Tramore Experiment

BAD WEATHER THURS FRI  MEANS  ID BE KEEN TO SPEND TIME AND STUDY  BUT HAPPY TO LET ANY POSTER TAKE MY PLACE AS LOT BETTER JUDGES ON HERE STREETS AHEAD OF ME 

AND LETS HAVE ONE THREAD WITHOUT THE USUAL slobbering

ROYAL ACADEMY ONLY USE ME IF YOU REAL STUCK  AND GOOD LUCK

ill have a go lads with 3 horses..im working nights but ill do my best..

five on board.....just one more?

thanks to everyone so far...one way or another I will dole out the horses later this evening

Great thread lads,Will keep an eye on proceedings with interest.

anyone take norn's place before 9pm when I allocate gee gees? just three each-shouldn't be over taxing....................

if theres another wants to do it?(pa?)  ill give way..im easy either way

ok ill get working tomoro

I can't wait to see the outcome of this!!!

MINI VIC
One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

THE BOLD BECKEY
One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.

BALLYFINBOY
A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.

PERRIE HILL   runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here.last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit.he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths.live chance.
ESHTIALL   what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will preceed a win if theres going to be a win)

Whats the verdict, RA?  We will watch this one tomorrow with heightened interest!

Well done to all (2 notable and predictable exceptions) for making an effort with presentation, which makes such a difference.

great read this..welldone to all..

I think Borussia is a fantastic each way bet in second race, I like the look of perrie hill in 1 55, maybe a few quid on company calling in 2 25.

Good luck all.

Leahy has a good record at tramore.. always worth following at any price

Well done all,interesting to see Russells effort today in the Giggy silks,I like Beckys Star and Borussia myself but it's wide open,course form a big plus here imho.

certain posting issues for some reason (altho I guess why), hopefully this works...

Claire Pet:
A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire Pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonal after his early exit in Clonmel.

MINI VIC
One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

Added: won a Thurles maiden hurdle but needed to drop 11lbs to 98 before she collected her first handicap hurdle although she did need a wind operation to return to her best so could easily be ahead of the handicapper - has even run well since on marks of 104 and 108. I thought she ran a cracker on her seasonal reappearance at Navan against far better rivals and a mark of 106 gives her a serious chance tomorrow. My idea of horse with best chance and price might be okay.

Halling’s Treasure
Hallings  Treasure a 4 yo been asked to give weight to all bar two of these , been dropped 10lb since march ..His one win came in a 12 fur race in England for Balding , bought for good money ,unusual for Giggy to buy off the flat ..First time out here showed up really well and finished 2nd to a well regarded one of Mullins ,his form has dropped alarmingly since  that run  ,imo and he has become a liability , he's been beaten over 118 lts in his last four completed starts ,and has also fallen over hurdles at Wexford  ..Maybe the return of Davy , who got him jumping if nothing else might help his cause , distance wise he should have no problem ..I feel a lot of this fellows problems are in his head , they have tried headgear to no avail ,but I do know they thought a lot of this fellow ,plus the fact they are perservering with him is worth nothing ..Having said all that , can see this fellow run a big race tomorrow.....

Added: difficult to sum up but a mark of 109 and 4lbs age allowance gives this horse a chance if he ever turns up and reproduces past form in maiden hurdles. However, five losses starting at 9/4 or less tells its own sorry tale and has already failed to land a soft 2m maiden here last April. Impossible to back and likely to start short again with the popular Youghal man on board. He may make the market.


INDIAN FAIRY
This mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.
Added: they persevered with this lassie in the summer until she won a maiden hurdle here over the trip in August on good ground and after a heavy ground win in a mares’ beginners’ chase it seems she prefers the softer option. Doyle has expressed the view that his suspects Tramore might be too sharp for her and she has that bad fall and two recent poor handicap hurdling runs to overcome. The Waterford punters will probably go for her which may offer value elsewhere.

PERRIE HILL   
runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here. last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit. he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths .live chance.
Added: still a maiden after 10 hurdling starts (14 in all) and a record of blinkers and cheek pieces adding to three handicap hurdle seconds might tell its own tale-all off lower marks than today’s 101. He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.

THE BOLD BECKEY
One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.
Added: she looked a mid-80’s mare for much of the last year and the question is: can she continue her advancement on what is still a decent mark of 99. The form of her races, particularly her C&D win in October reads well and she couldn’t have been in better form. A seven-pound claim takes her weight below 11-00. Likely to be close to favourite and possibly worthy of a saver.

