Tramore Experiment

That is a good idea,put me down.

BAD WEATHER THURS FRI  MEANS  ID BE KEEN TO SPEND TIME AND STUDY  BUT HAPPY TO LET ANY POSTER TAKE MY PLACE AS LOT BETTER JUDGES ON HERE STREETS AHEAD OF ME 

AND LETS HAVE ONE THREAD WITHOUT THE USUAL slobbering

ROYAL ACADEMY ONLY USE ME IF YOU REAL STUCK  AND GOOD LUCK

Surely someone else is interested in this?
The fact it is only 3 horses won't be too time consuming, an essay i don,t think is expected and a good opportunity to see another persons way of looking at things. Given it is a low rated handicap it is possible to get the unexpected and whatever the pre race opinion reasoning no one would be surprised by an odd result.
By far one of the beter threads to appear on here for a while imo and a bit of a pity to leave it pass without a go off it.

ill have a go lads with 3 horses..im working nights but ill do my best..

I would be happy to assist.

five on board.....just one more?

thanks to everyone so far...one way or another I will dole out the horses later this evening

Put me in, this is an interesting project.

Great thread lads,Will keep an eye on proceedings with interest.

RA      IF ANYONE ELSE JOINS IN FEEL FREE drop ME   .GOOD LUCK

anyone take norn's place before 9pm when I allocate gee gees? just three each-shouldn't be over taxing....................

I'll have a go ...

if theres another wants to do it?(pa?)  ill give way..im easy either way

2m5f 80-109 handicap at Tramore, saturday @ 1.55pm (18 entered - max run 16) Going: yielding but very heavy rain forecast

Kavvie (or replacement)
1 Claire Pet
7 Perrie Hill
13 Eshtiall

Kitty Wells
2 Mini Vic
8 The Bold Beckey
14 Ballyfinboy

Pa Lapsy
3 Zekarya
9 Shaiyzar
15 All Honours

Workrider
4 Halling’s Treasure
10 Budtairis
16 West Ship Master

Royal Academy
5 Norah Star
11 Hard Bought
17 Ice Princess

The Gotchee
6 Indian Fairy
12 Drive On Locky
18 Udo’s Choice

Please try to have something by 10pm Friday night. I will post a summary and other potshots welcome. I will also do market update on saturday by 1.00pm

Aim to find the contenders. Good luck.

ok ill get working tomoro

Zekarya;
Some negatives first,hasn't run well after a break,lacks gears but plugs on,really seems a heavy ground horse.
Amongst the positives a stone better off than his chase rating,and ran good races off this mark in the past.Ran well over course(ch)
Thought good enough to run in a 33k grade B chase he ran with credit to be 4th btn 23L and had some higher rated horses behind.Followed that up ith another good run at Gowran nicely clear off 4th and finished up with a disappointing final run last season.
Can't dismiss him,my feeling is he will want the run and off 3lb lower last year fairly sure he would have won at Limericks Christmas meeting last year and that might be the plan again.
With Hogan a watch on the day with the market is needed.
Shaiyzar;
Even taking into account it is 27lb better off(inc claim) for 25L and seemed to have sweated up to me in the race won The Bould Beckey,he finished weakly and has been well beaten since.Dismissed.
All Honours;
Dismissing his last run as was always in an impossible position,the weight change around on the Clonmel run is very interesting,on the provisio Crimin is used on The Bould Beckey make it 15lb for 10L', emphathic for TBBeckey that day,All Honours did stay on well enough. Before that ran a solid race behind Stop Road Lad. 20 runs and only win came over course and distance.
Of the 3 All Honours would be the one i'd probably be most interested in,ought to be a decent price and maybe place prospects,do also respect some of Zerkaya,s form but gut feeling is possibly Limerick next time.

Thats me ecka done,hopefully i'm not too far out from the general idea you are looking for.

I can't wait to see the outcome of this!!!

INDIAN FAIRY
This mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.

DRIVE ON LOCKY
This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.
UDO’S CHOICE
The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

MINI VIC
One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

THE BOLD BECKEY
One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.

