mvaughan

Injuries, losing tosses and even Duckworth-Lewis have all consipired against India at one stage or another but a first chance to bat second may finally see them secure a win on this Tour. Or at the very least, come pretty close once again.

Cricket can really be a cruel game at times. And don't India know it. They could easily have been 2-1 up in this series going into the last match at Cardiff but find themselves 3-0 down. First it was injuries to world-class players including Sachin Tendulkar, Virender Sehwag, Yuvraj Singh and Zaheer Khan. Then it was the four tosses in a row that they lost and meant they had to bat first when they're better suited to chasing. And when they did eventually get themselves into winning positions it was first the weather (the first ODI that ended with no result) and then Duckworth-Lewis (4th ODI) that denied them - England needed 11 off seven on Sunday with two-tail enders at the crease (plus Stuart Broad who was injured) and India would have been heavy favourites had the rain not come again.

Still, we can't ignore the fact that their bowling hasn't been up to scratch. In all those matches they ended up setting decent totals and had they performed better with the ball they should have won at least a couple of them irrespective of the bad luck that I mentioned. The spinners have done OK but in the pace department, India have been found wanting. The good news for them is that when these two sides resume hostilities over in India next month pure pace will be less of a factor on those slow wickets, not to mention the fact they'll have some of those star men back after injury.

The big positive for England over this series has been the continued progress made by Jade Dernbach. He was a promising youngster before these matches but has now established himself as a proven performer at this level who can handle the pressure of bowling at the death against top players. I've just said that in India pace will be less important and that variation will be key, particularly in the last few overs, so the Surrey man - with his excellent slower delivery and ability to reverse the old ball - will surely have a big role to play in India next month.

The other big plus was Ravi Bopara's knock on Sunday. It was an innings of great maturity and composure and that may have been the day the penny dropped. He saved England from a losing position and this may be the match that will make Bopara believe he is indeed a match-winner at this level rather than just a flashy all-rounder who plays the odd eye-catching cameo.

I'm expecting a tough wicket at Cardiff where batsmen will really have to grind for their runs. There may also be some movement off the pitch first up so once again, this is a toss that India will be desperate to win. If they do, MS Dhoni will surely elect to bowl first and make the most of any assistance in the wicket as well as give his batsmen a target to chase, which as we've seen already, they haven't yet had the chance to do.

Stuart Broad joins Eoin Morgan on the treatment table and he'll be a big loss for England as he's been one of England's most consistent performers in all formats over the past couple of years. India will be desperate to finally win a match on this Tour and though they'll have their work cut out if they do have to bat first, it's still worth taking a chance that they'll go favourites at some stage. So the bet is to back them pre-match at 2.37 with a view to laying them off at around 1.9 at some stage.

Ian Bell has played well this Series and the pitch at Cardiff should suit him more than some of the other batsmen. There's a danger Bopara can play another blinder but there's also a chance he'll come in a little too late to face enough balls to allow him to post a big score, so Bell is my selection for top England bat at 5.3.

Back-to-lay India @ 2.37
Back Ian Bell to be top England batsman @ 5.3

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