Shaiyzar:
Even taking into account it is 27lb better off(inc claim) for 25L and seemed to have sweated up to me in the race won The Bould Beckey,he finished weakly and has been well beaten since. Dismissed.
Added: flopped for Halford and wore all the paraphernalia-didn’t help. Presumably cost tuppence-hapenny and will be doing well to score over hurdles off an already too-high mark of 96 (although it has dropped from 100 already). Was a few quid about for it on its handicap at Clonmel bow two runs ago but was well behind The Bold Beckey (a 12lb swing shouldn’t count) and since beaten out of sight at Fairyhouse. Probably see some local money around on Saturday but he doesn’t rate for me.

Budtairis
A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95.

Added: a very modest pointer for Brian Hamilton all the owner’s novenas now lie on Henry’s shoulders. Off the track for over 2 years a comeback run at Fairyhouse qualifies him for a mark of 95 which gives him a chance at some stage. Could win for local stable with good record and the market might offer a clue but hard to get away from woeful pointing form at 5 & 6. They’re persevering because he’s a full-brother to six-time winner Moscow Mannon who De Bromhead is training currently.


DRIVE ON LOCKY
This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.
   
ESHTIALL   
what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

UDO’S CHOICE
The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

Added: the Tramore run last April - finished 2nd - does catch the eye as Vasco Du Mee (3rd) has won a handicap off 107 for Gordon Elliott and Fast Exit (4th) has since won two races for Eoin Doyle at Downpatrick. Horse has run nowhere near this level since and last time out the usual “tp”! became “tb1” with blinkers fitted for the first time and horse made running for the first time ever but no really different result (45l 9/18). On the positive side, Enright, who was on board last April, rides again. The snippet of course form says he “can” win but it’s obviously taking a huge amount on trust. Betfair SP job maybe.

BALLYFINBOY
A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.
Added: horse’s previous wins were directly as a result of “running into form” and he hasn’t run well in 9 subsequent starts since that April Tramore chasing run which, incidentally, only featured 5 runners. On previous wins trainer always said he preferred better ground.

Weight stop-a-train selection: Mini Vic
Saver (save us all, lord have mercy): The Bold Beckey
Free Christmas: Udo’s Choice (no relation to snake oil salesman)

Claire Pet:

A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire Pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonal after his early exit in Clonmel.

MINI VIC

One of five course and distance winners in the race and from a stable in good form this season.  Racing off a mark of 106 here but has never won off higher than a mark of 98.  She has three lifetime wins – twice at Tramore and the other at Thurles – all on soft/heavy or heavy ground so the expected ground will suit.  Ran well on 23 Nov at Navan after a break since May and was beaten 10.5L in a grade C Hurdle.  She carried a mere 9st 3lbs compared with 11.11 on Saturday which may be asking a lot of a small mare.  Many of her best runs have been in the months of December, January and February.  Overall she must have a sound chance given her liking for the track, the stable form and the anticipated easy ground.  The concerns are the large weight and lifetime high h’cap mark.

Added: won a Thurles maiden hurdle but needed to drop 11lbs to 98 before she collected her first handicap hurdle although she did need a wind operation to return to her best so could easily be ahead of the handicapper - has even run well since on marks of 104 and 108. I thought she ran a cracker on her seasonal reappearance at Navan against far better rivals and a mark of 106 gives her a serious chance tomorrow. My idea of horse with best chance and price might be okay.

Halling’s Treasure

Hallings  Treasure a 4 yo been asked to give weight to all bar two of these , been dropped 10lb since march ..His one win came in a 12 fur race in England for Balding , bought for good money ,unusual for Giggy to buy off the flat ..First time out here showed up really well and finished 2nd to a well regarded one of Mullins ,his form has dropped alarmingly since  that run  ,imo and he has become a liability , he's been beaten over 118 lts in his last four completed starts ,and has also fallen over hurdles at Wexford  ..Maybe the return of Davy , who got him jumping if nothing else might help his cause , distance wise he should have no problem ..I feel a lot of this fellows problems are in his head , they have tried headgear to no avail ,but I do know they thought a lot of this fellow ,plus the fact they are perservering with him is worth nothing ..Having said all that , can see this fellow run a big race tomorrow.....

Added: difficult to sum up but a mark of 109 and 4lbs age allowance gives this horse a chance if he ever turns up and reproduces past form in maiden hurdles. However, five losses starting at 9/4 or less tells its own sorry tale and has already failed to land a soft 2m maiden here last April. Impossible to back and likely to start short again with the popular Youghal man on board. He may make the market.


INDIAN FAIRY

mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.

Added: they persevered with this lassie in the summer until she won a maiden hurdle here over the trip in August on good ground and after a heavy ground win in a mares’ beginners’ chase it seems she prefers the softer option. Doyle has expressed the view that his suspects Tramore might be too sharp for her and she has that bad fall and two recent poor handicap hurdling runs to overcome. The Waterford punters will probably go for her which may offer value elsewhere.

