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On Herr Trump winning the US election 5.6 (18% chance of winning) on here now looks a steal. Nate Silver of 538 who has form in the book in the prediction game has Trump at 34% probability of winning. The NYT's The Upshot has 16% probability for Trump while the Huff Post has 1.6% for Trump. The NYT's and the Huff Post are partisan here, (the Huff doesn’t even pretend to be even handed), and their predictions probably too. There is a piece on the Huff that says that Silver has moved into punditry in this election, but he a gives full explanation of his methodology on his site, the Upshot gives a partial explanation and I haven't found the rationale for the Huff.
Regulars on this forum shouldn't need to be reminded that a large minority of people are a bit thick all the time and Murdoch, Desmond, Harmsworth their ilk and their servants have become more and more adept at pushing the buttons of their readership/viewership's highly developed sense of entitlement and inchoate anger at a complex world they can never understand (It’s a computer simulation BTY). There is also an element that is smart enough most of the time to know that voting for the likes of Trump is stupid but sometimes they lose the head and decide to roll the dice on a demagogue, but they remain smart enough to deny it.
I think most people keep their dirty secrets to themselves and will lie for the purpose. I believe that many of the Donald Trump sneaking regarders are lying to the pollsters and that the race is closer than Nat Silver is calling it. I hope I am wrong but my positions on this are cash from chaos positions, I mean "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public". Swop British for American and you have the positions I held on Brexit, a process that seems to be leading to a re-run of the battle for Cable St.
So fill your boots, if you are a bit of a knuck you get a double whammy in the event of a Trump win and if you are not you have a bit of consolation in an insurance policy.
Regulars on this forum shouldn't need to be reminded that a large minority of people are a bit thick all the time and Murdoch, Desmond, Harmsworth their ilk and their servants have become more and more adept at pushing the buttons of their readership/viewership's highly developed sense of entitlement and inchoate anger at a complex world they can never understand (It’s a computer simulation BTY). There is also an element that is smart enough most of the time to know that voting for the likes of Trump is stupid but sometimes they lose the head and decide to roll the dice on a demagogue, but they remain smart enough to deny it.
I think most people keep their dirty secrets to themselves and will lie for the purpose. I believe that many of the Donald Trump sneaking regarders are lying to the pollsters and that the race is closer than Nat Silver is calling it. I hope I am wrong but my positions on this are cash from chaos positions, I mean "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public". Swop British for American and you have the positions I held on Brexit, a process that seems to be leading to a re-run of the battle for Cable St.
So fill your boots, if you are a bit of a knuck you get a double whammy in the event of a Trump win and if you are not you have a bit of consolation in an insurance policy.
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A good judge tells me 50 to 54 percent turn out is a good bet, .poor market here however
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Is Silver modelling the turn out, I don't want to go back near the site, I am in the middle of something else, I know he is at US sports.
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I cannot see it happening and could see Clinton winning by a big margin (think she will get well over the 270 electorial votes needed), she is in a better position according to the polls than Obama was 4 years ago and he won big.
If it was not for the brexit shock (it is still clear in people's minds) i think Clinton would be even shorter so i suppose you could argue she is actually value |
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Donald into 5.0 now, check out projects.fivethirtyeight.com for predictive modelling on the outcome
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So fill your boots, if you are a bit of a knuck you get a double whammy in the event of a Trump win and if you are not you have a bit of consolation in an insurance policy.
For the uninitiated, what exactly are you say? |
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Fill your boots means have a large bet, the double whammy for knucks means that Trump supporters get to yeehaw and collectcollect if Trump wins while bleeding hearts can console them selves with their winnings.
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He'll have to defy an extraordinary amount of polls to win. If anyone outperforms the polls I think Clinton will do it, I think latino turnout is being underestimated and this will help her in Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Colorado looks the tipping point state to me and Clinton has lead 14 of the last 16 polls there that I can find, with the other 2 tied.
