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applehunter
11 Aug 15 20:32
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Date Joined: 07 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 1,875 | Blogger: applehunter's blog
Final major of the year.

Everything points towards bombers having a big advantage and that is how I am playing it.

Can see a leaderboard similar to Doral.
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Report callitasucit August 11, 2015 9:05 PM BST
I cant see beyond Spieth and DJ. I don't think I have ever backed DJ for a major before, and never thought I would until he won one, but this may be it.

Hills n Corals 8s on Jordan tomorrow. Hills have been top on the top 10/12 players for the past few majors on the Wednesday.
Report pa lapsy August 11, 2015 11:03 PM BST
On 2010 the leaderboard did look a bit lop-sided with the bombers though there was a smattering of short accurate off the tee up there as well,i leant that way myself.
I'm again with Bubba again,his 2nd there then and his consistency in the last few weeks is nearly sure to see him contend once again, not much on his price at 16/1 as so many near the front are very capable.
Long hitting Hail Marys for small,Holmes(170)Howell 111(660)M Jones(700)Palmer(320) and Tringale(660). Rest for I/R.
Speith with Mcilroy and Zach some grouping,not that i'd be interested but if someone told you 2 months ago that Rory would be 2/1 in a 3 ball you'd have got some looks.
Presume there will at least be some coverage before the advertised 7.00,whether holes or groups.
Last one was great viewing with a bunched leaderboard and a cracking course,odds on to be similar this week.
Report callitasucit August 11, 2015 11:40 PM BST
There prob be couple featured groups on red button each day. Tiger sure to be one of them Thursday.
Report applehunter August 11, 2015 11:44 PM BST
Its a major that has thorn up some funny ones over the years (YE Yang, Shaun Micheel) and there are some huge prices on the machine. Ryan Palmer caught my eye as well.

My main pics come from the top of the betting. Both players lack course form but have current form in their favour.

1. Louis Oostuizen 40/1 : Has a 2nd in US Open & in St. Andrews in his last 2 major starts. A relatively poor week in Firesone means we get a juicy 40/1. Ricky Fowler is half his price @ 20/1. Doesn't make sense to me.

2. Henrik Stenson 28/1 : From a pure stats point of view I'm on Stenson. No.1 for Ball striking and total driving will be key this week. Can't see him not involved.

Others considered ; Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jason Day

Bizmarks ; Rory @ 14s, Bubba 16s

Others backed

Charl Schwartzel 140, Martin Kaymer 85, Paul Casey 100

and at the Shaun Micheel level

Ryan Palmer 320, Daniel Berger 920, Jason Bohn 440
Report callitasucit August 11, 2015 11:50 PM BST
Kaymer is very big. I thought he played quite well last week.
Report callitasucit August 11, 2015 11:51 PM BST
Think Villegas a good bet for top South American. 13-8.

Grillo has potential, but this is out of his comfort zone at the moment. He is also quite a bit bigger than Camillo in the outright market.

Gomez has missed 6 of his last 7 cuts, and was nearly last in his completed event.

Villegas shot a best of the day 65 last Sunday, was top 10 here in 2010, pops up on leaderboards where he has previous, and consistently plays the tougher courses well for someone of his SP.

Odds on shot IMO.
Report applehunter August 12, 2015 12:00 AM BST
Good spot.
Report Over2.5 August 12, 2015 12:03 AM BST
keegan, charl and young fowler so far for me
Report kingrat August 12, 2015 12:20 AM BST
ye lads throw alot of darts.

"KR if its trades you're looking for, I have laid Jason Day at 15, Bubba at 17.5 and Brooks Koepka at 50 for next wk.

Still available. Not one of them will start that short."

atm on the exchange ,Day 13.5-1,Bubba 15.5-1,Koepka 49-1.

Is villegas a 5 pointer like Oostuizen was?

tbh,i dont think you know what you are at.
Report pa lapsy August 12, 2015 10:30 AM BST
They know their golf inside out Rat,better than me by far and always worth a listen.
Betfairs article in the news and tips section in regards approaching trading for this tournament is worth a read but as it is out in the public domain it won't be original,it basically says the last few holes on each side are tough.
Everyone has a different approach,75%ish of my betting bank for a tournament would be for in play or end of round, as it is often spontaneous on say something happening to a leader,a good shot,weather change,playing an easier part of course,a lot of reasons and by tournaments end could be a fairly significant number of backs and lays,i,d imagine i wouldn't be alone.
Thurs/Fri are usually a level playing field but that changes in the weekend as some have faster feeds etc.
Kelly gave ya a correct answer to your question on another thread imo,if you combined that with "backing"as well as laying on higher liquidity tournaments you wouldn't go far wrong,you have to find the key yourself really as it often comes down to your own perception of "value".
Report anfeild August 12, 2015 4:50 PM BST
Final major of the year and should be a cracker. A lot of the top player's in form. A case can be made for so many.

