Maria J Mainwaring

There is nothing more infuriating than finding a nice winner only to see it get beat in a photo (well there is something worse than that: Tommo commentating and shouting out PHOTO!). You spend ages making the case for a horse and put a wedge on it, but then something comes out of the pack and beats it on the line.

The following table ranks courses by their close finish ratio. You can use this information to determine if you should invest in some LCI (Line Chin Insurance). This is where you back your horse to win, but then make an in-play lay on your horse at a low odds-on price. If your horse wins then great! You got a nice price and you only have to pay out a small amount to cover the losing lay. But if the horse runs well and is beaten in a photo you should get your stake back, if not a bit more.

Table Explanation
Short = the number of races at the course where the winning margin was a neck or less
Big = the number races at the course where the winning margin was 3 lengths or more
Ratio = Short / Big

e.g. At York 330 races had a winning margin of a neck or less, and 141 races had a winning margin of 3 lengths or more. This results in Close Finish Ratio of 330/141 = 2.34.

Turf Courses Ranked By Close Finish Ratio

Course	Short	Big	Ratio
York	330	141	2.34
Ascot	321	146	2.20
Ayr	339	162	2.09
Goodwood	339	175	1.94
Warwick	39	21	1.86
Musselburgh	298	172	1.73
Doncaster	423	258	1.64
Thirsk	254	156	1.63
Newbury	333	210	1.59
Redcar	322	204	1.58
Carlisle	195	126	1.55
Windsor	413	267	1.55
Chester	233	151	1.54
Sandown	241	157	1.53
Haydock	382	253	1.51
Beverley	348	233	1.49
Wetherby	34	23	1.48
Ffos Las	105	73	1.44
Nottingham	335	262	1.28
Newmarket	620	491	1.26
Ripon	248	203	1.22
Hamilton	278	230	1.21
Salisbury	242	205	1.18
Chepstow	243	206	1.18
Newcastle	106	90	1.18
Brighton	321	273	1.18
Bath	339	289	1.17
Yarmouth	310	279	1.11
Catterick	257	234	1.10
Epsom	144	134	1.07
Leicester	250	242	1.03
Folkestone	15	15	1.00
Pontefract	220	240	0.92
Lingfield (Turf)	191	233	0.82

Flat turf results from the past 10 years (May 2012-2022) were analysed. Note that all goings were included in the analysis. Some courses may exhibit different figures on different goings.

The following favourite stats are extreme! They have very high strike rates, and return a hefty profit.

The stats were uncovered by the FlatStats Archie stats page. These are stats that pass Steve Tilley's Archie test and are deemed to be robust, in that the sample size is sufficient, and that it is unlikely the results are due to chance.

Extreme Trainer Fav Stats
A P O'Brien at Chester: 19/29, 66% strike rate, 73% profit
Sir Mark Prescott in September: 28/49, 57% strike rate, 61% profit

Extreme Jockey Fav Stats
William Buick 5f: 36/61, 59% strike rate, 97% profit
A Kirby in July: 58/110: 53% strike rate, 48% profit

Extreme Sire Fav Stats
New Approach in Novice race: 24/34, 71% strike rate, 56% profit
Galileo at Tight courses: 32/51, 63% strike rate, 63% profit

Extreme Owner Fav Stats
Elite Racing Club in the Summer: 17/26, 65% strike rate, 79% profit
Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum Irish bred horses: 35/66, 53% strike rate, 41% profit

Extreme Breeder Fav Stats
Kirsten Rausing bred horse ridden by Luke Morris: 27/41, 66% strike rate, 57% profit
Ringfort Stud galloping course: 28/52, 54% strike rate, 49% profit

Results for the past ten years up to 4-May-2022. Stats for GB Flat Turf only. All profit figures are based on Betfair SP. The figures at SP are still profitable but there is a big Betfair SP bonus over the SP. Thank heavens for those crazy layers.

The Archie stats page "mines" millions of combinations of stats in seconds and can show you just the very best stats. You can choose to view highly profitable stats for backing, or very unprofitable stats that can be used for laying. e.g. did you know trainer Richard Hughes favourites that won their last time out race have returned a loss of 63%?

View free samples of the Archie Stats page here:

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/archie-stats.php

This table shows sire stats for the Tapeta all weather surface.

