mvaughan

England's young players are learning very quickly just how tough it is to win in India. On Friday they made a pretty good start with the ball and had India in trouble at four wickets down before MS Dhoni's big-hitting master-class at the end of the innings guided them to an imposing total. They then made a decent start with the bat when Alastair Cook and Kevin Pietersen were finding the boundary with relative ease before a disappointing middle-order collapse.

In fairness to England, it was an important toss and batting first gave India the edge. Had Cook's men batted first they could have posted a big total themselves and put India under pressure.

There's no need for Andy Flower to panic just yet and make big changes. After all, we're only one match into the series. But if we're going to get another turning wicket in Delhi on Monday it may be necessary to play another spinner so we might see Scott Borthwick come in for one of the pace men, probably Steve Finn. The more important thing though is that someone like Kevin Pietersen comes in and plays a big innings. Quick 30s and 40s don't win you games out in India, you need to bat for longer and make really big scores, just like Dhoni did the other day. With no Eoin Morgan in the side because of injury, KP is the main man in that middle-order and he needs to be the one who anchors the innings and bats for at least half of the overs.

Another guy who needs to start performing is Samit Patel. In the first match India played him with ease and looked like they were going to score off every ball when he was bowling. In the sub-Continent you need both your spinners performing to a high standard or else you're in trouble. He could do with a decent score with the bat too as he's in the team as an all-rounder.

The other spinner, Graeme Swann, was excellent again. But I'd like to see a slight change of tactics from Cook and have Swann bowl during the powerplay overs. If India want to take him on, so be it, but I'd fancy him to take wickets at the start of the innings and that could all of a sudden make India nervous and that could help slow down the run rate when the other bowlers were in action.

Either way, India are a good bet to go 2-0 up at 1.8. They batted extremely well, particularly late on, and their spinners were superb. They looked far more comfortable in the conditions, just like England did a few weeks ago when they were at home and the ball was swinging. England's best chance of course is to bat first and try to make life difficult for India under lights but unless it's a really big total, India should win. If they do, we might be on for a whitewash here.

Dhoni's innings the other day was one of the best I've seen in recent times and showed just how devastating he can be on these sort of wickets. For me, he's India's best batsman in this format. He's an interesting price at around 7.0 to top score again but there's always the concern he may not be at the crease for long enough. Virat Kohli was looking very good the other day until a superb catch from Pietersen on the boundary ended his innings, and is the preferred choice at around 5.2 to top score this time round.

3 pts Back India to win @ 1.8
1 pt Back Virat Kohli to be Top Indian batsman @ 5.2

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I've already said in my series preview that Friday's match could well be England's best chance of winning a match. Never underestimate the importance of meticulous preparation and the work done by the back-room staff in briefing the players on what to expect from the opposition. And in that regard England are a lot better at doing those things than India. If that's the case, Alastair Cook's men have a great chance of going 1-0 up and if they manage to do that, a great chance of pushing India all the way. That wouldn't be great news for my 4-1 correct score prediction but it would show just how far England have come as an ODI team.

If it's India who win this first game however, England could be in for a really torrid time and lose the series heavily.

The first thing England need to is get their team selection right. And for me that means picking Jonny Bairstow in the middle-order, more precisely to come in at five. He was superb in that final ODI in Cardiff and we've already seen plenty of fireworks from him in the warm-up matches. We've seen for years how the likes of MS Dhoni and Suresh Raina can be so destructive for India at the end of an innings and England need someone of their own who can clear the ropes. That may mean that someone like Ian Bell misses out to start with but it's a gamble worth taking. As for the bowling, if these wickets are going to spin, then play plenty of spinners. Hardly rocket-science but I'd like to see Graeme Swann, Samit Patel and Scott Borthwick all included and also for Kevin Pietersen to be given the odd over. Steve Finn and Tim Bresnan would be the 'quicks' I'd use with Ravi Bopara also getting a bowl from time to time with his accurate medium-pacers.

If Alastair Cook wins the toss he should bat first.Chasing in India can be tough under lights but England need to be ambitious in terms of posting totals. Anything less than 300 can often be chased at most Indian grounds so they have to set their sights high and realise that what seems like a good score in England isn't necessary competitive over there. That's precisely where the likes of Bairstow comes in and the key will be to build a platform, keep wickets in hand and tell him to go out and express himself. If he gets out going for the big shot so be it, but there's no point in dying wondering.