Bubba 14/1 win - Beaten in a playoff last time it was here and in great form.

Kaymer 50/1 win - Won last time on this track. If this was not at this course i would be put off. His form compared to the top players this year is not great but 50/1 i think is a good price.

Robert Streb - 80/1 e/w bet - Having a very consistent season. Fifth last week. 11th in greens in regulation which i think will be a factor this week. His scramblin is ok (70th) and he is long off the tee(42nd).

Bernd Weisberger - 175/1 e/w bet - 17th on the european tour in greens in reg. Long enough off tee 39th. 14th in scrambling. Had a decent enough finish last week 25 and won the french open recently a difficult enough track.

As i said a good case can be made for so many. One other i considered backing was Stenson. However i normally only go each way over a certain price and at 28/1 i don't think a win only bet is value. Good luck with your bets should be cracking viewing.
Report newapproach August 12, 2015 6:04 PM BST
Jordan Spieth 7/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Steven Bowditch 175/1
Russell Henley 200/1

Good luck all
Report anfeild August 12, 2015 7:25 PM BST
Rat i only back the majors normally as i know all are trying. With golf espically the majors their are a lot in win a genuine chance. Some tracks suit some golfer's more than others. There is a lot of stats out their and i enjoy spending a bit of time on the majors. Have had some nice wins over the years. The golf stuff is one of the better things on this forum. Most tournaments unlike horse races have 150 plus runners so your normally going to pick a few. If you don't enjoy it don't read it. But pouring scorn over it for the sake of it makes no sense to me.
Report huddys August 12, 2015 8:09 PM BST
Going to be a cracking weeks golf ahead,
Main bet Jordan Spieth 7/1 e/w,gone in quite large,cannot see him not challenging come sunday night,

Second bet,Fowler betting w/o Jordan and Rory e/w 14/1,will love the conditions and with the wind likely to play it part over the four days,you need a good player that can handle theses conditions,Fowler is one of the best wind players around,

Last bet going to do a super yankee for the interest,

Rose top English player 2/1,
Jimenez top senior player 7/4,
Day top Oz player 11/10,
Villegas top South American player 6/4,
Lingmerth top Swedish player 13/8
Report callitasucit August 12, 2015 11:51 PM BST
If this years event is as good as last years epic, it will be some viewing. With all the big names in form, and a returning Rory, the pieces are in place for another cracker.

Jordan Spieth has been absolutely superb this year. He has really grasped the nettle in the  majors, and only a 3 putt on 17 at St Andrews deprived him the chance of coming here in search of an unprecedented Grand Slam.

He is the type of player and person who will use that loss as motivation to put things right this week, and I think he is going to take a hell of a lot beating. I will be surprised if whoever beats Jordan this week isn't holding the trophy come Sunday evening.

He had a lovely run out last week in the Bridgestone. Not quite in the heat of battle, but playing well enough on a course that doesn't suit, to suggest the A Game is ready and waiting. He is an unbelievable competitor, that refuses to be beaten, and seems to haul himself back form any bogeys with a barrage of birdies. The amount of time he birdie his final hole is ridiculous, and its that winners never say attitude, which is the difference between winning multiple majors and being a nearly man.

I have read in places that the course length is against him. I cant have that. Plenty of shorter hitters were right on the fringes here in 2010, and Jordan is not exactly short. Chambers Bay was quite a similar test, and we all know what happened there.

What 2010 did give us, was a leaderboard full of class, and I believe the cream will rise to the top again. I don't think we will get a Rich Beem style result this year.

Quite simply, I cant see Jordan not contending, and going mighty close. One slight worry, but given his strong mind its only very slight, is that he is in the Rory 3 ball. It may be a bit of a circus.

I have never backed Dusty Johnson for a major before, he isn't really my cup of tea. He seems to blow so many opportunities, and not just choke close to the line, but simply disappear from trace and ruin any place part of the bet.

But though he performed his party piece again at St Andrews having had the halfway lead, something tells me he may battle to the line here. This place owes him one. Sportsmen can get inspiration from strabge places, and I really believe what happened DJ here in 2010 will help him to get over the line here. A bit of a 'F*ck You ' attitude can keep his mind from wandering.

