LeeDixon

Manchester City v Everton, Etihad Stadium, Saturday 12:45 (Sky Sports 2)

How do you explain an Opta stat like this one: Everton have won seven and lost one of their last eight Premier League games against Man City and the last four in a row?

That's the sort of form you'd expect from Manchester United against a side forever threatened with relegation whilst United were winning the league virtually every year. Sometimes football throws up these slightly bizarre facts and though I'm forced to respect Everton's record away at City, I can't begin to explain it.

If City end up not winning the league and it's by just a couple of points difference, they could well end up looking at that 2-2 draw at Craven Cottage last Sunday as a match they really should have won. There's no disgrace in dropping points against a team with a good home record like Fulham but teams challenging for the Premier League title can't be giving away two goal leads against anyone. That draw will have been a bitter pill for Roberto Mancini to swallow but in a way it was a bit of a wake-up call that teams aren't going to go up against his star-studded team and just lay down and die.

Match Odds

I think Roberto Mancini is finally getting to the stage where he knows what his best XI is. There's been plenty of consistency in terms of the players he's picked in the Premier League and that one Champions League match whilst we saw a very different set of players figure in the Carling Cup win. One thing is for sure: this squad is rich enough to undertake a proper assault on several competitions.

The same can't be said of Everton, who didn't buy a single player over the summer and look to have one of the thinnest squads at Goodison Park that I can remember. A real case of the 'haves' against the 'have nots' here.

I like a telling stat as much as the next man but on this occasion I'm going to ignore the numbers and just take the view that the Manchester City class of 2011 is a far better one than that which lost to Everton time and time again over the last eight years.

I don't think this will be as easy as some of their other home wins this campaign but City are the call for me. It's a short price though so maybe more of a 'banker' for the Betfair Multiple.

Over 2.5 Goals/Correct Score

For all of City's endless embarrassment of riches upfront, their defence has often lacked concentration and made silly mistakes. Yes, they kept clean sheets at home to Swansea and Wigan in the league but they also conceded two against both Bolton and Fulham (as we've just seen), as well as against Tottenham, a match they won easily. This current Everton side may lack the star names that City can boast but in players like Tim Cahill, Leon Osman and Marouane Fellaini there are some experienced players who have been in this team for a while and can pose City's defence some problems. The home side's potent attack and porous defence leads us to a back of over 2.5 goals at 1.74.

Taking this rationale a little further and a much bigger price, it may also be worth taking a punt on 3-1 at 13.5.

To Score

It's the obvious bet but don't let that alone put you off. Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in his first five Premier League appearances, matching the record of Mick Quinn for Coventry. He's taken to this league like a duck to water and is in the form of his life. Even money is an extremely fair price for him to get on the scoresheet again.

Recommended Bets
2 pts Back Manchester City to win @ 1.46
3 pts Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.74
1 pt Back 3-1 to Manchester City @ 13.5
3 pts Back Sergio Aguero to score at anytime @ 2.0

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