LeeDixon

Is Stoke's reputation as a formidable home team warranted? They've won four at the Britannia Stadium, drawn two and lost two in the Premier League this season so perhaps it's not the fortress that some make out. Mind you, I was correct to predict that Tottenham's winning run would end there a fortnight ago and it remains true that few teams relish a trip to the Potteries.

That certainly applies to Aston Villa, a team who, despite giving an improved performance against Arsenal, have little to cheer this Christmas. Stoke fans make the most noise and the Britannia's fearsome reputation will give the home side a psychological advantage. That can count for a lot, especially when things are going against you, as they are for Alex McLeish's men. Villa sit 12th in the table, at that crucial juncture where a couple of wins can catapult you into the top half and a couple of defeats can send you sliding towards trouble.


Match Odds

Tony Pulis watched his team surrender pretty meekly against Manchester City in midweek. But the Potters have done him proud in the Europa League this term, eighth is a comfortable position for them in the league and all is to play for in the second half of the season. Their aerial threat has been well-documented, from throw-ins, but also from corners, so the glaring stat for anyone betting on this match is that Villa have conceded more goals from set-pieces than any other team in the top flight. Gabriel Agbonlahor played 90 minutes on his return against Arsenal and he will be key for Villa as they bid to turn their form around. He's always a threat on the break but the way that Stoke play - with a flat back four, throwing few men forward - means they can nullify him. I'm backing the home victory.


Over 2.5 Goals

That's not to say I think Stoke will keep a clean sheet. They've conceded five in their last three home league fixtures, including three against Queens Park Rangers. Villa look blunt up front but even bottom club Blackburn managed a goal at the Britannia so the hosts are hardly impenetrable. They can do the business at the other end though, and with over 2.5 goals backers having collected in four of Stoke's last five in the league, I'm backing it.


To score

Jon Walters has scored notched more goals than Peter Crouch this season while building an effective partnership with the big man. Like Villa's Emile Heskey, strikers often say that they love playing alongside Crouch and Walters is no exception. He hasn't scored for over a month but he's worth backing to get back on the goal trail here.

Recommended Bets

2pts Back Stoke @ 1.98
2pts Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.06
1pt Back Jonathan Walters to score


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