He was brutal over the weekend in Firestone, but once he lost his chance early on Saturday, I doubt he really bothered too much after that. All focus would have moved to this week. He has never really played well at last weeks venue, an all that display has done, is increased his price. I don't think for one minute, his chances of winning this week have diminished.

Again, like Spieth, he showed how much these linksy style venues suit him at Chambers, and again at St Andrews. He is now a bigger price than Bubba, who was over twice his price 7 days ago. A huge over reaction to their relative chances imo.

You could make a case for all the big names at the head of the market, but these two are the ones I feel may separate themselves form the rest.

Martin Kaymer took advantage of DJs final hole woes here in 2010, and he seems over priced to be collecting another Major trophy in a few days time. A poor start in the British Open cost him any chance, but he finished very well, and will rightly fancy his chances here. Like Spieth, he has an iron will, and if he can get in the mix over the weekend, he wont step aside lightly.

Brandt Snedeker and Branden Grace completed my staking.

Sned is shorter than what might seem the ideal type for here, but Im not too sure its a real bombers paradise. The forecast is good, and the fairways will be firm and fast. The likes of Snedeker will be able to compete.

Grace excelled himself at Chambers Bay, and was probably unlucky not to at least force a playoff. He will relish this test.

As said in an earlier post, I think Villegas is a cracking bet for Top South American.

I was going to have a cut on Pod for Top Irish, but the knee injury, and apparent extent of it has diluted my enthusiasm there.

6pts e.w Jordan Spieth 8-1
3pts e.w Dustin Johnson 16-1
.6pt e.w Martin Kaymer 66-1
.5pt e.w Branden Grace 80-1
.3pt Snedeker @ 120/.4pt Top 5 @ 17.5

6pts Villegas Top South American 13-8

Good Luck all.
Report callitasucit August 13, 2015 12:12 AM BST
Dabbled in a few 3 balls, doing 4 timers and up.

Villegas, Kjeldsen, Monty, Singh, Matsuyama and Lingmerth.
Report easygold August 13, 2015 11:24 AM BST
Rory Sabbatini 1000/1, 100/1 Top 5,40/1 Top 10,12/1 Top 20/1... 14/1 Top S.African.... 250/1 Ist Rnd Leader........ and Jason Dufner 220/1... that will do me until Sunday morning.
Report callitasucit August 13, 2015 11:25 AM BST
Very tempted to add Dufner myself.
Report easygold August 13, 2015 11:41 AM BST
Betvictor??? I had 25 e/way at 250/1 on Rory Sab 1st round leader.... my 1st ever golf bet with them....... eh 125/1 now..... Has Rory got four-legs and a tail????
Report pa lapsy August 13, 2015 11:52 AM BST
A leg and a half maybe, yeah wondered about that 3 ball with Spieth myself,could be a bit of a circus indeed and Spieth is fairly tempermental as well,on the flip side there is an element surely with the no 1 question and no doubt he will be bustin a gut for that.
Report frank60 August 13, 2015 12:18 PM BST
Adam Scott 38/1 ,y.e.yang 1000/1,SANG MOON BAH 980/1,TYRELL HATTON 840/1, Rafa Cabrera-Bello 590/1 ,And Eddie Pepperell 810/1 a good outsider.IM Forever The Optimist lads.Happy good luck
Report pa lapsy August 13, 2015 1:03 PM BST
Good start for ya Easygold Sabba birdies first.
Report easygold August 13, 2015 1:14 PM BST
Stop the fight.......
Report pa lapsy August 13, 2015 1:23 PM BST
haha, -2 now, official Uspga site way ahead of pga.com and shottracker legacy,has a shot tracker also.
Report easygold August 13, 2015 1:31 PM BST
Yeah they are way ahead..... he just needs to keep it going..... but the anger he has when he gets a bogey.... usually adds more bogeys... he had 5 brides on the second day here in 2010 so a low round is in him if he keeps the head
Report callitasucit August 13, 2015 5:04 PM BST
Yet another fast start in a major for DJ.

