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Contrarian Handicapping

Goodwood results/returns.

02 Aug 11 08:51
Back from Camp Bestival with a good tan and an empty wallet. A great festival especially for the kids and the adults even get to have a bit of fun as well !

Results at Goodwood were mixed with the first day producing no returns
but Fridays selections made a small profit and both ran well.
Pintura ran a good 3rd at 18/1 (BOG) and Man Of Action ran a very decent 6th from his car park draw. There should be a good race for him somewhere and although it's a while away the Cambridgeshire might be his cup of tea ?

TOTAL STAKES FOR GOODWOOD 10 POINTS

TOTAL RETURNS 5.5 POINTS PINTURA 3RD AT 18/1 (BOG)

TOTAL LOSS - 4.5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 241 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 226.72 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -14.28 POINTS 
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My bags are packed, well rucksacks,tent etc and will be enjoying the delights of Camp Bestival while there hurtling their way around the Goodwood bends on Friday.
No joy on the first day at all but I've availed myself of the early odds as I'm away, on Pintura and Man Of Action.
Pintura has enough form in the book this year to give a chance and the fact he's gone well round the course before will be in his favour.
Man Of Action was a selection last time where I felt he ran a race of promise and despite being drawn in the car park 33/1 is worth trying to see if Frankie can conjur up a dream run.

PINTURA 1 POINT E/W 16/1 (BOG) PADDY POWER

MAN OF ACTION 1 POINT E/W 33/1 (BOG) VARIOUS

Hopefully these will go better than Tuesday's selections !
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Good evening, off on my hols so just the one day of the festival meeting for me but will be at an even better one later in the week at Lulworth Castle for Camp Bestival Happy with the little man.

In the opener I had the good fortune to pick Drumfire a few years back in this and the jockey that day Jimmy Fortune takes the ride on the previously selected Constant Contact. He ran a fair race last time, has a decent draw and just as important here a good course jockey.

Similar comments apply to the other selection Circumvent with Richard Hughes aboard  who was selected last time as well and has run two races of promise over 8f but is a class 2 winner at this distance and looks ready to put in a big effort. Indeed perhaps this has well been the plan all along.

Later in the day Kajima runs in the 4.50 and can be excused his last run due to the ground and the fact that I picked him !
He again gets the nod on more suitable ground and Richard Hughes aboard from a good draw. He ran well at Doncaster the time before on more suitable ground and this looks a realistic target.

CIRCUMVENT 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)

CONSTANT CONTACT 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

KAJIMA 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)
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Results and returns

24 Jul 11 22:02
A small loss on the weekend but two of the selections went close and The Confessor agonisingly close yesterday to be mowed down late on by Bronze Prince. That was a gutsy try as he had been up there for the whole race and it was a solid effort.
Of the others Very Good Day didn't really do much in 5th on Friday and
is one to mull over.
R Woody finished out the back yesterday which was disappointing as felt he would run a big race. The ground probably went against him ? but the jury is probably still out there.
Swiss Franc who helped out last week came with a strong run late on in the day today but not strong enough although it was a decent effort and he would still be of interest.
Perfect Blossom is not blossoming yet  and may well need to drop a little and have really quick ground to be seen at her best.
Overall close but no cigar and a small loss.

TOTAL STAKES 10 POINTS

RETURNS THE CONFESSOR 4 POINTS 2ND AT 12/1

        SWISS FRANC 3.5 POINTS 3RD AT 10/1

LOSS -2.5 POINTS

OVERALL STAKES 231 POINTS

OVERALL RETURNS 221.22 POINTS

OVERALL LOSS -9.78 POINTS.

I'm on holiday for most of the Goodwood meeting which may or not be a good thing ! so doesn't look like there will be to many posts over the next couple of weeks. Perhaps the break will recharge the batteries a little and help get the blog back into a profit. Overall against stakes the blog is showing a small loss and I've lost count of the number of close calls that have ran 2nd. There's been a few of them ! Still that's how it goes some times and hopefully some of those will start to oblige a bit more soon and turn things around. It's a long haul and I'm hoping the blog will be around for a while yet so here's to patience and belief.   
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Good morning.

Swiss Franc did us a favour last week at Newmarket and turns out again here and has very good form at the track back in the day. Jamie Spencer takes the ride and feel he will try and pounce as late as he can.

Perfect Blossom should be match fit now on her 3rd run and feel she has shown enough in those two runs to show up well today.

