mvaughan

On a good wicket at Lord's Sri Lanka found batting a lot easier than England did. They were also far more disciplined with the ball while showing greater imagination in terms of varying the lengths and pace at which they were bowling. As is so often the case, Lasith Malinga was at times unplayable while most of the other pace bowlers on the day were just getting increasingly frustrated at getting no assistance from a docile pitch.

But none of this came as a surprise to us really. In the build-up to the match we talked about how Sri Lanka would prefer a good wicket at Lord's to the track they got at The Oval. The likes of Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara normally cash in on these wickets, even though this time it was youngster Dinesh Chandimal who top scored. England need to learn how to score heavily on flat wickets in the sunshine because that's what you get on most grounds around the world these days and there's actually a case to say that the curators in England should continue to prepare those sort of pitches so they get used to them. Where else other than over here do you get a ball swinging the way it did at The Oval? It goes a long way to explaining why England have been so strong at home in recent times and flopped away from these shores in 50-over cricket. Just look at the post-Ashes series at the start of the year and the recent World Cup.

These are long-term discussions though and the only thing Alastair Cook and Andy Flower can do ahead of the fourth ODI at Trent Bridge is mix things up a bit and pick a side that will give them the best possible chance of winning the match in the conditions they find on the day. Occasionally the ball swings up in Nottingham and batting is hard but on other occasions it can be a belter of a wicket. A few years back England posted just short of 400 against Bangladesh.

My gut feeling is that England will decide they don't want too much shuffling around in their batting order and that, with Ian Bell failing to make an impact batting at six, he'll miss out. Jade Dernbach has shown some promise but he's been expensive and I think he won't play either. Local boy Samit Patel will probably be brought in for Dernbach which will provide an extra spin option, whilst strengthening the batting. I think Ravi Bopara will also get a game which provides a good medium pace option. He's also a bigger hitter than Bell so if they need boundaries at the end of the innings, the Essex man is probably better suited to getting them.

I think we'll have another good pitch at Trent Bridge and one that could play slower than what we've seen so far in this Series; that means that at the current prices, we have to go with Sri Lanka again at 2.3. Mahela Jayawardene has been in imperious form but he can't keep on batting like that so this time I'm backing Sangakkara (5.2) to top score for the tourists.

The other bet I like is that there will be more than 1.5 run-outs in the match. Tillekeratne Dilshan and Chandimal were both run out at Headingley and there was some questionable running from some of England's top order on Sunday so I think we should get at least two at Trent Bridge at a very attractive 2.2.

Recommended Bets:
Back Sri Lanka to win @ 2.3
Back Kumar Sangakkara to top score for Sri Lanka @ 5.2
Back over 1.5 run outs in the match @ 2.2

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