Table Key:
Pos = the position in the table
W = Total wins for the sire on Tapeta
R = Total Runs
W% = The Strike Rate
A/E = The A/E Value Stat. A figure greater than 1 means the sire is good value but best with 1.25+ as this should be really good value. Figures less than 1.00 are underachievers with less than 0.75 offering poor value.
£1 = Profit or loss to a level £1 stake at SP
ROI% = The Return on Investment, effectively the profit or loss in percentage terms (£1 Profit / Total Runs * 100%)
Exp = The expected number of wins. Used as a sample size validator. If this is 5+ the sample size is sufficient but ideally it should be 10+ for a more robust sample size
Archie = Steve Tilley's interpretation of the chi squared test. If this is 3+ then it's unlikely the stats observed are due to chance. Ideally this should be 5+ to be more likely that the stats are not due to random events / chance / luck

Table is sorted by the A/E 'Value' stat, with the best value sires at the top and the poor value sires at the bottom. Stats are from January 2012 to January 2022


Sire Stats for Tapeta Surface

Pos	Sire	W	R	W%	A/E	£1	ROI%	Exp	Archie
1	Avonbridge	31	218	14%	1.48	£161	74%	20.9	5.4
2	Frozen Power(IRE)	29	181	16%	1.31	£25	14%	22.2	2.4
3	Amadeus Wolf	17	128	13%	1.30	£67	53%	13.1	1.3
4	Brazen Beau(AUS)	33	199	17%	1.28	£74	37%	25.8	2.3
5	Fastnet Rock(AUS)	50	263	19%	1.26	£67	26%	39.5	3.3
6	Power	26	199	13%	1.26	£89	45%	20.6	1.6
7	Cape Cross(IRE)	98	513	19%	1.23	£130	25%	79.5	5.1
8	Oratorio(IRE)	22	172	13%	1.23	£-7	-4%	17.9	1.0
9	Tamayuz	41	250	16%	1.23	£16	7%	33.4	2.0
10	Gregorian(IRE)	17	123	14%	1.20	£-3	-2%	14.2	0.6
11	Azamour(IRE)	18	117	15%	1.18	£-26	-22%	15.2	0.6
12	Intello(GER)	18	117	15%	1.18	£23	19%	15.3	0.6
13	Baltic King	17	135	13%	1.17	£3	2%	14.5	0.5
14	Arabian Gleam	20	127	16%	1.15	£31	24%	17.3	0.5
15	Toronado(IRE)	28	167	17%	1.12	£47	28%	25.1	0.4
16	Duke Of Marmalade(IRE)	26	161	16%	1.11	£18	11%	23.4	0.3
17	Cityscape	15	135	11%	1.11	£56	42%	13.6	0.2
18	War Command(USA)	16	122	13%	1.10	£30	24%	14.6	0.2
19	Camelot	26	165	16%	1.10	£-22	-13%	23.7	0.3
20	Mukhadram	30	182	16%	1.08	£86	47%	27.8	0.2
21	Choisir(AUS)	18	155	12%	1.08	£-1	-1%	16.7	0.1
22	Delegator	27	231	12%	1.08	£1	1%	25.0	0.2
23	Pastoral Pursuits	55	491	11%	1.06	£-92	-19%	51.8	0.2
24	Lucky Story(USA)	13	130	10%	1.05	£-1	-1%	12.4	0.0
25	Lope De Vega(IRE)	88	506	17%	1.05	£12	2%	83.8	0.2
26	Kingman	45	170	26%	1.05	£-1	-1%	42.9	0.1
27	Swiss Spirit	47	400	12%	1.05	£-56	-14%	44.8	0.1
28	Pivotal	77	501	15%	1.04	£-59	-12%	73.8	0.2