BALLYFINBOY
A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.

Kavvie (or replacement)
1 Claire Pet
7 Perrie Hill
13 Eshtiall

Kitty Wells
2 Mini Vic
8 The Bold Beckey
14 Ballyfinboy

Pa Lapsy
3 Zekarya NR
9 Shaiyzar
15 All Honours NR

Workrider
4 Halling’s Treasure
10 Budtairis
16 West Ship Master NR

Royal Academy
5 Norah Star NR
11 Hard Bought NR
17 Ice Princess NR

The Gotchee
6 Indian Fairy
12 Drive On Locky
18 Udo’s Choice

As luck would have it, I have no runner so I will start an overall review of the race taking into account what's posted so far. I had two of the three horses researched and, to do it accurately, takes a long time.

Kavvie, I'll take Claire Pet to help you out.

Claire Pet: 7yo g by Pierre 11-12 (OR 107)

A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonable after his early exit in Clonmel.

PERRIE HILL   runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here.last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit.he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths.live chance.
ESHTIALL   what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will preceed a win if theres going to be a win)

Hallings  Treasure a 4 yo been asked to give weight to all bar two of these , been dropped 10lb since march ..His one win came in a 12 fur race in England for Balding , bought for good money ,unusual for Giggy to buy off the flat ..First time out here showed up really well and finished 2nd to a well regarded one of Mullins ,his form has dropped alarmingly since  that run  ,imo and he has become a liability , he's been beaten over 118 lts in his last four completed starts ,and has also fallen over hurdles at Wexford  ..Maybe the return of Davy , who got him jumping if nothing else might help his cause , distance wise he should have no problem ..I feel a lot of this fellows problems are in his head , they have tried headgear to no avail ,but I do know they thought a lot of this fellow ,plus the fact they are perservering with him is worth nothing ..Having said all that , can see this fellow run a big race tomorrow.....
Budtairs ..A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95..

Whats the verdict, RA?  We will watch this one tomorrow with heightened interest!

Well done to all (2 notable and predictable exceptions) for making an effort with presentation, which makes such a difference.

Enjoyed others thoughts on this and was impressed,fair play.

An early show from a leading book;

The Bold Beckey 3/1,Perrie Hill 5/1,Hallings Treasure 11/2,Indian Fairy 6/1,Estiaal 8/1,
Mini Vic 10/1,Budtairis 12/1,Shaiyzar 14/1, Claire Pet,Ballyfinboy,Drive On Locky 16/1,
Udos Choice 20/1. All quoted.

great read this..welldone to all..

YES EXCELLENT WORK ALL INVOLVED

BE SHOCKED IF ELLIOT WAS TRYING WITH ESTHIALL(MIGHT  BE DOWN ROYAL HORSE FOR BOXIN DAY )TOO  BEAT HIS TOP OWNER GIGGY  HALLINGS TREASURE ?

TWO I LIKE IS MINI VIC  AND

BUDTARIS FOR LOCAL MAN JOHNATAN FLANAGAN (MOSCOW MANNON)

I think Borussia is a fantastic each way bet in second race, I like the look of perrie hill in 1 55, maybe a few quid on company calling in 2 25.

Good luck all.

Backed Borussia last time and didnt think it saw it out.  Tramore is deceptively testing!

Leahy has a good record at tramore.. always worth following at any price

Make it a two horse race with Leahys and Fort Carson.

Well done all,interesting to see Russells effort today in the Giggy silks,I like Beckys Star and Borussia myself but it's wide open,course form a big plus here imho.

My conclusion and it isn't very strong is considering the weights turnaround with The Bold Beckey and had Indian Fairy a dozen or so lengths behind Perrie Hill should surely seem to be involved and looks the solid choice to be placed at least.

Zekarya runs at Navan tomorrow so will get a chance to see how my synopsis on him was.

Surprised you left Mis Faithful out in that race BWS,she was cruising turning in and looks to hold Fort Carson,open race though.

certain posting issues for some reason (altho I guess why), hopefully this works...

