LeeDixon

Spurs are going through something of a mini-crisis at the moment. They lost back-to-back matches in the league which not only meant their title challenge is now well and truly over, it also means that for the first time in months and months they're actually looking over their shoulder to see how Arsenal are doing. That third place isn't safe just yet.

Ironically they played a lot better in the first-half against Manchester United despite going into the break 1-0 down than they did in going 2-0 up against Arsenal. They'll feel better about life after their midweek win against Stevenage but even then, they weren't particularly convincing.

Everton are playing to type at the moment. Organised, hard-working, disciplined, hard to beat. And I don't think there's a huge amount in it between these two teams when we consider the Toffees have home advantage. But they might just have half an eye on their trip to Anfield in midweek and do have a pretty ordinary record against Tottenham. Opta tell us Tottenham have beaten Everton 19 times in Premier League history, more often than they have overcome any other team apart from Man City (also 19) and that Spurs have only lost on three of 19 visits to Goodison Park in the Premier League era.

So I think a draw is the most likely result but if there was to be a winner, it's more likely to be Harry Redknapp's side. I'm laying Everton at 3.0.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

If we were just looking at Spurs' matches, the temptation would be to reach for the over 2.5 goals button. Their last three league games read as follows: Newcastle (won 5-0), Arsenal (lost 5-2) and Manchester United (lost 3-1).

But Arsenal and Manchester United are always high-scorers and it's just Everton's way to be involved in low-scoring games. Taking their last 10 matches in the two competitions they're still in - Premier League and FA Cup - nine of them ended with under 2.5 goals. That's some trend and I think it will continue.

To Score

Emmanuel Adebayor hasn't been in quite the same goalscoring form as he was earlier in the campaign but every time I've watched him play, at least he's looked like scoring. He's been finding space, making good runs, getting on the end of crosses and has had chances to score. He seems to have taken over penalty duties from Rafael van der Vaart as well and that's a bonus for us, seeing as we're backing him to score at 2.9.

2pts Lay Everton @ 3.0.
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9
1 pt Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ 2.9

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In between the devil and the deep blue sea. In between a rock and a hard place. That's the situation in which Arsene Wenger finds himself going into the second leg of this Champions League knock-out match. Arsenal were destroyed 4-0 in the first leg in Milan and, if they were to find a way of progressing, I suspect they might consider re-naming the Emirates Stadium the Arsene Wenger Stadium because it would go down as one of the biggest turnarounds in European football history. But before we get too ahead of ourselves, let's remember the Betfair market makes the Gunners 34.0 to progress and that price is actually considerably shorter than what it was; they were matched at 50.0 to go through in the aftermath of the first leg and have been shortened on the back of those two fine domestic wins against Spurs and Liverpool .

The dilemma Wenger has is whether to play his best team in this game. If he does and they somehow go through he'll be hailed a genius. If he does and they win but still don't go through he'll be praised for keeping the team's winning streak going, which is a good thing in terms of morale and motivation with plenty still to play for in the Premier League. On the other hand, if he does and they lose at home or worse still, a couple of key players get injured, he'd be slated for it. Imagine if Robin van Persie was one of them. What about if he plays a weakened team? He'll get criticised for not giving it a go having come this far and accused of a lack of ambition. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes over the next 24 hours.

But reading between the lines in terms of what he's said since the Liverpool win I suspect he'll play pretty much his best team, with the exception of any players who are carrying a knock. As Arsene said himself, when asked about starting van Persie: "I would not be very credible to tell you that we want to score five goals and that I will leave Robin van Persie out."

And if he does go for it by picking his strongest side, there's no reason why they can't win the game, if not the tie. Especially considering the names who have been ruled out for AC Milan: Kevin-Prince Boateng, Clarence Seedorf, Pato, Maxi Lopez (all injured) and Massimo Ambrosini (suspended).

As the away team in a game like this, your first priority is to keep things tight and to go into the break without conceding. But Milan will have an eye on an away goal, which really would kill the tie for once and for all. And I think they'll get it. Arsenal aren't the greatest at defending at the best of times and they'll be even more exposed than usual with the pressing need for goals themselves. Given that and the fact Milan put a 'mere' four past them at home, backing both teams to score is the even better bet than the Arsenal win.

3 pts Back both teams to score @ 1.7
2 pts Back Arsenal to win @ 2.16

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

So who will be the next permanent Chelsea manager? Your guess is as good as mine.

