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Final major of the year.
Everything points towards bombers having a big advantage and that is how I am playing it.
Can see a leaderboard similar to Doral.
Everything points towards bombers having a big advantage and that is how I am playing it.
Can see a leaderboard similar to Doral.
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I cant see beyond Spieth and DJ. I don't think I have ever backed DJ for a major before, and never thought I would until he won one, but this may be it.
Hills n Corals 8s on Jordan tomorrow. Hills have been top on the top 10/12 players for the past few majors on the Wednesday. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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On 2010 the leaderboard did look a bit lop-sided with the bombers though there was a smattering of short accurate off the tee up there as well,i leant that way myself.
I'm again with Bubba again,his 2nd there then and his consistency in the last few weeks is nearly sure to see him contend once again, not much on his price at 16/1 as so many near the front are very capable. Long hitting Hail Marys for small,Holmes(170)Howell 111(660)M Jones(700)Palmer(320) and Tringale(660). Rest for I/R. Speith with Mcilroy and Zach some grouping,not that i'd be interested but if someone told you 2 months ago that Rory would be 2/1 in a 3 ball you'd have got some looks. Presume there will at least be some coverage before the advertised 7.00,whether holes or groups. Last one was great viewing with a bunched leaderboard and a cracking course,odds on to be similar this week. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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There prob be couple featured groups on red button each day. Tiger sure to be one of them Thursday.
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Its a major that has thorn up some funny ones over the years (YE Yang, Shaun Micheel) and there are some huge prices on the machine. Ryan Palmer caught my eye as well.
My main pics come from the top of the betting. Both players lack course form but have current form in their favour. 1. Louis Oostuizen 40/1 : Has a 2nd in US Open & in St. Andrews in his last 2 major starts. A relatively poor week in Firesone means we get a juicy 40/1. Ricky Fowler is half his price @ 20/1. Doesn't make sense to me. 2. Henrik Stenson 28/1 : From a pure stats point of view I'm on Stenson. No.1 for Ball striking and total driving will be key this week. Can't see him not involved. Others considered ; Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jason Day Bizmarks ; Rory @ 14s, Bubba 16s Others backed Charl Schwartzel 140, Martin Kaymer 85, Paul Casey 100 and at the Shaun Micheel level Ryan Palmer 320, Daniel Berger 920, Jason Bohn 440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kaymer is very big. I thought he played quite well last week.
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Think Villegas a good bet for top South American. 13-8.
Grillo has potential, but this is out of his comfort zone at the moment. He is also quite a bit bigger than Camillo in the outright market. Gomez has missed 6 of his last 7 cuts, and was nearly last in his completed event. Villegas shot a best of the day 65 last Sunday, was top 10 here in 2010, pops up on leaderboards where he has previous, and consistently plays the tougher courses well for someone of his SP. Odds on shot IMO. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Good spot.
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keegan, charl and young fowler so far for me
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ye lads throw alot of darts.
"KR if its trades you're looking for, I have laid Jason Day at 15, Bubba at 17.5 and Brooks Koepka at 50 for next wk. Still available. Not one of them will start that short." atm on the exchange ,Day 13.5-1,Bubba 15.5-1,Koepka 49-1. Is villegas a 5 pointer like Oostuizen was? tbh,i dont think you know what you are at. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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They know their golf inside out Rat,better than me by far and always worth a listen.
Betfairs article in the news and tips section in regards approaching trading for this tournament is worth a read but as it is out in the public domain it won't be original,it basically says the last few holes on each side are tough. Everyone has a different approach,75%ish of my betting bank for a tournament would be for in play or end of round, as it is often spontaneous on say something happening to a leader,a good shot,weather change,playing an easier part of course,a lot of reasons and by tournaments end could be a fairly significant number of backs and lays,i,d imagine i wouldn't be alone. Thurs/Fri are usually a level playing field but that changes in the weekend as some have faster feeds etc. Kelly gave ya a correct answer to your question on another thread imo,if you combined that with "backing"as well as laying on higher liquidity tournaments you wouldn't go far wrong,you have to find the key yourself really as it often comes down to your own perception of "value". | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Final major of the year and should be a cracker. A lot of the top player's in form. A case can be made for so many.
