Nothing wrong with getting one wrong mincer. It's how you go about it is the problem.
Starting a thread saying the horse is no good and won't win after the first race of it's career!!!!!??
Ridiculous....unprofessional....etc etc...
Then you want to lay it to lose 4 grand?? And going by your comments on the horse you wouldn't be backing it back either.
And then you say you also backed 3 losers in the same race....
It's stuff you would expect from a bloke 1 year in the game.....
And I can tell you from first hand experience Easygold has a LOT of the answers pre-race as I'm sure MANY, many of his followers can vouch for.

The biggest giveaway someone can give that they are inexperienced or a long-term loser is for them to give a fella grief based on one result. Anyone with a quarter of a clue knows the mathemathetical realities of the game that unless you are a habitual odds-on player, even the very best players will get it wrong much more than right and will regularly get it spectacularly wrong. I have no problem with a fella giving another lad stick for flawed thinking or poor reasoning for a bet, but to give him grief solely based on a result says more about the chap that is dishing out the grief than the fella that is taking it.

I think the problem is although you make valid arguments for taking the horse on, none of them surely trump the inside knowledge the stable and connections have about the horse, for example the post-race comments that nothing can take it off the bridle at home

perhaps you overanalysed it, after all it's not a group one it's a maiden race, I too thought it was probably a lay pre-race but let's face it the connections knew better than we did, as after all if it's the best horse in the stable surely it's going to be up to winning a maiden race at navan?

With the benefit of hindsight the money for it spoke volumes, although the money can often be wrong.

I don't understand what you mean Tell the king.

Surely it's not rocket science to understand that stable opinion is going to be more weighty, because they have the inside track, on these maidens where the runners have either had no runs or very few runs? I mean we're supposed to be punters, not psychics. How on earth are you supposed to know how good an unraced two year old is unless you have access to inside information?

Or am I missing something?

ive a new found respect for mincer.he made his point .he was wrong about the horse( he made logical point about the trainer etc)  came on like a man and admitted it..there a good few here wouldnt..fair play..

I heard he had set up a soup kitchen for the homeless with a sign saying 'Indigenous Only'.

I suppose what I am saying LR is that don't care if a stable think their horse is a machine like O' Callaghan's did with yesterday's. What about it? What else is he going to say after the race when he is probably looking for half a million of Pearl Bloodstock? I saw the Dundalk run where he showed a nice bit of ability but there were still questions in my book going into yesterdays race. As a rule, I wouldn't back a 2yo going from AW to grass regardless of what the vibes are from the stable. It's punting in the dark for me.

If you are backing horses based on trainers quotes then best of luck to you.

LR and Joe Mac I am also not referring to unraced two year olds. The winner and several others in the race all had runs. Backing unraced horses is a different kettle of fish and the market near post time is the main guide (far from foolproof though).

But having only one run is hardly much evidence to go on either. Look at these O'Brien two year old's that virtually get schooled in public. You are then completely guessing how much the horse is going to improve from it's first to second run, and only really have the market to guide you.

I'm not basing my punting purely on trainers comments but to say you ignore them altogether, well that's going too far in my opinion. You take them with a pinch of salt but it's also part of the analytical process. I mean most punters wouldn't even put the work in to find out what the trainer says about a horse.

Wouldnt mind a single thing that is said after the race with this trainer.  He is trying to sell the horse and while a horse of obvious ability i doubt you will see him win a group race.  We will see in time.

As for Now or Never, they have their black type so job done with her but you saw how good she was when she finished last at the Curragh.  Only one way she is going from here and that down!

Joe I'd agree with you as regards Ballydoyle horses. Taking yesterday's race I would have been happy to field against the winner at the right price (sub 2's) with the handful of horses with experience running for me. The way I look at a race is am I happy to lay one at X price with the expectation that none of the newcomers are going to count? It's too difficult to pre-empt the Ballydoyle newcomers these days. Look at Coolmore, Johanne Vermeer and a few more that where odds on and got beat this year on debut. Conversely they have had often have one or two surprise debut winners too.

As regards, tonights race I'd have 1m4f fillies maidens at the end of September as amongst the most inhospitable of punting environments. Hence why I wouldn't have an opinion on the market one way or the other.

LR where did you see those O' Callaghan comments before the race? As far as I can see the premise of your point is based on what was said by connections after the race which is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. There's also a world of difference between a horse from a yard like O' Callaghans, Deegans etc where they have the 2yo's ready to do a job and the project horses they have in Ballydoyle. I would tailor my views on how I expect their horses to progress run to run accordingly.

BWS, if you think the Moyglare run is an accurate reflection of Now Or Never you are clearly on drugs. Too bad to be true, obviously. I saw her at Galway, big filly, would be surprised if she doesn't do well next year.

Do you have any better examples of his horses that "after a run and max two runs they go backwards at a rate of knots"?

This has developed into a very interesting thread ,nice to see logical reasons for and against , keep the ball rolling lads .After all its a game of opinions .

I wouldn't knock you at all for taking a view against the horse, TTK, my point is purely that these maidens are minefields in my view and inside info plays too much of a role in the shape of the market to justify taking a strong view.

The only strong view anyone can take in these 2 year old maiden is to lay O'Brien newcomers at 2/1 or less without knowing anything.  You would have cleaned up on virtually every maiden in which this happened this year.  The more money that comes for them the more you should lay.  Somebody has got very badly burned 7 or 8 times this season.

BWS,
The horse was 14/1 (briefly) the night before and it wouldn't have taken much money to drive it into 5/1 in the morning, but there was a weight of support after that when the market strengthened up to cut him down to 9/4.

You can take whatever view you want, that is entirely your own business, but I thought it was harsh for you to post a very negative view about the trainer when I can't find any great evidence to back it up. The lad is clearly well able to get them ready to run well first time out, but it isn't like he is selling them to Hong Kong at the first opportunity to get rid of them, he is selling them to stay in the yard and he wouldn't be doing that if he thought he had them cooked after a couple of runs as his reputation would soon be ruined and no one would want to buy off him.

There was a lot of welcome advice on this thread.

TellTheKings pricing of the race was stunningly accurate.
If Mincer keeps laying 4/1 shots at 2/1 the results won't matter.

The advice given worked for me as I waited til the last minute to back it.

My only regret is they didnt run him in that Group 3 race in Leopardstown as I think he would have won it.

I saw what I think is a real good horse in that race also,was I alone or did anyone else spot it.

Wd, read this thread night before but forgot to follow up due to work

Don't think Schubert is much really.

The one I liked the look of was the second string of Welds,he had the usual tardy start but I saw lots of potential in that run.

Yeah Welds looked to be doing plenty right after the turn in and Roche was happy there wasn't much room. Hard to see him for the last 2f on the screen though.

Liked Schubert myself. The War Fronts have a rep for being flashy. He looked more like a work in progess though. Only caveat is he didn't look especially big.

Poor aul widman. Fair enough, he puts up a winner. But I am only crediting him a 5-4 winner. The wildman has a total and utter dislike of STARTING prices, and a serious penchant for MORNING prices.
The MORNING price of Blue De Vega was 5-4. The STARTING price was 7-2. Unlucky old bean, can't have your cake and eat it......