Irish Sports
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
and it wont win either, the reason being its no good.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 145
|
By:
You could be right Mincer , A likely Story didn't frank the form yesterday ...Maybe that race at Dundalk wasn't as good as first seemed...
|
|
By:
I presume you are basing that on the run of A Likely Story in Navan,I hope 'twas the ground that beat him as it was a poor run.
Another minus would be the fact the bit ran through his mouth in Dundalk so he was probably an unlucky loser at Dundalk. I still think Blue De Vega will win tomorrow,you have to believe your own eyes. The ones that have raced are no great shakes,he will beat them easy,Aidan OBrien has a few unraced in it Schubert is by a sire I hate War Front. I will be lumping on anyway. |
|
By:
You could be right Wildman and suspect it will win but this trainers horses don't improve in general after a run or two. They start regressing mostly. Has sold a number of duds after their first start
|
|
By:
Now i may be wrong but this looks a really deep race to me, there isnt a stable missing from the race really.
AW form isnt worth a sausage in the context of a race like this, the winner of the race isnt much, the seconds not worth two bob, and the fourth was beat in Gowran, admittedly not too far, but that isnt great form. Its ridden by Mcnamara, has no form on the grass, and is coming from an outfit who can get them screwy fit first time. I will be surprised if it won, and not a bit surprised if its nowhere. Keep your money Dan |
|
By:
I like the sire but couldn't contemplate backin this trainer. Look at that filly that ran in the group 1 a few weeks ago. Last and no doubt will never win another race
|
|
By:
Same with that donkey Moral High Ground. Pile of ****.
|
|
By:
All fair points but I was backing him to win a Group 3 last week so I can hardly not back him in a maiden.
Accept the point about the trainer ( all his horses are for sale ) but this lad missed the break and ran green. The jockey is another minus but that will extend the price. I couldn't price a race to save my life so have to wait for someone to do it for me but anything around 4/1 would look massive to me and worth doing each way,he can't be out of the first three. |
|
By:
Form Name Trainer Jockey Odds %
Aa Bee See D Wachman Fran Berry 21 5% 64 Afzal M Halford Shane Foley 8 13% 7 Almanaara D K Weld Pat Smullen 8 13% Araqeel D K Weld Leigh Roche 17 6% 9 Bearwood David Wachman Wayne Lordan 13 8% 3 Blue De Vega M D O´Callaghan Emmet McNamara 6 17% 8 Emigrated Mrs John Harrington Billy Lee 17 6% Hudson Canyon A P O´Brien Mick Hussey 21 5% Immortal BridgetA P O´Brien Sheamie Heffernan 13 8% 7 Mizaah Kevin Prendergast Chris Hayes 10 10% 5 Prepotent G M Lyons Colin Keane 15 7% Protocol M Halford Conor Hoban 17 6% Schubert A P O´Brien Joseph O' Brien 5 20% 547 Snowy Scene Joseph G Murphy Gary Carroll 26 4% 47 Tribal Beat J S Bolger Kevin Manning 8 13% 7 Xarco P D Deegan Conor King 34 3% Overround 140% |
|
By:
Form Name Trainer Jockey Odds %
Aa Bee See D Wachman Fran Berry 21 5% 64 Afzal M Halford Shane Foley 8 13% 7 Almanaara D K Weld Pat Smullen 8 13% Araqeel D K Weld Leigh Roche 17 6% 9 Bearwood David Wachman Wayne Lordan 13 8% 3 Blue De Vega M D O´Callaghan Emmet McNamara 6 17% 8 Emigrated Mrs John Harrington Billy Lee 17 6% Hudson Canyon A P O´Brien Mick Hussey 21 5% Immortal Bridget A P O´Brien Sheamie Heffernan 13 8% 7 Mizaah Kevin Prendergast Chris Hayes 10 10% 5 Prepotent G M Lyons Colin Keane 15 7% Protocol M Halford Conor Hoban 17 6% Schubert A P O´Brien Joseph O' Brien 5 20% 547 Snowy Scene Joseph G Murphy Gary Carroll 26 4% 47 Tribal Beat J S Bolger Kevin Manning 8 13% 7 Xarco P D Deegan Conor King 34 3% Overround 140% |
|
By:
Aa Bee See (21), Afzal (8), Almanaara (8), Araqeel (17), Bearwood (13), Blue De Vega (6),Emigrated (17), Hudson Canyon (21), Immortal Bridget (13) , Mizaah (10), Prepotent (15), Protocol (17), Schubert (5), Snowy Scene (26), Tribal Beat (8), Xarco (34)
Very tricky race to price up for a variety of reasons. Have gone artificially short on Blue De Vega as it's clear the horse will be punted. Real price based on form is 7 - 8/1. Obviously the Ballydoyle horse could be anything and theres half a dozen with solid form that would be good enough to run well in most maidens. |
|
By:
Apologies for the previous two posts. Had it formatted on a more visually friendly basis but didn't transfer to the post.
|
|
By:
That's 144% TTK
 . |
|
By:
I totted up 140.18% I think Callit but I'll take your word rather than go through it again.
Either way I'm robbing the punters! |
|
By:
Schubert cost 1,300,000 . Would need to justify that price tag with at least a good start here.
|
|
By:
Aidan's very rarely win first time up these days,Wouldn't go near a new comer of his it's all about an education for his Debutants.
I do like having a punt on something else when one of his Debutants are ridiculously short though, Bolgers are usually over priced (on debut) Tribal Beat is having it's 3rd run and has went off Fav on both occasions and last time in a decent race,If i was having a bet i think i'd side with Tribal Beat. |
|
By:
The first show is in and I was a mile off Powers prices on the first two in the market. Win or lose, Blue De Vega is a horrendously bad price at 5/4. If he is sub 2's when the real market forms near post time he is a lay all day candidate.