29	Speightstown(USA)	24	130	18%	1.03	£-2	-2%	23.3	0.0
30	Lord Shanakill(USA)	17	151	11%	1.03	£-11	-7%	16.6	0.0
31	Kheleyf(USA)	62	566	11%	1.02	£-142	-25%	60.6	0.0
32	Major Cadeaux	15	152	10%	1.02	£-16	-11%	14.7	0.0
33	Verglas(IRE)	15	132	11%	1.02	£-59	-45%	14.7	0.0
34	Heeraat(IRE)	25	274	9%	1.02	£-26	-9%	24.6	0.0
35	Raven's Pass(USA)	47	330	14%	1.01	£-13	-4%	46.4	0.0
36	Mount Nelson	26	216	12%	1.01	£-44	-20%	25.7	0.0
37	Firebreak	16	180	9%	1.01	£-55	-31%	15.8	0.0
38	Elusive Quality(USA)	23	164	14%	1.01	£-29	-18%	22.8	0.0
39	Red Clubs(IRE)	21	173	12%	1.01	£-36	-21%	20.9	0.0
40	Dylan Thomas(IRE)	18	158	11%	1.00	£-20	-13%	17.9	0.0
41	Due Diligence(USA)	17	134	13%	0.99	£-21	-15%	17.1	0.0
42	Requinto(IRE)	18	170	11%	0.98	£6	4%	18.4	0.0
43	Intikhab(USA)	21	155	14%	0.98	£-9	-6%	21.5	0.0
44	Footstepsinthesand	61	491	12%	0.97	£-57	-12%	62.8	0.1
45	Multiplex	28	265	11%	0.97	£-93	-35%	28.9	0.0
46	War Front(USA)	25	141	18%	0.97	£-29	-20%	25.8	0.0
47	Twilight Son	17	149	11%	0.97	£-46	-31%	17.6	0.0
48	Paco Boy(IRE)	31	324	10%	0.97	£-44	-14%	32.1	0.0
49	Medicean	37	327	11%	0.96	£-82	-25%	38.3	0.1
50	Thewayyouare(USA)	19	159	12%	0.96	£-21	-13%	19.7	0.0
51	Harbour Watch(IRE)	33	319	10%	0.96	£-1	-0%	34.5	0.1
52	Cable Bay(IRE)	21	171	12%	0.95	£-36	-21%	22.1	0.1
53	Garswood	14	133	11%	0.95	£19	14%	14.8	0.1
54	Street Cry(IRE)	39	299	13%	0.94	£19	6%	41.4	0.2
55	Golden Horn	27	121	22%	0.94	£-23	-19%	28.7	0.1
56	Sleeping Indian	25	279	9%	0.93	£3	1%	26.9	0.1
57	Bated Breath	56	494	11%	0.93	£-145	-29%	60.2	0.3
58	Sakhee's Secret	33	353	9%	0.92	£-47	-13%	35.7	0.2
59	Dragon Pulse(IRE)	34	254	13%	0.92	£-109	-43%	36.9	0.3
60	Poet's Voice	59	535	11%	0.92	£-2	-0%	64.0	0.5
61	Kyllachy	90	813	11%	0.92	£-23	-3%	98.2	0.8
62	Iffraaj	104	819	13%	0.92	£-67	-8%	100+	0.9
63	Dalakhani(IRE)	22	180	12%	0.91	£39	22%	24.2	0.2
64	Helmet(AUS)	51	499	10%	0.91	£-118	-24%	56.3	0.6
65	Elzaam(AUS)	22	212	10%	0.91	£-37	-17%	24.3	0.2
66	Dansili	60	424	14%	0.90	£-84	-20%	66.4	0.7
67	Mastercraftsman(IRE)	55	513	11%	0.90	£-112	-22%	61.1	0.7
68	Kitten's Joy(USA)	17	109	16%	0.90	£-49	-45%	19.0	0.2
69	Frankel	40	204	20%	0.90	£-83	-41%	44.7	0.6
70	Aqlaam	35	308	11%	0.89	£-58	-19%	39.2	0.5
71	Exceed And Excel(AUS)	140	1167	12%	0.89	£-119	-10%	100+	2.1
72	Zoffany(IRE)	57	549	10%	0.89	£-12	-2%	64.0	0.9
73	Outstrip	13	154	8%	0.89	£-25	-16%	14.7	0.2
74	Shamardal(USA)	74	456	16%	0.89	£-165	-36%	83.5	1.3
75	Invincible Spirit(IRE)	111	821	14%	0.89	£-242	-30%	100+	1.9
76	Dandy Man(IRE)	97	890	11%	0.89	£116	13%	100+	1.6
77	Champs Elysees	52	444	12%	0.88	£-108	-24%	58.8	0.9