What I mean is that it's not easy to try to second guess what Roman Abramovich will do next. But let's try anyway. I don't think he'll take the gamble of going for another young, up-and-coming manager because of how that turned out with Andre Villa-Boas. Of course that worked with Jose Mourinho but without wishing to further inflate the ego of the Real Madrid boss, Mourinho really is a bit special. So it will probably be a wise old head and it will have to be someone who isn't afraid to take on Abramovich and say "Look, I'm the manager. You appointed me to run the football team so let me get on with the job of doing that. If you want to do it yourself just say, pay up my contract and I'll see you later". Which of course is exactly the sort of thing Jose Mourinho would say. And mean it.

Mourinho could well end up coming back to Stamford Bridge. In the crazy world of football I certainly wouldn't rule it out. Because the other problem the next Chelsea manager has is to gain the respect and support of the senior players. The names who have been mentioned in the Press as the ones who never got behind Villas-Boas. And ultimately got him sacked. John Terry, Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba and a couple of others. All players who played their best football under Mourinho and who would walk on hot coals if he asked them to.

But it's also possible that when Abramovich allegedly told the players there would be wholesale changes at the end of the season and that everyone was playing for their futures from now on, he was also including those same senior players. As with everything else going on at the moment, we can only guess what's on Abramovich's mind.

The other obvious candidate is Pep Guardiola. There's no doubting his achievements as a manager, not to mention the fact it's easier for players to respect him because of the wonderful player he was himself. And behind the mild-mannered demeanour there's a man who believes in himself enough to question authority if he feels he's being unfairly treated. Whether he thinks he's got unfinished business at Barcelona or is looking for a new challenge, only he knows. I'd be surprised if Abramovich hasn't already tried to find out.

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

What a week it's been for these two giants of English football.

Liverpool won the first piece of silverware of the new Kenny Dalglish era after holding their nerve during the Carling Cup penalty shootout while five-star Arsenal destroyed Spurs to rise above Chelsea into fourth spot in the Premier League.

It sets up a fine opener to a big weekend in England's top division.

Match Odds

I was at The Emirates on Sunday and the Arsenal fans were nervous before the game. For the first 25 minutes or so it seemed their worries were justified as a disaster appeared to unfold before our eyes. But the Gunners showed incredible spirit to bounce back and putting five goals past Brad Friedel was like something out of a dream. Any result like that is a huge confidence boost but the defence still worries me. The back four were dragged around at times by Spurs and I hope that, between the internationals, they were able to work on it as they look vulnerable.

Liverpool weren't totally convincing against Cardiff but a trophy is a trophy and Kenny will not let the players get carried away by last Sunday's result. It probably helps that, in Arsenal, his side face a rival for a Champions League place. That will focus the mind nicely and it should be a great game.

I'm a bit worried about jumping on the Arsenal bandwagon after such an eye-catching result, especially bearing in mind that Liverpool are the home side, but I think there may mileage in laying the Merseyside outfit at close to even money. Arsene Wenger's men were unbeaten in the Premier League in February while Anfield's finest could suffer a psychological hangover after their Wembley exertions.

And we'll leave the final word to Opta - six of the last nine Premier League games between these two have ended as draws.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

While the Arsenal defence concerns me, I don't think there will be many goals in this one. Liverpool have generally found scoring tough in the league and the personnel in the Arsenal defence are better than the collective performs. They simply have to get better. A final score of 1-1 seems about right and I think unders is the play here at around even money.

Halftime Result

I'd be very surprised if this one matched up to last weekend's drama and I can see a bit of value about the half-time draw at Anfield, with a more attritional battle predicted.

Recommended Bets
2pts Lay Liverpool @ 2.06
2pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.04
2pts Back Half-time Draw @ 2.4

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Friendly matches are often the most derided of international fixtures with pullouts aplenty resulting in occasional apathy from media and fans alike.

Wednesday night's game against Holland has not had the most promising build-up with an interim manager leading an inexperienced team and fans not yet aware of who will lead the Three Lions.

But for Stuart Pearce, Danny Welbeck and Scott Parker - among others - this game must be viewed as a huge opportunity to cement more permanent roles with the national team. For the players there's no better thing than being in the England squad and when an opportunity presents itself you must grab it.