My election bets: 24 - 25 States - Democrats States Won Betfair Bet ID 1:78991378968 | Matched: 07-Nov-16 17:27:35 Back 3.55 50.00 -- 127.50 Matched 47.00 - 49.99 Percent - Clinton vote percentage Betfair Bet ID 1:78974257850 | Matched: 07-Nov-16 12:29:40 Back 2.46 50.00 -- 73.00 Matched I normally don't bet on politics but these looked too good to be true. I have Clinton favoured to win in 25 states so I'm only hoping she doesn't also get Ohio or Arizona. |
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ah, knucklehead!
I was surprised to see Newsnight giving the impression of Clinton "gone by" last night, probably wishful thinking. A lot of the reportage has indicated that informal enquiries find overwhelming support for Trump - one episode of "From Our Own Correspondent" found in favour of Trump at a ratio of 6:1 is a straw poll at 30,000 feet-albeit only 7 passengers were involved but there's been lots of similar examples all over the media in recent weeks. There's no doubt that the fear of the unknown versus the status quo is what always influences market makers and this could be another example. Regardless of your view of politics, forgiving Trump his egregious behaviour and Fascist dogma will lead to chaos in the US and further afield imo. Obama quickly discovered Washington politics was all about incremental advances forward, however small. Trump will potentially return America to the Dark Ages. Philip Roth's 2004 novel "The Plot Against America" was amazingly prescient. |
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Hardly surprising Royal Academy thinks The Plot Against America was prescient as it reinforces his anti Catholicism.
The book was a character assassination of Charles Lindbergh Lindbergh was anti war not anti Semetic. In some ways you could argue that Trump is the anti war candidate,that Trump wants to protect Jews because when Muslims come to town the Jews don't hang around. Black Americans should vote Trump as he would do something for them not allow immigrants waltz into America and claim all the affirmative action for themselves. America is sensitive on race because of the black experience something Obama never understood for the obvious reasons. I've backed Trump but am considering getting out of it on the basis that the joy of watching the media going into meltdown should he win far outweighs any monetary gain. |
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I just see it as a value bet seasoned with a little guy instinct, no more. Trump is basically a Danny Healy Ray who overdid the lucozade, nobody has more contempt for his support base than Trump himself, unlike the bould Danny. Rudy G was a good major of NY so there is reason to think a Trump victory is a disaster, except for coal miners and steel men who due to some machination of the elite will continue to lose jobs and money.
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For little guy read little guy. One persistent rumour could be proved this ejection, that Trump and Wild man are the same person, both are orange and have unruly hair and neither have ever been seen together, while sharing the same miller.
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You can scour all my posts on here and you will never find any coarseness or profanities that seems the preserve of Ozymandius.
I have long stated that Trump is an uncouth vulgarian,a brash millionaire New Yorker but its his policies I like. I'm against open borders and globalisation and aware of the threat of Islam to our civilisation as is Trump. I have cringed at his petulance and childishness but have to accept this is the hand we have been dealt. |
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You protest to much you are the Donald, the same man who would rent the Vatican to ISIS and deny the Pope his share of the rent.
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Very poor analogy as its the Clinton supporters that have the hatred of religion coupled with the inexplicable soft spot for the religion of peace.
Clinton will flood America with Muslims. |
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You have the same truthiness as the golden one Wildman.
Say anything that cannot be nailed as a lie and it's fair game nowadays. Rather than ascribing me the usual labels, my take on Roth's book was the rise of the demagogue and the populist and how sections of society become targets of opprobrium through weasel words. Clinton will flood America with Muslims. What a breathtakingly stupid comment. |
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Can the clash of civilization merchants or those primarily interested in Democrats and what have you, move over to Politics.ie or Storm front. Politics should only be important on a trading forum when they impact markets but nobody on this forum seems to have much interest in markets.
There has been some fluctuation in Trumps price today 5.7 last night, 5.7 now but as short 4.8 earlier, with no new information coming into the market I assume that technical traders were scalping those with opinions who came in at the wrong time, some money to be made with a market that big, I must repair my bot, keep meaning to but never seem to have the time. |
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much that I would prefer Trump to win, today I think the game is up, lack of a proper ground game may lose him the critical couple of percentage points. the great irony of the past week, is that the dems who would describe trump and his fans as racist, have concentrated 100% on targeting blacks and Hispanics, Obama in particular sent into action to roll out that vote. trump will easily win the white vote, but minimal black/Hispanic support. The final outcome will be a real exposure that America is a racially divided nation and the cracks are deepening.
