LeeDixon

It's been a disappointing few days for Roberto Mancini's Manchester City. Four points from two away matches would probably have been considered a decent return but instead they managed just a single point courtesy of that draw at West Brom. The defeat at Sunderland can be considered a bit of a freak occurrence; let's not forget the Black Cats were matched in-play on Betfair at odds of 420.0 given they scored with what was virtually the last kick of the game. But the worrying thing for Roberto Mancini is that they failed to score in both those games. Liverpool aren't exactly known for charitable defending so this may not be the best match for City to get back on track.

Match Odds

It was no coincidence that with Sergio Aguero and, in particular, David Silva on the bench, City didn't create too many chances at the Stadium of Light.

For all the superb finishing of Aguero, mercurial talents of Mario Balotelli and raw power of Yaya Toure, it's the diminutive Spaniard who really makes things tick for City. Without him, they lacked a cutting edge and someone to deliver that killer final ball. But the Christmas period is always the busiest of the year and no-one can play every match. Or if you do, that's going to catch up with you later on in the season. Arsene Wenger was the best I've ever seen at knowing when you were tired. He used to tell me a couple of weeks before I started to actually feel tired that I looked a little jaded. Amazing quality.

We'll have to wait and see whether Mancini has that same quality because knowing how best to rotate your squad is a key skill in a modern-day manager.

There's no doubt that all the big guns will be out for this match but I'm not sure that will be enough to get City back to winning ways. Liverpool went away to both Chelsea and Arsenal and won so they clearly relish playing the big teams and, if anything, actually perform to a better level when the stakes are high.

Opta reveal the quite remarkable statistic that City have won just one of their last 13 matches against Liverpool so three points here really would be a case of going against the grain. Four of the last six have ended as draws and all things considered, that's probably where this one is heading too.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I've spoken before in previews for Betting.Betfair that the key reason why Liverpool aren't higher up the table is that they simply don't score enough goals. On the other hand, they don't concede many either. Craig Bellamy was superb against Newcastle and he tends to perform in bursts where he's excellent for a few matches and then goes a bit quiet. The number of clubs he's been at throughout his career suggests he doesn't always deliver in line with the potential he has and I'll be interested to see if he starts against City, one of his former clubs. If he does, he could be a real handful.

City have found scoring a bit of a problem recently and given this ended 1-1 when they met a couple of months ago, I think we're going to get another low-scoring match so 'unders' is the call.

First Goalscorer

No prizes for originality but hey, we're trying to make money here! Sergio Aguero was left out of the starting line-up against Sunderland and brought on at half-time when Mancini didn't like the way things were going. At least he'll be fresh for tonight's match and he's my pick to open the scoring at around 6.2.

Bookings Odds

There were five bookings when these two met in late November, six if you include Mario Balotelli's second yellow which led to a red. It's not that I necessarily think there's bad blood between these two teams but this has all the makings of a fiercely contested match. I don't think the card count will go through the roof but we should get at least nine points.

2 pts Back the draw @ 3.6
3 pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.88
1 pt Back Sergio Aguero to be first goalscorer @ 6.2
2 pts Back nine points or above in bookings odds market @ 1.8

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