It could be argued that Pearce is in a no-lose position - Holland are one of the finest teams on the planet, World Cup finalists in 2010 and one of the first teams in the Euro 2012 hat after qualifying with an almost perfect record. There would be absolutely no shame losing to Bert van Marwijk's outfit, but beat them and, well, Stuart will have made a very strong case for taking the job full-time.

I'm not sure they will, however. It's a huge ask to defeat such a strong team after such a short preparation period, but it will be fascinating to watch Pearce's Three Lions go about their business.


Match Odds

At international level it's all about testing yourself against the best teams. It's a great thrill when you're standing in the tunnel and you look across at the badge of Germany, Holland, Italy or one of the big powers of world football in opposition.

And few managers will be able to transmit that desire to beat the other XI than Pearce.
He was my captain when I was in the England squad and the Psycho tag was fully justified! He was a brilliant player to have in your team, as others feared and respected him. He's undoubtedly mellowed a bit as a manager but I'm pretty sure that he will dig out a look in the dressing room that speaks 1,000 words. The team that represents England will know how important this fixture is.

But, as I said, it's so hard to oppose Holland here, especially at the current price of 2.68. Await news on the lineups before striking your bets, but if it's the first team for the visitors then get behind the Dutchmen.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

England's backline is hugely inexperienced and I'm surprised to see Over 2.5 goals as long as 2.32. Ashley Cole excepted, no-one has more than 14 caps and players like Chris Smalling and Phil Jones are real international novices. I rate them all as individual performers but they will be up against a proven attacking force, a team which scored 39 goals in Euro 2012 qualification. Overs looks a standout bet.


To Score

Every time I see Robin van Persie play he looks a no-brainer goalscorer bet and I have to get behind him on Wednesday night against an all-Premier League international defence. Theo Walcott had a confidence booster against Spurs on Sunday and should enjoy the wide open spaces of Wembley. If he plays he would rate a bet to score, as would Daniel Sturridge.


Recommended Bets

1pt Back Holland to win @ 2.68
2pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.32
2pts Back Robin van Persie to score @ 2.7 if he starts
1pt Back Walcott to score @ 4.6 if he starts
1pt Back Sturridge to score @ 3.5 if he starts


For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

I've written elsewhere that this is arguably the most important north London derby of Arsene Wenger's time at Arsenal. Others have had league titles at stake and they've all had bragging rights at stake. But this time it's almost Arsene's job that could be at stake.

Being out of both domestic Cups, the Premier League title race and now almost certainly the Champions League is bad enough. But if they were to lose at home to Tottenham to cap it all off, it's not too far-fetched to think that could be the point at which the fans finally turn on their manager in numbers.

Match Odds

This really is one of those games where you could make a case for all three outcomes. Spurs are the in-form side, high on confidence and won this fixture at White Hart Lane earlier in the campaign. If we're looking for a potential match-winner in Harry Redknapp's team we could list quite a few names: Rafael van der Vaart and Emmanuel Adebayor (though both are doubtful for the game at the time of writing), Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, even Louis Saha. But if we look at Arsenal's team, it's pretty much only Robin van Persie who you'd expect to take the game by the scruff of the neck and win it for his side. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has impressed over the past month but it's asking a lot of a youngster to come in and play a blinder in his first north London derby. And therein lies part of the problem for the Gunners.

But Arsenal are the home team and at this moment in time will see this as the biggest match they have left to play this season. That's the message Arsene will be sending his players and if they can't get fired up for this one, they never will.

A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now.

It's the biggest price of the three and at 3.6 the stalemate is where my money will be.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals (1.74) is my strongest selection of the match. Opta tell us Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 32 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so I think it's safe to assume one here is pretty much out of the question. The two games last season ended 3-2 and 3-3 and at White Hart Lane in October it was 2-1 so recent results also suggest we'll get goals.

From a tactical point of view, there's also the fact that both these teams are at their best when being positive and sending men forward. Momentum will shift throughout the game and there will be times when it's Arsenal playing on the break and times when it's Spurs. Either way, goals are very much on the cards.

To Score

Robin van Persie has served us well as a goalscorer bet in this column throughout the season but, that hat-trick against Blackburn aside, he hasn't looked quite as dangerous as he did a few weeks back. That said, I wouldn't really want to nominate anyone else in the Arsenal team!

With doubts over the fitness of Adebayor and van der Vaart I'm going with Gareth Bale, who has netted three times against Arsenal, his joint-highest tally against any opponent in the Premier League (along with Wigan). He's been given almost a free role in recent times and should have at least a couple of good chances to grab a goal.