All things considered England are value at 2.16 to win this match but remember that the lay button is there next to England's name, should India find themselves in a spot of bother chasing a big total. These are good wickets and small boundaries and a couple of good overs with the bat can change the course of the match so it may be worth laying Cook's men at a short price if you have the chance. Because with the likes of Virat Kohli and Suresh Raina in the side, India always have the ability to bounce back from a poor start. A century to be scored at around 2.1 is worth a dabble as is a punt on Jonathan Trott to top score for England at 5.2. He won't always get his runs quickly but coming in at three he'll be at the crease for a long time and if he gets going, that will help England's cause no end.

2 pts Back England to win @ 2.16
2 pts Back a century to be scored @ 2.1
1 pt Back Jonathan Trott to be top England batsman @ 5.2

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Injuries, losing tosses and even Duckworth-Lewis have all consipired against India at one stage or another but a first chance to bat second may finally see them secure a win on this Tour. Or at the very least, come pretty close once again.

Cricket can really be a cruel game at times. And don't India know it. They could easily have been 2-1 up in this series going into the last match at Cardiff but find themselves 3-0 down. First it was injuries to world-class players including Sachin Tendulkar, Virender Sehwag, Yuvraj Singh and Zaheer Khan. Then it was the four tosses in a row that they lost and meant they had to bat first when they're better suited to chasing. And when they did eventually get themselves into winning positions it was first the weather (the first ODI that ended with no result) and then Duckworth-Lewis (4th ODI) that denied them - England needed 11 off seven on Sunday with two-tail enders at the crease (plus Stuart Broad who was injured) and India would have been heavy favourites had the rain not come again.

Still, we can't ignore the fact that their bowling hasn't been up to scratch. In all those matches they ended up setting decent totals and had they performed better with the ball they should have won at least a couple of them irrespective of the bad luck that I mentioned. The spinners have done OK but in the pace department, India have been found wanting. The good news for them is that when these two sides resume hostilities over in India next month pure pace will be less of a factor on those slow wickets, not to mention the fact they'll have some of those star men back after injury.

The big positive for England over this series has been the continued progress made by Jade Dernbach. He was a promising youngster before these matches but has now established himself as a proven performer at this level who can handle the pressure of bowling at the death against top players. I've just said that in India pace will be less important and that variation will be key, particularly in the last few overs, so the Surrey man - with his excellent slower delivery and ability to reverse the old ball - will surely have a big role to play in India next month.

The other big plus was Ravi Bopara's knock on Sunday. It was an innings of great maturity and composure and that may have been the day the penny dropped. He saved England from a losing position and this may be the match that will make Bopara believe he is indeed a match-winner at this level rather than just a flashy all-rounder who plays the odd eye-catching cameo.

I'm expecting a tough wicket at Cardiff where batsmen will really have to grind for their runs. There may also be some movement off the pitch first up so once again, this is a toss that India will be desperate to win. If they do, MS Dhoni will surely elect to bowl first and make the most of any assistance in the wicket as well as give his batsmen a target to chase, which as we've seen already, they haven't yet had the chance to do.

Stuart Broad joins Eoin Morgan on the treatment table and he'll be a big loss for England as he's been one of England's most consistent performers in all formats over the past couple of years. India will be desperate to finally win a match on this Tour and though they'll have their work cut out if they do have to bat first, it's still worth taking a chance that they'll go favourites at some stage. So the bet is to back them pre-match at 2.37 with a view to laying them off at around 1.9 at some stage.

Ian Bell has played well this Series and the pitch at Cardiff should suit him more than some of the other batsmen. There's a danger Bopara can play another blinder but there's also a chance he'll come in a little too late to face enough balls to allow him to post a big score, so Bell is my selection for top England bat at 5.3.

Back-to-lay India @ 2.37
Back Ian Bell to be top England batsman @ 5.3

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The fact that the ECB saw fit to leave KP out shows, firstly, that England have got a very good squad with competition for every position.

That was reinforced by the batting performance in the absence of both Pietersen and Eoin Morgan on Tuesday night.