Bubba 14/1 win - Beaten in a playoff last time it was here and in great form. Kaymer 50/1 win - Won last time on this track. If this was not at this course i would be put off. His form compared to the top players this year is not great but 50/1 i think is a good price. Robert Streb - 80/1 e/w bet - Having a very consistent season. Fifth last week. 11th in greens in regulation which i think will be a factor this week. His scramblin is ok (70th) and he is long off the tee(42nd). Bernd Weisberger - 175/1 e/w bet - 17th on the european tour in greens in reg. Long enough off tee 39th. 14th in scrambling. Had a decent enough finish last week 25 and won the french open recently a difficult enough track. As i said a good case can be made for so many. One other i considered backing was Stenson. However i normally only go each way over a certain price and at 28/1 i don't think a win only bet is value. Good luck with your bets should be cracking viewing. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Jordan Spieth 7/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1 Steven Bowditch 175/1 Russell Henley 200/1 Good luck all | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Rat i only back the majors normally as i know all are trying. With golf espically the majors their are a lot in win a genuine chance. Some tracks suit some golfer's more than others. There is a lot of stats out their and i enjoy spending a bit of time on the majors. Have had some nice wins over the years. The golf stuff is one of the better things on this forum. Most tournaments unlike horse races have 150 plus runners so your normally going to pick a few. If you don't enjoy it don't read it. But pouring scorn over it for the sake of it makes no sense to me.
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Going to be a cracking weeks golf ahead,
Main bet Jordan Spieth 7/1 e/w,gone in quite large,cannot see him not challenging come sunday night, Second bet,Fowler betting w/o Jordan and Rory e/w 14/1,will love the conditions and with the wind likely to play it part over the four days,you need a good player that can handle theses conditions,Fowler is one of the best wind players around, Last bet going to do a super yankee for the interest, Rose top English player 2/1, Jimenez top senior player 7/4, Day top Oz player 11/10, Villegas top South American player 6/4, Lingmerth top Swedish player 13/8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If this years event is as good as last years epic, it will be some viewing. With all the big names in form, and a returning Rory, the pieces are in place for another cracker.
Jordan Spieth has been absolutely superb this year. He has really grasped the nettle in the majors, and only a 3 putt on 17 at St Andrews deprived him the chance of coming here in search of an unprecedented Grand Slam. He is the type of player and person who will use that loss as motivation to put things right this week, and I think he is going to take a hell of a lot beating. I will be surprised if whoever beats Jordan this week isn't holding the trophy come Sunday evening. He had a lovely run out last week in the Bridgestone. Not quite in the heat of battle, but playing well enough on a course that doesn't suit, to suggest the A Game is ready and waiting. He is an unbelievable competitor, that refuses to be beaten, and seems to haul himself back form any bogeys with a barrage of birdies. The amount of time he birdie his final hole is ridiculous, and its that winners never say attitude, which is the difference between winning multiple majors and being a nearly man. I have read in places that the course length is against him. I cant have that. Plenty of shorter hitters were right on the fringes here in 2010, and Jordan is not exactly short. Chambers Bay was quite a similar test, and we all know what happened there. What 2010 did give us, was a leaderboard full of class, and I believe the cream will rise to the top again. I don't think we will get a Rich Beem style result this year. Quite simply, I cant see Jordan not contending, and going mighty close. One slight worry, but given his strong mind its only very slight, is that he is in the Rory 3 ball. It may be a bit of a circus. I have never backed Dusty Johnson for a major before, he isn't really my cup of tea. He seems to blow so many opportunities, and not just choke close to the line, but simply disappear from trace and ruin any place part of the bet. But though he performed his party piece again at St Andrews having had the halfway lead, something tells me he may battle to the line here. This place owes him one. Sportsmen can get inspiration from strabge places, and I really believe what happened DJ here in 2010 will help him to get over the line here. A bit of a 'F*ck You ' attitude can keep his mind from wandering. He was brutal over the weekend in Firestone, but once he lost his chance early on Saturday, I doubt he really bothered too much after that. All focus would have moved to this week. He has never really played well at last weeks venue, an all that display has done, is increased his price. I don't think for one minute, his chances of winning this week have diminished. Again, like Spieth, he showed how much these linksy style venues suit him at Chambers, and again at St Andrews. He is now a bigger price than Bubba, who was over twice his price 7 days ago. A huge over reaction to their relative chances imo. You could make a case for all the big names at the head of the market, but these two are the ones I feel may separate themselves form the rest. Martin Kaymer took advantage of DJs final hole woes here in 2010, and he seems over priced to be collecting another Major trophy in a few days time. A poor start in the British Open cost him any chance, but he finished very well, and will rightly fancy his chances here. Like Spieth, he has an iron will, and if he can get in the mix over the weekend, he wont step aside lightly. Brandt Snedeker and Branden Grace completed my staking. Sned is shorter than what might seem the ideal type for here, but Im not too sure its a real bombers paradise. The forecast is good, and the fairways will be firm and fast. The likes of Snedeker will be able to compete. Grace excelled himself at Chambers Bay, and was probably unlucky not to at least force a playoff. He will relish this test. As said in an earlier post, I think Villegas is a cracking bet for Top South American. I was going to have a cut on Pod for Top Irish, but the knee injury, and apparent extent of it has diluted my enthusiasm there. 6pts e.w Jordan Spieth 8-1 3pts e.w Dustin Johnson 16-1 .6pt e.w Martin Kaymer 66-1 .5pt e.w Branden Grace 80-1 .3pt Snedeker @ 120/.4pt Top 5 @ 17.5 6pts Villegas Top South American 13-8 Good Luck all. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dabbled in a few 3 balls, doing 4 timers and up.