78	Hot Streak(IRE)	13	130	10%	0.88	£34	26%	14.7	0.2
79	Elnadim(USA)	20	199	10%	0.88	£-8	-4%	22.7	0.3
80	Sea The Stars(IRE)	58	284	20%	0.88	£-47	-16%	65.8	1.2
81	Nathaniel(IRE)	36	273	13%	0.88	£-68	-25%	40.9	0.7
82	Captain Gerrard(IRE)	32	406	8%	0.88	£-149	-37%	36.4	0.6
83	Rail Link	18	183	10%	0.87	£77	42%	20.7	0.4
84	Sepoy(AUS)	43	393	11%	0.87	£-58	-15%	49.5	1.0
85	Dubawi(IRE)	84	390	22%	0.86	£-130	-33%	97.6	2.5
86	Rip Van Winkle(IRE)	32	256	13%	0.86	£-33	-13%	37.3	0.9
87	Zebedee	63	633	10%	0.86	£-100	-16%	73.4	1.7
88	Authorized(IRE)	14	138	10%	0.86	£-8	-5%	16.3	0.4
89	Dutch Art	72	627	11%	0.86	£-99	-16%	84.0	2.0
90	Epaulette(AUS)	21	216	10%	0.86	£-77	-36%	24.5	0.6
91	Gutaifan(IRE)	17	190	9%	0.86	£-87	-46%	19.8	0.5
92	Misu Bond(IRE)	9	128	7%	0.86	£-48	-38%	10.5	0.2
93	Intense Focus(USA)	21	212	10%	0.85	£-106	-50%	24.6	0.6
94	Arcano(IRE)	51	422	12%	0.85	£-146	-35%	59.7	1.5
95	Slade Power(IRE)	19	175	11%	0.85	£-50	-28%	22.3	0.6
96	Tagula(IRE)	16	194	8%	0.85	£-2	-1%	18.8	0.5
97	Orientor	17	169	10%	0.85	£-63	-37%	20.1	0.5
98	Archipenko(USA)	28	277	10%	0.84	£-80	-29%	33.2	0.9
99	Makfi	24	223	11%	0.84	£-17	-8%	28.5	0.8
100	Fast Company(IRE)	49	534	9%	0.84	£-199	-37%	58.3	1.6
101	Foxwedge(AUS)	27	264	10%	0.84	£-49	-19%	32.2	1.0
102	Bushranger(IRE)	33	401	8%	0.84	£-94	-23%	39.5	1.2
103	Havana Gold(IRE)	32	341	9%	0.83	£-132	-39%	38.6	1.3
104	Danehill Dancer(IRE)	14	148	9%	0.83	£-39	-26%	16.9	0.6
105	Oasis Dream	79	718	11%	0.83	£-175	-24%	95.5	3.3
106	New Approach(IRE)	53	397	13%	0.83	£-138	-35%	64.1	2.3
107	Dark Angel(IRE)	130	1041	12%	0.82	£-314	-30%	100+	5.9
108	Muhaarar	17	153	11%	0.82	£-16	-10%	20.7	0.8
109	Cockney Rebel(IRE)	13	147	9%	0.82	£-65	-44%	15.9	0.6
110	Roderic O'Connor(IRE)	18	158	11%	0.81	£-8	-5%	22.2	0.9
111	Starspangledbanner(AUS)	21	194	11%	0.81	£-43	-22%	25.9	1.1
112	Mayson	44	415	11%	0.81	£-115	-28%	54.4	2.3
113	Teofilo(IRE)	46	370	12%	0.81	£-133	-36%	56.9	2.5
114	Declaration of War(USA)	20	139	14%	0.81	£-40	-29%	24.8	1.1
115	Australia	17	137	12%	0.80	£-31	-23%	21.2	1.0
116	Acclamation	107	1063	10%	0.80	£-225	-21%	100+	6.4
117	Camacho	50	598	8%	0.80	£-255	-43%	62.8	2.9
118	Charm Spirit(IRE)	17	156	11%	0.79	£-51	-33%	21.4	1.1
119	Approve(IRE)	23	256	9%	0.79	£-7	-3%	29.3	1.5
120	Aussie Rules(USA)	20	250	8%	0.78	£-74	-30%	25.5	1.3
121	Sir Percy	52	450	12%	0.78	£-190	-42%	66.5	3.7
122	Sir Prancealot(IRE)	23	263	9%	0.78	£-47	-18%	29.6	1.6
123	Elusive City(USA)	18	186	10%	0.77	£-68	-37%	23.3	1.4
124	Byron	9	125	7%	0.77	£-41	-33%	11.8	0.7
125	Siyouni(FR)	27	199	14%	0.76	£-55	-28%	35.5	2.5
