mvaughan

All in all this should be a fascinating series. We know that England are virtually unbeatable in their own conditions where the ball swings and we know they can also be extremely efficient on slightly harder and faster tracks like those they encountered in Australia last winter. But here in the UAE they will be faced with conditions that they don't know well and adapting them to quickly will the latest challenge facing Andrew Strauss' side. And not just against any old team. Not only are Pakistan the most-improved side in Test cricket over the past year or so but they will actually feel like they're playing at home given that most of the cricket they've played over the past two years has been right here, because of the ICC's ban on them hosting international matches on home soil.

Key to Pakistan's success has been the form of Saeed Ajmal, the off-spinner who for so long was seen very much just as an ODI player. But he's taken over from Danish Kaneria as the Test team's main spinner and ended 2011 as the most successful bowler in Test cricket. He's got a huge variety of deliveries and can toil away all day on pitches he knows pretty well by now. I'm also expecting big performances from fast bowler Umar Gul and the evergreen Younus Khan. Every Test team needs a middle-order batsman who focuses primarily on not giving away his wicket in the knowledge that the runs will come naturally. Khan is the man who does that for this team.

As for England, they have two big strengths as far as I can see. The first one is that they've developed a good habit of batsmen going on to score really heavily once they get in. 'Daddy hundreds' I think they're calling them these days! But that's crucial in modern Test cricket and we've seen Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen all do that over the last year or so. And in big matches too. The other great strength in this England team is the variety of the bowling. James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Chris Tremlett, Steve Finn, Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar. Each and every one of them brings something slightly different to the table and means an opposing batsman never feels like they're completely settled at the crease.

A word on Tim Bresnan, who has gone home injured. England will miss him badly. Not exactly one of the most glamorous players in the side but he's a no-nonsense cricketer who brings great balance to the side. He may not necessarily have made the XI for the First Test but he'd be the first man brought in if injuries or a really poor performance from someone were to occur.

We have two-evenly matched teams here and unlike some of England's recent matches, I expect all of them to go into day five, whether they end as draws or we get a result.

What's the bet then? Pakistan look too big at the current 3.65 to win the series. I expect them to come out all guns blazing on day one of the opening Test so whether they bat or bowl first I expect them to be on top after the first day's play. But this is Pakistan we're talking about and we've seen before how heads can drop and confidence can evaporate if a couple of sessions don't go their way. I wouldn't trust them to keep the intensity levels up for a potential fifteen days so they represent a good back-to-lay, rather than showing faith in them till the bitter end.

Back Pakistan @ 3.65 and lay them off at 3.0 in the Series Winner market.

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