Wildman and myself are not joined at the hip, but politically I do see many things through the same prism. for me, the handful of "free world" countries, like a few in north America, most of the EU and a few others like Australia and NZ are currently battle grounds between 2 factions. the 2 factions are the deep rooted Christian conservatives, and athiests. the athiests attack all things dear to Christianity and will embrace all other religions(bar jewish) in their attack on Christianity. The battles rage from subjects as diverse as education, marriage, "rights", abortion. Multiculturalism is the bed partner of the athiests, because especially in western Europe, atheism and multiculturalism can hitch up to diminish the common enemy, Christianity. one wonders, why these athiests and multiculturalists are so silent in totalitarian Muslim states?.....perhaps multiculturalism is in fact about diluting Christianity/judiasm but not in any way effecting Islam. patterns of human behaviour are repeated over and over during the course of history. there is a monumental war ahead sometime in the next 50 years in the "free world", on one side ,the Christians and the Athiests/multiculturalists in the other corner. 1/10 v 8/1 my prices on that war outcome. |
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Rock Piper another who wants to block discussion,another who can't hack differing views.
" truthiness " An opinion is not a lie,I know you find differing opinions hard to take,so much so that you don't believe anyone could hold them. Its this intolerance I object to. We see it in the trial of Geert Wilders,we see it in all these new laws. It has shown itself spectacularly in this election,Trump voters are constantly called stupid or " the deplorables " All our media are behind Clinton and no dissenting voice was allowed. |
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Wildman, you have thus forum destroyed with your apocalyptic views, good luck to you for having them but as I have mentioned there are more appropriate places to discuss them, or cure your status anxiety than here. Christ, its not ago that Trump was golfing with Bill Clinton, he saw there was demand for a populist demagogue and he cornered the market. Now tell me this what do you think Trump's true price is?
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I'm useless at pricing these things.
Rock Piper doesn't like political views on this forum but sneaks his political views in on this supposed betting thread. He gets in the usual sneering about most people are " a bit thick " he naturally enough isint because he has all the ride on views. He makes my point about the intolerance of Liberals by trying to suppress certain views but dishonestly parading his opinions by slipping them in on this thread. |
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140,468,140 done on the market just a few seconds ago, must be heading for a record for a political market here.
@Wildo, you should start thread called "Now is the Time to Dress up in Bedsheets" and you can chide me for mentioning betting on that thread. What do ye wear under the robes anyways, nothing like the Scots or is it true ye wear stockings and suspenders I might be interested in signing up then, but only if ye make me a wizard. |
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Im not into politics , and even though id like to see Trump winning as he has charisma, and Clinton hasnt. But i wouldnt lose any sleep over it either way, as these people are only figureheads, ultimately they have no say in what way the country is run. So i dont get what all the fuss is about to be honest, as ultimately its going to make no difference whatsoever to anybody over here, or anywhere else for that matter.
From what i can gather Rock Piper is advising backing Trump on the basis that even if you are supporting Clinton, it will put you in a no lose situation as if Clinton wins, you are happy and if Trump wins you make money. Not even an imbecile like the Wonkatonk would come up with something as stupid as that. |
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They are all there.
Anyone not agreeing with Rock Piper is thick,then suggest they are fascists,bring up Hitler and follow it up with the racism charge and end it by claiming Trump supporters are members of the Klan. One irony is Rock Piper being offended by Trumps coarse language yet parades his own infantile vulgarity here. |
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for me, the handful of "free world" countries, like a few in north America, most of the EU and a few others like Australia and NZ are currently battle grounds between 2 factions.
the 2 factions are the deep rooted Christian conservatives, and athiests. the athiests attack all things dear to Christianity and will embrace all other religions(bar jewish) in their attack on Christianity. The battles rage from subjects as diverse as education, marriage, "rights", abortion. Multiculturalism is the bed partner of the athiests, because especially in western Europe, atheism and multiculturalism can hitch up to diminish the common enemy, Christianity. one wonders, why these athiests and multiculturalists are so silent in totalitarian Muslim states?.....perhaps multiculturalism is in fact about diluting Christianity/judiasm but not in any way effecting Islam. patterns of human behaviour are repeated over and over during the course of history. there is a monumental war ahead sometime in the next 50 years in the "free world", on one side ,the Christians and the Athiests/multiculturalists in the other corner. 1/10 v 8/1 my prices on that war outcome. Lots of very good points made there keen leader |
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Despite the digs it is a good thread, i have no opinion regarding the betting though i thought the original post and odds were a fair bet.