126	Big Bad Bob(IRE)	19	238	8%	0.76	£-125	-53%	25.1	1.6
127	Piccolo	25	394	6%	0.76	£-198	-50%	33.0	2.1
128	Casamento(IRE)	21	283	7%	0.75	£-67	-24%	28.0	1.9
129	Holy Roman Emperor(IRE)	45	500	9%	0.75	£-179	-36%	59.9	4.2
130	Kodiac	138	1497	9%	0.75	£-568	-38%	100+	13.5
131	Bertolini(USA)	7	115	6%	0.75	£-44	-38%	9.4	0.7
132	Captain Rio	15	194	8%	0.74	£-52	-27%	20.2	1.5
133	Excelebration(IRE)	15	178	8%	0.74	£-38	-21%	20.3	1.6
134	Lilbourne Lad(IRE)	19	263	7%	0.74	£-96	-36%	25.8	2.0
135	High Chaparral(IRE)	24	219	11%	0.74	£-69	-32%	32.6	2.7
136	Lawman(FR)	39	464	8%	0.73	£-179	-39%	53.7	4.5
137	Halling(USA)	13	152	9%	0.73	£-66	-44%	17.9	1.5
138	Society Rock(IRE)	24	260	9%	0.72	£-115	-44%	33.2	2.9
139	Vale Of York(IRE)	12	164	7%	0.72	£-56	-34%	16.7	1.4
140	Canford Cliffs(IRE)	37	421	9%	0.72	£-158	-38%	51.7	4.7
141	Mehmas(IRE)	21	179	12%	0.71	£-47	-26%	29.5	2.9
142	Galileo(IRE)	21	224	9%	0.70	£-87	-39%	30.0	3.1
143	Lethal Force(IRE)	32	391	8%	0.70	£-149	-38%	45.8	4.7
144	Excellent Art	20	240	8%	0.70	£-84	-35%	28.7	3.0
145	Clodovil(IRE)	26	327	8%	0.70	£-202	-62%	37.4	3.9
146	Hellvelyn	7	141	5%	0.69	£20	15%	10.1	1.0
147	Henrythenavigator(USA)	19	250	8%	0.68	£-101	-41%	28.0	3.3
148	Coach House(IRE)	14	279	5%	0.67	£-192	-69%	20.9	2.5
149	Monsieur Bond(IRE)	39	601	6%	0.67	£-311	-52%	58.4	7.1
150	Gleneagles(IRE)	13	134	10%	0.67	£-61	-46%	19.5	2.5
151	Equiano(FR)	54	759	7%	0.66	£-391	-52%	81.7	10.6
152	Showcasing	52	712	7%	0.64	£-272	-38%	80.6	11.5
153	Bahamian Bounty	27	405	7%	0.64	£-121	-30%	42.3	6.2
154	Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE)	20	271	7%	0.64	£-170	-63%	31.5	4.7
155	Nayef(USA)	12	169	7%	0.62	£-103	-61%	19.2	3.1
156	No Nay Never(USA)	13	148	9%	0.62	£-79	-53%	21.0	3.5
157	Fountain Of Youth(IRE)	6	127	5%	0.61	£-88	-69%	9.8	1.6
158	Dawn Approach(IRE)	14	190	7%	0.60	£-75	-40%	23.2	4.1
159	Royal Applause	28	498	6%	0.60	£-256	-51%	46.4	8.1
160	Born To Sea(IRE)	9	176	5%	0.60	£-96	-54%	15.1	2.7
161	Haafhd	9	164	5%	0.59	£-117	-72%	15.3	2.9
162	Bungle Inthejungle	10	157	6%	0.58	£-82	-52%	17.2	3.4
163	Compton Place	25	427	6%	0.57	£-219	-51%	43.5	8.8
164	Stimulation(IRE)	9	188	5%	0.56	£-80	-42%	16.0	3.3
165	Dream Ahead(USA)	20	295	7%	0.56	£-182	-62%	35.8	8.0
166	Assertive	9	187	5%	0.50	£-91	-49%	17.9	4.9
167	Sixties Icon	10	254	4%	0.46	£-163	-64%	21.8	7.0
168	Manduro(GER)	6	133	5%	0.42	£-98	-74%	14.2	5.3
169	Adaay(IRE)	5	131	4%	0.41	£-94	-72%	12.3	4.8
170	Alhebayeb(IRE)	5	120	4%	0.39	£-82	-68%	12.8	5.3
171	Dick Turpin(IRE)	5	137	4%	0.39	£-65	-47%	12.9	5.4
172	Myboycharlie(IRE)	4	113	4%	0.34	£-83	-74%	11.8	5.8