Claire Pet:
A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire Pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonal after his early exit in Clonmel.

MINI VIC
One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

Added: won a Thurles maiden hurdle but needed to drop 11lbs to 98 before she collected her first handicap hurdle although she did need a wind operation to return to her best so could easily be ahead of the handicapper - has even run well since on marks of 104 and 108. I thought she ran a cracker on her seasonal reappearance at Navan against far better rivals and a mark of 106 gives her a serious chance tomorrow. My idea of horse with best chance and price might be okay.

Halling’s Treasure
Hallings  Treasure a 4 yo been asked to give weight to all bar two of these , been dropped 10lb since march ..His one win came in a 12 fur race in England for Balding , bought for good money ,unusual for Giggy to buy off the flat ..First time out here showed up really well and finished 2nd to a well regarded one of Mullins ,his form has dropped alarmingly since  that run  ,imo and he has become a liability , he's been beaten over 118 lts in his last four completed starts ,and has also fallen over hurdles at Wexford  ..Maybe the return of Davy , who got him jumping if nothing else might help his cause , distance wise he should have no problem ..I feel a lot of this fellows problems are in his head , they have tried headgear to no avail ,but I do know they thought a lot of this fellow ,plus the fact they are perservering with him is worth nothing ..Having said all that , can see this fellow run a big race tomorrow.....

Added: difficult to sum up but a mark of 109 and 4lbs age allowance gives this horse a chance if he ever turns up and reproduces past form in maiden hurdles. However, five losses starting at 9/4 or less tells its own sorry tale and has already failed to land a soft 2m maiden here last April. Impossible to back and likely to start short again with the popular Youghal man on board. He may make the market.


INDIAN FAIRY
This mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.
Added: they persevered with this lassie in the summer until she won a maiden hurdle here over the trip in August on good ground and after a heavy ground win in a mares’ beginners’ chase it seems she prefers the softer option. Doyle has expressed the view that his suspects Tramore might be too sharp for her and she has that bad fall and two recent poor handicap hurdling runs to overcome. The Waterford punters will probably go for her which may offer value elsewhere.

PERRIE HILL   
runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here. last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit. he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths .live chance.
Added: still a maiden after 10 hurdling starts (14 in all) and a record of blinkers and cheek pieces adding to three handicap hurdle seconds might tell its own tale-all off lower marks than today’s 101. He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.

THE BOLD BECKEY
One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.
Added: she looked a mid-80’s mare for much of the last year and the question is: can she continue her advancement on what is still a decent mark of 99. The form of her races, particularly her C&D win in October reads well and she couldn’t have been in better form. A seven-pound claim takes her weight below 11-00. Likely to be close to favourite and possibly worthy of a saver.

Shaiyzar:
Even taking into account it is 27lb better off(inc claim) for 25L and seemed to have sweated up to me in the race won The Bould Beckey,he finished weakly and has been well beaten since. Dismissed.
Added: flopped for Halford and wore all the paraphernalia-didn’t help. Presumably cost tuppence-hapenny and will be doing well to score over hurdles off an already too-high mark of 96 (although it has dropped from 100 already). Was a few quid about for it on its handicap at Clonmel bow two runs ago but was well behind The Bold Beckey (a 12lb swing shouldn’t count) and since beaten out of sight at Fairyhouse. Probably see some local money around on Saturday but he doesn’t rate for me.

Budtairis
A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95.

Added: a very modest pointer for Brian Hamilton all the owner’s novenas now lie on Henry’s shoulders. Off the track for over 2 years a comeback run at Fairyhouse qualifies him for a mark of 95 which gives him a chance at some stage. Could win for local stable with good record and the market might offer a clue but hard to get away from woeful pointing form at 5 & 6. They’re persevering because he’s a full-brother to six-time winner Moscow Mannon who De Bromhead is training currently.


DRIVE ON LOCKY
This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.
   
ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

UDO’S CHOICE
The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

Added: the Tramore run last April - finished 2nd - does catch the eye as Vasco Du Mee (3rd) has won a handicap off 107 for Gordon Elliott and Fast Exit (4th) has since won two races for Eoin Doyle at Downpatrick. Horse has run nowhere near this level since and last time out the usual “tp”! became “tb1” with blinkers fitted for the first time and horse made running for the first time ever but no really different result (45l 9/18). On the positive side, Enright, who was on board last April, rides again. The snippet of course form says he “can” win but it’s obviously taking a huge amount on trust. Betfair SP job maybe.

BALLYFINBOY
A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.
Added: horse’s previous wins were directly as a result of “running into form” and he hasn’t run well in 9 subsequent starts since that April Tramore chasing run which, incidentally, only featured 5 runners. On previous wins trainer always said he preferred better ground.

Weight stop-a-train selection: Mini Vic
Saver (save us all, lord have mercy): The Bold Beckey
Free Christmas: Udo’s Choice (no relation to snake oil salesman)

test

Claire Pet:

A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire Pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonal after his early exit in Clonmel.

MINI VIC

One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

Added: won a Thurles maiden hurdle but needed to drop 11lbs to 98 before she collected her first handicap hurdle although she did need a wind operation to return to her best so could easily be ahead of the handicapper - has even run well since on marks of 104 and 108. I thought she ran a cracker on her seasonal reappearance at Navan against far better rivals and a mark of 106 gives her a serious chance tomorrow. My idea of horse with best chance and price might be okay.

Halling’s Treasure

Hallings  Treasure a 4 yo been asked to give weight to all bar two of these , been dropped 10lb since march ..His one win came in a 12 fur race in England for Balding , bought for good money ,unusual for Giggy to buy off the flat ..First time out here showed up really well and finished 2nd to a well regarded one of Mullins ,his form has dropped alarmingly since  that run  ,imo and he has become a liability , he's been beaten over 118 lts in his last four completed starts ,and has also fallen over hurdles at Wexford  ..Maybe the return of Davy , who got him jumping if nothing else might help his cause , distance wise he should have no problem ..I feel a lot of this fellows problems are in his head , they have tried headgear to no avail ,but I do know they thought a lot of this fellow ,plus the fact they are perservering with him is worth nothing ..Having said all that , can see this fellow run a big race tomorrow.....

Added: difficult to sum up but a mark of 109 and 4lbs age allowance gives this horse a chance if he ever turns up and reproduces past form in maiden hurdles. However, five losses starting at 9/4 or less tells its own sorry tale and has already failed to land a soft 2m maiden here last April. Impossible to back and likely to start short again with the popular Youghal man on board. He may make the market.


INDIAN FAIRY

mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.

Added: they persevered with this lassie in the summer until she won a maiden hurdle here over the trip in August on good ground and after a heavy ground win in a mares’ beginners’ chase it seems she prefers the softer option. Doyle has expressed the view that his suspects Tramore might be too sharp for her and she has that bad fall and two recent poor handicap hurdling runs to overcome. The Waterford punters will probably go for her which may offer value elsewhere.

PERRIE HILL
   
runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here. last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit. he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths .live chance.
Added: still a maiden after 10 hurdling starts (14 in all) and a record of blinkers and cheek pieces adding to three handicap hurdle seconds might tell its own tale-all off lower marks than today’s 101. He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.

THE BOLD BECKEY

One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.
Added: she looked a mid-80’s mare for much of the last year and the question is: can she continue her advancement on what is still a decent mark of 99. The form of her races, particularly her C&D win in October reads well and she couldn’t have been in better form. A seven-pound claim takes her weight below 11-00. Likely to be close to favourite and possibly worthy of a saver.

Shaiyzar:

Even taking into account it is 27lb better off(inc claim) for 25L and seemed to have sweated up to me in the race won The Bould Beckey,he finished weakly and has been well beaten since. Dismissed.
Added: flopped for Halford and wore all the paraphernalia-didn’t help. Presumably cost tuppence-hapenny and will be doing well to score over hurdles off an already too-high mark of 96 (although it has dropped from 100 already). Was a few quid about for it on its handicap at Clonmel bow two runs ago but was well behind The Bold Beckey (a 12lb swing shouldn’t count) and since beaten out of sight at Fairyhouse. Probably see some local money around on Saturday but he doesn’t rate for me.