SWISS FRANC 1 POINT E/W AT 10/1 (BOG)

PERFECT BLOSSOM 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)
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Good evening.

Two to catch the eye for tomorrow and the first looks a huge price in the shape of R Woody in the dash at York at 25/1 with the sponsors.
R Woody is 2/3 over the trip on g/s and soft and was a fair 7th on his last run of the year at listed level. When on song he looked very good in his wins last year and improved rapidly since joining his new stable.
He infamously won his maiden at Southwell at 100/1 where connections forgot to mention he had been gelded since his last run !

What I found in his races last year was that he had a pattern of running one really good race followed by a poor run and then bouncing back and running another really good race. That pattern produced form figures of 1211. He looks to be doing the same again this year with a opening 0 followed by a solid 3rd at Windsor at this level followed by a 9th most recently although that wasn't to bad. Following the pattern he should run a big race tomorrow. Intrestingly he is entered in the Stewards Cup next week where he is 2/2 at the C/D and a penaly here would help him get in the field. He looks well capable of winning a class 2 race , has won in a 17 runner field and has plenty of scope for more improvement. Hayley Turner takes the ride and feel this has a really strong chance at a huge e/w price.

Over at Ascot Cathy Gannon rides The Confessor in the International, who has form figures of 1153 at the trip, ran a fair 7/28 over 6f last time and is open to plenty of improvement with just 9 starts. The ground will not be a problem and The Confessor has A/W form which is always a + here.He ran really well on his reappearance at Sandown and looks like he can improve on that.

R WOODY 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 SKYBET

THE CONFESSOR 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG FIRST 5) 
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Very Good Day (take two !)

22 Jul 11 11:44
Good morning.

Ascot 3.55

Very Good Day was a selection on his last run in the Old Newton Cup and although not troubling the leaders ran fairly in 11th staying on late in the day. He doesn't look the easiest of rides or he is actually a stayer in disguise. His efforts suggest he might benefit from a big step up in trip and at a huge price I shall keep the faith to find out.
he's dropped a further 3lb since his last run and looks on a fair mark.

VERY GOOD DAY 1 POINT E/W AT 40/1 (STAN JAMES)
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Weekend results/returns

18 Jul 11 10:04
Good morning, a small profit over the weekend from a small batch of runners.
On Friday Colonel Mak ran a good 2nd to Quest For Success and on good or faster ground looks one to look out for next time.
Evens And Odds ran down the field.

Breakheart had the visor put on but despite travelling really well and looking a likely winner he found very little and looks one to take out of the notebook.

On Saturday Circumvent didn't handle the ground as well as had been hoped but did ok in 6th off 10 stone. I feel there could be a decent race in him this year.

Kajima didn't go on the ground but feel he well be worth another chance on better ground.

Swiss Franc managed to oblige in the last which was nice and thought he did well to outbattle the others. He's on a good mark and the win may well help with confidence and feel he can go well again. There were a number of non runners which spoilt the 14/1 but a winners a winner and there always welcome!

TOTAL STAKES 12 POINTS

RETURNS  COLONEL MAK 3.37 POINTS 2ND AT 10/1 (RULE 4)
       
         SWISS FRANC 10.75 POINTS 1ST AT 14/1 (RULE 4)

         TOTAL RETURNS 14.12 POINTS

         TOTAL PROFIT 3.37 POINTS

         OVERALL STAKES 221 POINTS

         OVERALL RETURNS 213.72 POINTS 

         OVERALL LOSS - 7.28 POINTS           

 
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Newmarket 3.10

Circumvent took the eye last time,has won on the course and won't mind any rain I feel.

Kajima was a selection when a n/r at Ascot. he ran a good 3rd last time and despite being the supposed second string I shall keep the faith.

Newmarket 5.20

Swiss Franc was a pick on his last run but things didn't go right.
He looks to be on a good mark and could go well and any rain won't be a problem I feel.

CIRCUMVENT 1 POINT E/W AT 11/1 (BOG)

KAJIMA 1 POINT E/W AT 16/1 (BOG)

SWISS FRANC 1 POINT E/W AT 14/1 (BOG)
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Mister Hughie is a n/r so I shall rely on third rated Evens And Odds to take his place.
He ran a fair 11th in the Wokingham and has a 7lb claimer aboard today which will help off a mark of 102 today. He could at least place at a big price and is up to winning this at his best.

EVENS AND ODDS 1 POINT E/W AT 20/1
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