LeeDixon

Match Odds

What a remarkable game of football that was on Saturday lunch-time. A 5-3 win away at a side who prior to this season had a fierce reputation as one of the best defensive outfits in Europe and one who started this season as one of just three teams genuinely tipped as Premier League contenders.

But in a way it didn't tell us anything about Arsenal we didn't already know. Before kick-off we were well aware that they can beat anyone on their day, we know Robin van Persie is one of the best finishers in the game and we know they simply can't defend, which is why they still conceded three despite winning the match.

There are three big reasons why I'm backing the Gunners to win this match. The first is that if Arsenal started their domestic season slowly, Marseille started it at snail's pace. Joint favourites before a ball was kicked in anger, they're an incredible 14 points off top spot, occupied by PSG. The second is that Arsene Wenger's men were not only winners a fortnight ago in France, they were deserved winners, even if they did need a late goal to clinch it. And thirdly, don't underestimate the confidence boost that win at Stamford Bridge will have given the side. Arsene may be keeping the defenders back at the end of training for some extra work this week but secretly he'll be over the moon he got the win and the players will be feeling this team is somewhere like back to its best.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

I wouldn't back my old team to keep a clean sheet with borrowed money at the minute. But I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see them go on and score three against anyone either. That partnership between van Persie and Gervinho seems to be flourishing and we once again got a glimpse of what Theo Walcott can do on his day. Consistency has been a problem for the former Southampton man and there will be those who carry on questioning why he hasn't progressed as much as what was expected of him after being at Arsenal for a while now. But we also know that when he's hot, he's unstoppable, and at the moment he looks comfortable with his game.

Marseille scored away at Olympiakos and put three past Borussia Dortmund at home. On this evidence and given what we've said about the Gunners' back four we have to assume they'll get at least one. Over 2.5 goals looks a very safe bet at 1.9 but I'd rather back over 3.5 goals at 3.35 and consider laying off my stake if the price hits around 1.8.

To Score

The van Persie dilemma. Start him and drastically improve the team's chances of winning the match or save him to avoid fatigue or a possible injury at a time when he's the team's outstanding player? He'll probably start but just for once I'm looking elsewhere for Arsenal's scorers.

Gervinho is due. He's been energetic and looked dangerous since returning from that suspension after being sent off at St James Park on the opening day of the season. But he hasn't been scoring too many. It's credit to him that he gave van Persie the easiest of finishes for Arsenal's first goal rather than going alone but maybe this time he'll go for goal if he's in that sort of position again. He knows Marseille's defence well from his time in Ligue 1 and I fancy him to get on the scoresheet again.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain hasn't had too many chances to show what he can do but we've seen enough of him to see why Wenger bought him. There may be a rare place for him in the starting XI and would look a good bet at around 4.5 if he does play from the beginning. If he starts on the bench it may still be worth backing him at around 8.0 as his pace may give Marseille's defenders plenty of problems as fatigue starts to kick in.

3 pts Back Arsenal to win @ 1.67
2 pts Back-to-lay Over 3.5 goals @ 3.35
Back Gervinho to score @ 2.8
Back Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to score at 4.0 if he starts or at 8.0 if he's named as a substitute.

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