What does he do form here??!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan August 13, 2015 7:06 PM BST
donny osmond  • August 13, 2015 2:46 PM BST 
get the dustybin thursday/friday v the weekend comparisons ready
Report Catch Me ifyoucan August 13, 2015 7:12 PM BST
TONITES TEE TIMES

    19:00        Shawn Stefani (6/4)        Cameron Smith (8/5)        Hiroshi Iwata (3)   
    19:00        Patrick Reed (11/8)        Luke Donald (2)        Graeme McDowell (9/4)   
    19:10        Henrik Stenson (13/8)        Adam Scott (15/8)        Brooks Koepka (12/5)   
    19:10        David Lingmerth (5/4)        Kevin Streelman (5/2)        Sang-Moon Bae (5/2)   
    19:20        Jordan Spieth (13/10)        Rory McIlroy (9/5)        Zach Johnson (3)   
    19:20        Russell Knox (7/4)        Alexander Levy (19/10)        Troy Merritt (9/4)   
    19:30        Billy Horschel (1)        M-A Jimenez (5/2)        Tim Clark (3)   
    19:30        Phil Mickelson (11/8)        Jason Dufner (2)        Padraig Harrington (5/2)   
    19:40        Danny Willett (13/10)        John Senden (9/4)        Cameron Tringale (5/2)   
    19:40        Kevin Na (10/11)        Eddie Pepperell (13/8)        Sean Dougherty (10)   
    19:50        Marc Leishman (11/10)        Kevin Kisner (6/5)        Ben Polland (10)   
    19:50        Jason Bohn (4/5)        Marcel Siem (2)        Omar Uresti (8)   
    20:00        Richie Ramsay (4/5)        Nick Taylor (13/8)        Dan Venezio (8)   
    20:00        Scott Piercy (11/10)        Andy Sullivan (6/5)        Alan Morin (17/2)   
Report pa lapsy August 13, 2015 8:03 PM BST
Late starters look as if they will be a couple of shots worse off if the breeze keeps up.
Report callitasucit August 13, 2015 8:18 PM BST
Yeah, definitely quite a bit windier now. A few holes are very exposed, the 4th here being one of them.

Very doubtful anyone will get near DJs lead tonight. It would be a marvellous round to be 4 under now. Hopefully Jordan can manage it!
Report callitasucit August 13, 2015 8:19 PM BST
Lingmerth off to a flyer. Quality player, he will be around leaderboards in Majors for quite a few years I reckon.
Report pa lapsy August 13, 2015 8:27 PM BST
-3/-4,s getting cut now as the -4,s will probably hold 2nd, the 17 and 18th particulary is a brute,more wind please.
Report Vubiant August 13, 2015 11:36 PM BST
Not long to wait for the Harrington trademarks Sad- the double bogey and the bogey six (at the second easiest
hole Cry)
Report kingrat August 14, 2015 12:24 AM BST
"6pts Villegas Top South American 13-82

How much does 1 point = to?

as i said,i really dont think you know what you are at.

Get in here Kelly and give me some pointers.
Report kingrat August 14, 2015 12:24 AM BST
*13-8
Report callitasucit August 14, 2015 10:17 AM BST
give me some pointers.

"3pts e.w Dustin Johnson 16-1"