Budtairis

A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95.

Added: a very modest pointer for Brian Hamilton all the owner’s novenas now lie on Henry’s shoulders. Off the track for over 2 years a comeback run at Fairyhouse qualifies him for a mark of 95 which gives him a chance at some stage. Could win for local stable with good record and the market might offer a clue but hard to get away from woeful pointing form at 5 & 6. They’re persevering because he’s a full-brother to six-time winner Moscow Mannon who De Bromhead is training currently.


DRIVE ON LOCKY

This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.
   
ESHTIALL   

what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

UDO’S CHOICE

The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

Added: the Tramore run last April - finished 2nd - does catch the eye as Vasco Du Mee (3rd) has won a handicap off 107 for Gordon Elliott and Fast Exit (4th) has since won two races for Eoin Doyle at Downpatrick. Horse has run nowhere near this level since and last time out the usual “tp”! became “tb1” with blinkers fitted for the first time and horse made running for the first time ever but no really different result (45l 9/18). On the positive side, Enright, who was on board last April, rides again. The snippet of course form says he “can” win but it’s obviously taking a huge amount on trust. Betfair SP job maybe.

BALLYFINBOY

A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.
Added: horse’s previous wins were directly as a result of “running into form” and he hasn’t run well in 9 subsequent starts since that April Tramore chasing run which, incidentally, only featured 5 runners. On previous wins trainer always said he preferred better ground.

Weight stop-a-train selection: Mini Vic
Saver (save us all, lord have mercy): The Bold Beckey
Free Christmas: Udo’s Choice (no relation to snake oil salesman)

wont allow me post my detailed reply for some reason (thanks sinead/gerry)

conclusion: Mini Vic; Saver: The Bold B; Outsider: Udo's Choice

Claire Pet:
A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire Pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonal after his early exit in Clonmel.

MINI VIC
One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

Added: won a Thurles maiden hurdle but needed to drop 11lbs to 98 before she collected her first handicap hurdle although she did need a wind operation to return to her best so could easily be ahead of the handicapper - has even run well since on marks of 104 and 108. I thought she ran a cracker on her seasonal reappearance at Navan against far better rivals and a mark of 106 gives her a serious chance tomorrow. My idea of horse with best chance and price might be okay.

Halling’s Treasure
Hallings  Treasure a 4 yo been asked to give weight to all bar two of these , been dropped 10lb since march ..His one win came in a 12 fur race in England for Balding , bought for good money ,unusual for Giggy to buy off the flat ..First time out here showed up really well and finished 2nd to a well regarded one of Mullins ,his form has dropped alarmingly since  that run  ,imo and he has become a liability , he's been beaten over 118 lts in his last four completed starts ,and has also fallen over hurdles at Wexford  ..Maybe the return of Davy , who got him jumping if nothing else might help his cause , distance wise he should have no problem ..I feel a lot of this fellows problems are in his head , they have tried headgear to no avail ,but I do know they thought a lot of this fellow ,plus the fact they are perservering with him is worth nothing ..Having said all that , can see this fellow run a big race tomorrow.....

Added: difficult to sum up but a mark of 109 and 4lbs age allowance gives this horse a chance if he ever turns up and reproduces past form in maiden hurdles. However, five losses starting at 9/4 or less tells its own sorry tale and has already failed to land a soft 2m maiden here last April. Impossible to back and likely to start short again with the popular Youghal man on board. He may make the market.

INDIAN FAIRY
This mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.
Added: they persevered with this lassie in the summer until she won a maiden hurdle here over the trip in August on good ground and after a heavy ground win in a mares’ beginners’ chase it seems she prefers the softer option. Doyle has expressed the view that his suspects Tramore might be too sharp for her and she has that bad fall and two recent poor handicap hurdling runs to overcome. The Waterford punters will probably go for her which may offer value elsewhere.

