mastiffs

6.00 3 pt ew Arriva La Diva ....placed @ 50/1 {77.0 BSP} well done there mastiffs,

Thank You Tosh

Well an interesting first day with this system Qadar running quite well in finishing 3rd at 11/1.

Chief Exec ran no sort of race at all and never looked likely to win at any stage.

Arriva La Diva on the other hand ran a cracking race and at one point i thought it may win before finishing 3rd at 50/1.

So overall £30 ew on Qadar returned £96, a profit of £36.
Chief Exec returned a loss of £30.
Arriva La Diva £30 ew returned £405.00, a profit of £345.00.

Total profit on the day £351.00

For day two there is just one runner on his system.

4.55 Lingfield 2pt ew Space Station

One other bet today which is on football. The system suggests there will be at least two goals in the game between West Ham and Blackburn. Just looked at the odds for over 1.5 goals and it is around 1/3 so will place 3 pt win on this outcome.

well day two was a bit disappointing in that Space Station was a non runner. However the football provided a small profit following a 1-1 draw. I placed my bet of £30 at odds of 30/100 making a profit on Day Two of £9.00.

Bank now stands at £1,360.00

Just to explain about this system. The phrase The Wisdom of Crowds was popularised by James Surowiecki. The Wisdom of Crowds is an idea that at first sight seems counter-intuitive: a group of people can have a collective intelligence far greater than the average of its members. In particular a large group of "ordinary" people can be smarter than a small group of specialists. Of course, there may well be individuals who could get better results than the crowd. The problem is that we usually can't identify these individuals in advance, especially since their identity might change from issue to issue.

How can this be? Essentially it's because we all have flaws, preconceptions and blind spots. Put enough people together and statistically these errors are likely to cancel out - the noise is eliminated to leave only the signal.

A well-known example of this crowd wisdom is "Ask the audience" slots in certain quiz shows. The audience often has a surprisingly high success rate even with questions that seem rather obscure. There are problems with this from a statistical viewpoint - for instance, the player is likely to ask the audience quesitions they can be expected to answer - however it does seem to supply good anecdotal evidence.

Of course it's not quite as simple as that. The members of the crowd need at least some familiartity with the relevant universe of discourse. A crowd of random people trying to design a new aircraft would be a disaster!

It's also necessary to ensure that the members of the crowd are reaching truly individual decisions. The "herding instinct" is a big problem as people are liable to make decisions in order to go along with their peer group or to please authority. To be wise a crowd must be diverse, independent and decentralised with their individual opinions aggregated.

Over the past couple of years i have been studying certain sample groups and have finally found a group large enough and accurate enough to produce large profits when applied to betting. I believe this technique has also been used by many successful traders on the stock exchange with excellent results.

Derren Brown claimed to have used Wisdom Of Crowds when apparently predicting the lottery results, however this is extremely unlikely and was almost certainly used to disguise how he really predicted the result.

There are four elements that exist to create a Wise Crowd.

1: Diversity Of Opinion > whereby the person should be arriving at their decision from their own means.

2: Independence > Their opinion should not be determined by others around them.

3: Decentralization > They should be able to specialize and draw on localised knowledge

4: Aggregation > There has to be a way of turning the groups judgement into a collective decision.

I believe I have managed to apply all the above into my sample group.

Roll on Day Three!

An early bet for tomorrow. Again football in the Wolves v West Brom game, at 12 pm, the system suggests at least two goals in this game. Odds around 1/3 for over 1.5 goals and will have a 3pt win on this

Good Morning. Well two races to get involved in today. The first is the 3.45 at Leopardstown and the recommendation here is 2pts ew on Tovaria at present a best priced 14/1 shot. However, there is also a lay in this race. This does not happen very often and the criteria for this is that the horse must be fav on betfair and none of the sample group can have chosen it as their choice of winner. As it is a large sample group, these lays are few and far between. The horse in question is Celtic Dane currently trading at 7/2. Personally i was very surprised that nobody chose this as i thought it had a reasonable chance especially with the rider able to claim a massive 10lb. I did wonder whether it was the jockey (Samantha Bell) that put people off. However my sample group contains a number of females who i would have thought would be unlikely to show any bias towards male jockeys. Anyway my suggestion is a 3pt lay at around 7/2 for a liability of £105.

