Jinxy1

This one was put else where this morning


09.05   Three year olds get a cracking weight allowance from their elders and at this time of year they are always worth looking at, even more so over the 12 furlongs that is the Group Two Prince of Wales Stakes the 3.00 at Newmarket. At a big price I think its worth chancing a back to lay on the Mark Johnston trained Dordogne. The colt gets upwards of 10lbs from its elders and that should put him right in the mix this afternoon. The distance will be no problem having won the Lingfield Derby Trial last time and three wins from three attempts on good to firm along with a trading record of five from five in races varying from maidens to Group, SDS in the saddle and I'm sure that will give us a great shout of a trade here. Back at 13.5 means that we need an in running lay off price of 8 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points.

2 pts win at 13.5
3.35 pts lay at 8



Now its available at 17 leaving an in running lay off price of [b]10 for 1.3 pts or lay off at 11 for a one point all green. Sometimes it pays to wait,[/b]

In the next at Newmarket a horse that I think is a huge price and may well be worth taking a chance on to trade for us this afternoon is Barry Hills trained Fadhaa.  He caught a tartar in Brown Panther at Chester but was only beaten a neck by the Royal Ascot winner and following that he was caught out at Salisbury on ground far too soft for him. The ground today is not perfect but is better than it was at Salisbury and at a huge price he is worth a shout. Backed at 36 leaves an in running lay off price of 21 for an all green profit of 1.3 (if he trades but loses) or 2.85 points (if he wins).

With the rain arriving at Newmarket and an ease in the going to the soft side of good then it may be worthwhile sticking with a Royal Ascot winner in Federick Engels to trade in the 1.50. Only beaten by Shamoosh and fellow Ascot winner Bapak Chinta. A winner on this sort of going when going away from the opposition suggests that he will have no problem with the extra furlong day, it may even suit him better than many think. Backed at 3.3 leaves a lay off price in running of around the 2 mark for an all green screen of 1.3 points or lay off at 2.2 for an all green to the value of 1 point.

Its not the first time that I've used that headline in recent weeks. In the 7.50 at Kempton tonight I'm hoping that for the fourth time in a row we can get a trade out of the Rod Millman trained Money Money Money, in his last ten races he has traded no less than nine times, all under today's jockey. This is his stiffest task for a while being up anther 5lb makes his task harder it may not stop him running well enough to trade. A big drifter this has seen him trade to 14 and and more. Backed at 14 leaves an in running trade of 8.4 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 points or lay off at 9.2 for a 1 point all green. Normal stakes of 2pts win and either 3.35 or 3.05 pts lay off.

In the next race a Catterick a mare who is enjoying the warmer summer weather and has managed to trade in eight of her last ten races is Rosewin, the two she didn't trade in, one was too short a race and in the other she was never in with a realistic chance going off at 70 in the betfair market. Second to a well treated sort last time and a ready winner over this sort of distance before that over this course and distance. Backed at 6.8 needing an in running lay off price of around the 3.95 mark for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts profit or lay off at 4.1 for an all green profit of 1 point.

A front runner at Catterick is always of interest, backed Cheylesmore at 4 to lay off at 2.4 for a 1.3 pt all green profit.

In June there were a total of 40 trades, including a 100% strike rate at the Royal meeting, of which 35 were successful and 5 unsuccessful giving us an excellent figure of 36.5 points profit for the month. The figures are as follows.

35 Successful Trades giving 46.5 points profit.
5 Unsuccessful Trades losing us 10 points.

Total 36.5 points profit. Or £3,650 all net of commission to our normal stakes.

A breakdown shows that nine of the 40 selections went on to win at prices of 5.5, 10.0, 7.2, 8.6, 6.2, 6.4, 5.7, 6.8, and 4.5. These are for info only as once the prices are matched it doesnt really mater whether they win or not, unless of course you adjust your stakes to leave a little bonus when the horse does pass the post first.

22 of the selections finished placed at odds of. 3.1, 2.4, 1.91, 3.98, 2.9, 1.79, 5.09, 2.78, 3.25, 1.86, 3.01, 3.32, 2.04, 2.14, 2.55, 1.61, 1.91, 2.2, 1.48, 1.86. 1.53 and 2.9.

4/4 yesterday for the trades and I had another seven from seven away from the blog for my best day ever, at the stakes that I play at that worked out at a very nice profit.

The end of month stats for June will be put up later today.

In the 7.25 at Epsom a speedy sort who has a big pull in the weight with Collect art is a horse called Another Try, he normally trades in his races and has his ideal conditions today even though he is carrying a penalty for dead heating last time out. Backed at 18.5 needs a lay off in running of 11.0 for an all green screen to the value of 1.3 pts or lay off at 12 for an all green screen to the value of 1 pt, all to our normal stakes.

Maoi Chinn Tire was a winner at huge odds when he won a hurdle at Wetherby back in October over hurdles, paid 1000 here on betfair. Well I hope that he trades as low in running today as he did that day, last time out over a distance which on the flat was too far for him he still ran well and traded in the process. Back over 12 furlongs or so today will be much more to his liking. The Champion jockey takes the ride for the first time today, the going should not concern him and the horse is in decent enough form and should show up well enough for long enough to give us a trade this afternoon. Backed at 13.5 leaving a lay off in running price of 9.0 for a one point all green screen.