PERRIE HILL   
runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here. last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit. he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths .live chance.
Added: still a maiden after 10 hurdling starts (14 in all) and a record of blinkers and cheek pieces adding to three handicap hurdle seconds might tell its own tale-all off lower marks than today’s 101. He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.

THE BOLD BECKEY
One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.
Added: she looked a mid-80’s mare for much of the last year and the question is: can she continue her advancement on what is still a decent mark of 99. The form of her races, particularly her C&D win in October reads well and she couldn’t have been in better form. A seven-pound claim takes her weight below 11-00. Likely to be close to favourite and possibly worthy of a saver.
Shaiyzar:
Even taking into account it is 27lb better off(inc claim) for 25L and seemed to have sweated up to me in the race won The Bould Beckey,he finished weakly and has been well beaten since. Dismissed.
Added: flopped for Halford and wore all the paraphernalia-didn’t help. Presumably cost tuppence-hapenny and will be doing well to score over hurdles off an already too-high mark of 96 (although it has dropped from 100 already). Was a few quid about for it on its handicap at Clonmel bow two runs ago but was well behind The Bold Beckey (a 12lb swing shouldn’t count) and since beaten out of sight at Fairyhouse. Probably see some local money around on Saturday but he doesn’t rate for me.
Budtairis
A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95.

Added: a very modest pointer for Brian Hamilton all the owner’s novenas now lie on Henry’s shoulders. Off the track for over 2 years a comeback run at Fairyhouse qualifies him for a mark of 95 which gives him a chance at some stage. Could win for local stable with good record and the market might offer a clue but hard to get away from woeful pointing form at 5 & 6. They’re persevering because he’s a full-brother to six-time winner Moscow Mannon who De Bromhead is training currently.

DRIVE ON LOCKY
This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.
   
ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

DRIVE ON LOCKY
This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.
   
ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

DRIVE ON LOCKY
This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)

Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes

Eshtiaal: Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)

Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!
UDO’S CHOICE
The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

Added: the Tramore run last April - finished 2nd - does catch the eye as Vasco Du Mee (3rd) has won a handicap off 107 for Gordon Elliott and Fast Exit (4th) has since won two races for Eoin Doyle at Downpatrick. Horse has run nowhere near this level since and last time out the usual “tp”! became “tb1” with blinkers fitted for the first time and horse made running for the first time ever but no really different result (45l 9/18). On the positive side, Enright, who was on board last April, rides again. The snippet of course form says he “can” win but it’s obviously taking a huge amount on trust. Betfair SP job maybe.

BALLYFINBOY
A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.
Added: horse’s previous wins were directly as a result of “running into form” and he hasn’t run well in 9 subsequent starts since that April Tramore chasing run which, incidentally, only featured 5 runners. On previous wins trainer always said he preferred better ground.

Weight stop-a-train selection: Mini Vic
Saver (save us all, lord have mercy): The Bold Beckey
Free Christmas: Udo’s Choice (no relation to snake oil salesman)

Agree with Mini Vic as selection especially with a reasonable 7lb claimer easing her burden.  Value at 12/1 with bet563

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)

Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

UDO’S CHOICE
The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

Added: the Tramore run last April - finished 2nd - does catch the eye as Vasco Du Mee (3rd) has won a handicap off 107 for Gordon Elliott and Fast Exit (4th) has since won two races for Eoin Doyle at Downpatrick. Horse has run nowhere near this level since and last time out the usual “tp”! became “tb1” with blinkers fitted for the first time and horse made running for the first time ever but no really different result (45l 9/18). On the positive side, Enright, who was on board last April, rides again. The snippet of course form says he “can” win but it’s obviously taking a huge amount on trust. Betfair SP job maybe.

BALLYFINBOY
A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.
Added: horse’s previous wins were directly as a result of “running into form” and he hasn’t run well in 9 subsequent starts since that April Tramore chasing run which, incidentally, only featured 5 runners. On previous wins trainer always said he preferred better ground.