Bookings Odds

Going low on bookings proved a shrew bet when Manchester United hosted Liverpool a couple of weeks ago.

No-one wanted to make the Luis Suarez situation any worse by doing something stupid and passionate though the game was, there wasn't too much by the way of indiscipline. At least not during the ninety minutes!

But I do fancy at least five bookings (or three and a red) here. I don't think we'll see ridiculously dangerous tackles or anything but there's pace on both sides and that's a recipe for the odd trip or pull of the shirt to break down an attack. At 1.65 that's my final bet of the game.


2 pts Back the draw @ 3.6
3 pts Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.74
1 pt back Gareth Bale to score @ 4.5
2 pts Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ 1.65

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Having made light work of defending champions FC Porto in the Europa League on Wednesday, Manchester City turn their attentions back to the Premier League in the late kick-off on Saturday. With all due respect to Blackburn, a home tie against them is just the sort of match that they'd want after a two-week absence from league commitments.

City will look at this match and their approach will be something along the lines of "Right, that's three points in the bag. Who's up next?". Some will say that borders on complacency, others will say it's arrogance but if you take the view that you're a champion team, you've got to have that sort of self-belief.

I don't think they'll have too many problems disposing of Blackburn but let's try and find some good value bets that reflect City's dominance.

City Clean Sheet/Correct Score

If you think Blackburn are capable of making lightning strike twice and adding City's scalp to that of Manchester United's, consider these Opta stats. City have lost none of their last eight Premier League games against Blackburn (W5 D3 L0), winning four of the last five and have earned 64 points from the last 66 available on home soil and won the last 17 in a row at the Etihad Stadium. Pretty dramatic stuff!

And if just stats aren't enough to convince you, it's worth taking a look at the two squads. Blackburn have worked really hard to make the most of limited resources and also had to make do without some of their best players who have been out with injuries. Having been rock bottom at several stages of the season, they're temporarily out of the bottom three. But City have an embarrassment of riches available to them and this is probably the real 'banker' of the weekend.

I'm not going to tip up City at just 1.2 and picking a correct score isn't too easy either because City really could go goal-crazy here so any number of scores are possible. But with Yakubu back in the Blackburn line-up after suspension and scoring on his return a couple of weeks ago, I think the visitors have a decent chance of grabbing one against a City defence that may just be a tad jaded after Wednesday's match. So I'm going to lay a City clean sheet at 1.98 and pick 3-1 as a correct score with the intention of trading out the 11.5 if it reaches 3.0 or less.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

I've mentioned City's almost unlimited options (particularly upfront), the gulf in class between the two sides and also the threat of Yakubu for Blackburn. And if we're being honest, it's not a lack of scoring goals that's been Blackburn's problem, it's been keeping them out. So all in all I can't see anything other than a high-scoring match so over 3.5 goals at 2.02 must be included in our portfolio.

To Score

Roberto Mancini may decide that this is the sort of match where he can give Sergio Aguero a breather after playing on Wednesday.

But I think the more likely scenario is that the City boss starts with his best XI and then takes off a few of the key players with the game sewn up. If City are going to score a few, it's a good bet Aguero (1.8) will be amongst them.

1 pt Lay a Manchester City clean sheet @ 1.98
1 pt Back 3-1 @ 11.5
2 pts Back over 3.5 goals @ 2.02
1pt Back Sergio Aguero to score @ 1.8

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Manchester United showed all their fighting spirit in coming from 3-0 down against Chelsea to earn a point. Who knows how significant it might become the end of the season? And whereas Sir Alex Ferguson could have been tempted to lambast his team for going 3-0 down against a side who is consistently under-performing, he'll be focusing on the positives instead, telling his players how it's comebacks like that which win you Premier League titles.

When I was at Arsenal and we scored with late goals people used to say we were lucky. It's lucky if it happens once or twice. When you're consistently doing it it's because you're the team that has the belief that you can still get something from the game and the fitness to keep going. We did and so does this current United side.

Next up are Liverpool and a chance for Sir Alex and his old foe Kenny Dalglish to resume hostilities.

Match Odds

A good case could be made for a Liverpool win. Maybe not based on what they produced against Tottenham, where they didn't really create too many clear-cut chances but rather in terms of their recent performances against United. Opta tell us that Liverpool have won four of the last seven Premier League games against Manchester United overall and also beat the Red Devils two weeks ago in the FA Cup.

