LeeDixon

I hope that all the talk ahead of the match doesn't revolve around Luis Suarez, who seems to be making headlines for all the wrong reasons at the minute. I'd rather that people are discussing the players who are going to take to the pitch rather than those who aren't. I suspect that won't be the case though.


Match Odds

Having just said the above, I can't help but mention Suarez's suspension myself! But only to make the point that Liverpool's odds have drifted from around 1.42 to their current price of 1.65 purely on the back of the news that the Uruguayan sits this one out as a result of that 'incident' at Fulham a few weeks ago. As things stand, he'll be spending far more time on the sidelines than on the pitch over the next couple of months.

That's bad news for Liverpool. They may be dropping far too many points at the moment and not scoring nearly enough goals but Suarez is at the heart of everything they're doing well in forward areas. Still, they do have Steven Gerrard almost back to full fitness and they need their skipper on the pitch at a time when things aren't going their way. Not just because of what he gives you in terms of passing, tackling and goals but also because of the spirit and leadership he brings to the side.

As for Newcastle, the collapse predicted by many simply hasn't come. They began the season with a team work ethic that saw them united, organised and playing good football. They built this on a back line that didn't change for the first nine or ten matches. Add to this some solid tackling from the likes of Cheick Tiote and Demba Ba`s goals and you have a successful team. The problems were going to come with injuries. That has happened but they're still doing well. Cynics may argue that beating Bolton doesn't exactly warrant a standing ovation but any away win in the Premier League is hard to come by. Just ask Manchester City after their goalless draw at West Brom.

Liverpool's price may have drifted but even at the bigger 1.65 I don't fancy backing them to win this match. Opta tell us Liverpool are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games at Anfield, but have drawn five of the last six. My money is on that last stat quickly becoming six of the last seven.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Kenny Dalglish will be tearing his hair out at Liverpool's inability to score more than a goal a game. Let's not forget the Liverpool boss was one of the finest strikers ever to play on these shores and very rarely found goals hard to come by himself. Their task is made even harder by the absence of 'you-know-who'. Add to that the fact that Liverpool have actually defended very well in recent weeks and we simply must back under 2.5 goals at 1.92.


First Goalscorer

Assuming Dirk Kuyt isn't employed as a striker over the next month or so, Andy Carroll is about to get an extended run in the team. And that's exactly what he needs. It allows him to relax a little in the knowledge he will be playing the next game whatever happens. With strikers this normally relaxes the body and technique becomes second nature. Then a couple of goals later and all is forgotten. Loss of form? What loss of form?

Liverpool may have to employ slightly different tactics here because Carroll is such a different player to Suarez in terms of his strengths. But assuming he gets some decent service, especially if it's from wide areas, this could be the match that he gets back amongst the goals. I'm backing him to open the scoring at 6.5.


Recommended Bets

2 pts Back the draw @ 4.0
2 Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.92
1 pt Back Andy Carroll to be first goalscorer @ 6.5


For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/