There has been talk that Morgan's injury will boost India, but he wasn't missed at the Rose Bowl and you have got to remember that there are still players in the team who have plenty to prove in the one-day format; from Alastair Cook to Ian Bell to Craig Kieswetter.

I think this series was a good opportunity to 'rest' Pietersen; I'm not convinced he is a shoe-in anyway, with an average of 20-odd over the past two years. And you'd think that if anyone needs a rest it would be one of the bowlers. Put it this way, the ECB wasn't disappointed to leave him out.

The strength-in-depth isn't just restricted to the batsman. Jade Dernbach has been a great find - just what England needed, a bowler who can finish the innings. And as well as keeping the runs down, Dernbach takes wickets, which is vital.

You just need to look at the bowlers who aren't playing in this series: Onions, Tremlett, Woakes and Shazhad could all come in and do a good job.

Add this to the emergence of the likes of Ben Stokes and the future is looking bright for England as a one-day outfit.

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It was good entertainment at the Rose Bowl the other night, with some high-class batting from both sides and top quality fielding from England, but it was once again so evident that India simply have no bowling attack at all.

The only way I can see India succeeding on Friday is putting England into bat and then relying on their batsman to chase down a total.

They have plenty of quality in the batting department, as I have said before, with Patel, Kohil and - in particular - Rahane impressing greatly and they have enough to chase 280 or 300 on the Oval pitch.

But, unlike my esteemed Betfair colleague Ed Hawkins, I can't back an India victory given the lack of bowling options, so another back-to-lay bet at 2.5, trading at around 2.0 would be the way to go. That was the profitable route on Tuesday night and has every chance of happening again.

Looking at the top batsman markets, I'm going for one of the Indian young guns, Rahane for India, available at 4.7, whle 'Mr Consistent' Jonathan Trott has to be backed at 5.0 for England. He will be relishing batting on the Oval pitch.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Jonathan Trott for Top England Batsman at 5.0
4pts Back-to-lay India at 2.48

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India got a bit lucky with the conditions on Saturday with the clouds coming over just as England came out to bat. If the weather had stayed the same, England would have chased down 275.

But there were hopeful signs that we will see a closer battle during this one-day series than we did the Tests, with some of the young Indian batsman showing real appetite to get runs.

Rahane looked like a proper player - a world beater even - Patel played well to get his 95, while Kohli shows real promise.

As a result of the injection of youth, we saw an Indian side with more energy which can only bode well for the series.

We're at the Rose Bowl on Tuesday, so it could be a slow pitch which would suit the Indian batsman. With India currently priced up at 2.56, a back-to-lay could be the value bet, as I can see them falling to around evens.

But it's very much a case of waiting to see what the weather holds as the forecast isn't great. If it's cloudy, England immediately become more of a threat, but as we saw on Saturday, the weather always brings an element of luck into play. This is very much one for in-play betting rather than getting behind a side before the start.

Looking at the other markets, I'll still backing the experience of Rahul Dravid to be top Indian batsman at around 5.5, despite the promise of the youngsters. As for the home team, we'll go for the banker, Jonathan Trott, available at 4.5.

Recommended Bet: Back to lay India at 2.56

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England added a T20 victory to their Series whitewash and MS Dhoni will be scratching his head wondering how he's going to beat England in any format at the minute.

Jade Dernback bowled superbly on Wednesday night and Eoin Morgan was the difference with the bat. If it hadn't been for his knock at a time when England were losing quick wickets and threatening to lose their way in a tough run chase, India would have won the game.

For all of the criticism aimed at England after a disastrous ODI Series out in Australia and a crushing defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka in the quarter-finals of the World Cup, we shouldn't forget that they remain extremely strong at home and it's been a long time since they lost a Series at home in the 50-over format.

There are two main areas they need to really work on though, if they're to become as competitive abroad as they are at home. The first is that the guys who get starts go on and score hundreds. It sounds an obvious thing to say but all too often we've seen English batsmen play themselves in, get to 50 or 60 and then get out. I was guilty of that myself during my ODI career and despite plenty of chances to get to three figures, I never managed to do so. A set batsman who's in sees the ball so much better than one who is new to the crease and finds it so much easier to score and to do so quickly. The guys at the top of the order who get starts have to go on and convert them, the way that players like Sachin Tendulkar, Ricky Ponting and Mahela Jayawardene have been doing on a consistent basis throughout their careers.