But a Liverpool win doesn't seem likely to me. Opta also tell us that United have won 29 and lost just two of their last 33 Premier League home games so it's take something outstanding to go to Old Trafford and come back with all three points.

But I do think Dalglish's boys are good for a draw. They've defended well recently -apart from the shocker at Bolton - and don't have many injuries or suspensions to deal with at the moment. With confidence high after knocking United out of the FA Cup I believe they can get a point and I think they'll see that as a really good afternoon's work.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

I've talked about Liverpool defending well at the moment and that bodes well for under 2.5 goals backers. This may also be one of those matches that ends up being a game of cat and mouse with both sides waiting for the other team to make the one mistake that would cost them the game. I thought Manchester United's trip to Stamford Bridge would be low-scoring and it ended up being a goal-filled cliff hanger but I don't think lightning will strike twice. 1-1 looks a good call on the correct score market at 8.0 but for those already on the draw, the 1.96 on a more straightforward under 2.5 goals bet looks a decent bet.

To Score

Sometimes in football you can just predict how things are going to pan out. I told anyone who would listen a few weeks ago that Thierry Henry would score the winner after coming off the bench against Leeds in the FA Cup. It was just meant to be.

This could be another of those occasions. Luis Suarez makes his first start after an eight-game ban against the team he was facing when he committed the offence that got him banned. Will he make the the most of it by scoring against them? I think it's meant to be and worth backing.

Bookings Odds

It's easy to assume the cards will be coming out left, right and centre in this match. Suarez will be up against Patrice Evra and the players on both sides will feel somewhat obliged to be that little bit keener to make a tackle than they normally would to send out the message that they supported their team-mate all along in this whole affair.

But then again, things might just not pan out that way. The managers may order their players to keep a cool head and the referee may decide to keep the cards in his pocket in the early stages to avoid letting things get out of hand. I may regret this very early on in the match but I think it might pay to go against the crowd and lay 9 points and above at a very short-looking 1.4.

2 pts Back the draw at 3.75
1 pt Back 1-1 at 8.0
3 pts Back under 2.5 goals at 1.96
2 pts Back Luis Suarez to score at 3.2
1pt Lay 9 points and above in the bookings odds market at 1.4

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

We'll have to wait and see whether Harry Redknapp takes the England job or not. For all we know, he doesn't want it at this moment in time. But all the speculation about it won't be doing him or Tottenham any good at the moment when they have an in-form Newcastle making the trip to White Hart Lane.

Match Odds

Tottenham's match away at Liverpool wasn't exactly a classic but Redknapp will have seen it as a good point earned at a ground where the home side very seldom gets beaten. This match is a different story though and the Spurs boss will be seeing it as one that he really needs to win if his side are to stay in the title race.

The Betfair market makes them 1.53 to do just that but I'm not so sure about that price. Newcastle may be missing Cheick Tiote (international duty), Johan Cabaye (suspension) and probably Ryan Taylor as well for this match (injury) but they've done well in their absences and, in Demba Ba, they have their star and talisman back and in-form, not to mention his mate Papiss Cisse. More on him later. Opta tell us that Spurs have won only two of their last 10 games against Newcastle but on the other hand they've lost just one of their last 29 home matches in the league.

All these factors mean the draw has appeal at 4.6 but I actually prefer the lay of Spurs. I wouldn't be that surprised if Newcastle actually won the match so I'd rather cover that eventuality too.

Both Teams to score

The over/under 2.5 goals market looks a tough one to call. My preference would just about be for over 2.5 goals but then again 1-1 is a lively runner ahead of this match, too. Confused? Let me try and explain and find the better bet then. We'll leave the 1-1 alone because that scoreline would already be a winner with our lay of Spurs and instead back 'yes' on the 'both teams to score' market. Newcastle have some serious firepower with that duo I've already mentioned and I'd be absolutely amazed if Spurs don't get at least one playing at home. So that looks the call at 1.9.

To Score

It always takes time to adapt when you start playing in a new league but one of the advantages of being new to it are that opposing players may not know so much about you. Papiss Cisse is a good example of that. Premier League defenders probably won't have seen much of him so far given he hasn't featured in the Champions League and didn't really catch the eye at the African Cup of Nations. It's one thing having a plan of how to mark a Robin van Persie or a Darren Bent whose games you're so familiar with, even if they end up scoring anyway, it's another to have a plan for one whose strengths and weaknesses you don't know so much about.

