Jinxy1

The first trade today is on a horse that so far has drifted like a barge in the betting markets but with the Mick Easterby team being in half decent form then I think he is worth persevering with today. Another reason for the drift could be that Mr Optimistic has a fair weight pull and was unlucky in running behind Thirteen Silvers last time out. Thirteen Silvers won quite well in a big field at York last time out, the three year old looks to be on an upward curve and I hope he continues that today. Opened up at 5/2 in places this morning and has drifted out to 6/1 at the books and to over 8 on betfair which seems a reasonable price to me. This season he has traded to odds on in all three of his races, in his last ten races he has been available to trade 8 times, the twice he didnt trade was with the same jockey (not todays). The extra weight may or may not stop him winning today but it shouldnt stop him being able to be there or thereabouts at the business end of the race allowing his price to drop sufficiently for a trade.

Backed at 8.8 for 2 pts meaning that a lay off in running of 5.2 is needed to a stake of 3.35 pts to give us an all green screen of 1.3pts.
Alternatively a lay off price in running of 5.8 to a stake of 3.05 pts would give an all green screen to the value of 1 pt.

Broadband problems today so apologies if this doesnt find its way to twitter.

2/2 successful trades today, both horses hitting the lower price to give 1.3 points profit each, 2.6 pts up on the day.

Since being upped it trip he has a fairly good record, winning two of his races, the gelding has form on the course, has won on the going and has won for this jockey. A good winner last time out Vetvey in the 8.30 at Beverley has a six pound rise to contend with tonight which is fair enough for his Redcar victory last time out. He has been available to trade in all five of his races since upped to 7f/8f and the extra weight may not stop him leading long enough to see the price drop enough to allow us a trade in this three year old handicap. You can never tell by the market how well Johnstons horses are going to fayre in a race so should their be a late drift then so be it. Backed at 4.7 for 2 pts to lay off at 2.8 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts to a 3.35 pt stake or lay off at 3.1 to a stake of 3.05 pts for an all green screen to the value of 1 point. 

In the 7.00 at Beverley tonight Sharakti seems to be well fancied trading around the 4.7 mark, however if you look further down the market to a horse by the name of Saint Thomas then we fin a horse who has finished in front of Sharakti in three of their last four meetings and has a pull in the weights with that rival as well. The  is in better form than then it must be said but the discrepancy in odds gives me reason to think that Saint Thomas is a horse who may well give us a trade this evening.

In his last fourteen races Saint Thomas has been available to trade on all fourteen occasions, add that to his record of 2 wins from four course visits and the appeal of as trade looks even more appetising. Lee Topliss takes off a useful 5lb to boot. Both his wins have been on tonight's good to firm. Normally ridden from a prominent position I think he should still be in contention at the business end of the race and see his price drop suitably enough to give us a trade.

Backed at 9.8 for two points means that I need a lay off price in running of 5.9 to 3.05 points for an all green screen to the vale of 1.3 points or a lay off price of 6.4 for an all green screen to the value of 1 full point.

A nice easy day with all three trades reaching low enough marks in running to achieve a 1.3 pt profit, 3.9 pts profit on the day.

In the 7.45 at Huntingdon I'm aiming to get a trade from a horse that has shortened up in running in his last 20 chases, lets hope he makes it 21 tonight. Good Old Days is the name of the horse and he is slowly coming down in the weights and gets in off a handy mark of 96 tonight. He is not fool proof and comes with risks attached, three times in that run of 20 he has failed to complete, unseating rider once and pulled up twice all due to his sketchy jumping, it must be said though that on all three of those occasions he still traded, the one time he didn't complete for this jockey was in 2008 and unseated when in contention at the last. Not bomb proof but could be worth the effort in my opinion. Backed at 8.5 leaves me needing a lay off price in running at an average of 5 for an all green profit of 1.3 points if matched. A one point all green profit would need a lay off price of 5.5. As I am putting this up, you can still get 7/1 at the books in four places which is slightly better than the exchanges at the moment.

Nine before ten is a big price at 20 at Ripon, third race of the season coming up and the filly should be fully wound up for this one, to date she has had six runs on turf and two on polytrack in those eight races she has been available to trade on all eight occasions, she is a winner over the distance for today's jockey, normally leads and running from 2lb below her original handicap should see her go well enough today to give us a trade today. Backed at 20 for 2 pts to lay off at an average of 12 in running for  3.05 fpr an all green profit of 1.3 pts or lay off for 3 pts at 13 for an all green profit of 1 pt.

Ripon is a lovely Yorkshire course and I hope we can get a couple of trades there today, the first one goes in the 3.10 race where I think that the twice raced Mark Johnston horse Taqaat will go well enough to give us a trade. After a gentle debut on the all weather at Wolverhampton he improved for that as mosy Hohnston horses do and won a maiden at Beverley in decent fashion, he led from almost the start that day and I hope he does so again today. He's been given a fair handicap mark of 79 and given that he started life in a nine furlong race I think there will be further improvement expected in him for the step up to ten furlongs today. 5/1 (6.0) at Corals this morning, 6.4 here was good enough for me leaving a lay off price in running of an average of around the 3.8 mark for an all green profit of 1.3 pts, thats for 2pts win and 4.25pts lay, or lay off at 3.95 for an all green scren of 1 pt that is to 2pts win and 3.05 pts lay. 

In the 8.00 race at Thirsk I have a fancy that we can eek a trade out of a horse who should be spot on now after his seasonal debut, Pertemps Network I hope will give us a trade tonight, this is his optimum flat distance I think and he will appreciate the ground more so and should give a decent account of himself tonight. He has been available to trade in his last nine flat races, he can go from the front if need be and is easy to back at the moment at 9.4 leaving us needing a lay off price of 6.1 for an all green screen to the value of one point. or if you want to be bolder a lay off price of 5.5 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points.

Todays card at Carlisle looks like going ahead after an inspection due to the high winds in that area at the moment, rain has changed the going and its now on the soft side which I think will enable us to get a trade from Senate Majority in the 5.30 race whose only win to date came over this distance on Southwell's fibresand. Today's jockey David Allen was riding that day and I hope he employs similar tactics today as Carlisle is a great course for front runners/prominently ridden horses.

This doesnt look as good a race as the one he contested at Ripon last time when given a bumpy ride he stayed on very well finishing fourth that day, back to six furlongs seems a natural step for the four year old and having traded in each of his last five races since and including that Southwell win I think he should do so again. Klynch and Berbice his nearest market rivals are both prone to dwelling at the start which could help our cause.  Backed at 5 leaves us needing an average lay off price in running of around the 3 mark for an all green profit of 1.3 pts or you could lay off at 3.3 for an all green screen to the value of 1point.