The other area that needs improvement is the variety of the bowling. Varying line and pace is crucial in taking wickets and keeping the run rate down. Once again, it's hardly rocket science but it's not something England have done often enough and well enough and the introduction of Jade Dernbach to the team has been important in this respect. We saw him clean bowl Praveen Kumar with a beautifully disguised slower ball in the T20 match and it's a fantastic weapon to have at your disposal, particularly at the death.

I think this England ODI outfit will improve over the next couple of years and perhaps the man most central to all this is Eoin Morgan. For me he's the best middle-order batsman in the world, bar none. People talk about his temperament and power but for me his greatest asset is that he can score in every single area of the pitch. There are 360 degrees on a cricket field and he gets runs in every single one of them. Bowlers try to vary the areas and angles at which they bowl at him and he'll still improvise a shot that allows him to find a gap where there isn't a fielder. Kevin Pietersen is a wonderful player but most of his runs in ODIs come on the leg side and you defend that area with well-placed fielders you can actually negate his scoring. Not so with Morgan.

Despite all that I'm actually backing Ian Bell to finish as the Series top batsman. With Pietersen rested for these matches Bell will bat at 3 or 4 and will face enough balls to go on and get some really big scores. We saw in the Test series that once he got in, he really cashed in, and I'm hoping he can repeat that in the shorter format. Morgan will probably carry on batting at 5 and whereas he'll probably finish the Series with an incredibly high average, Bell at 6.5 is the man I fancy to score the most runs.

As for the winner, England are an extremely confident selection at 1.76 to win the Series.

4 pts Back England to win the ODI Series @ 1.76
2 pts back Ian Bell to be England top series batsman @ 6.5

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India will want to put that 4-0 scoreline and those dismal performances in the Test series behind them as quickly as possible. A whitewash in a four-match series is rare enough but I can 't remember it ever having happened before to the team that was top of the world rankings! They will be desperate to set the record straight in the limited-overs stuff. Some of the players may be different but this is the same team and MS Dhoni will be reminding his troops that, while they may have lost their number one Test spot, they're still the World Champions in the 50-over game.

First though, there's a T20 match to be played at Old Trafford.

The thing about this England side is that they want to be the very best they can in all formats. Some teams may decide that Test cricket is the one they really want to excel at whereas others may see the longest format as a nuisance, preferring the fast-pace of ODIs and T20s. Andy Flower has been given the task of getting England to excel in all forms - seeing as they're the T20 World Champions and sit at the top of the Test rankings, you have to say that so far he's done a pretty good job.

Saturday's match may give us a first-sighting of a couple of new faces. Ben Stokes got a game the other day against Ireland and it wasn't a particularly happy debut, out for three and no chance to bowl because of an injury. But I know he's very highly-rated up at Durham and I have a feeling the England management have him pencilled in as a long-term candidate for the number six slot in the ODI team - a big-hitter in the middle order who can bowl a few overs for not many runs. Alex Hales of Notts is also highly-rated at the top of the order with an orthodox technique, whilst Jos Buttler is a clean-hitting youngster who is very capable in the field and can also keep wicket. That's a big bonus, particularly during overseas Series and tournaments. If your first-choice wicket-keeper is out for some reason you can always count on someone like Buttler to fill in and you know you'll be in safe hands. Or gloves, as the case may be...

The way the ODI game is going, almost anyone batting in the top seven must be able to clear the ropes on a consistent basis. There's room for one or two 'touch players', who use timing and placement to score their runs, but the others must be powerful guys who can take a bowling attack apart to put pressure on the opposition or score very quickly at the death. That's why guys like Stokes and Butler are fancied by the England management.

Wednesday's match should be quite close. We have Eoin Morgan, Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann on a high after their Test exploits in their favoured conditions, up against Dhoni, Suresh Raina and Virat Kohli, who have all played lots of T20 in the IPL. There are some younger and fresher bodies in this T20 team so at the very least, we'll see some much-improved fielding performances from Dhoni's men.