Cisse looked good last Sunday, coming short to receive the ball, moving well when not in possession of it and scoring a cracking goal. I was watching the game with former England international Dion Dublin who said that his gangly running style and the way he controls the ball and shoots reminded him of Nwankwo Kanu. I can see where he's coming from and if he ends up being as good as my former Arsenal team-mate then Newcastle have some player on their hands. Demba Ba is the one with the amazing scoring record - 16 goals in his last 16 matches in the league - but my money is on Cisse to get a goal for Newcastle on Saturday.

2 pts Lay Spurs @ 1.53
3 pts Back both teams to score @1.9
Back Papiss Cisse to score @ 4.2

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Before a ball had been kicked in anger, many were predicting that it would be Liverpool who would improve significantly on last year's finish (sixth) and that Spurs would probably finish in a very similar position to last year's fifth. But here we are, almost exactly two thirds into the season and it's Tottenham who have made all the progress, sitting pretty in third, not yet out of the title race and looking good for a Champions League place at the very least. As for Liverpool, they've had a strange sort of season. Steven Gerrard has been out injured for most of it; they lost the grossly under-rated Lucas to injury; Andy Carroll has spent most of the time on the bench; and other big money signings like Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson are yet to find their best form. They've beaten the big guns in both Cup competitions as well as in the league, yet found it hard to beat the seemingly easier teams, more often than not, at home.

A win here for either side would be a huge boost, no doubt about that.

Match Odds

One of the keys to this match will be how much Gareth Bale sees of the ball. If he receives it in space and has a chance to run at defenders at pace, Liverpool could be in all sorts of trouble. Goals, crosses, cards, penalties, they all come into the equation. Bale is often accused of not performing often enough: looking brilliant one day and mediocre the next. But every time I've seen him play live this season he's been very impressive. Not quite good enough to have got my vote for Player Of The Season - the Betfair market has got that one right with David Silva very much the front-runner - but pretty good nonetheless.

This is a really tough match to call. A case could be made for Liverpool given that they were excellent away at Wolves in midweek and very professional in knocking Manchester United out of the FA Cup the weekend before last. The fact that they're one of only two sides who are unbeaten at home in the league seems to suggest they're very unlikely to get beat here.

As for Spurs, well I've touched already on the fact that they've been much the better team this campaign and got a monkey off their backs when a comfortable 2-0 win at Anfield last season ended a run of 16 Premier League away games at Liverpool without a victory (Opta). They've also lost just twice in their last ten away matches so the stats support the premise that losing here would be going against the grain.

We profited from backing the draw in Chelsea v Manchester United because we felt that the away side was the better team but that home advantage would provide a good leveller for Chelsea. I'm not sure many would have imagined the match would have panned out the way it did but the reasoning behind the bet was right and we should take the same approach again here. Back the stalemate at 3.55.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

One of the ongoing debates this season has been around what Liverpool's best XI is. Glenn Johnson, Daniel Agger, Martin Skrtel and Jose Enrique would be my defenders. Lucas has been sorely missed because Liverpool don't really have anyone with those exact same characteristics in their squad but Steven Gerrard's return gives them some proper steel in the heart of midfield. I like Craig Bellamy out wide and even though he's been a little inconsistent, I think Charlie Adam's range of passing makes him an automatic choice, too. Luis Suarez is their best attacking player and his return from suspension is massive to Liverpool. But beyond that it's hard to say who should play and where and perhaps therein lies one of Liverpool's problems.

I think they'll go 4-4-2 here tonight and I'm not expecting a repeat of yesterday with the floodgates opening in terms of goals. Spurs' defence is somewhat under-rated and they don't concede many themselves so unders is quite a confident selection at 1.99. Those who are already on the draw may not want to double up on 1-1 at 7.8 but that would be my idea of the most likely scoreline.

First Goalscorer

Only Kenny Dalglish knows whether he intends to hand Luis Suarez a start tonight. But whether he does or doesn't, I think Andy Carroll may well keep his place in the team. In truth he hasn't made the best of his chance whilst the Uruguyan has been out suspended but he did score away at Wolves and that may have just been the goal he needed to get his confidence back. It's not my strongest bet of the night but if he does start, a quote of 10.0 about him may look pretty big once the game is under way.

2 pts Back the draw at 3.55
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.98
1 pt Back 1-1 at 7.8
1 pt Back Andy Carroll to be first goalscorer at 10.0

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/