PERRIE HILL
   
runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here. last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit. he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths .live chance.
Added: still a maiden after 10 hurdling starts (14 in all) and a record of blinkers and cheek pieces adding to three handicap hurdle seconds might tell its own tale-all off lower marks than today’s 101. He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.

THE BOLD BECKEY

One of five course and distance winners in the race.  Won by 5L in an extremely modest contest at Clonmel on 13 Nov where the trainer was quoted after the race as saying he thought she was a certainty if she handled the heavy ground.  Raised 8lbs to a career high of 99 for that success.  The mare is set to carry 11.4 which is way beyond her weight range of 9.8 to 10.9 in her past twelve runs.   Her form has been very consistent in her five runs this season in which she has won two.  Aside from this mare, the stable has had just one other winner from 34 runners this season.  A rise of 15lbs since the earlier of her two wins may be enough to anchor this game performer.
Added: she looked a mid-80’s mare for much of the last year and the question is: can she continue her advancement on what is still a decent mark of 99. The form of her races, particularly her C&D win in October reads well and she couldn’t have been in better form. A seven-pound claim takes her weight below 11-00. Likely to be close to favourite and possibly worthy of a saver.

Shaiyzar:

Even taking into account it is 27lb better off(inc claim) for 25L and seemed to have sweated up to me in the race won The Bould Beckey,he finished weakly and has been well beaten since. Dismissed.
Added: flopped for Halford and wore all the paraphernalia-didn’t help. Presumably cost tuppence-hapenny and will be doing well to score over hurdles off an already too-high mark of 96 (although it has dropped from 100 already). Was a few quid about for it on its handicap at Clonmel bow two runs ago but was well behind The Bold Beckey (a 12lb swing shouldn’t count) and since beaten out of sight at Fairyhouse. Probably see some local money around on Saturday but he doesn’t rate for me.

Budtairis

A 9 yo having had only 3 runs on track ,makes you think he's had his problems , in total hes been beaten 94 lts in those ..So not a lot to go on ..He had two quick runs way back in 2011 , including finishing 2nd in a hurdle race @ Downpatrick were he was beaten 8 lts ,he recently returned to the track at Fairyhouse ,ridden by J J Burke and ran a reasonable sort of race behind Outlander ..Sure to have benefited from that run and his trainer is very adapt at placing his horses..This fellow would have to improve and has a rating of 95.

Added: a very modest pointer for Brian Hamilton all the owner’s novenas now lie on Henry’s shoulders. Off the track for over 2 years a comeback run at Fairyhouse qualifies him for a mark of 95 which gives him a chance at some stage. Could win for local stable with good record and the market might offer a clue but hard to get away from woeful pointing form at 5 & 6. They’re persevering because he’s a full-brother to six-time winner Moscow Mannon who De Bromhead is training currently.


DRIVE ON LOCKY

This will be his first run for J.R. Barry having been previously trained by Philip Fenton. He is another course and distance winner who made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2 miles at Clonmel last week.  He should come on for that run but on all known form he appears to be a bit too high in the handicap to be competitive in this race. A watching brief on this fella would be the safest option.

Added: it’s not at all uncommon to see a horse fail to carry a penalty and then bounce back on a subsequent start-DOL won on his second last start off 91. However, you couldn’t say he’s unexposed after taking 15 attempts to win a low-grade handicap hurdle and Barry seems tasked with the job of trying to keep a ghost career alive for P Fenton. My guess is a mark of 97 is 7lbs too high.
   
ESHTIALL   

what can be said about this one from a form point of view?  won a flat handicap on the snaff off 85 over 1m4 at yarmouth in may 2013(6/4f) so it has abilty.its last 3 runs in maiden hurdles it has been beaten a total of 213 lengths.we all know the drill there.given its connections im sure theres a plan for this 4 year old gelding.the market will tell us whether saturday is the day(i very much doubt it though,id imagine a moderately promising run midfield will precede a win if theres going to be a win)
Added: cost £46,000 out of Brian Meehan’s in September and this is first family member to jump hurdles in living memory-Shadwell family. This horse (95) could possibly soon have a lower mark over hurdles than on the flat and if Elliott can sweeten him up he could contest nice pots on the flat next season. Market will inform but even the plots often need handicapping experience before they can win. Jockey booking suggests “not today” and Davy is entrusted with probable stable-selected-a three-wheeler with bad brakes!

UDO’S CHOICE

The first thing I do when I see a horse trained by P. Rothwell is get my biggest pencil and draw a line through it. This is a trainer I have very little confidence in and his 2014/2015 Irish N.H statistics read 0 winners from 175 runners.  However, UDO’S CHOCE does have a few snippets of form most notably, last April, over course and distance when he was second to Try it Sometime, a race in which a few winners have since emerged.  That was a decent run under the circumstances but it is hard to make a case for him.