Villegas, Kjeldsen, Monty, Singh, Matsuyama and Lingmerth. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Rory Sabbatini 1000/1, 100/1 Top 5,40/1 Top 10,12/1 Top 20/1... 14/1 Top S.African.... 250/1 Ist Rnd Leader........ and Jason Dufner 220/1... that will do me until Sunday morning.
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Very tempted to add Dufner myself.
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Betvictor??? I had 25 e/way at 250/1 on Rory Sab 1st round leader.... my 1st ever golf bet with them....... eh 125/1 now..... Has Rory got four-legs and a tail????
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A leg and a half maybe, yeah wondered about that 3 ball with Spieth myself,could be a bit of a circus indeed and Spieth is fairly tempermental as well,on the flip side there is an element surely with the no 1 question and no doubt he will be bustin a gut for that.
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Adam Scott 38/1 ,y.e.yang 1000/1,SANG MOON BAH 980/1,TYRELL HATTON 840/1, Rafa Cabrera-Bello 590/1 ,And Eddie Pepperell 810/1 a good outsider.IM Forever The Optimist lads.
 good luck | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Good start for ya Easygold Sabba birdies first.
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Stop the fight.......
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haha, -2 now, official Uspga site way ahead of pga.com and shottracker legacy,has a shot tracker also.
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Yeah they are way ahead..... he just needs to keep it going..... but the anger he has when he gets a bogey.... usually adds more bogeys... he had 5 brides on the second day here in 2010 so a low round is in him if he keeps the head
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Yet another fast start in a major for DJ.
What does he do form here??! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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donny osmond • August 13, 2015 2:46 PM BST
get the dustybin thursday/friday v the weekend comparisons ready | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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TONITES TEE TIMES
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Late starters look as if they will be a couple of shots worse off if the breeze keeps up.
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Yeah, definitely quite a bit windier now. A few holes are very exposed, the 4th here being one of them.
Very doubtful anyone will get near DJs lead tonight. It would be a marvellous round to be 4 under now. Hopefully Jordan can manage it! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lingmerth off to a flyer. Quality player, he will be around leaderboards in Majors for quite a few years I reckon.
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-3/-4,s getting cut now as the -4,s will probably hold 2nd, the 17 and 18th particulary is a brute,more wind please.
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Not long to wait for the Harrington trademarks
 - the double bogey and the bogey six (at the second easiesthole  ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"6pts Villegas Top South American 13-82
How much does 1 point = to? as i said,i really dont think you know what you are at. Get in here Kelly and give me some pointers. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*13-8
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give me some pointers.
"3pts e.w Dustin Johnson 16-1" Not a bad pointer as the moment. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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As it happens it has been a simple tournament to "trade" on yesterday, despite some gowl commentator behind the red button being adamant a few times that the late starters had an advantage it was clear when mainstream coverage came on they were anything but, those that had finished were always nearly sure of maintaining their position. Lingmerth and Piercy were the only ones to buck that. You have no excuses Rat,you have to write out your own docket.
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There's not much more I can say about him after your post,
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At what point can we expect Dustin to implode? Will it be this evening or will he wait until the weekend?
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