Weight stop-a-train selection: Mini Vic
Saver (save us all, lord have mercy): The Bold Beckey
Free Christmas: Udo’s Choice (no relation to snake oil salesman)

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)

Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!


was keen to have all the posts up so that post mortem is easier....this thread may be bombarded later with earlier "moderated" posts, so apologies.

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the .... off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)

Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and DR is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and DR is entrusted with probable stable-selected (Eshtiaal)

ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the .... off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)


Eshtiaal -cost £46,000 out of Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory from serious shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if GE can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the jobs often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and DR is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes

Laddies pruning Mini Vic price sharply.  Now just 9/2.  They knowwwwwwwwwwwww!!!

great thread this one, well done all that put the effort in, but one thing strikes me as very strange is why wildman/walter was not consulted to see what the combined forces thought of this event.....

Eshtiaal a N/R.
Best of luck with your selection.

sorry about the multiple posts...trying to post since 8pm last night

Laddies paying a extra place on the 3.10 Tramore, ie 1st 5 e/w if 16runners

BUTAIRIS  280  IR NICE SEE  NORTHERN  LOCAL MAN GET ANOTHER WINNER

intresting experiment ..

Good thread lads.
Managed to back the winner 11.95 ir after reading it in a race i wouldnt have bothered in recently.

Took 3 from the write ups and the one i had most interest in was the winner depending on how he was fairing 3 or 4 out as he could have been anything with hdb persivering with him almost 10 yo.

Off just 95 had to be worth an interest once he was put in the race.

Looked well beaten just after i backed him and there might be more to come with more experiance .

More of this type of thread in everybodys interest imo

who had the winner, lads?

YOUR BEST MATE WORKRIDER

CORPORATE BOX MASSIVE EYECTACHER UNDER schoolRIDE FROM  DE SPLAINE  IN 230 TRAMORE

Wonks analysed the first two home; no wonder they didn't make the shortlist

Good analysis Workrider,you didn,t dismiss him at all, being honest he would have been way down my list.

Post mortem:

Budtairis: some small money around for him earlier (from 12’s and 14’s) and he proved up to the task. At least we didn’t dismiss him as his breeding, one decent spin over hurdles (albeit three years ago!) and the positive mention to HDeB.

Budtairis
A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95.

Added: a very modest pointer for Brian Hamilton all the owner’s novenas now lie on Henry’s shoulders. Off the track for over 2 years a comeback run at Fairyhouse qualifies him for a mark of 95 which gives him a chance at some stage. Could win for local stable with good record and the market might offer a clue but hard to get away from woeful pointing form at 5 & 6. They’re persevering because he’s a full-brother to six-time winner Moscow Mannon who De Bromhead is training currently.

Indian Fairy (second and looked all-over winner) wasn’t dismissed outright but I couldn’t fancy her. The soft ground, her lower hurdling mark and Doyle’s track record counted.

Perrie Hill (third): “He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.” They took early 5’s and 6’s and he was the best backed horse in the race but remains a maiden.


The Bold Beckey made a hames of the last in front and would have gone close but probably without winning. Mini Vic ran a strange race and was only beaten a neck into fourth having looked likely to finish last after three from home. She’s been ridden like this in the past so I’m not sure if she/I was unlucky. Udo’s Choice actually ran quite well and threatened to be involved on the downhill run for home. He’s very average and just maybe the soft ground was against the son of Presenting so I’d give him another chance if he runs here again.

thanks to all who contributed in any way.

OZZ  THIS HAS BEEN CRACKING INFORMATIVE THREAD PLEASE DONT RUIN IT

IM JUST GLAD SEE OWNER WINNING FEW RACES TURNED DOWN AT LEAST TWICE OVER 250000£ FOR MOSCOW MANNON TO FOLLOW THE DREAM OF THE SMALL OWNER SO FAIR PLAY AND STILL THINK BRIAN HAMILTON UNLUCKY TO LOSE THESE HORSES  BUT DE BROMHEAD IS DOING WELL  SO MOST HAPPY FOR ALL INVOLVED

GARY OBRIEN TIPPED BUTAIRIS UP @14/1 IN HIS COLUMN

Am not ruining it,just pointing out the obvious.  If anyone other than Wonks had been analysing the first two home, more weight would have been placed on their judgement.  It was just unlucky the way the allocation worked out.

