HSBC Champions Golf

One of my favourite events, and though viewing times are a pain in the hole, it is worth dragging oneself out of bed to watch(or stay up all night as has been the case in recent years after the Breeders Cup!)

The list of recent champions is a real whose who of the golfing world, and I don't think this weeks winner is going to be a surprise name to anyone.

I was sceptical of backing Rory McIlroy pre tournament last week, as I questioned his putting, and confidence levels because of his lack of success on the greens. He showed enough on this front to warrant a bet mid way, but ultimately didn't get the job done. A few chips on Sunday were a bit below what you would expect, but his birdie range putting was certainly better than of late over the 4 days and the pieces look to be coming together.

He will have had this week as one of his two big targets since recovering from injury, and on a course he loves, he will be very very hard to beat.

Power is a big asset around here as suggested by DJ and Bubba winning the last two editions. Rorys driving looked in good nick last week, and he is going to have a big advantage over the majority of the field when it comes to second shot time. He hit some wonderful approaches last week, and I expect it all to click in Shanghai. I missed the 13-2, but 6-1 is more than big enough.

Shane Lowry again left a few short ones out there last week, but rallied well after a couple of poor days. He has yet to contend here, but he is now a WGC champion himself, and will come here confident he can win another one. Last week will have set him nicely for this, and at 33-1 he has to be backed.

I was going to add Martin Kaymer, but am confident that one of the other two will oblige so have got with him in a different market, where I believe he offers more value.

He is 5-1 for Top Continental Euro, and this is a cracking bet.

Henrik Stenson heads the market, and though one would expect him to play much better than his very disappointing display last week, that is definitely a worry coming here. As is his recent form here, which is very poor for one of his starting price.

Sergio Garcia didn't seem to be bubbling with happiness last week, so can also be avoided at the moment. With these two taking a huge chunk of the market, if one doesn't fancy them it follows that there must be some apparent value elsewhere.

Bernd Wiesberger has never played here, and though you would expect him to take to it, it is definitely a disadvantage. Noren and Jimenez are wildly out of form. Pieters , Kjeldsen, Olesen and Lingmerth don't strike any fear into me at the moment.

Which leaves Kaymer. True the German has looked a little shy of confidence with his chipping of late, taking putter from questionable positions and distances from the pin. But if anywhere is going to give him a lift it is here, he loves the place. Out of the top 10 only once in the last 5 years held here, he is fancied to once again take a prominent position come Sunday morning. That should be enough to see off some opponents which really don't look to fit the bill this week.

Anyone that can get on with Stan James, do so, as they offer 1/4 odds a place, compared to 1/5th with everyone else. A  bet to nothing IMO.

6pts e.w Rory McIlroy 6-1
1pt e.w Shane Lowry 33-1

4pts e.w Martin Kaymer 5-1 Top Continental Euro(superb bet)

Oz, I started adding up the P&L earlier, but got a pain in my tits doing it!! I would estimate that I am about 90 points down. A poor showing no doubt, so hopefully can finish the year off with a few winners.