4

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One of the major reasons as to why England have been so successful over the last three or four years has been the form of Graeme Swann. He was an integral part of the side that won back-to-back Ashes series and the last T20 World Cup.

He's a classic example of a late bloomer in the international game. He had a tough time at Northamptonshire in the early part of his career. Everyone seemed to acknowledge his talent but for whatever reason he never really kicked on and only very rarely showed glimpses of the match-winning spinner he could be. His move to Nottinghamshire, after Monty Panesar came onto the Northamptonshire scene, was probably the best career move he ever made and proof that county cricketers sometimes just need to move on elsewhere to better themselves as players. Chris Tremlett is another example of that and we've seen how his game has improved since he swapped Hampshire for Surrey.

Swann had an England call-up in the late 90s but it just didn't happen for him back then. People have suggested his attitude wasn't quite right at the time but I'd rather take the view that, in a number of different ways, he just wasn't quite ready to play at that level. He certainly is now!

The reason he's such a dangerous bowler has a lot to do with just how much he spins the ball. Some guys like Anil Kumble took endless wickets without actually doing that; it was the height and angle at which the ball was bowled that caused batsmen so much trouble. But Swanny really does rip it and in the process gets it to dip and in the right conditions, to drift into the batter. He's also such a great guy to have on your team because he's an aggressive bowler who looks to take wickets rather than just restrict runs. That said, if there was one criticism to make of him it would be that on occasions in ODIs he should ask the skipper for even more attacking fields to really put the opposition under pressure.

With Swann it's not just about the bowling, either. He's a right character and his jovial attitude in the dressing room can lift the mood when morale is low, or fight the boredom during those empty hours when rain stops play. I think the England team as a whole are a happier and more relaxed set of players with him around the place.

As a fielder Swann's up there with the best slip catchers in the game and he can bat a bit, too. His record for Notts is very decent, often batting in the top four in limited-overs cricket and I'd like to occasionally see him promoted up the order and told to play his natural, aggressive game. We've seen how sides like India occasionally send a lower-order boundary-hitter in at four or five in the right circumstances and I'd like to see England take a gamble like that from time to time.

He's 32 now and there will be those assuming he's got just two more years in him in international cricket, simply because that's the age at which most players call it a day at the highest level. But I'm not so sure. There aren't really any young English spinners putting any pressure on him for his place and if he carries on practising as hard as he does and maintaining the same love of the game, he may well still be an England player when the next ODI World Cup comes around.

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On a good wicket at Lord's Sri Lanka found batting a lot easier than England did. They were also far more disciplined with the ball while showing greater imagination in terms of varying the lengths and pace at which they were bowling. As is so often the case, Lasith Malinga was at times unplayable while most of the other pace bowlers on the day were just getting increasingly frustrated at getting no assistance from a docile pitch.

But none of this came as a surprise to us really. In the build-up to the match we talked about how Sri Lanka would prefer a good wicket at Lord's to the track they got at The Oval. The likes of Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara normally cash in on these wickets, even though this time it was youngster Dinesh Chandimal who top scored. England need to learn how to score heavily on flat wickets in the sunshine because that's what you get on most grounds around the world these days and there's actually a case to say that the curators in England should continue to prepare those sort of pitches so they get used to them. Where else other than over here do you get a ball swinging the way it did at The Oval? It goes a long way to explaining why England have been so strong at home in recent times and flopped away from these shores in 50-over cricket. Just look at the post-Ashes series at the start of the year and the recent World Cup.

These are long-term discussions though and the only thing Alastair Cook and Andy Flower can do ahead of the fourth ODI at Trent Bridge is mix things up a bit and pick a side that will give them the best possible chance of winning the match in the conditions they find on the day. Occasionally the ball swings up in Nottingham and batting is hard but on other occasions it can be a belter of a wicket. A few years back England posted just short of 400 against Bangladesh.

My gut feeling is that England will decide they don't want too much shuffling around in their batting order and that, with Ian Bell failing to make an impact batting at six, he'll miss out. Jade Dernbach has shown some promise but he's been expensive and I think he won't play either. Local boy Samit Patel will probably be brought in for Dernbach which will provide an extra spin option, whilst strengthening the batting. I think Ravi Bopara will also get a game which provides a good medium pace option. He's also a bigger hitter than Bell so if they need boundaries at the end of the innings, the Essex man is probably better suited to getting them.

I think we'll have another good pitch at Trent Bridge and one that could play slower than what we've seen so far in this Series; that means that at the current prices, we have to go with Sri Lanka again at 2.3. Mahela Jayawardene has been in imperious form but he can't keep on batting like that so this time I'm backing Sangakkara (5.2) to top score for the tourists.