The second race is the 4.10 Plumpton where the bet is 2pt ew De Welsh Wizard.

Summary for day three:

£30 Wolves v West Brom Over 1.5 goals at 1.3
3.45 Leopardstown 2pts ew Tovaria and 3pt lay Celtic Dane
4.10 Plumpton 2pts ew De Welsh Wizard

Well a slightly disappointing day yesterday despite two wins from four bets. The day started off well with a successful football bet on over 1.5 goals in the Wolves-West Brom game. That was followed by the 3.45 at Leopardstown. The lay was indeed correct with Celtic Dane never really in contention until staying on at one pace to take third place. However Tovaria was very poor and dropped away when the pressure was applied. De Welsh Wizard fared little better in the 4.10. Having led early this one also dropped away tamely in the closing stages.

Overall a loss of 40pts was made on the day.

The bank now stands at £1,320.00

well just one bet on this system today.

3.30 Wolverhampton 3pt win Storm Hawk

What was also interesting was that no one selected Leyte Gulfe as their choice of winner. This however is not a lay as the horse is second fav and not fav, but interesting nonetheless.

well a little unlucky today, Storm Hawk having led well over a furlong out was caught near the finish by one of the outsiders in Profits Reality. So a loss of £30 there. An interesting thing to take from the race though was the performance of Leyte Gulf. As mentioned, none of the sample group selected this as their choice of winner and despite being well supported into 3/1 2nd fav could manage only a well beaten 6th place. Unfortunately i did not lay this one as it did not meet the full criteria of being fav, but interesting for the future. Hope for better luck tomorrow. Bank now stands at £1,290.00

My apologies as there is one more bet today. This features an unusual scenario whereby two horses have dominated the 7.00 Towcester. Under such circumstances the idea is to dutch them.

3pts ew Overton Lad
2pts ew Von Galen

I will also add to this a 1/2 point reverse exacta

Therefore totalling 11 points bet on this race.

These two horses have been selected almost to the exclusion of everything else in the race. Von Galen is certainly interesting as i personally would never have given too much thought to that ones chances so fingers crossed

Well again a slightly dissapointing result to finish with yesterday. Overton Lad ran well but was outpaced when it mattered eventually finishing second, whilst Von Galen led for much of the way before weakening quickly in the home straight. So a loss of 50 pts on the race.

Well today is a big day with three bets this afternoon and also some this evening. There is also the first Maximum Bet today. The rules i have applied to this are that for a wim Maximum bet, everyone in the group must have selected the horse as their winner. For an each way Max, everyone within the group must have included the horse to finish in the first three.

So the bank after yesterday now stands at £1,240.00.
Todays bets are as follows:

Beverley 3.00 3pt win Caranbola. As with yesterday it was interesting to note that none of the group selected Lucky Art as their choice of winner. This one was forecast as Fav in the racing post and still appears to be a very solid 2nd fav at 4/1.

3.10 Warwick 2pt win Make My Dream. I have put this down as win only due to there being only six runners.

3.20 Yarmouth 2pts each way Rough Rock.

The Maximum Bet runs in the 7.30 at Southwell
5pts ew Beau Fighter. All 50 members of the group had this in the first three with the large majority of them selecting it as their winner

And the final bet today is now a non runner would have been lili palmer in the 8.00 Southwell

Interesting day so far. Caranbola ran a pig of a race finishing well beaten despite being quite heavily supported in the betting. Once again though a horse that was second fav (Lucky Art)and was not chosen by any of the group, was well beaten, finishing behind Caranbola in eighth place. So a loss of £30 on that race.

Next came Make My Dream in the 3.10 at Warwick. This one stayed on well to lead inside the final furlong and win at an sp of 5/1 giving a profit of £100 on that race.

In the 3.20 Yarmouth, Rough Rock stayed on well in the closing stages finishing fourth and just failing by a neck to snatch the place money. A loss of £40 on that race.

So far today we are in profit by £30 with tonights Maximum bet to come.

This looks interesting and i shall be following with great interest. Good Luck.