Added: the Tramore run last April - finished 2nd - does catch the eye as Vasco Du Mee (3rd) has won a handicap off 107 for Gordon Elliott and Fast Exit (4th) has since won two races for Eoin Doyle at Downpatrick. Horse has run nowhere near this level since and last time out the usual “tp”! became “tb1” with blinkers fitted for the first time and horse made running for the first time ever but no really different result (45l 9/18). On the positive side, Enright, who was on board last April, rides again. The snippet of course form says he “can” win but it’s obviously taking a huge amount on trust. Betfair SP job maybe.

BALLYFINBOY

A career record of 2 wins from 35 races.  Rated 109 over fences and just 89 over hurdles.  While he does act on soft ground the trainer was quoted in Nov 12 as saying he is a much better horse on better ground.  The trainer has had 3 wins from 40 runners this season.  One positive for the animal is a good run at Tramore last April when beaten just 3.25L in a conditions chase achieving a RP topspeed of 121 – well ahead of anything else in the field over the past twelve months.  The modest hurdle form is a concern in the context of this race.
Added: horse’s previous wins were directly as a result of “running into form” and he hasn’t run well in 9 subsequent starts since that April Tramore chasing run which, incidentally, only featured 5 runners. On previous wins trainer always said he preferred better ground.

Weight stop-a-train selection: Mini Vic
Saver (save us all, lord have mercy): The Bold Beckey
Free Christmas: Udo’s Choice (no relation to snake oil salesman)

Claire Pet:
A very modest second in a 6yo point maiden (“a modicum of ability”) in spring 2013 the unusually named gelding stepped up his form when sent under Rules earlier this year. Starting a rank outsider on his first two starts in maiden hurdles he ran reasonably well and had sufficient form to start just 11/2 to win a very weak 2.5m Clonmel maiden hurdle on heavy ground last February after which he was rated 109. A first spin in a handicap at Gowran one month later over the same trip and similar heavy ground saw him run no race at all and he was tailed off. Nothing emerged to win since from the Clonmel race suggesting Claire Pet’s hurdling mark needs to drop.

A first spin over fences in May (24L 6th and broke blood vessel) was followed by his first run of the current season in a 2m beginners’ chase where he unseated at the third. When he won the trainer suggested trips in excess of 2.5m and better ground (than heavy) would see the horse in a better light.

Trainer is relative newcomer to success under rules and the hat-tick handicap chasing winner Foritsa is his only other winner.

Verdict: on what we have seen and heard to date this horse’s best chance might be a staying handicap chase when he has more experience and two runs to date suggest a mark in the 90’s. For now, looks a little high in the handicap and it’s essentially his seasonal after his early exit in Clonmel.

INDIAN FAIRY
This mare is going back over hurdles having taken a crashing fall over fences last time out.  Her handicap mark is 10lbs higher over fences (114) and she is now going back over hurdles off a mark of 104. She is trained by Eoin Doyle who has an outstanding record at the track, 22 winners from 132 runners with a level stake profit of over €9.00 over the last 5 years.  Potentially well treated this previous Course and Distance winner has been running consistently very well of late.   In her last eleven runs she has been ridden by fairly inexperienced claimers.  If an established jockey is booked to ride I would consider that to be a major positive. I can see her being a potential favourite for this race but I think she has her work cut out to reverse the form with PERRIE HILL (2ND)  and The Bold Becky(1ST) on their run at Tramore over Course and Distance on the 9th October.  That was INDIAN FAIRY’S last run over hurdles where she finished 7th and she has 13 lengths to find on the 2nd placed PERRIE HILL who I consider her biggest danger. The Bold Becky has won again since and has taken a nice hike in the weights. Although she has improved for her switch to fences I am not sure INDIAN FAIRY can transfer that form back to hurdles.
Added: they persevered with this lassie in the summer until she won a maiden hurdle here over the trip in August on good ground and after a heavy ground win in a mares’ beginners’ chase it seems she prefers the softer option. Doyle has expressed the view that his suspects Tramore might be too sharp for her and she has that bad fall and two recent poor handicap hurdling runs to overcome. The Waterford punters will probably go for her which may offer value elsewhere.

PERRIE HILL   
runs here off 101 with 5lb claimer so effectively 96.that brings him right into it here. last two times he ran he was favourite albeit not winning he ran with credit. he has finished second 3 times out of last 5 runs on marks from 98/101.and in his last 3 runs has been beaten by between 3 and 5 lengths .live chance.
Added: still a maiden after 10 hurdling starts (14 in all) and a record of blinkers and cheek pieces adding to three handicap hurdle seconds might tell its own tale-all off lower marks than today’s 101. He has form matching the best here but you need a decent price to compensate for the doubts.