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roadrunner46
17 Apr 15 13:14
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Date Joined: 25 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 9,114 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog
BARCELONA 6/4 (CL)
NAPOLI 7/4 (EL)

ive seen enough of this seasons contenders, and these two look the most likely winners now IMO

double pays 6/1 goodluck

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Replies: 58
By:
roadrunner46
When: 04 May 15 20:53
what a massive market move for barcelona home win tomoro, nearly a 30% move. thats the stuff those football traders dream of. Wink
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 May 15 01:26
Barca playing like a dream at mo. Would love to see them put on a serious show.
By:
frank60
When: 05 May 15 11:44
They looked very good Callit, wonderful Players up front;The match will also be special for Barcelona playmaker Lionel Messi, who will make his 100th European appearance for the club.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 05 May 15 11:59
Fancy Madrid to Win to Nil tonight, 4/1 + on here.

All Spansh final on the cards.
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 May 15 12:10
Surprised Juve are favs tonight. I would have expected RM to be about 2.6. 3.05 currently....looks v big.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 May 15 12:12
Think Barca look by far the best in it now as well,look a decent ht/ft tomorrow at a shade over 6/4,did double Real for a small stake db also tonight but hopeful rather than confident there though i think they could boss Juventus who haven't really impressed me.
By:
neill d
When: 05 May 15 12:20
Get with Real as well lads, Tevez is on his own up there and can't see them scoring either, Real will.
By:
frank60
When: 05 May 15 14:00
I got Barca to win 2-0 here at 9/1, B Munich have a few of there best players i cant see them getting a result ... Real Madrid to win 2-1 at 12/1 is a fair bet as they are excellent at the counter/attacking game.. as Ozy says an all Spanish final,
By:
reb
When: 05 May 15 14:09
Everyone seems to be writing off the Germans
By:
kavvie
When: 05 May 15 14:41
id say the under 1.5 goals is the way to go in the juve game.italian mentality will be defensive and real might be happy enuf with a 1/0 either way..
By:
workrider
When: 05 May 15 18:09
Have backed Real myself 3.05.. , but my record is not great recently...
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 May 15 18:29
Tis a near unanimous choice,the price looks crazy and begs the question what you're missing,is it going to be a scrappy cynical game? or are they both seemingly be happy with the draw? Always like Neill's views on the football and his mention of just Tevez up front had me in the mind that Real may very well dominate possession.
Hopefully the Irish forum is kickin as$ tonight.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 05 May 15 18:40
You da man, Lapsy!

Naked Congo at Full Time.
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 May 15 18:51
Laid Juve at 2.72.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 May 15 18:53
That's up to yerselves,i'm not able to throw the shapes these days.
By:
frank60
When: 05 May 15 20:35
H/TIME  1-1  GREAT GAME OF FOOTBALL,HOPE THE 2ND HALF IS A GOOD.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 May 15 21:37
What a dose. Well deserved for Juventus,Real were just disappointing,mainly poor passing with Ramos the main culprit and a complete no show by Bale. Real when behind had no idea whatsoever how to even try to break down an admittely a very strong defence.
By:
frank60
When: 05 May 15 21:38
Well done Juv.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 05 May 15 21:38
Congo officially cancelled.

An expensive evening, Gentlemen.
By:
neill d
When: 05 May 15 21:53
sore one for me lads..... Juve a better side than I thought. Would ye still fancy Real to progress? I nearly would. I thought real were a lot better at the back than they actually were. Would like to see grab hold of the thing more as well.
By:
neill d
When: 05 May 15 21:55
than they actually are*

Benzema was a big miss as well, knits it together up front. Ronaldo and him link so well. Thought they'd still have well enough.
By:
neill d
When: 05 May 15 22:05
In hindsight, was the price based around the fact that there was always the certainty that Juve would be very well-coached and play in a really professional manner and that Real with there more erratic characters and laissez-faire regime(no criticism of Carlo) were always prone to doing something stupid?

it is something I completely overlooked, anyway.
By:
mincer11
When: 05 May 15 22:22
Juventus are useless and cannot win the champions league. Soccer is a foolish betting medium, penalties and red cards decide too many games, as it did this one. Impossible to bet on something as volatile as this sport.
By:
kavvie
When: 05 May 15 22:33
agree with mincer...sadly for me
By:
dj876
When: 05 May 15 22:41
The variance between what you perceive as the correct probability and the odds available must be minimal in such liquid markets.

Over a large sample size,the percentage of times you have to be correct to consistently make profit at football must be extremely high?

Is all the information not publicly available to mass audiences,I can't see how it's possible to have a distinct edge on top tier football.

If there is 40 million matched on a champions league event,can you really know that much more than the market?

Obviously there will be plenty of occasions where you're correct but the margin/edge has to be minuscule over a significant sample size?

Far from an expert on football betting but the above would be my instinctive thoughts.