While i'd have WW3 in the back of my head and i won't lose sleep either i hope Trump gets in, it is a vote against the establishment and is for the working man. It seems Hilary(big business) vs Trump (working man ), She seems to have had the backing of their tools in money and media would have me hoping Trump gets it. Good post Keen Leader, you could be odds on with that and while i'm generally laid back i worry for the future myself. |
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Puerility not vulgarity Wildo, and you are free to disagree with me and maybe thick is the wrong word but if anybody thinks Trump cares about the little man is deeply deluded.
@Mincer I have been backing Trump because I thought him a value bet, anecdotally there doesn't seem to be much evidence to support that ATM but the 5.7 there is still value, but I am all in on him so no more for me. I gave my reasons why I thought he was value in my first post which you seem to have problems reading. |
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Deluded signing in
I'm sure Hilary will be falling over herself in regard "small man". Maybe it is all an election ploy but i think he would surprise a few people,the wall isn't a knew idea but it is a possible solution to "little man" worries/fears |
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Pa check out Nate Silvers excellent 538 website, Monte Carloing is where it is trying to make predictions about complex events and the US presidential election is an excellent candidate for the process. Nate has got the last two pretty spot on and I am hoping he has improved his methodology this year. I was a bit worried about Trump, but I had a think today and he has pulled back from Anne Coulter's mouth frothing and is Rudy G's boy now so its neo-liberalism as usual same as a Clinton win.
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As you can tell a quick scan, 28.6% chance he is giving Trump,he is building a lot of factors in,the biggest is obviously the "undecided vote" which he estimates at 12% + which could make it go either way.
Personal "conjecture" would be more would keep quiet if voting Trump. He(Nate) seems a fair and objective pundit but isn't he only one? Would other pundits for other varying reasons to have Hilary way ahead? I have no financial interest but would like to think people are starting to speak up and want change. |
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Ya 28.6 now he was 34% when I put him up, Betfair has him at 17% was the same then, so double the true price last night, if Nat has the true price, he is the only stats pollster with a transparent methodology and he more or less invented the game. The undecideds are making Trumps probability bigger, I have most of them down as sneaking regarders.
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Slate (anecdotal votecastr estimate) calling Florida for Clinton, he is going for a walk out to 7.0 now and apparently they have given Trump his phone back as he is tweeting again. Sounds like the sound of the towel hitting the floor. Rotten orange ****, not only am I not getting any work done, I am losing bigly.
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Hilary is going to skate in , the turnout is substantial which indicates an anti vote . Guess who most are agin ?
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Sligo Rovers (Rock Piper) 5 Wildman/Pa 0
WD Rock, doing us proud. Wildman "I'm useless at pricing these things." At least you admit it, now to get Pa too.  |
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Don't know about that Rocket in this for a few quid, could be an own goal but you can't win them all, then again Brexit went out to 14 or 15 and I collected on that bigly, it was a beautiful bet really beautiful.
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Put a few bob on Hilary to give your townie a decent shot Rocket( in a bit after a fair drift),
have a bud n burger in the meantime and come back when you think the wind is blowing your way again. |
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Almost 150 millon bet on the next President here.
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A traders dream.
Early days and no real key points but Trump isn't out of it at all. |
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Its ova, Trump is dumped in Florida, Ohio is not enough. I am hitting the hay. Wildman has crawled into his nest in the trees and may never emerge again.
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Trump 50% to Clintons 47% in Florida earlier,a fair change around, Trump closing there just now but looks a must win state,looks over alright.
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