On a related note, I said I would be cautious with my over round. The PP first show is 150%. |
|
By:
Paddy powers odds compilers wouldn't know what century they are living in. Its no more a 5/4 shot than the man in the moon. They price races to 3% per runner and they still haven't a clue.
Does anybody want 2/1 it ?, if they do then we can put up a bet for them. |
|
By:
5/4,,? not saying much for the other 16runners,
|
|
By:
Aren't these sort of maidens to a large extent complete guessing games?
None of O'Brien's in this race have even run before. Basically you are betting way behind the stable which must have a far better idea how good they all are and how fit they are. The way I like to play maidens is to lay some horse that is thoroughly exposed and has been beaten several times before, against some less exposed types which either haven't run before or has had far less runs. |
|
By:
TellTheKing when is the last time they bet 5 the field in a Naas maiden for two year olds.
Mincer why is your 2/1 not showing,surely putting up a feeler is the way to go. Most maidens are narrowed down by time,the not fancied ones will be discovered before morning. That draw would worry me as well. |
|
By:
Wildman 5 = 4/1. Dunno about Naas as tomorrow’s race is of unusual depth. They bet 4’s the field in Smash Williams maiden in the Curragh. Far from rare for big field maidens to bet 7/2 or bigger the field.
I don’t care what way the market goes as i already know where is at least a handful of horses that could step forward big time before you take the newcomers into consideration. Two year olds would make fools of the market most of the time. |
|
By:
Sorry, I thought I had already posted a revised pricing based on Powers 150%. I would have shortened Blue De Vega to 4/1 and Schubert to 7/2 to increase the original tissue over round.
|
|
By:
Smash Williams race wasn't an ordinary maiden it was a sales race also with a massive pot and massive field.
How does 5 = 4/1 when its pricing a race. I wasn't trying to get at you as I've already admitted I'd be lost pricing a race but I think its damn hard. I saw something I liked in Dundalk that day,I was going to back him in a Group 3 so I'm kind of pot committed to back him tomorrow. |
|
By:
Smash Williams won a 6 furlong maiden. Big field alright but still a maiden. You may be thinking of another horse.
I set out my tissue in decimals so 5 = 4/1. Wasn’t sure whether you were saying 5 or 5/1 above. He ran well in Dundalk and isn’t bad. There’s plenty of reasons to take him tomorrow and he’s a suicide bet at under 2’s in my book. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before though. |
|
By:
It wasn't a sales race. It was a maiden and it was worth 10k to the winner.
|
|
By:
on another note O'Brien horse in Nudery looked decent in Galway considering his lad was dangling for about 5 mins just before the off.
|
|
By:
Nursery
|
|
By:
Re the horse in question, one of the best horses this trainer has had broke her maiden at Dundalk in January or February off the top of my head. This yoke has the AW experience and wouldn't they basically be holding a sure thing if they waited another 6 weeks to really strike with this.
I think the Lope de vegas might be dodgy in the ground (pedigree is american ain't it), but I could see it being worse than yielding, presume the ground was bad when they pulled it out last time and if this horse is anything much, I can't see them killing him tomorrow either way. They could cruise around Dundalk in 6 weeks where they knew he acts and pay for Christmas if we see something lamentable tomorrow! After he ran first, I thought they'd run him on a decent surface next if they wanted him to win or go close. He acted so well at Dundalk. |
|
By:
Irish Champions weekend when he was supposed to run was it? If that surface wasn't satisfactory, can't see him liking tomorrow. Maybe they wanted the race to cut up but that was never likely that weekend.
|
|
By:
Dan, i cant really put up a bet on here but i can do so on the purple, im sure many people who have dual accounts so it wouldnt be any problem for them to avail of it.
I think you can understand that it would be bad enough going 2/1 a 5/4 shot( according to powers ) and only getting 60% of my money, and paying commission as well. In effect it would be 10/3 i would be laying it at which wouldnt be fair. If anyones interested i will put up a 1000 at 3.0 against it on the purple and if its matched then i will put it up again. |
|
By:
Lope De Vega horses love cut.
He is owned by the trainer so I'd imagine is for export. I think he will drift. Mincer has listed a host of negatives,the draw is another but I still think he will win,will wait til the last minute for best price. |
|
By:
I see the bots have reacted to Mincers action.
|
|
By:
Surely this Blue de vega is a lay at this sort of price, saw the replay of it's first run and didn't look that impressive. Could be a bit of a hype horse.
Plenty to take it on with as well. |
|
By:
Good thread with strong views,for what it is worth if BDV gets beat today,the ground,weakness of its Dundalk race form and the unknown factor of todays opponents are reasons enough to leave the horse alone but the amount of ground BDV made up at Dundalk from being so far back was very eyecatching.
Afzal of those that have run is solid with a furlong less and proven groundwise,well thought of Tribal Beat's debut drew a lot of comments on here at the time.$1.3m yearling Schubert looks probably best of the newcomers. BVD,s sp will be largely down to Schuberts strength/weakness. |
|
By:
Laid it for small money @3.3 and 3.1 ..
|
|
By:
Nice to see the soft side of Mincer not wanting to take any money of the foremites on this thread, and equally brave of him to be willing to back up what he said,.. I have to go lads i promised the wife i do some painting.
|
|
By:
Almanaara would be my idea of the winner....got a lovely 'introduction' by Smullen at the Curragh
and looked like the step back to 7f would be no harm.....anyway best of luck. |
|
By:
wow that was impressive
THEY KNEW |
|
By:
 |