Nice job, RA.

Excellent thread lads, well done all.

ox im afraid your mistaken re workrider.his views are very well respected on the irish forum by all(except you it seems)

By all?  He is by far the most ridiculed man on here, by a long shot.  Wake up.

Have you not seen the farce that is the Xmas competition thread?

Is there any thread free of your poison?
A good idea of a thread where some put a bit of work into it,most enjoyed it,instead you bring your drivel onto it.

ur a sad individual.he puts up 150 of his own money  and says hes flexible re what race meeting ,format etc.??. other people then tried to hijack it....hes by far the best paddock judge i ever came across.hes forgotten more about horses than most of us will ever know..

Will ye go away he is only an auld Jackeen.  Top class paddock judge me arse....there is zero evidene of that.

OZZ FFS YOU SAID YOU WONT RUIN THREAD

ROYAL ACADEMY AND REST ALL PUT IN HARD WORK   SO WHY NOT JUST LET THREAD BE POSITIVE

I have already complimented RA on his organisation and concept.

What do you expect, bouquets of flowers all round?

Ozymandius    13 Dec 14 14:47 
Wonks analysed the first two home; no wonder they didn't make the shortlist

Fair to say this experiment went t!ts up

Pre fat, I would be honoured if you could join the enlightened group of punters supporting my chosen Charity in the Xmas competition.

oz, you let your poison blind you..i can tell you wr has forgot more about racing than most..and he is indeed a very good paddock judge..you would not know as you don't go racing..as a lot on here who talk a good game but don't go racing..but act like by watching on tv they know what needs to be known...the only way to find anything out about this game is oncourse..good or bad..

I grew up at the races, Tony (mainly Flat) and come from a very strong and long lineage of good judges of stock and horses.  It may be genetic or perhaps I had a very good Tutor.  I wouldn't consider having a decent wedge on a beast without first being at the track to press flesh (aka hob nob with connections) and inspect said beast with my own, considered eye.

I like to have a gander meself Oz.

(aka hob nob with connections)

Our OZ has a fine grasp of the English  language it must be said.

A great great thread that I hope will be repeated.

It is also a perfect example of the hidden gems not being noticed for the lack of booms.
Pa Lapsy did it again,apart from his good write up he slipped in a strong recommendation for Miss Faithful,duly triumphed at 6/1

Great thread to read, thanks to all involved

Norma ,aka hob nob with connections ,now you're really taking the BISCUIT ....

Ozymandius   



CLASSIC,he pulls this oul chestnut out anytime he is under pressure and every single person on here knows it is pure and utter fantasy island stuff


Date Joined:   01 Jul 11 
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  13 Dec 14 18:14 
Joined:   01 Jul 11      | Topic/replies: 12,850  | Blogger: Ozymandius's blog   



I grew up at the races, Tony (mainly Flat) and come from a very strong and long lineage of good judges of stock and horses.  It may be genetic or perhaps I had a very good Tutor.  I wouldn't consider having a decent wedge on a beast without first being at the track to press flesh (aka hob nob with connections) and inspect said beast with my own, considered eye.

Thanks Wildman,she did well as she got in a fair old state before the off,no surprise to see her at Thurles at some stage,more races in her but a last minute job with her antics.

Just a follow up note on Zerkaya.
Went off 50+ on the exchanges,held up in last,ridden before turning in but made up ground,eased off before 2 out. Quite a pleasing comeback in that class,his lack of gears was evident again but think Limerick will be the plan again if he gets his ground.

honourable mention for norn who did mention the winner beforehand and is a very good judge and very modest.

will try something similar for the coming weekend & see how it goes. probably need a team of ten or so to break down the task. no substitute for putting in the time and I found you really had to review every horse before giving an opinion that you can stand over. having a second opinion very helpful in this regard.