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FlatStats Horse Racing Stats Systems and Ratings
There is nothing more infuriating than finding a nice winner only to see it get beat in a photo (well there is something worse than that: Tommo commentating and shouting out PHOTO!). You spend ages making the case for a horse and put a wedge on it, but then something comes out of the pack and beats it on the line.

The following table ranks courses by their close finish ratio. You can use this information to determine if you should invest in some LCI (Line Chin Insurance). This is where you back your horse to win, but then make an in-play lay on your horse at a low odds-on price. If your horse wins then great! You got a nice price and you only have to pay out a small amount to cover the losing lay. But if the horse runs well and is beaten in a photo you should get your stake back, if not a bit more.

Table Explanation
Short = the number of races at the course where the winning margin was a neck or less
Big = the number races at the course where the winning margin was 3 lengths or more
Ratio = Short / Big

e.g. At York 330 races had a winning margin of a neck or less, and 141 races had a winning margin of 3 lengths or more. This results in Close Finish Ratio of 330/141 = 2.34.

Turf Courses Ranked By Close Finish Ratio
Course Short Big Ratio
York 330 141 2.34
Ascot 321 146 2.20
Ayr 339 162 2.09
Goodwood 339 175 1.94
Warwick 39 21 1.86
Musselburgh 298 172 1.73
Doncaster 423 258 1.64
Thirsk 254 156 1.63
Newbury 333 210 1.59
Redcar 322 204 1.58
Carlisle 195 126 1.55
Windsor 413 267 1.55
Chester 233 151 1.54
Sandown 241 157 1.53
Haydock 382 253 1.51
Beverley 348 233 1.49
Wetherby 34 23 1.48
Ffos Las 105 73 1.44
Nottingham 335 262 1.28
Newmarket 620 491 1.26
Ripon 248 203 1.22
Hamilton 278 230 1.21
Salisbury 242 205 1.18
Chepstow 243 206 1.18
Newcastle 106 90 1.18
Brighton 321 273 1.18
Bath 339 289 1.17
Yarmouth 310 279 1.11
Catterick 257 234 1.10
Epsom 144 134 1.07
Leicester 250 242 1.03
Folkestone 15 15 1.00
Pontefract 220 240 0.92
Lingfield (Turf) 191 233 0.82


Flat turf results from the past 10 years (May 2012-2022) were analysed. Note that all goings were included in the analysis. Some courses may exhibit different figures on different goings.
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