Not a bad pointer as the moment.
Report pa lapsy August 14, 2015 11:43 AM BST
As it happens it has been a simple tournament to "trade" on yesterday, despite some gowl commentator behind the red button being adamant a few times that the late starters had an advantage it was clear when mainstream coverage came on they were anything but, those that had finished were always nearly sure of maintaining their position. Lingmerth and Piercy were the only ones to buck that. You have no excuses Rat,you have to write out your own docket.
Report huddys August 14, 2015 11:46 AM BST
There's not much more I can say about him after your post,
Report Clerkmore August 14, 2015 1:31 PM BST
At what point can we expect Dustin to implode? Will it be this evening or will he wait until the weekend?
Report kingrat August 14, 2015 6:05 PM BST
Will Villegas make the cut lads?
Report Clerkmore August 14, 2015 8:52 PM BST
Looks like tonight.
Report pa lapsy August 14, 2015 8:54 PM BST
A bit more patience Clerkmore Grin
Report Clerkmore August 14, 2015 9:28 PM BST
Armageddon is merely postponed, pa!
Report pa lapsy August 14, 2015 9:35 PM BST
He has/had a chance to put a bit of a cushion this evening but he doesn't look like taking it(there should be a special button though for golf where you can delete posts later) Rake of them in it now and a lot of cream,good viewing on a great course which rewards and punishes shots.
Report pa lapsy August 15, 2015 10:26 AM BST
Your Tony Finau(440) giving ya a nice run in this Workrider,Jones and Holmes doing well for me, we have a bit of a shout.
Report workrider August 15, 2015 2:00 PM BST
Yes Pa , 6- for his round so far .
Report kingrat August 15, 2015 2:09 PM BST
Has Dustin shot his bolt?I am glad i didn't lay Day.
Report frank60 August 15, 2015 2:20 PM BST
Good luck with your bets PA and W/R, hope you can both lay your bets with a profit in mind come the last day,.... as for my bets  Cry
Report kingrat August 15, 2015 4:28 PM BST
So?old pa and Wonks are the shrewdies on the auld golf.mmmmmmmmmmmmm, interesting!
Report pa lapsy August 15, 2015 5:15 PM BST
Thanks Frank,welcome back,long long way to go but getting buzzy with this.
I,m no shrewdie Rat,don't be looking for a reaction, go and have a beer and watch the golf for yourself.
Report kingrat August 15, 2015 6:05 PM BST
tbf Pa ,i am only looking for some inside dope from a shrewdie,someone that knows what they are at.As far as i am concerned,it's all about profit.Good luck to you and Wonks with your selections.You have read my mind,I will be going on the beer tonight.
Report anfeild August 15, 2015 10:34 PM BST
Leaderboard getting crowded. Its such a great looking course.
Report workrider August 15, 2015 10:37 PM BST
Pa have greened up , layed him at 13/1 , still win a nice few quid if he wins..
Report pa lapsy August 15, 2015 10:55 PM BST
I had a chance to there before that last tee shot WR, but whether it goes the same way as el gran senor or davids lad(03 national) i had me mind made up to leave it,forecast wind might change my mind though but leave tonight go.
Report pa lapsy August 15, 2015 11:13 PM BST
Oh for feck sake Laugh
Report frank60 August 16, 2015 12:33 AM BST
Pa i just  put a bet at 23/1 on Finau, having said that Jason Day looks like he will have to get one of his Acrophobia attacks to stop him [the guy is playing some golf]
Report frank60 August 16, 2015 12:39 AM BST
OPS double/bogey spoke to soon, sry jason
Report pa lapsy August 16, 2015 12:42 AM BST
Your all right Frank,keep going,have to get out a bit now as too many in it,a bird here please MJ.
Report frank60 August 16, 2015 12:47 AM BST
MAYBE the best golf tournement this year, wonderful to watch
Report pa lapsy August 16, 2015 12:49 AM BST
Some golf alright,the amount of birds and eagle chances earlier were unreal,Speith very unlucky that he had the afternoon start thurs,he would be hosing up.
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 1:01 AM BST
Jordan once again shows his unbelievable will with yet another final hole birdie. Jesus I love this lad.

Its going to be some day tomorrow. Like last year, the best major of the year. Some leaderboard.
Report huddys August 16, 2015 1:02 AM BST
What a back 9 by Jordan,
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 1:13 AM BST
Day....Spieth...Rose...Grace...Kaymer.....what a fu**in leaderboard!!
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 1:14 AM BST
Only missing the TigerWink
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 1:20 AM BST
Some bounceback from Day. Quality viewing.
Report anfeild August 16, 2015 2:00 AM BST
Speith is a machine. Going to be great day tomorrow. Speith has got the tiger will to win but he seems so laid back. So many good top players are the moment. I always taught tiger would get back and win another major now i don't think so. To many good players.
Report frank60 August 16, 2015 1:24 PM BST
There may be a lot more wind for the last few groups of players, it could make for a surprise winner just of the pace.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan August 16, 2015 4:08 PM BST
IF Ryan More can start -5thru5 THEN SO CAN RORY.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan August 16, 2015 4:09 PM BST
unfortunately so can SUPERMAN Devil
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 7:24 PM BST
Really looking forward to this.

Hopefully we have some drama. Unless Day gets off to a hot start and runs away with it, it looks sure to be close.

Spieth, Grace, Kaymer or DJ please!!

Of the 4 would prefer Spieth or Kaymer. Two absolute class acts, on and off the course.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y August 16, 2015 7:28 PM BST
didn't take long for DJ to fack any chance he had up
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 7:28 PM BST
It wont be DJ!!
Report callitasucit August 16, 2015 9:13 PM BST
Very impressive start from the Big 2. Day answering every big putt from Jordan. Its going to take a massive effort to haul him in from here the way he is playing.
Report workrider August 16, 2015 9:49 PM BST
Thank God for that , was out for 9 holes last night and did exactly what Jason did ,makes it easier to take...Cool
Report kingrat August 17, 2015 12:02 AM BST
Great stuff from Day,I always liked the cut of his jib.

Carnage for the Day layers,obviously they dont know what they are at.
Report Kelly August 17, 2015 1:17 AM BST
Just back after 9 days in  The Kingdom , only saw the last 5 holes of play . Day was very impressive as was Spieth . Love that course . No bets unfortunately , no real access to internet . Most of the fancied guys played well , could have been a good tournament for those backing the in form players .
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