If it's to be a close match we have to side with the outsiders on value grounds alone so that means backing India at 2.36. Dhoni has seen it all before in this format (and all other formats for that matter) while Stuart Broad is almost completely new to captaincy. The only previous time he was in charge of England, they lost to Sri Lanka.

So it's India for me with Virat Kohli top-scoring. He's a class act who is more suited to the shorter format because he has to face less of the short ball than he would in Test cricket. On what might be a good wicket, he's my pick to cash in.

Recommendations
3 pts Back India to win @ 2.36
1 pt Back Virat Kohli to top-score for India @ 6.0

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It's the second day and England are already out of sight but in a rain shortened Test do the home side have the time to win? Michael Vaughan has an idea.


Betfair customers may make the draw odds-on at 1.47 but I am a confident backer in a fourth and final win for England to round off a Test series they have dominated.

And I see it all happening in classic Test style on the final afternoon of the fifth day at The Oval.

For me, the second day has been a microcosm of the series. England have been positive, while India have disappointed.

Centurions Ian Bell and, in particular, Kevin Pietersen have been exceptional. They have concentrated and played in the bubble, doing what they have to do, with Pietersen getting the team going by playing quick and forcing the pace nicely. A total of around 600 will be the target and if India bat as they have this series - and there's no reason to think they will suddenly improve - then it's advantage England. Again.

India did well this morning, carrying a bit of threat and removing Andrew Strauss, but it's just not a very good attack. I don't see any wickets in the bowling. It's not comparable to the 2007 vintage and, in the case of RP Singh, physically so - he's a different shape to what he was.

If this England bowling attack is as good as the ranking say it is - and India are still yet to score more than 300 in an innings - then you have to risk a few of your hard-earned on the home side again. Jimmy Anderson has been so impressive this summer and, for me, he will be the leading wicket taker in the first innings.

Let's not fool ourselves, the draw might happen, but it's worth backing England. I think England will win again and at the current price it'll provide a profitable end to the summer.


Recommended Bets

Back England to win @ 3.25
Back Day 5 Evening, Test Match End @ 1.37




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England go into the fourth and final Test looking for a series clean sweep. With fortunes unlikely to improve for the beleaguered tourists, Michael Vaughan expects another victory for Andrew Strauss' men.


England were absolutely devastating in their third Test victory over India and, with the fourth Test set to get under way on Thursday, the tourists will be feeling thoroughly demoralised.

England have the momentum, the depth and ability to make it a 4-0 clean sweep series win and, at a generous 2.64, I will certainly be backing them to do so. If the clouds are out above the Oval, which they may be on day one, then the ball could seam and swing but I struggle to see 20 wickets in this Indian attack.

Saying that, I do anticipate a longer game this time. India's batsman have to fire at some point, Dhoni is back in form and this could be the ideal pitch for him to make hay on. It's impossible to say whether Virender Sehwag is in form or not because we only saw him face two balls at Edgbaston. I know who I will be backing to be top Indian batsman this time - the Little Master himself, Sachin Tendulkar. He will be very disappointed if he emerges from this series without a big score and he's more than capable of thriving at the Oval.

The south London pitch is the best place to bat in the country, a batters' paradise. If I was in that England line-up, I'd be dreaming of runs tonight, knowing that at least one of my team was destined for a big innings. It's a lovely track, the perfect place to drive the ball down the ground but, really, all the shots are available to you. With the Indian attack there for the taking, Kevin Pietersen 5.1 and Ian Bell 5.6 registering big scores there in the past and Alastair Cook 4.7 in superb form, it really could be any of English top five who emerges as top batsman.

I'm reluctant to pick anyone out for this bet so I recommend that you back-to-lay Andrew Strauss. Yes, he was hard done by at Edgbaston and yes, I'd be delighted if he scored a ton in this series, but he got out in the third Test playing a daft shot. So, back Strauss at 5.4, watch the odds narrow as he makes his signature solid start and then lay him off when he reaches his 50.

It's been a terrific summer for the world's number one international cricket team and, with everything going for them at present, I can't see beyond another home win. Back them to wrap it up on Day Five - Afternoon at 4.7 in the Test match end market.


Recommended Bets

Back England @ 2.64
Back Day Five - Afternoon @ 4.7 in the Test match end market
Back-to-lay Andrew Strauss @ 5.1 to be Top England First Innings Batsman.


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