Pre-match trading is possibly different but probably driven by release of information
By:
workrider
When: 05 May 15 22:45
Heard on BBC Radio last sunday that ,wait for it , between 8 to 10 BILLION thats correct , can be punted on ONE Premiership came by the Asians...Incredible ..
By:
kavvie
When: 05 May 15 22:54
65 million stg bet on an ireland world cup cricket match on here that most of ireland didnt know was even on...asia is where the big bucks are
By:
neill d
When: 05 May 15 22:55
You'd be right DJ, you'd want to be right well in excess of 50% of the time at the prices I often play at. But I think you'd find as well that there is a pretty big recency bias. I thought arsenal went off at a pretty backable price last night based on what Hull had done to Liverpool and crystal Palace, but Arsenal were an altogether slicker outfit than those 2 and the likes of Quinn and Meyler had none of the tools (craft or athleticism) to cope with Cazorla who lorded it.

I think there is a lot put into recent form and home advantage, but wherever that went off last night, the two Irish lads in the middle were going to struggle.

I thought Madrid played like idiots tonight at times, but I thought having won it last season.... maybe they might have matured as in terms of football skill, they'd have every quality you'd want to cope with Juve bar maybe Hernandez up front. But then I didn't see what Paulie saw.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 05 May 15 23:10
What currency is that Wonks?  10,000 million what?

I like football betting, 3 possible outcomes, everyone trying.  All information in public domain.

As regards an edge, well......maybe not......but then I am not competing against people with an edge either  ..... so at least I feel I have a chance of coming out ahead.  I'll take my chances and back my judgement in what is a relatively efficient market.

I know in horse racing that I have a negative edge...without any connections....I have no idea what horses are trying, I have no idea if they are fit (without being at track) and i have no idea if they are training well at home.  Factor in the fact that they are animals and therefore unpredictable, I would perceive myself as having no chance of coming out ahead.  Now granted you can choose your races to eliminate some of these drawbacks...but even still....
By:
roadrunner46
When: 05 May 15 23:27
must be impossible for me too, never watch any horse racesLaugh yet i can find winner after winner, must be ST ANTHONY helping me out all the time.Laugh
By:
roadrunner46
When: 05 May 15 23:28
ANTHONY PATRON SAINT of finding thingsCool
By:
dj876
When: 05 May 15 23:34
^^^

How do you answer that? I shall retreat to the cot.Best of luck chaps.

Few interesting races at Chester coming up over the next couple of days (still a bit early though imo for the flat),Giovanni Canaletto doesn't run as scoped badly on Monday according to AOB on Monday (ATR)
By:
callitasucit
When: 05 May 15 23:35
Anthony be better off looking for his fuc kin marbles.
By:
neill d
When: 05 May 15 23:43
Can't wait to see Sir Isaac Newton. Could well be the best of all of em' by Derby day not to mind late summer. I thought he would be the miler and they keep talking about how quick he isGrin, in the interview early season AOB said that he didn't think Highland Reel would get much further than 8f which I was really surprised at. He's in France at the weekend it seems.

Noted that Gary O'Brien didn't get to ask Aidan about John F Kennedy at the Curragh over the weekend. There is so little about him since the blow out it is like he doesn't exist.

They don't run much in the Dante so that must be a negative for Ol' Man River.

Presume it is still JFK for the Derrinstown but they didn't make as many excuses for him as I'd thought and haven't since.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 06 May 15 10:38
Agree with you Paulie to an extent with football as a betting medium,the fact that in this day and age that a video replay isn't employed is mind boggling,personally find gaa worse though with a ref doing his utmost to level a game very often.
Agree also there is usually little edge with football markets and are priced right generally,different certainly to early horse markets where it often isn't the case.
Thik it is just the simple fact that Real under performed last night,up to then they were playing well in the CL,the header hitting the crossbar was the pivotal point in the match,doubt Juve would have won as they would have to chase the game,Real would have been "lucky" anyway.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 06 May 15 10:54
juventus been unbeatble at home for nearly two seasons, have they only lost one of their last 50 games played at home, taken aback by the over
enthusiastic support for real madrid last night, the italians dont roll over for anyone on their own territory. clue to last nights match was
the QF'S games against A MADRID. their was enough evidence over those two legs to prove that real madrid are a team that can be nullifiedWink
By:
mincer11
When: 06 May 15 11:32
And there is even more evidence that you yourself deserve to be nullified.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 06 May 15 11:42
you have been put through the mincerLaugh which other usernames do you go by? seems lot of people on here have multiple personalities, now fcuk off you gobshoiteWink
By:
mincer11
When: 06 May 15 11:44
Thank god theres only one of you roadrunner, and as far im concerned theres going to be none of you from now on,as im just about to block you for life.
See you in the next life roadie,and try and keep yourself out of them institutions.
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