The other bet I like is that there will be more than 1.5 run-outs in the match. Tillekeratne Dilshan and Chandimal were both run out at Headingley and there was some questionable running from some of England's top order on Sunday so I think we should get at least two at Trent Bridge at a very attractive 2.2.

Recommended Bets:
Back Sri Lanka to win @ 2.3
Back Kumar Sangakkara to top score for Sri Lanka @ 5.2
Back over 1.5 run outs in the match @ 2.2

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Not many people in England will have known too much about Dinesh Chandimal prior to Sunday's match at Lord's, but they certainly do now. Chasing a decent score at just about the most famous ground in the world, the young Sri Lankan batsman went about his business with a calm head and scored a superb match-winning century.

He was peppered with some short deliveries, mostly by Stuart Broad (who perhaps overdid it a tad), but he weathered that storm and scored quickly against most of the other England bowlers. He has a good technique, looks solid in defence and can play both orthodox cricket shots as well as improvised strokes that may look a little odd, but are highly effective. He hit a couple of big sixes and found the boundary rope with regularity in those crucial middle overs to assist his team in maintaining a healthy run rate throughout the chase.

Chandimal is still only 21 and has played just six ODIs but he's already got two centuries to his name in this format and looks to have a bright future ahead of him. At a time when a couple of the old heads have been left out or retired, whilst Upal Tharanga is out of the team for very different reasons, Sri Lanka really need a couple of these young guns to come into the side and perform. And perform he did on Sunday.

It's fascinating how the Asian sides seem to keep producing these talented youngsters who look right at home in international cricket as soon as they break into the side. India's Virat Kohli took the step up to senior cricket with great ease after shining for their Under-19 side and Cheteshwar Pujara played a match-winning knock for India against Australia a few months ago in a tough run chase in what was only his first or second Test.

I love the way these guys come in and aren't intimidated by the occasion or the opposition. They just play to their strengths, score in their favourite areas and treat it as any other match. That's a sign of true confidence in their ability and something up-and-coming England batsman can certainly learn from.

Chandimal is 6.6 to top-score again for Sri Lanka against England at Trent Bridge on Wednesday.

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Mahela Jayawardene reminded us of what an outrageous talent he is with that scintillating knock at Headingley that set up a convincing win for Sri Lanka on Friday. He's obviously in great form at the minute, but he's not the only one.

I correctly predicted Sri Lanka would win at 2.4, that Jayawardene would top score for the tourists at 5.0 and that England's opening partnership would pass the 30 run mark at 2.0 before losing their first wicket. If the current England ODI side were picked on tipping results rather than cricket form I think I'd be due a recall!

The key to working out how the remaining matches in this ODI Series are going to go is assessing what sort of a wicket they're going to be playing on in the next three games. We saw that when the ball is swinging a bit because of moisture in the air or the effect of floodlights it's England who should be favourites. There's a greater margin for error and you can pick up wickets with deliveries that may not have been particularly great balls. But on a flatter, truer wicket like the one we got at Headingley, one has to bowl straighter and with greater variety to take wickets and Sri Lanka did that a lot better. It always helps when one of your batsman goes on and gets a huge score of course but another point to make is that the likes of Jayawardene, Kumar Sangakkara and Angelo Matthews were a lot more resourceful than England's top order when it came to finding gaps in the field and playing improvised shots. As a rule of thumb we can say that the better the wicket for these remaining ODIs, the bigger a chance Sri Lanka have of winning.

One thing England need to think about is the role Jonathan Trott plays in this side. You can't drop a guy who averages in excess of 50 in 50-over cricket but he's simply not scoring quickly enough and if he's going to play, England need to do one of two things. Either Alastair Cook or Craig Kieswetter need to be extremely aggressive when they bat with him or he needs to drop down to number four and let Kevin Pietersen come in at three and make better use of the fielding restrictions in the first 10-15 overs. Plenty for Alastair Cook and Andy Flower to think about over the next few weeks.

My gut feeling is that Lord's will be another good batting track and we've already seen how that gives Sri Lanka the edge. For my money they should be marginal favourites so we simply must take the 2.3 about another win for Tillekeratne Dilshan's men. I don't think we'll get quite as big a first innings total as we got at Headingley but if someone gets themselves in, there's certainly the potential to go on and get a century. For England top scorer I'm going to go with Craig Kieswetter this time.


Recommended Bets:

Back Sri Lanka to win at 2.3
Back a century to be scored at 2.4
Back Craig Kieswetter to be top England batsman at 5.5


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