LeeDixon

Match Odds

Every time I preview a Newcastle match I go on about what a fantastic start to the season they've made. And then I have to come back the following week and say it again because they've gone another week unbeaten in the league!

The Magpies' home form has been extremely good and in that man Demba Ba they've found a super striker capable of converting chances created by the likes of Jonas Gutierrez, Johan Cabaye and set-piece specialist Ryan Taylor.

The thing is, Stoke away remain a different proposition to anything else they'll face this season. It's no secret what the gameplan is in front of that rowdy crowd. Meaty challenges, long throw-ins, plenty of crosses and no end of commitment. I almost think Newcastle would have preferred to play one of the sides at the top of the table. The likes of Manchester City or Chelsea play good, neat football just like Newcastle try to do and would fancy their chances of outplaying over 90 minutes if they made a good start.

Opta tells us that Newcastle have won none of the four Premier League meetings with Stoke, losing two and drawing two. That obviously suggests a win for the visitors is unlikely.

And I can't help but think this unbeaten run has to end sometime and that Stoke are just the team to finally make them taste defeat. Laying Newcastle is the safe option but backing Stoke is the better one.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Opta tell us The Potters have conceded just five goals in their last 10 league games at the Britannia, keeping five clean sheets and not conceding more than one in a game. They're not really the sort of side to go ballistic and score three or four of their own either, even at home. There's only one way to play this one.

Half-Time

It's been a characteristic of both these sides to play their way into matches rather than attack too soon and the first half may well be spent in a tough midfield battle. I've said I expect Stoke to win this eventually but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the scores level at the break.

First Goalscorer

It's a safe bet that a Stoke goal will come from a set piece. Opta tell us 71% of them this season have. Who to get it then? A case could be made for a number of players, including the two centre-halves. But I'm going to show faith in the forgotten man of the England team - Peter Crouch. He'll certainly start and has looked like he's settled in nicely and will no doubt be the main goal threat.

Recommended Bets
3 pts Back Stoke to win @ 2.18
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.72
2 pts Back the half-time draw @ 2.1
1pt Back Peter Crouch to be first goalscorer at 6.6

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